Good news is that there is no further retrogression for EB2 ROW or CODs for EB1.Originally Posted by Kanmani
Good news is that there is no further retrogression for EB2 ROW or CODs for EB1.
Thanks Kanmani ....good to see EB1 current for another month...phew!!
Just to strike an optimistic note, eb1 might even give eb2 row a few visas next month and we may see eb2 row cod move a little before the year end.
I am not so sure of that, especially after Spec posted this <http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28398#post28398> yesterday.
We need that...specially with 'not so positive' news around
Gurus,
I have been a silent follower of this thread. Your analysis of this EB chaos is truly incredible. Now I am facing a situation of my own.
My 6 year H1-B will expire in middle of this October. My 140 for the EB2 category was approved last year. So I am going to extend my H1-B for another 3 years based on my approved 140. I have a lawyer who had successfully handled my PERM and 140 applications. However, her fee for H1-B extension is $1500!
So my question is: does anybody here have experience of filing H1-B extension by yourself with approved 140? What extra documents it requires compared to the regular H1-B extension? What are the chances of it being denied? My plan is to file the petition myself without a lawyer and save the money. Fortunately my company is very supportive and I can everything in hand.
Thank you in advance for your responses. You can delete my post after it is answered.
It is entirely your company's job to do your H1 and not yours.
NSC - EB2I | PD: Sept, 2007 | RD: 03-Nov, 2011 | ND: 08-Nov, 2011 | FP Notice: 10-Dec,2011| FP Done: 30-Dec,2011
EAD/AP(Approval Email): 09-Dec, 2011 | EAD/AP(Physical Card): 15-Dec, 2011
GC(Approval Email): 27-Jan, 2012 | GC(Physical Card): 01-Feb, 2012
I work for a small company. They have limited knowledge about immigration. I basically have do everything myself, preparing documents, finding a lawyer, paying all the fees, etc...But at least my company is supportive (e.g., signing the papers I prepared...)
I have been passing on career growth opportunities, in search of the GC and had made up my mind regarding sticking to my job until I get my GC (For those who understand Marathi: Bemtya, naukri hi lagnachya baikosarkhi aste....). Now that the prospect of getting a GC this year is getting very very dull, I am seriously thinking about using AC21 and take up a job that would give me atleast a 20% pay hike. I had questions about the risks associated with AC21.. 1. Must the new job have the same title as the previous one? 2. Do the job requirements have to match exactly with the ones on my PERM application? My company had given me an employment verification letter, highlighting my job responsibilities..If my new job description includes these tasks along with some senior level stuff, is that enough?? I am not sure, if this has been addressed before..
Bemtya, naukri hi lagnachya baikosarkhi aste....). -- LOL
I also have similar questions..... I had posted that here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8361#post28361
As far as designation goes I remember Q responding that designation can be different (like Director Software Development) ..
Last edited by suninphx; 07-10-2012 at 01:35 PM.
I have discussed this with my 2007 batch friends and their overwhelming response was go for it..Their logic and rationale makes sense, but my reservations against going for it are:
1. Majority of folks who filed in 2007 knew very well that they are looking at a 2-3 yr wait before getting GC, at least.. It makes total sense to use the benefits of AC21, instead of being stuck on H1.. For folks like me with PD in first half of 2008, the estimated wait is a huge unknown.. Anywhere between Q1-2013 to ... and with EB2-ROW (anbd possibly EB1)getting a COD, its not a very pleasant picture.
2. The amount of scrutiny in immigration matters has gone up tremendously. Getting h1, L1 stamped is getting difficult by the day. Who knows, even AC21 transfers might be under the microscope as well and any small technicality (Job description change, location issue, prevailing wage.. there are a million things that they might decide to pull ur file on) might derail the whole process..
It hurts to choke your own career and drain your own wallet..
Gurus,
Is there any chance I will get 485 approved in 2013 - 3rd quarter .
My primary spouse already received GC in March and I as a dep missed out .
Thanks
Since you've waited thus far, might make sense to stick around a couple of months more to see how HR3012 plays out before the election. I know this wasn't the question but..
OMG! By LAW the petitioner (Company) need to pay the fees (except lawyer fees).
this is true. the employer must pay the application fees. I'm not positive but they even have to pay visa stamping fees (at least mine does).
I still think there is a fair chance of EB1 getting COD or become 'U' in Sept VB . There might be numbers available for August but that doesn't mean that t is going to stay 'C' in next VB. If demand increases than what is estimated for August it will become 'U' in Sept VB. If USCIS gives more demand estimation for Sept then there will be COD in Sept VB.
Demand for EB2ROW prior to Jan 2009 is 25 (almost 0) this might be the reason for EB2ROW PD staying at Jan2009 instead of becoming 'U'.
If EB1 gets COD or 'U' then EB2ROW also will be 'U'.
Eb2_Dec07,
I would say the chances are high but it depends greatly on EB1/EB2ROW demand at the start of FY2013.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
They would pay first but later deduct from the salary...
That is also illegal.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Not only black and white in the world...Can anybody provide some answers to my orignal question? Much appreciated.
PD2011, nobody here would wish your fate on anyone else here. Spec and others have clearly indicated that what has been going on is not proper and may be illegal. It is best for you to seek advice from a competent attorney.
I hope you get the right advice soon.
Spec -
I just read through your header post in detail. It definitely paints a grim picture. The key factor is obviously the demand at the end of Sept going in to FY2013. Its even more critical for HR3012 to pass through so that a healthy SOFAD can come through to EB2IC.
I do have a question though. Demand data shows 4725 cases in 2007. How many addln cases do you think can come in for 2007 ? I assume there will be some porting and possibly some more pre-adjudications.
I personally believe we will clear 2007 in FY2013 easily and should end up around Jan 1, 2008 come Oct 2013 (unless HR3012 becomes law).
PS: I don't want this to become a HR3012 discussion.
Thank you. Please delete all the related posts.
vizcard,
Thanks for your post.
I was actually just going to ask Veni why he was so upbeat about FY2013, since he seems to share your opinion.
I think we need to think about the 4,050 EB2-I Demand Data cases separately, since EB2-C is a completely different situation.
For me the headwinds consist of EB2-WW cases delayed from FY2012 and Porting cases delayed from FY2012 and becoming ready to adjudicate in FY2013 itself.
While the Demand Data shows a lower figure (which may be more indicative), the USCIS Inventory shows 6.1k EB2-I cases to clear 2007. Ultimately it will probably be somewhere in between. Let's say that it requires 2.2k spillover to reach 5k.
Porting
As Kanmani found, the final interfiling step cannot be completed until the PD becomes Current again, so there are a number of porting cases between May 2012 and October 2012 to add. At 3k porting /year that is a further 1.5k cases, bringing total cases to 6.5k and spillover required to 3.7k.
If we then account for porting cases in the first 2 quarters of FY2013, that adds a further 1.5k, so total visas required to clear 2007 becomes 8k and spillover required becomes 5.2k. The remaining 2 quarters of FY2013 add another 1.5k porting cases, so the final tally for EB2-I to clear 2007 becomes 9.5k approvals of which 6.7k is spillover. Note I have used the lower bound of porting estimates.
In traditional terms, that is 12.3k SOFAD for EB2-IC
EB2-Worldwide
Any EB2-WW pent up demand going into FY2013 will have priority for any spillover available. I think that will be in the 6-8k range. Unless the backlog is increased, EB2-WW are likely to hit or exceed the 34.4k allocation available to them. That means no Fall Across within EB2 and potentially using some of the Fall Down from EB1. In many ways, I had expected EB2-WW consumption to start to reduce based on PERM, but that does not seem to be the case to date.
How much Fall Down might we get in FY2013?
It is possible that EB5 will approach the 10k available to them in FY2013, judging by the I-526 statistics.
EB4 is a complete dark horse. It gave loads of visas in FY2011, but that was an unusual event. I have never seen information about EB4 consumption outside the yearly DOS and DHS reports. Maybe I am being too pessimistic about future performance.
If EB4 doesn't contribute, then the only Fall Down might be from EB1 itself. Unless EB1 I-140 numbers have dropped dramatically, EB1 is likely to l use 34-36k visas, giving only 4-6k Fall Down. Some of this might even be used by EB2-WW.
That doesn't appear to be sufficient spillover to clear PDs of 2007, unless EB4 makes a contribution.
In the absolute worst case, EB2-I might only have 2.8k visas available in FY2013, which wouldn't even sustain a Cut Off Date in August 2007 once porting is factored in.
Admittedly, I am painting the grimmest possible scenario, but I think it is one we should at least think about.
Even at best, SOFAD is not going to be very high next year IMO. If pressed, I think 8k visas to EB2-I is a maximum. EB2-C will only get 2.8k regardless, but that is enough to move them into 2008 because of their lower number of applications.
Please feel free to rip it apart. I realise I have used fairly aggressive assumptions, but I don't feel comfortable with less at the moment.
Being the lone pessimistic voice doesn't feel good. I don't derive any pleasure from it at all and frankly I am loathe to post predictions because of that.
I'd really like to think I have missed something obvious, but I just can't see it. I appreciate all opinions.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec -
your predictions are not pessimistic they are realistic. It is is better to live in reality rather than in assumption.
Had dates progressed in controlled manner EB2IC could have got no more than 16-18K SOFAD instead of 24k SOFAD this could have taken EB2IC FY2012 PD to Oct/Nov 2007 which matches with your earlier prediction for FY2012.
Please continue what you are doing which will give us a better picture.
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