EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[GhostWriter]

geterdone, since these numbers show up in demand data so that means the latter (i.e. all good to go except for a visa number). USCIS has been processing about 5-6K EB2-I cases per month for last 6+ months and the total inventory for EB2-I is 38K for PDs 2007-2010. Of course the calculation is only as good as the inventory or demand data.

Also for 2007 the calucaltion is probably incorrect. In Sep demand data there were 4900 cases for all PDs of 2007 and before. In October demand data there are 1350 cases for 2006 and before and 4150 cases strictly for 2007 PDs. It is hard to beleive that percentage of cases processed would be higher for 2008 than 2007 both for India and China even after 6-8 months of filing. The addition of porting cases for 2007 to demand data should have increased the percentage for 2007. Probably some of the 2007 cases in the inventory were old and complicated cases and most of the newly filed 2007 cases in 2011 have been approved. I do not have the answer to this mystery.

For 2008, 2009 and 2010 the numbers have been gradually increasing every month and i do have more confidence in them.

It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.

[gc_soon]

What's really frustrating is that CO hasn't provided any notes. It's absolutely shameful on his part to say "every effort will be made for the cut off date to reach May 2010 by spring 2013" and then not say anything why he won't do that.

I think we deserve at least an explanation(especially after he gives false hopes) and not leave us to just rely on "meeting notes" from AILA meetings with CO.

[ChampU]

This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

I agree. It is highly unlikely that the numbers stay in 2004/2005. What I want to say is the rapid movement of EB2 in FY-2012 would have prompted the urgency of the EB3-EB2 upgrades.. a slow moving EB2 will lessen the incentive to the upgrade. As small as it maybe, it is still a risk to file for a new PERM and I-140 and unless the reward is immediate,it may not be worth the risk.

Assuming that EB2-I gets about 10-12k (Regular 2.8k+ SO of 7-9k) in FY2013,

If by the end of FY-2013, the dates stay in 2004/2005, it would mean that roughly 10-12k porting applications take up the EB2 numbers in FY 2013. That would mean that roughly 1 in every 3 EB3 applications ( there are 30k EB3 applications in 2003-2005) have ported, which is unusually high considering the state of the economy.. So it is highly unlikely that the dates would stay there..

If the dates stay in 2006, roughly 1k applications will take care of EB2 backlog in inventory numbers and roughly 9-11k applications would go to EB3-EB2 upgrades which means 1 in every 4 applications have ported, which is still high.

If the dates move to mid-2007, 8k applications go to upgrades (roughly 1 in 5) and 2-4k applications go to "original EB2", which is a nightmarish but a plausible scenario..

If dates move to end of 2007, the two categories share a 50-50 load.6k porting, 6k to EB2.. which I think is a likely scenario..

A move to mid-2008 would mean that "original EB2" applicants would take up roughly 12k applications and there is no room to account for porting, unless EB2-I gets anymore than the estimated 10-12k visas. Also, a move to mid-2008 also brings in roughly 2k applications from EB2-C in the picture..

By late Q2, early Q3 the demand for EB2-ROW will become clear. We can then revise the SO and date movement estimates.. For now, my estimate is end of 2007 for end of FY-2013..

[vrs7734]

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

[gc_soon]

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

It's useful to have an approved I140, so that your PD is "finalized" so even if you end up moving to another company and redo PERM and I140, you can use your PD from previous employer.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

ROW is both treated and not treated as one bucket simultaneously. Yes, they allow each country to reach 7% before retrogressing it, but they also limit the total number of visas to all non retrogressed countries to N = 40K - 2.8K x # of retrogressed countries, (in this case there are 2 retrogressed countries, I & C, so roughly 34.4K available to ROW, M & P). So, in this case, a whole bunch of countries have not reached 7% but together they've exceeded 34.4K in visa numbers.

A side issue, is that the 2012 'fiasco' led to the USCIS over-issuing visa numbers to EB2I and C, so ROW didn't actually get the full 34.4K available for that year.

Still, rest assured, ROW will move forward quickly over the next couple of months and you will have no COD soon. Enjoy your green card when that happens and spare a thought for the rest of us when you cast your vote at the 2018 elections.

[suninphx]

Relax. It is not going to take 7 years for you. In a sense, Q is right that the *long term* wait time should be 4 years. The queue will adjust itself. Many people will leave, EB1 will become stricter, job market will deflate after the elections etc. I have seen all phases of the PD. Getting stuck, seriously flying ahead, severely getting back etc.

You can also bet that the next time the DOS faces a demand cliff (PD at May 1, 2010), they will advance the PD rapidly *yet again*. Also, EB3-I is going to be depleted by approximately 24K in the next 4 years (3K regular + 3K porting). That queue will start going faster and porting won't be a factor as much.

And there is always a very good possibility for something like HR 3012 becoming law. I am not giving up on it. It's only a matter of time before a sensible bill like that becomes law.

In short, the long term prospects are there. I would just advice you to concentrate on your job and leave the immigration worries for a later day. It's too early for you, and you may not suffer at all.

Good post. We really need some positive posts like this- specially these days. As we know eventually it may take four, six or more years and we can't control that. But posts like this definitely help keeping our sights on bigger picture.

[gc_soon]

Spec, Any predictions/thoughts based on Oct VB and Demand data?

[gc_soon]

Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases.

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

[nishant2200]

I don't think they are this scientific about it.

I believe, CO will now go back to his annual SO strategy since his buffer kitty is full. And hence, going back to his old style of opening account very cautiously, and then increasing in bursts once he gets clearer picture of annual SO trend.

Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases.

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

[qesehmk]

Friends - we will close the donations poll soon. Please vote for your charity so that we can donate from the site's ad revenues. As many of you are aware - this site is run as a not for profit. Any new ideas for next month are welcome - I personally am going to add wikipedia to the list.

[redsox2009]

My two cents based on recent cumulative demand Data and Visa BUlletin.

Capture.JPG
From the Cumulative demand data table
Second table shows the visas avaliable per month for country and ROW.

India has 1350 cases prior to 2007 and in Visa bulletin date came to 2004 and based on the number from second table it will take 6 months to hit 2007. Similarly it takes 4 months to touch 2008 and 2 months for row to cross 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

[gkjppp]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

Teddy,For EB2 Apr,2008 by Sep 2012 is almost certain. If USCIS tightens EB1 screws and EB2WW is at its usual rate EB2 may end up anywhere between Aug 2008 to Oct 2008.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

[Spectator]

Moved BC related Q & A to appropriate sub-forum.

[Spectator]

They can be found here.

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

[tatikonda]

What does increase in pre-adjudication cases from March 2012 Suggests ??

pre-adjudication cases From March 2012 to Jul 2012.

Mar12 ->>>> 82162
Apr12 ->>>>> 82573
May12->>>>> 88043
Jun12 ->>>>> 95757
Jul12 ->>>>> 98423

USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

[abcx13]

They can be found here.

Applications Received in FY - 67,400

Application in Q4 to Date - 15,800

EB-I demand shows no sign of abating.

[eb2china]

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.

[justvisiting]

They can be found here.

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

Interesting, the total number of audits pending increased only 100, but the % jump is big because the total number of analyst reviews pending decreased.

This probably means audits are getting longer and standard cases are being processed more quickly. Most "easy" approvals on trackitt are in the 58-74 day range.

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.

Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, there is no prospect of that.

To reach 07/10, EB2-China would require a minimum of about 7.5k approvals in FY2013. Because EB2-India has so many cases compared to EB2-China, that really means SOFAD of > 48k being available in FY2013. That isn't going to happen under any scenario I can imagine.

It is likely that EB2-C will only receive 2.8k visas in FY2013. The maximum that could move EB2-C (without any porting) is about August 2008. Because of the low number of visas available, the date is very sensitive to even low numbers of porting cases for EB2-C.

With no porting and assuming only 2.8k per year is available, EB2-C might reach 07/10 in FY2015.

Only if SOFAD averages more than 19k per year over FY2013 - FY2015 might the time be less than that. You will have to decide whether that is feasible or not.

PS SOFAD equals all possible visas available to EB2-IC (normal allocation + spillover/fall across).

[gc_soon]

Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

[cbpds1]

prob Ron is assuming that the president will pass the HR 3012 bill as soon as he gets into office.

Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

2012 USCIS year is ending today. With this we are closing 2012 thread.

Lets continue over to 2013 thread HERE

Let me take this opportunity to thank first and foremost every single Guru and moderator. Other than their unique strengths and insights - I think we should also thank them for the sheer time and individual attention they put in.

I also thank the moderators especially for keeping the forum clean of spam. It is a thankless job and they do it annonymously. Even I don't know who cleaned what. But the fact that our forum stays clean day after day is a testament to their efforts.

Finally I also thank all the contributors and readers for keeping this forum objective, cooperative, respectful and friendly!

While GC is on everybody's mind - we might as well make this wait enjoyable by walking together.

With those words I am closing this thread - although will keep it open until midnight tonight just in case somebody wants to pen any final thoughts.

I wish everybody a great 2013 USCIS year!!!

All the best.

Q