EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[justvisiting]

Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.

I agree the date seems random. Q, I would point out that the monthly allocation for EB1 and EB2-WW is much higher than that of any single country. However, I agree that EB2-M and EB2-P probably have a higher demand than 250 a month and it's hard to explain how they have the same cutoff date as WW.

The dates show CO will be super-cautious this year. Burned once (2007) and twice (2012). Don't think he would like to be brunt thrice.

USCIS seems to be adding 6K India, 1 K China and 2K Other cases per month.

[ChampU]

Damnnn that suxxxxx!!

This is an extremely conservative move on the part of CO.. But at least, this guarantees that there will be movement on a fairly regular basis in this FY..With a COD of 2004, even if EB2-I is restricted to regular quota movement, it would still bring forward movement every month.. The porting allocation will be front loaded.. and there should be allocation for "original EB2" applicants in Q2/Q3 at least..

As disheartening as this is.. at least, we will be able to forecast porting trends early in the year..Looking for a silver lining on a storm cloud...

I had thought that I would not worry about the bulletin until at least February, had the dates moved to August 2007.. Not anymore..

[Spectator]

Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.

Q,

Pending Demand in the Inventory is not the same as documentarily qualified cases that would appear in the Demand Data. The USCIS figure just says they have an approved I-140 and the case is in process.

The monthly increase in EB2-WW cases in the Demand Data since becoming retrogressed is not outside the normal monthly allocation (3.1k / month). The total accumulated is, hence a Jan 2012 Cut Off Date.

With exception of this year, it is exactly what CO has usually done and what he always does with EB3 for all Countries.

[qesehmk]

Spec - that is quite untrue. Just check out the EB2ROW and EB1 inventory as much as is available on USCIS website, almost always the entire category had more backlog than monthly category quota and yet the category was NEVER retrogressed.

With exception of this year, it is exactly what CO has usually done and what he always does with EB3 for all Countries.

[Spectator]

Spec - that is quite untrue. Just check out the EB2ROW and EB1 inventory as much as is available on USCIS website, almost always the entire category had more backlog than monthly category quota and yet the category was NEVER retrogressed.

Q,

I suggest you re-read my post.

I explained why the total USCIS Inventory does not equal monthly demand.

Currently actual monthly demand for EB2-WW appears to be c.2k / month in the Demand Data.

Aug - 775 (about one week) - Data as of July 9, 2012
Sep - 2,775 - +2,000 - Data as of August 8, 2012
Oct - 4,850 - +2,075 - Data as of September 6, 2012

Another 3 weeks should add c. 1,500 at the current rate for a total of c.6.5k.

Since EB5-China start with zero allocation, there is probably some extra numbers available as well to satisfy the demand over 2 months.

FY2009

COD moved from 01APR03 to 01JUL03 in October through January.

FY2010

COD stayed at 22JAN05 from October through February, then 01FEB05 March through June.

FY2011

COD stayed at 08MAY06 from October through April.

[qesehmk]

Spec - all of us are aware of that fact. If you look at EB2ROW inventory - are you saying that out of 5-10K outstanding cases they never had more than 2.5K demand (equivalent to their monthly quota right)?

Q,

I suggest you re-read my post.

I explained why the total USCIS Inventory does not equal monthly demand.

Currently actual monthly demand for EB2-WW appears to be c.2k / month in the Demand Data.

Aug - 775 (about one week) - Data as of July 9, 2012
Sep - 2,775 - +2,000 - Data as of August 8, 2012
Oct - 4,850 - +2,075 - Data as of September 6, 2012

Another 3 weeks should add c. 1,500 at the current rate for a total of c.6.5k.

Since EB5-China start with zero allocation, there is probably some extra numbers available as well to satisfy the demand over 2 months.

[qesehmk]

Sorry guys to hog this thread - but please vote for your charity. We try to keep this site not-for-profit by donating the ad revenues from this site.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made

[Spectator]

Spec - all of us are aware of that fact. If you look at EB2ROW inventory - are you saying that out of 5-10K outstanding cases they never had more than 2.5K demand (equivalent to their monthly quota right)?

Q,

They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.

The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.

Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.

In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.

As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.

Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.

[veni001]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

Teddy,
I am kind of skeptical if that is going to happen before Q3, considering the fact that ROW-M-P got 13K demand from May 03,2012 inventory and 6K PERM certifications in Q3.

[openaccount]

Have not noticed till now but EB5 and EB4(Certain Religious Workers) is U for October, i think because of bill pending in House.

From VB:
"The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as “Unavailable” for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become “Current” for October."

[abcx13]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the new EB3-I: EB2-I! As always, we Indians have screwed up the system for ourselves. (Yes, I am aware there are a lot of flaws but somehow every other country except India managed not to overload the system. And you are delusional if you think India has a higher number of skilled migrants to offer the US as compared to all other nations.)

I think CO should repeat 2007 and make all categories current since USCIS refuses to give him porting numbers. Porting numbers are crucial to take stock of the situation. If you ignore SOFAD for a second, I'm pretty sure that all of India's 2.8K EB2 quota is being eaten up by porters. How is this a tenable or sensible system?

There will undoubtedly be those who think the situation as not as dour as I make it out to be. But porting (both I and ROW) only has one direction to go - UP. Think of all the EB3s stuck in the system.

EDIT: Interesting that the Indian IT companies pay the lowest salaries out of the top 25 H1B corporate applicants:

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/To...-2011.aspx?P=1

This includes all the big IT shops: Infy, Wipro, TCS, Patni, Cognizant, L&T Infotech, Satyam, UST Global (seems Indian too). I am sure the high salaries are because they are getting the world's best and the brightest engineers from India. (sarcasm) I was looking at Wikipedia's H1B stats and applications from Indian IT shops have gone down significantly. I bet that L1 apps from the same employers have gone up commensurately. Of course, USCIS does not make those statistics public.

I'm also hoping that there will be some juicy material to read from the Infosys lawsuit. Narayana Murthy's admonishments to Indians to do better ring a bit hollow when his business is founded on body-shopping. He complains about the lack of Indian PhDs in Computer Science. But what opportunities does the Indian IT industry offer them?

[qesehmk]

But then overall isn't the point spec. This is october and the point is - are dates set in October based on Monthly quota?

I think your rest of the talk about demand data vs 485 data - while I understand that difference - is less relevant.

We can always agree to disagree. But this is quite an objective matter. The date movement is irrational and meant to scare EB2I applicants. Nothing else nothing more. At the least it is stupid application of whatever logic CO is trying to sell others. In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013. So this date movement is absolutely malicious or plain stupid.

Q,

They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.

The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.

Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.

In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.

As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.

Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.

[Spectator]

In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013.

Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

[bvsamrat]

This appears to be the right.

By April/May 2013, the dates will move back to somewhere in 2008- early/mid/late- take your pick.

4-5 years time period for Eb2-I- that is the average norm. Meanwhile EADs will be provided in spurts just to keep the inventory and keep UCIS busy.

Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

[venoo_d]

Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

[tackle]

Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

[ihp62as]

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

[venoo_d]

Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

Thank you.

[openaccount]

Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

[bvsamrat]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

[openaccount]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

No this not new it is happening for past 4 years(more after 2007 when all categories were made Current) but in last 2-3 years it has increased every year, in FY2012 porting was at peak if there was no retrogression from Jun2012 we could have easily seen couple of thousand more porting from EB3-EB21 in those 4 months.

[geterdone]

It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).

EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)

[ChampU]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

I am not sure how much of a porting went on before 2007 (Labor substitution was an easier option). It has been "noticeable" since 2007..
.
This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

[openaccount]

This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

[A_Tech_Softie]

Given porting is the way to go for EB3, ideally there should be no visas that get allocated to EB3 and those EB3 visa numbers can help compensate for the porting influx in EB2-I.