EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gc_usa]

Guys, this was just now posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...54972175087536
Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

[10102007]

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

I too see it that way. But as the other folks have mentioned, it will be a challenge to relax and not think about Friday. I wish that at the end of current FY (ie. Sep 2012), the dates would at least be at June 2008.

[nishant2200]

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

Yes, this can be a theory too.

My only solace is as gcseeker said, the wording by CO in the last VB did sound like he wants to build pipeline, and that movement was not the last, but will continue.

Now only thing we can do is propose theories, try to read their minds, and spend restless nights till friday. And god forbid, if bulletin dont come out on friday, then till tuesday, a weekend and a monday to pass in between.

[gcseeker]

Nishant

I guess am not alone in feeling this way .Though would not wish these sleepless nights on anybody.

Exactly. Already had a restless one last night.

10102007

I hope it moves till June2008 and gives releif to many more.

I too see it that way. But as the other folks have mentioned, it will be a challenge to relax and not think about Friday. I wish that at the end of current FY (ie. Sep 2012), the dates would at least be at June 2008.

This forum is an godsend and I say this sincerely from the bottom of my heart.This is the picture I am always reminded of when I browse this forum.

It is just time to wait now...I guess.

[Monica12]

10102007, love your new avatar... glad to see another animal lover on this forum
Gcseeker, btw I loved your old avatar... but love the Buddha too.
Geez...everyone is changing their avatars with the new thread... hmmm..maybe I should change mine too.
Guys, remember...Soggadu's golden words ... aya to aya..baki saab maya...let's hope for the best and leave the rest !!!

[10102007]

10102007, love your new avatar... glad to see another animal lover on this forum

Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.

[Monica12]

Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.

OMG ! Same story here..* tears *
I also buy tons of stuff for mine everytime, forever indebted to them..aren't we ?

[Monica12]

arreee.. guys , please chodo na ( please leave it ). Waise hi Nov VB ka itna tension hai( so much tension in anticipation of Nov Vb)..... Poor Nishant, Gc seeker, 10102007 and me are getting sleepless nights.... Soggadu's changed his avatar from dancing prince to traumatized James Bond
rahem karo USCIS ( mercy please USCIS, before we all go crazy )

[qblogfan]

Tears!!! My dear friend, I hope you can get your GC ASAP and visit your parents more often! I feel so sad to read your story! I haven't been back to China for four years and I am suffering everyday, but I have to wait for my GC before travelling back.

Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.

[imdeng]

Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.

Lastly, Q - you have done an admirable job of keeping this place conducive to a free and frank discussion without much noise or hate. People are just angry and frustrated and sometimes it comes out as trolling/flaming/hate/etc. - don't let it get to you.

[Kanmani]

imdeng

I am not a tech person. But I use this shortcut to open the last page in IE . Right click the bookmark , goto properties, goto the line where it stores as link, change the page number to 100 or 200 save. Pls check with firefox , I checked it seem like working.

[Spectator]

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.

imdeng,

That is something you can set for yourself.

When you are logged in, go to Settings (top right of the page).

Choose General Setting on the left hand side.

Set Thread Display Mode to Linear - Newest First.

Voila!

PS Even quicker is Forum Actions - General Settings

[nishant2200]

U are smart. Was just about to say that change the page number to a very high number that dont exist. However u might miss out on the good stuff in between. It's your preference.

imdeng

I am not a tech person. But I use this shortcut to open the last page in IE . Right click the bookmark , goto properties, goto the line where it stores as link, change the page number to 100 or 200 save. Pls check with firefox , I checked it seem like working.

[skpanda]

Should we be expecting USCIS I485 inventory around Oct 1st week?

We saw one on 1st Oct 2010.

[krishnav]

Sorry, just realized its a repost..plz ignore.


Hi indeng,

At the end of the url, where it says /page1 or /page2, etc, change your book mark to /page1000. That way it will always take you to the max page. It will take a while for us to hit 1000pages anyways.

Example,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-2012/page1000

Hope this helps.

Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.

Lastly, Q - you have done an admirable job of keeping this place conducive to a free and frank discussion without much noise or hate. People are just angry and frustrated and sometimes it comes out as trolling/flaming/hate/etc. - don't let it get to you.

[tackle]

Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?.

Bookmark this page.

[10102007]

Was checking out a few other forums and the general consensus is that the movement will be 0 or 1 month. I hope that it is atleast 1 month. It will bring relief to a few of us and give hope to the rest.

But trying hard not to expect anything.

[gcseeker]

10102007

Yup buddy have been following the chatter around the net as well and most of them are expecting something similar ( 0 to 1 month ) movement based on their lawyer perceptions about USCIS wanting to hold the line and not do any retrogression.It will be very painful if the above does happen but have seen this movie play out many times before.

I tend to imagine USCIS as an conservative football coach whose team has the ball in the 4th quarter at 3 mins and instead of trying to march down the field will try to punt the ball and will play prevent defense .Then in the postgame conference the coach says " Well you know our defense did not stop them(meaning no proper estimation of nubmers between DOS and USCIS) and they deserve credit for scoring under 3 mins ( sudden surge of hidden demand) ".

Teddy had an nice post in the 2011 thread about this approach .If USCIS does end up doing this they will have to hold the line longer for consecutive months since they will end up seeing demand from various sides which means chances diminish for end of 2007 and early 2008 and they would have to file later in 2012 for 485.

I am trying hard not to expect anything as well. ( takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )

Was checking out a few other forums and the general consensus is that the movement will be 0 or 1 month. I hope that it is atleast 1 month. It will bring relief to a few of us and give hope to the rest.

But trying hard not to expect anything.

[qesehmk]

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2012. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[veni001]

10102007

Yup buddy have been following the chatter around the net as well and most of them are expecting something similar ( 0 to 1 month ) movement based on their lawyer perceptions about USCIS wanting to hold the line and not do any retrogression.It will be very painful if the above does happen but have seen this movie play out many times before.

I tend to imagine USCIS as an conservative football coach whose team has the ball in the 4th quarter at 3 mins and instead of trying to march down the field will try to punt the ball and will play prevent defense .Then in the postgame conference the coach says " Well you know our defense did not stop them(meaning no proper estimation of nubmers between DOS and USCIS) and they deserve credit for scoring under 3 mins ( sudden surge of hidden demand) ".

Teddy had an nice post in the 2011 thread about this approach .If USCIS does end up doing this they will have to hold the line longer for consecutive months since they will end up seeing demand from various sides which means chances diminish for end of 2007 and early 2008 and they would have to file later in 2012 for 485.

I am trying hard not to expect anything as well. (takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )

gcseeker,

DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.

Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your insights! it's very good analysis.

I hope Mr.CO can be less conservative and move PD to Feb or March of 2008 by March 2012.

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[veni001]

....... movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. ......

Q,
I know you mean by March 2012.

[10102007]

10102007

( takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )

'thalaivar' (leader/ head/ chief) Rajni takes it one step further. He says everything is maaya and 'chaya' (shadow). Nothing is real. Geez..it's scary.

I think we should start telling people that only the flight ticket is in their control. Everything else - visa, H1 stability, GC etc. - is bonus or maaya.

[gcseeker]

Veni

Thanks for sharing those positive thoughts.I hope USCIS decides to do it that way. Do you think it would make sense for them to do a big move like 5-6 months in the next VB and grab additional demand for guardbanding since they are anyhow gonna possibly do the retrogression in Dec VB.

gcseeker,

DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.

Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.

[druvraj]

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.