EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

Veni

Thanks for sharing those positive thoughts.I hope USCIS decides to do it that way. Do you think it would make sense for them to do a big move like 5-6 months in the next VB and grab additional demand for guardbanding since they are anyhow gonna possibly do the retrogression in Dec VB.

gcseeker,
IMHO, unless they have quarterly spillover planned already, what ever DOS/USCIS have in mind for EB2IC for FY2012, should happen in the next two VB. If not they can not hold on to 15JUL2007 for EB2IC for long.

[codesmith]

i see the expectations rising again like mercury during indian summer... chil out bro's and sister's of those bro's... every time expectations are high, the VB is going bad...

This reminds me of childhood memory.. we used to say while watching cricket "bol India harega" and then India would win .!!

Just wondering... if USCIS can take a legal baits on PDs .. it would be fun to see who's winning and making money ...?

[veni001]

This reminds me of childhood memory.. we used to say while watching cricket "bol India harega" and then India would win .!!

Just wondering... if USCIS can take a legal baits on PDs .. it would be fun to see who's winning and making money ...?

codesmith,
No doubt, DOS/USCIS all the time.

[cbpds1]

you seemed to cross the total of 100%

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[qesehmk]

veni thanks. Corrected.

Q,
I know you mean by March 2012.

[cbpds1]

[QUOTE=druvraj;9799]Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
CO will not be able to screw your life

[pch053]

gcseeker,
IMHO, unless they have quarterly spillover planned already, what ever DOS/USCIS have in mind for EB2IC for FY2012, should happen in the next two VB. If not they can not hold on to 15JUL2007 for EB2IC for long.

Veni,
I totally agree with you. I think it's a bit to early to jump on any conclusion but based on the trackitt trends for the first couple of days, there seems to be no indication of any quarterly spillover. So far, there are only 1 - 2 approvals and both seems to be older PDs (EB3->EB2 porting cases) which probably weren't approved last year because all the visas were used up. So, we might be back to the FB visa date trend where forward movement happens until Dec followed by retrogression in Jan bulletin.

[qesehmk]

druvraj - i (and many others on this forum) would've done a BTM like you mention below But we are at somebody else's mercy unfortunately.

Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.

you seemed to cross the total of 100%

If you read carefully, the total is 100%. But as you can see the way I phrased it puts the probability of exactly 3 months movement at ZERO!

[cbpds1]

Sorry was multitasking !!

If you read carefully, the total is 100%. But as you can see the way I phrased it puts the probability of exactly 3 months movement at ZERO!

[nishant2200]

Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.

The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

[veni001]

The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.

Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[qblogfan]

I seriously doubt they intend to approve the cases that become current in this month. I only saw 2 approvals on EB2-C. I suspect they will not approve more than several hundreds cases in this month. Quarterly spillover has very small possibility.

Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.

[qblogfan]

Agree. I think it's possible DOS wants to move PD slowly to make it convenient for USCIS. It's kind of difficult to send receipts/EAD/AP if 20k people rush into their system. I think 5k-10k per month is reasonable.

The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

[nishant2200]

Agree. I think it's possible DOS wants to move PD slowly to make it convenient for USCIS. It's kind of difficult to send receipts/EAD/AP if 20k people rush into their system. I think 5k-10k per month is reasonable.

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

[TeddyKoochu]

I seriously doubt they intend to approve the cases that become current in this month. I only saw 2 approvals on EB2-C. I suspect they will not approve more than several hundreds cases in this month.

The early approval trend does not seem to be great on Trackitt either, there are EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 approvals, the EB2-I approvals are for PWMB's who filed in the previous months or older cases. No one in the range from Apr 15 to Jul 15th has been approved yet for EB2 I/C let’s wait and watch. Also it will be interesting to see the approval rates of EB2 ROW and EB1 this month.

[qblogfan]

Last time 300k took them almost 1-2 years to process. I think maybe 10k per month is a comfortable number for USCIS.

Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[qblogfan]

yes, one EB2-C case with PD March 15 2007 and the other one is PD April 17 2007. I don't see huge approvals on mitbbs. We have to see what will happen later this week.

The early approval trend does not seem to be great on Trackitt either, there are EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 approvals, the EB2-I approvals are for PWMB's who filed in the previous months or older cases. No one in the range from Apr 15 to Jul 15th has been approved yet for EB2 I/C let’s wait and watch. Also it will be interesting to see the approval rates of EB2 ROW and EB1 this month.

[qblogfan]

yes, I agree. Last time CO said that he was planning to move PD to July in the last bulliten of FY 2011, but USCIS stopped him and claimed they found large number of old cases. I think maybe CO intends to move PD faster, but USCIS does not want him to do that. It's a battle.

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

[soggadu]

Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.

N.... I am seeing inflation of hopes again....

[veni001]

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

yes, I agree. Last time CO said that he was planning to move PD to July in the last bulliten of FY 2011, but USCIS stopped him and claimed they found large number of old cases. I think maybe CO intends to move PD faster, but USCIS does not want him to do that. It's a battle.

"July 2007" is the "best" date ever previously reached for EB2IC to-date. So let's see what DOS/USCIS going to do when they pass that best ever date, one long jump ("BTM") or multiple shot jumps followed by "TBM".

[evoori]

Isn't 140/12 ~ 12K should be normal monthly workload for USCIS.. They are used to getting 100k applications on first day/week for H1Bs and issuing receipt notices to them.. I know it is little different but I think workload should not be much of concern.. (truly speaking I want them to do BTM for my own sake)..

Last time 300k took them almost 1-2 years to process. I think maybe 10k per month is a comfortable number for USCIS.

[soggadu]

"July 2007" is the "best" date ever previously reached for EB2IC to-date. So let's see what DOS/USCIS going to do when they pass that best ever date, one long jump ("BTM") or multiple shot jumps followed by "TBM".

veni...the usual practice once you have your best date ever... is to propose for long term relation ;-) = take in lot of apps(responsibilities) and process one by one ...

[veni001]

Isn't 140/12 ~ 12K should be normal monthly workload for USCIS.. They are used to getting 100k applications on first day/week for H1Bs and issuing receipt notices to them.. I know it is little different but I think workload should not be much of concern.. (truly speaking I want them to do BTM for my own sake)..

veni...the usual practice once you have your best date ever... is to propose for long term relation ;-) = take in lot of apps(responsibilities) and process one by one ...

Agree, sooner or later they have to do BTM for EB2IC, assuming similar to past couple of years SOFAD trend for this FY.

It would be better for agencies as well as for the applicants if they do it beginning of the FY as opposed to beginning of spillover season.

[shaumack]

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

Yes agree, and I think we should be blamed for it. We should let USCIS alone and stop creating pressure throuh SRs and Senators, but then wait is so long for us that as soon as we see 'C' against our PD, we go crazy and goo-goo-gaga and just want to get GC asap.