EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vrs7734]

considering the expected porting and spill over numbers, I won't be surprised if eb3 row will surpass eb2india in near future.

I will be happy as GOVERNMENT will seriously start to think changing employment based immigration policies.

[openaccount]

http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.c...ioncommentary/

Copied from AILA

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 9/05/12)

Cite as “AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Sep. 5, 2012)”

On Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

Notes from that discussion are:

Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why. Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown. The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October. In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates. The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.
EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005, but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.
EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.
EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current).
EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Other comments:

As reported previously, another problem with trying to predict the demand is that USCIS is not providing real time data on EB-3 to EB-2 “upgrades”, and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” “Upgrades” continue to be a big “wildcard,” as no one knows how many are being used per month. Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that USCIS cannot tell him how many upgrades are filed. He would appreciate a process where USCIS notifies his office when the I-140 for the EB-2 “upgrade” is filed, so he can understand what is in the pipeline. Since the retrogression earlier this year, the Visa Office has better data on the cases pending than they did previously because cases filed with a pending adjustment of status application are pre-adjudicated, which gives his office more detail on the person’s priority date history. Retrogression is still a problem, but understanding the data is a small benefit to it.

Upgrades were initially limited to India and China. Worldwide upgrades are now occurring, with 2,900 upgrades for EB-2 worldwide in February 2012. Over 500 of those had a priority date of 2009 or earlier. The Visa Office knows it has 3,500 EB-2 worldwide cases pre-adjudicated and ready to be approved on October 1st and expects more new filings in October.

Family Based (FB) 2A cases: Usage is dropping. Outreach programs seem to increase usage. Immigrant visa waiver delays, primarily in Mexico, also slow usage. FB-2A usage is slower than it should be so the priority dates are expected to move forward at the same pace as FY2012. However, if demand continues to be low, this group may move forward more significantly in the spring of 2013.

[openaccount]

USCIS mislead CO big time this year, one thing is for sure he is not going to move EB2I any further at least until August2013.

[TeddyKoochu]

Someone quoted this on another forum from mitbbs:

Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005,but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.

EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current). EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Thanks for posting for everyone's benefit. My view is that the prediction made here assumes only 240 odd allocation per month will be done come October. The only reason to move as far back as suggested is for porting cases. Considering that Eb2 has been unavailable for a while it would not be surprising that they have at least 500 ready to approve porting cases with a PD prior to Aug 207 and they wish to draw the line at 240 - 250 odd.

[kkruna]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

[abcx13]

They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

Go back to India for one year, become a 'manager' and file under EB1C which is always current (so your old PD is irrelevant unless EB1-I retrogresses).

[chengisk]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

That is what is making me think that all this notes from that law firm is humbug.

[openaccount]

Spec,
As i pointed out earlier EB1 used almost 40k if not more this year.

FY2012 rough usage
EB1------40k
EB4/5---16k
EB2------46-48k

I believe CO will move dates based on Usage in past 6months from(March2012) and estimating FY2013 numbers based on usage in past 6months.

So if we take above(FY2012) usage as basis for FY2013 then EB2IC will not receive more than its regular quota(5600) which will be used up by Porting numbers, i think that is the reason for CO being cautious about FY2013 EB2 movement. He might change his projection later but it wont happen till August 2013 especially after what happened in past 6months he will move dates more cautiously.

Only thing EB2I can do now is
--Use EAD/AP
--Apply EAD/AP renewals before 120 days of expiration
--Wait…Wait…Wait till your number comes

Things EB2I can hope for
--EB1/EB2ROW/EB4/EB5/Porting--demand decreases(difficult with current numbers)
--USCIS gives priority to DACA applications and delays EB1/EB2ROW/EB4/EB5/Porting processing which would decrease demand(not possible as 485 cases have separate adjudication officers)
--HR3012 passes(least possible under current circumstances)

[tackle]

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted).

This is sad.

[CleanSock]

I think a lot is going on against Indians in general in the government. Heard that F-1 rejections in India are at an all time high. In a certain reputed university in NJ/NYC area only 16 Indians joined in all grad courses this fall as compared to 300 from China.
Makes me wonder what is going on :O

They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

I think a lot is going on against Indians in general in the government. Heard that F-1 rejections in India are at an all time high. In a certain reputed university in NJ/NYC area only 16 Indians joined in all grad courses this fall as compared to 300 from China.
Makes me wonder what is going on :O

Hopefully they are cleaning up the frauds like TriValley and the small consulting shops who don't pay benched employees. I personally know at least 3 Indians with different backgrounds who have flouted H1B and B1/B2 rules.

What sucks though is that the grain gets mixed with the chaff. Any more details on that uni? Is it Rutgers?

EDIT: BTW, curious where you get the F1 statistics from. Haven't seen them and I'm sure they'd be interesting. Or was that anecdotal?

[openaccount]

Posted at:
http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18052

http://immigration-law.com/

We should get clear picture in next 6-9 months how EB2 dates will move in future. I think CO will stick to the process(which ever he is going to follow in FY2013) for next 4-5 years until pending cases are cleaned out.

[CleanSock]

No it's not Rutgers. It's a very popular and reputed University closer to Wall Street. I know because I am a student there and part of their student council and that's how I have the numbers. Another interesting thig is that all those 16 Indian students who got F-1 have prior work experience.

Hopefully they are cleaning up the frauds like TriValley and the small consulting shops who don't pay benched employees. I personally know at least 3 Indians with different backgrounds who have flouted H1B and B1/B2 rules.

What sucks though is that the grain gets mixed with the chaff. Any more details on that uni? Is it Rutgers?

EDIT: BTW, curious where you get the F1 statistics from. Haven't seen them and I'm sure they'd be interesting. Or was that anecdotal?

[bvsamrat]

It appears that EB3 is just a foot on the door, as ultimately they all get upgraded.

They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

No it's not Rutgers. It's a very popular and reputed University closer to Wall Street. I know because I am a student there and part of their student council and that's how I have the numbers. Another interesting thig is that all those 16 Indian students who got F-1 have prior work experience.

Interesting. I guess you mean NYU? What is the usual intake of Indians? While 16:300 is a lopsided ratio, it doesn't by itself mean that a lot of Indians got rejected. Feel free to PM if you don't want to discuss publicly.

[abcx13]

It appears that EB3 is just a foot on the door, as ultimately they all get upgraded.

Yeah, by hook or by crook. I don't really blame them - it's the system that's at fault. What else would you do if you were faced with an interminable wait in EB3? You'd upgrade using the 5 yr work ex or some crappy online university (if you didn't want a Masters for educational reasons, i.e.).

[Spectator]

Just some observations about the AILA Infonet article. Some of the staements were actually a little odd.

The American Immigration Lawyers Association just posted the following information [AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Sep. 5, 2012)]:

Notes from that discussion are:

Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why. Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown. The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October. In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates. The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.

I would confirm that I also saw very high August approvals for EB1.

Because only about 25k approvals were made in FY2011, rather than the 35k that might have been expected (from published I-140 data), around 10k EB1 cases may have flowed through to FY2012. There was therefore always the possibility of 45k approvals in FY2012 if the backlog was brought back to the former level.

If anyone (in DOS or USCIS) ever thought 13k were going to be available (27k approvals) - frankly they are an idiot and I don't say that with the benefit of hindsight. I can understand DOS using it as an excuse to release visas early, but only with the knowledge that it was never going to happen.

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005, but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.
EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

The initial dates and progress have more to do with existing and future porting numbers. Possibly that is what is meant by reference to retrogression in FY2012.

China is clearly going to be less affected by this, unless we have seriously misjudged EB2-C porting.

EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current).

This is a slightly odd one for me. I have no problem with the fact that it might take 2 months for EB2-WW to become Current.

What is odd is the reference to the fact that EB2-WW might become retrogressed late in FY2013.

Assuming there isn't another visa allocation cock-up, this could only happen if EB2-WW had demand in excess of visas available to it.

That is 34,434 plus any numbers available through falldown from EB1.

If that were to happen, then one can infer that EB2-IC would get no spillover at all and would only have the 5.6k allocation available.

Even for me, that seems a very pessimistic viewpoint. It is certainly not impossible, but I am extremely surprised that the possibility should even be mentioned before the FY has begun.

It does tend to say that fairly high EB2-WW approvals were expected anyway and that the backlog flowing through from FY2012 may cause EB2-WW to exceed the allotted quota. To even suggest it as a possibility is not a good message.

EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Again, this is a really strange statement.

EB1 and EB2 usage cannot generally affect EB3 numbers, unless spillover to EB3 were expected, which is definitely not the case.

The only way I can rationalise the statement is if it is referring to EB3-Philippines (and maybe EB3-Mexico), who can exceed the nominal numbers in EB3 because of the derivation of the 7% number.

If there were high approvals in EB1 and EB2, then the numbers available to that Country in EB3 would reduce.

In FY2011, EB2 approvals for Philippines increased by 50%, so maybe this is what is being alluded to.

In addition, some Countries (ROW for sure) are going to reach the end of the current backlog during FY2013 and the COD will have to be moved forward to generate new cases. That can't really be described as "would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide".


I know I have probably (no, have) over-analysed the exact words used. The forecasts must be necessarily vague at this stage and should be treated as such. Since it is an interpretation of what was said, it is always possible that something was lost in the translation of what was actually said or meant.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks for your thoughts Spec.

How do you monitor monthly approvals.

I would confirm that I also saw very high August approvals for EB1.

The other way it is possible is use of QSP again. If there is spillover from EB4/EB5 and EB2-ROW does not have more demand than its quota in a quarter then the spillover can be applied to EB2-IC. Later when EB2-ROW demand increases in a subsequent quarter then it will get a cut-off. CO if he wishes can do QSP just to keep providing part of spillover (from EB4/5/1) to EB2-IC. The prediction of demand in subsequent quarters is subjective and can be done in more than one ways.
Q2 (Jan-Mar) will be a good time to do that, the old cases of EB2-ROW would have been approved in Q1 and the new EB2-ROW cases that would be filed in Q1 (Oct-Dec 2012) would not be pre-adjudicated yet and will not show up in the demand data till Q3. But it is a matter of choice and very less likely. Also can only help in short term (1-2 years).

This is a slightly odd one for me. I have no problem with the fact that it might take 2 months for EB2-WW to become Current.

What is odd is the reference to the fact that EB2-WW might become retrogressed late in FY2013.

Assuming there isn't another visa allocation cock-up, this could only happen if EB2-WW had demand in excess of visas available to it.

[Jonty Rhodes]

There can only be two conclusions from these posts and predictions by CO, DOS, USCIS whatever.

1. This system is completely f***ed up.

2. These agencies/CO can not be trusted because their reputation of messing up everything horribly precedes every statement/prediction they make.

I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

[qesehmk]

Jonty time lost is so much more precious. That's why people need to follow their dream regardless of gc status.

I suspect the govt agencies are quite competent and well coordinated. I believe the delays and lack of clarity comes because of severe limitations on eB visas and need to implement immigrations objectives within what law prescribes without revealing inner workings respectively.

There can only be two conclusions from these posts and predictions by CO, DOS, USCIS whatever.

1. This system is completely f***ed up.

2. These agencies/CO can not be trusted because their reputation of messing up everything horribly precedes every statement/prediction they make.

I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

[pakkpk]

http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.c...ioncommentary/

Copied from AILA, reality is shown in the analysis for EB2.

[abcx13]

Spec, what do you make of the porting number? 2900 upgrades to EB2ROW in Feb alone is quite high. Maybe we have been underestimating porting? It's frustrating that he doesn't just give an annualized porting number for ROW and IC.

If 2900 is what it was in one month (and that's only ROW from my reading of the AILA doc), then most of the EB2 quota is likely going to upgrades from EB3, which I find to be ridiculous.

[Spectator]

Spec, what do you make of the porting number? 2900 upgrades to EB2ROW in Feb alone is quite high. Maybe we have been underestimating porting? It's frustrating that he doesn't just give an annualized porting number for ROW and IC.

If 2900 is what it was in one month (and that's only ROW from my reading of the AILA doc), then most of the EB2 quota is likely going to upgrades from EB3, which I find to be ridiculous.

abcx13,

CO freely admits that he is not getting any information from USCIS about porting, which is clearly a source of increasing frustration to him.

Whenever he mentions "upgrades", the associated figures seem wildly high. I think any figures for Feb or March 2012, even if true, are probably not representative because USCIS were in "hyperdrive mode" at that time.

Porting numbers are a black hole as far as the calculations are concerned. No-one, with the information available, seems to have been able to pin a number on them.

If there is significant porting for WW, it isn't currently helping forward progress in EB3. 2007 PD numbers for EB3-WW have hardly changed either. That would point to porting being from post July 2007 cases, if it exists.

On the other hand, it would at least partly explain how EB2-WW has been able to sustain such high numbers.

The May 2012 USCIS Inventory showed about 3.2k cases for EB2 with a PD before 2011. That may also be evidence.

Bottom line - I'm not sure it is a question I can answer right now, although it is one I also think about.

[chengisk]

... I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

You should change your smiling avatar to a frowning one. I agree with Q when he says the people in the system are competent. It is just the system itself that needs to be revamped. However I see no impetus for such a change as we wish for. So till then, quoting Ted, "...the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die." That's what we 'the highly skilled' to do everyday... it is lab time now.