EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

SUMMARY

1. We believe the dates should actually move past Q1-2008 in 2012 itself although they are U / unavailable right now for EB2IC.

Reason - The reason behind this optimism is two-fold.
1. The much less than normal EB1 and EB2ROW demand. (This is based on the 485 data published. I was wrong to look at trackitt trend. That data is not useful for predicting EB1 EB2ROW demand in 2012)
2. Q1+Q2 didnt seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.

Bottomline - Although VO has communicated that dates will be U for EB2IC. We believe they will move within 2012 itself and move significantly upto Mid 2008.

Those interested in detailed analysis, graphs and simulation, check out http://whereismygc.com. Disclosure - that is a commercial website.

FACTS AND DATA SECTION
Those wanting to do their own analysis, you can find a treasure of data in FACTS and DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...FACTS-AND-DATA

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
PWBA - People Waiting for Boat to arrive (i.e. waiting to file 485)
SYA - Same year approvals
R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
BTM - Big Temporary Movement
UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement
TBM - Temporary Backward Movement

CO - Charles Oppenheim
VO - Visa Office
VB - Visa Bulletin
NVC - National Visa Center
NSC - Nebrasca Service Center
TSC - Texas Service Center

Visa Dates Movement & Retrogression

The visa movement was quite unexpected but the retrogression wasn't. We always maintained that after July 2007 there was a cliff in terms of demand and USCIS needed to build inventory again. How much they built was a matter of policy and they chose to build 3 years of inventory 2007-2010. So our advice is - all the talk about not enough approval cases and low or high EB1 or EB2 ROW demand is all irrelevant at best and misguidance at worst. Just focus on this fact that USCIS needed to build inventory and the way they moved dates was to take a slow orderly intake.

So the movement was UFM so far. Now there will be a severe (more than necessary) retrogression followed by SFM.

May 2007 or prior is what I consider severe. So even that is not sustainable. However two things do NOT bode well for EB2IC

a) EB1 approvals - YTD EB1 has consumed 4 times visas compared to prior year according to trackitt. But that is clouded by the EB1I data and hence more reliable data point is latest 485 inventory which clearly shows EB1 demand at about 2K max per month.
b) EB2IC YTD approvals - It seems EB2IC has already consumed minimum of 17K and probably upto 24K of visas. However given the weaker eB2ROW and EB1 demand, it means they received that much SOFAD because and not inspite of EB1 EB2ROW demand. In other words - This only means that there is Q3/Q4 SOFAD still left for EB2IC.
c) EB2ROW - This too has shows signficant slow down. Again check 485 inventory to see this.

Thus I do not agree with CO or DoS that there won't be any more visas during remainde of the year. Neither I see why ROW should retrogress at all.

I-140 Statistics and SOFAD

Here is interesting I-140 statistics:
I-140 numbers are very interesting since they show secular trend unlike 485 which fluctuates based on vias bulletin dates movement.

2011 I-140 filings ~82000.
2012 I-140 filings ~32K for Q1+Q2 which implies 64K for full year.
That's 20-22% reduction compared to prior year. In terms of extra SOFAD that means approx. 18K extra visas to EB2IC (assuming A) a conservative split of 50-50 between EB1+EB2ROW and rest, and B) 2 visas per I-140.0.

Even if you assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far. That still means 18K more are yet to come. We will see... Good luck!


Latest Visa Bulletin Analysis

First CO stayed true to his words and retrogressed.

However some of the language in the VB is a bit too far:

1) Saying that ROW might need retrogression is being too pessimistic (some calculations below)
2) Saying that he will try to reach 2010 for EB2IC in 2013 is too optimistic if he is thinking of clearing EB2IC backlog without HR3012.

So here is the situation as of now.

FACT 1 - 50% of newly filed (i.e. post Aug 2007) 2007 cases are approved.
FACT 2 - 30% of 2008 cases are approved.
FACT 3 - 0% of 2009 and older cases are approved.
FACT 4 - 20% of EB1 cases from 2009-2011 are unapproved.

Worst Case Situation Analysis for EB2ROW - This indicates at approx 2K per month - 12-14K EB2IC cases approved as of now. => 2-3K EB2C approved. So 17K SOFAD so far.

in order for EB2IC to NOT have any more - means EB1 and EB2ROW MUST consume all remaining visas. EB2ROW last year already probably ran at full capacity. EB1 this year is running 3-4 times higher rates compared to prior year. This together doesnt work well for EB2IC.

EB2ROW consumption can't pace at a faster rate than EB2IC. So even if we assume there is no demand destruction for EB2IC, EB2ROW should come in at full year number of 26-34K MAX. Which means that there shouldn't be EB2ROW retrogression (at least for more than a couple of months).

So it is unnecessary pessimism to talk about EB2ROW retrogression.


Trackitt Trend


Here is what the trackitt data shows. Don't focus on the extrapolations - since they are quite out of whack.

I have put it together only to show the fallacy of using trackitt trend. Given the YoY variances - I would suggest using trackitt data in a relative manner i.e. % approved in a year and then extrapolating that to an absolute number. But I would caution that using the data put together here is meaningless yet - I did it only to show the pitfall of using it rather than actually using it for predictions.

[Spectator]

Early Analysis For FY2013

Posted September 07, 2012

This is my third post for FY2013, such has been the changing outlook. My first post was fairly pessimistic. That was replaced by one that was far more optimistic, but containing assumptions that made it so.

The outlook has turned more pessimistic again with the release of notes form a discussion with Charles Oppenheim.

The usage of EB1 seems to have increased even more and EB2-WW may again become retrogressed in late FY2013.

The uncertainty is such that I can only give Best and Worst Scenarios. Rather than SOFAD, I will talk about Spillover numbers, since none will go to EB2-China.

Best Scenario

The best scenario is that despite the warnings, EB1 provides 5k of spillover. In addition, EB5 still manages to provide 2k of spillover.

In addition, EB2-WW has no need of any spillover visas.

EB2-I would have access to about 9.7k total visas.

Porting is the big unknown and it has a large affect on movement when visa numbers are relatively low.

I am going to use the DOS Demand figures for September as the base numbers, with pre 2008 numbers prorated as per the May 2012 Inventory.

If porting was 4.5k then COD could move to the end of 2007.

If porting was 6k then COD could move to November 2007.

If spillover were only 5k (7.8k available to EB2-I) and porting 4.5k, then COD could move to about October 2007.

If spillover were only 5k and porting 6k, then COD could move to about July 2007.

Since USCIS do not strictly process by FIFO, the dates could be slightly more than that.

Worst Scenario

This doesn't bear thinking about.

EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available.

Even if a small amount of spillover were available, it is possible that EB2-WW would consume it.

Even with quite modest porting numbers, the dates would likely retrogress to a date before 2006, or become Unavailable.

Tailwinds would be:

Not sure there are many.

Head winds would be:
(a) The Demand Data numbers may rise. That is probably a lower risk for the PD involved.

(b) More Porting cases with PD before August 2007 will be added throughout the FY than anticipated. Many may be pending the final interfiling step from this FY.

(c) Heavy EB1 Use. Relatively less likely, as numbers have returned to somewhere approaching expected numbers in FY2012.

(d) Increased EB5 usage. Not strictly relevant, because EB5 is likely to approach the maximum number allowable in FY2013.

If CO moves the Cut Off Dates too aggressively early in the year, he will risk repeating what has happened this year.

I would expect, especially considering the EB2-C position, for CO to move Cut Off Dates cautiously for the first 2/3 quarters and then balance them based on any further spare visas that are actually available in Q3/Q4.

This would be a return to the previous method, where spillover was not released until relatively late in the year, when actual numbers could be better judged.


Analysis for Quarter 4 of FY2012

Posted July 03,2012

Going into Q4, it appears that EB2 has used as many as 49k total visas.

At this level, it should probably be made Unavailable, which a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 effectively is for EB2-WW.

The problem with ACTUALLY making it Unavailable is that it would put all the eggs in the EB1 basket, with no other Category to take up any late slack towards the 140k total.

EB1 appears to have used about 29k visas to the end of Q3 FY2012. Given the usage in EB2, it also appears that the maximum number available to the Category is around 35-36k.

At current usage of EB1 visas, EB1 is capable of reaching this figure before the end of the FY. There remains the possibility that EB1 (or at least some Countries) will have a Cut Off Date imposed before the year end.

Total visas for the year may run out in early September, which represents a week earlier than normal.


Analysis for the Second half of FY2012

Posted February 20,2012

Although this may not be a popular view, or shared by other Guru's on the forum, this is how I see the current situation after CO's recent announcement. It assumes he is not spinning another yarn.

Whether he actually believed it or not, CO has until now used an assumption that EB1 was going to use the same low numbers of visas as last year.

This allowed him to project a large number of spillover visas for the year (about 35k) and rapidly move the Cut Off Dates forward.

As well as being advantageous to him to build up an Inventory, it also allowed tens of thousands of EB2-IC applicants to submit their I-485 and benefit from EAD and AP.

Possibly, given their past performance, CO wanted a large inventory quickly, so there would be enough "easy" cases for USCIS to ensure that the available visas would be used by the end of the year.

Rapid, early advancement gave USCIS the maximum amount of time to adjudicate the cases.

I think CO has been surprised by the speed with which USCIS has processed the number of cases they have received and it is certainly unusual.

EB1 was never going to provide the same sort of numbers in FY2012 as it did in FY2011. The reasons for this were discussed as long ago as July 2011, based on published I-140 data. The effects of Kazarian were the driver for low numbers in FY2011.

SOFAD at a level of 30-35k is only possible if EB1 provides large numbers to fall down, otherwise the EB2-non IC approvals become far too low to be believable.

Assuming that EB5 visas will still be available via EB1, IMO the practical range of SOFAD ranges from under 20k to about 24k.

24k SOFAD would be made up of :

EB1 -------- 0
EB2-IC --- 5.6
EB2-MP --- 3.0
EB2-ROW - 10.4
EB5 ------ 5.0

Total --- 24.0

That says EB2-ROW would only use about 18.5k. Currently they are on track to use more than that, but a slower H2 is possible. In FY2011, it appears that EB2-ROW used about 25k, so it represents a big drop.

Personally, I think EB5 will yield not more than 4k this year, some of which could be used by EB1 in the worst case.

In the best case, EB1 won't quite reach the 40k limit and provide a few k towards spillover.

Although the exact number is unknown, I think most people believe EB2-IC will reach at least 20k visas used by the end of March 2012.

That leaves very few visas left for the second half of the year. Porting cases and those earlier 2007 cases that have not yet been adjudicated can probably use up the remaining visas over a 6 month period.

If they don't, by August/September 2012, there will be no shortage of pre-adjudicated EB2-IC cases that can be approved quickly if the Cut Off Dates are relaxed.

I do not see the Cut Off Dates touching 2008 again in FY2012 if the dates do retrogress back to August 2007, unless EB1 does provide some spillover.

In fact, it is difficult to see how many visas can be approved in April. If they are, it makes the situation even more perilous. Edit:- Clearly, it wasn't possible, as the announcement of internal retrogression from March 23 2012 proved.

Come October 2012, there will be a large number of pre-adjudicated cases ready to approve. Cut Off Dates will move according to the number of visas available in Q1 2013. Assuming QSP is employed again, the dates can move forward several months from the ending point in FY2011.

Large forward movement in the Cut off dates will not occur again until the new Inventory approaches exhaustion.

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other news and information.

GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end of FY 2012.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.

- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December.
-We expect that 3.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jum would have been filed.
- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 – EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485’s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.
.-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD, the dashboard model does suggest that the Sofad this year maybe 5k lesser due to the approval of 20K additional I140’s in the last more months assuming 50% of this was absorbed in FY 2011 (In the later part of the last quarter movement was extremely limited) and 50% will carry over to FY-2012.

DASHBOARD TREND
The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485). By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

TRACKITT TREND
EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.
TRACKITT TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. The month of Jan is still in progress so the overall 2012 tally will be higher finally. All data is for primary approved cases from Oct – Jan for the respective years.
EB1 (A+B+C)
2011 - 17+21+23 = 61
2012 - 23+42+92 = 157

The number of EB1C approvals is almost at 4 times of last year. While EB1A is at the same level EB1B vases are also double now this may indicate that the impact of the Kazarian memo is now receding. Most EB1C cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt EB1C is from India so the data should not be taken at absolute face value. The trend correlates well with high I140 approvals just prior to the start of FY 2012.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 108
2012 – 158

EB2 row is still underperforming but has picked up from the 50% line; row has a tendency to pick up later in the year. Partly this may have been due to the prevailing wage stoppage.
For now it appears that the 12K SOFAD that we got from EB1 will most likely not be available this year. EB2 ROW will hopefully compensate some of the loss. Also the Oct filers / Nov filers (Very Few) approvals for EB2 I/C have slowed down they have not been all inclusive either for Oct filers, normally when numbers are available in good supply everyone gets approved.
This maybe just my theory, I believe that CO allocated the entire 5.6K India / China annual cap in Oct itself in the month of Oct QSP quantity / volume cannot be judged. The rest of the approvals which is easily 12K including porting have come by quarterly spillover. This way CO is in fact ahead of QSP at this point and a very significant portion of the SOFAD has been used.
Good luck to everyone for the next VB which might go either way. Demand destruction is a factor for the new intake however this year since the wiggle room offered by the SOFAD left is not very much it will not significantly impact the approval line. For example an OR of .8 as opposed to 1 just causes a difference of ~ 2K numbers assuming that SOFAD will be 22K and 12K is consumed so 10K is left.

I hope this is helpful, please use this information based on your individual judgment & discretion. Comments, critique, suggestions and corrections are welcome and are appreciated.

[nishant2200]

Assumption of 2.5k density a month.

Expected final date movement by Q4 FY 2012: somewhere in May - June 2008

Expected GC issuance: somewhere in December 2007-January 2008 border

Spillover:

EB1 : 5k (backlog and no change in incoming demand)
EB2 ROW : 8k (taking a gamble here, betting on less incoming demand)
EB4 : 0
EB5 : 5k (inspite of USCIS encouraging this category, the messed up economy makes it really not that tempting IMHO)
EB2IC : 5.6k
Total SOFAD: 23.6k

Expected worst case porting: 4k

QSP shall be utilized at CO's discretion and that shall help us. Any quarter in which demand for our SO source categories is less and / or USCIS does not step up on backlog reduction, we shall benefit if CO does QSP.

[veni001]

Veni's 2012 preliminary predictions.

Spillover est. from EB1 ~6,000
Spillover est. from EB2ROW-M-P ~6,000
EB2IC regular allocation ~5,600
Spillover est. from EB4 ~ 0
Spillover est. from EB4 ~5,000

Total SOFAD ~=22.6k

[UkayDkay]

Congratulatons on 2011 success and wish you guys the energy & enthusiasm to carry it into 2012. Looking forward & keep the ball rolling.

[soggadu]

naya thread...naya physical saal (sorry fiscal year) mubharak sab ko....

(New thread...new physical year (sorry fiscal year) congratulations all for.... ) as need by visa+gc+info bhai... cant really translate somethings...understand that you are not missing any information regarding gc and visa if it is in hindi ;-)

my avatar... i am in status quo with this avatar till something good happens and some rainbow to shine after this rain... I am basically a villain until then... sorry Q's princess....

2 cents for all those waiting for VB...Dont keep any hopes... aaya toh aaya, baaki sab maaya...

only prayer...God make teddy bhai current..he truly deserves and had waited patiently....

[visagcinfo]

Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

[soggadu]

Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

also wondering visagcinfo bhai...if it is in tamil, telugu, kannada, marati, bengali or any other language...dont u need translation... just wondering... you know all just but hindi...parantu kyooun????

[qesehmk]

Thank you. Added CO & VO.

Point well taken on Hindi. Will do going fwd.

Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

[nishant2200]

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

[visagcinfo]

Oops.. meant to say non-English :-( I wouldn't even be able to figure out what exactly was the language in which it was written, could probably say south or north.

also wondering visagcinfo bhai...if it is in tamil, telugu, kannada, marati, bengali or any other language...dont u need translation... just wondering... you know all just but hindi...parantu kyooun????

[gcseeker]

Nishant bhai

I have an similar feeling that it might come out on the 7th ,though going by previous dates the bulletins have always come around the 10th/9th.

Well anywaz here's hoping it goes till end of Nov 2007.Actually gut feeling that it will be Nov 15th 2007 in this bulletin itself and maybe CO will move it till Dec/Jan2008 by next one.

Hope it does.This particular one is making me very tense.

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

[iatiam]

I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

I hope you are correct. Assumptions have been made that 60% EB2 of the PERM, 80% approval of 140, 15% drop out rate out of these eligible to file 485 for 2007.

These are reflected in Spec's figures he has put up in header of thread.

Only way we can know if actual drop out is bigger is from future time elapse leading to data reports, like a pending 485 report or demand data that reflects new intake date movement qualified.

Again, we all wish drop out is higher and we get pleasantly surprised.

I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai

I have an similar feeling that it might come out on the 7th ,though going by previous dates the bulletins have always come around the 10th/9th.

Well anywaz here's hoping it goes till end of Nov 2007.Actually gut feeling that it will be Nov 15th 2007 in this bulletin itself and maybe CO will move it till Dec/Jan2008 by next one.

Hope it does.This particular one is making me very tense.

Just calling me nishant is ok!

Yes, me too getting on the edge. Your thoughts do sound correct too. I honestly feel they should do one big one in next VB and maybe a small addenda in next, this would also give ample time for people to file. They definitely cant hold the line for more than two VB more.

[ssvp22]

Just calling me nishant is ok!

Yes, me too getting on the edge. Your thoughts do sound correct too. I honestly feel they should do one big one in next VB and maybe a small addenda in next, this would also give ample time for people to file. They definitely cant hold the line for more than two VB more.

Considering the fact that any movement that needs to be done, has to be done by March 2012, doing 2 month movement for the next 5 months will get hard to justify for CO by the time we hit Jan since there would already be cases in the pipeline that cannot legally be assigned Visa number. Hence it has to be 3 month each or 4 month each for next 2 months, depending on the target month in 2007/2008 that CO wants to reach. Anyhow, i think there seems to be some special provision in the law that enables them to take any amount of input of cases irrespective of the visa numbers left. Else there wont have been any movement in Oct.

[Spectator]

I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAM

iatiam,

It is certainly not a stupid question. I also believe in the maxim of common sense. If something fails that test then it probably isn't true (or is a least highly suspicious).

I can't speak for others, but I am not using figures of 2.5k EB2-I I-485s per month.

It is true that just using 60:40 ratio for EB2:EB3 based on PERM Certifications would give a figure of about 2.4k EB2-I cases per month.

In the tables I have produced, as Nishant said, I am also assuming only 80% I-140 were approved and that 15% of 2007 cases no longer exist and 10% of 2008 cases no longer exist for various reasons.

Overall, this means that only 68% of 2007 PD cases remain and 72% of 2008 cases.

For September to December 2007, that gives an average of 1.65k cases per month (ranging from 1.57 to 1.82k).

For 2008, the average number of cases per month is 1.74k ranging from (1.44 to 2.15k).

2009 numbers are much less.

These numbers are very much in line with numbers seen in previous USCIS Inventories. Also bear in mind that the numbers for May-August 2007 are understated, since there were/are considerable PWMB for these months.

Any Porting numbers are in addition to these figures.

Also remember that EB2-C are also competing for numbers and average 300-350 cases per month.

At the end of the day, they can only be best estimates and the assumptions cannot be tested yet. If new cases remain unadjudicated long enough as we approach and pass the end of the current backlog, we may be able to test the assumptions against reality and adjust the numbers accordingly.

I always try to lay out all the assumptions. I leave it to you to judge whether the numbers sound sensible or not - they may not to you.

[nishant2200]

The really tricky part is that the real result of a date movement can only be known by the time they get to do the next to next bulletin release. And that too we are basing on the common sense fact that they must have set a mechanism with USCIS to let DOS know about the receipt of I-485s for EB2 I and C. Else DOS would be totally blind until the 485 would actually come into demand data.

About the provision in law, I don't think there is any such law specifically. The law as it looks like was never made with multi-year backlogs or huge spillovers or huge processing backlogs in mind. There was also an era when visa wastage was not frowned upon. It was very simple minded one might say. It's basically few basic premises which DOS/CO might have jotted down in order of some priority. For example, one such rule set in order of priority might be:

Postulate No 1: Do not waste any Visas.
Postulate No 2: Follow the law for the allocation with regards to categories being current, numerical limits for retrogressed categories, and the Spill over distribution.

Just the above two simple premises would lead to a number of "delicious" decisions by DOS/CO. And as long as these basic premises are communicated to USCIS, Ombudsman, Congress, and what have you, and the stakeholders are in communication and agreement, no one is going to go over the lawbook and preach to them, so it seems to me.

Considering the fact that any movement that needs to be done, has to be done by March 2012, doing 2 month movement for the next 5 months will get hard to justify for CO by the time we hit Jan since there would already be cases in the pipeline that cannot legally be assigned Visa number. Hence it has to be 3 month each or 4 month each for next 2 months, depending on the target month in 2007/2008 that CO wants to reach. Anyhow, i think there seems to be some special provision in the law that enables them to take any amount of input of cases irrespective of the visa numbers left. Else there wont have been any movement in Oct.

[ssvp22]

The really tricky part is that the real result of a date movement can only be known by the time they get to do the next to next bulletin release. And that too we are basing on the common sense fact that they must have set a mechanism with USCIS to let DOS know about the receipt of I-485s for EB2 I and C. Else DOS would be totally blind until the 485 would actually come into demand data.

About the provision in law, I don't think there is any such law specifically. The law as it looks like was never made with multi-year backlogs or huge spillovers or huge processing backlogs in mind. There was also an era when visa wastage was not frowned upon. It was very simple minded one might say. It's basically few basic premises which DOS/CO might have jotted down in order of some priority. For example, one such rule set in order of priority might be:

Postulate No 1: Do not waste any Visas.
Postulate No 2: Follow the law for the allocation with regards to categories being current, numerical limits for retrogressed categories, and the Spill over distribution.

Just the above two simple premises would lead to a number of "delicious" decisions by DOS/CO. And as long as these basic premises are communicated to USCIS, Ombudsman, Congress, and what have you, and the stakeholders are in communication and agreement, no one is going to go over the lawbook and preach to them, so it seems to me.

We also need to factor in that DoS, USCIS, and attorneys will be pretty much in vacation from December 20th to Jan 15th. I remember i had got audit on my Labor in late december(Christmas present from DoL), and i was not able to file a reply till late Jan. So, if any of us are expecting movement in December VB, it is imperative that one should have the complete 485 package read to go, else either the attorney is going to messup, or the doctor, or the USCIS, and if there is retrogression on Jan 10, you are going to miss the boat.

[gc_usa]

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

CO gets reports from all consulate around 8th and Monday eve or Tue morning it can go into production.

[gc_usa]

Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?

[kd2008]

Oct 10 is Columbus Day which is a federal holiday. So DoS and USCIS will be enjoying a long weekend.

[gc_usa]

Oct 10 is Columbus Day which is a federal holiday. So DoS and USCIS will be enjoying a long weekend.

Also I think next two bulletin will be published later so DOS can get I 485 receipt data from USCIS for at least half month and decide based on that.

[rdsingh79]

My guess is that EB2IC cut-off date would be set at Oct 15 2007.

Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?