EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

...............
.................................................

Veni - I understand this. I am talking about the net EB1 140s you calculated and then tying that to actual EB1 approvals in 2009-10-11-12. I am sure they dont quite match up well and the variation is much less compared to what the 140 numbers would make you believe.

Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!

[mesan123]

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... yes he never got an RFE.

suninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[suninphx]

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... yes he never got an RFE.

Thanks Mesan!

Thats very interesting news!

[green5]

I got NVC notice dated June 11th. I had already filed I485 (PD: Mar 2010). I have no clue about how NVC is sending out notices when the PD is not current since May 1st!

[qesehmk]

Mesan - I somehow thought you yourself were already greened. So was not really expecting to hear from you. Good! This example you gave just goes to show the discretion USCIS / DOS exercise in doing anything. So if you think about it .... all this date movement and the rationale behind seems like a good story they give to the immigrant community and then do whatever they please back doors.

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... yes he never got an RFE.

Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!

That's good. I think if we now tie those numbers to the approvals in every year and remaining EB1 backlog - we may achieve Nirvana on this front!! Seriously. No kidding.

[openaccount]

I got NVC notice dated June 11th. I had already filed I485 (PD: Mar 2010). I have no clue about how NVC is sending out notices when the PD is not current since May 1st!

Shouldn't CO know if DOS is sending NVC notices unless it was decided to send these notices before April.

[mesan123]

Hope your words were true Q ....me still in the Queue...waiting for my date to be current(Feb 2011). dont know how long the wait will be...with this july bulletion and all this chaos

Mesan - I somehow thought you yourself were already greened. So was not really expecting to hear from you. Good! This example you gave just goes to show the discretion USCIS / DOS exercise in doing anything. So if you think about it .... all this date movement and the rationale behind seems like a good story they give to the immigrant community and then do whatever they please back doors.



That's good. I think if we now tie those numbers to the approvals in every year and remaining EB1 backlog - we may achieve Nirvana on this front!! Seriously. No kidding.

[suninphx]

If someone gets GC while dates are not current is it within the law? Or one needs to get in touch with USCIS to inform them about the error(!)?

[qesehmk]

Hang in there with friends. It makes the difficult journey better. Teddy / Venni and myself ... received our GC during last 1 year. It certainly made my life easier to be able to share and vent frustration!!

Hope your words were true Q ....me still in the Queue...waiting for my date to be current(Feb 2011). dont know how long the wait will be...with this july bulletion and all this chaos

[openaccount]

If someone gets GC while dates are not current is it within the law? Or one needs to get in touch with USCIS to inform them about the error(!)?

It is within law if VISA number was allocated when dates are current and who knows about this USCIS/DOS who approved so we can expect what they would say.

[justvisiting]

Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!

The problem is the FY2011 anomalous low number of approvals.

[mesan123]

Yeap you are right Q By the way what is GURU's take on recent approval and NVC reciepts...i am really not able to understand CO or USCIS stance ....i am personally happy my friend is approved .but i am not able to understand the Immigration Folks stance here. when they tell the dates are not current for the last 2 months and they approving cases here and that doesnt make any sense....

Hang in there with friends. It makes the difficult journey better. Teddy / Venni and myself ... received our GC during last 1 year. It certainly made my life easier to be able to share and vent frustration!!

[qesehmk]

Nov2010 - I replied to you in the thread dedicated to whereismygc.com at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7436#post27436

Trying to keep this thread clean of whereismygc.com related stuff.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think CO and his agency can and will do whatever they want to. There is no transparency so any case can be made by them by showing any numbers and erroneous data. I will share what my lawyer shared with me earlier.

My lawyer told me last month that one of his client who had his GC in EB2C category got approved. He had PD in early 2007. Surprisingly, his wife who is his dependent and on H4, got approved within 2 months of filing I-485 but her husband who is the primary applicant did not get approved. Actually, the wife got her GC in mail first and EAD arrived 3 days later. My lawyer told me that neither his office nor his client got any RFE for his or his wife's I-485. Still his wife (dependent) got approved and the primary applicant was waiting to get approved for total 7 months. Finally, after waiting for 5 more months after his wife's approval and after making multiple calls to the agency, my lawyer got frustrated and asked his client to contact the Senator. Before, he could call the Senator, the primary applicant finally received his GC last month in mail. And all this time while waiting for 7 months, he never got his EAD/AP. Again, EAD/AP arrived few days after he got his GC.

Isn't that crazy?

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...1_may_2012.pdf

Applications Received
YTD (Oct. 1, 2011 – May 30, 2012) 43,100
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 13,300
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 17,700
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 12,100

These are massive amounts of filings. Last three years, avg. number of filings per year were about 43,000. We have met those in just 8 months. Oh, Lordy!

Applications Certified
YTD(Oct. 1, 2011 –May 30, 2012)* 27,600
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 9,500
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 7,100
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 11,000

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...1_may_2012.pdf

Applications Received
YTD (Oct. 1, 2011 – May 30, 2012) 43,100
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 13,300
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 17,700
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 12,100

These are massive amounts of filings. Last three years, avg. number of filings per year were about 43,000. We have met those in just 8 months. Oh, Lordy!

Applications Certified
YTD(Oct. 1, 2011 –May 30, 2012)* 27,600
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 9,500
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 7,100
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 11,000

Kd,
As usual very good information.

Massive PERM certifications in April and May!

FY2012(Q1+Q2) = 16,600
April-May (2012) = 11,000

ROW is about 40% of PERM approvals and 60-40 split means an additional ~6k EB2-ROW into the pipeline, in just two months.

[kd2008]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.

Kd,
As usual very good information.

Massive PERM certifications in April and May!

FY2012(Q1+Q2) = 16,600
April-May (2012) = 11,000

ROW is about 40% of PERM approvals and 60-40 split means an additional ~6k EB2-ROW into the pipeline, in just two months.

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

[murali83]

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

kd2008,

I think you are right. I guess I should start looking for a job in India and head back asap. I dont think Fy 2013 will even cross Dec 2007.

[kd2008]

kd2008,

I think you are right. I guess I should start looking for a job in India and head back asap. I dont think Fy 2013 will even cross Dec 2007.

Murali, It is your personal decision. I don't think GC should be the only criteria for working in the U.S. But if you are hanging on to the job you have in hopes of getting a GC, then it might be wise to revise your decision and follow career opportunities irrespective of GC.

[murali83]

Murali, It is your personal decision. I don't think GC should be the only criteria for working in the U.S. But if you are hanging on to the job you have in hopes of getting a GC, then it might be wise to revise your decision and follow career opportunities irrespective of GC.

KD,

Thanks dude. Thats exactly what my plan. My PD is June 2008. So a very dicey PD to take any decision and I am just way too young to stick to a particular job without career advancement in hopes of getting a GC as you said. I guess I am going to apply for better opportunities both in the US and India and see what comes first.

So I would like to just repeat this word of wisdom from the gurus in this forum and this for all newbies with PD's in 09-11 range. "DONT TIE YOUR CAREER DECISIONS TO YOUR GC"

[Stemcell]

Guys,
I have been off from this forum for a while, due to the mess that was created and the frustration of being so close and yet so far (PD of Oct 26,2007).
Although this is a EB2 prediction thread i want to ask a question which is related to me, and i apologize for deviating from the broad discussion and focusing microscopically.

The demand data shows 3400 for India and 400 for China EB2 pending as of Jan 2008.Come October 2013 if DOS plans to keep IC on the same page(as they have in the past), and given 2800 visas per year for each country,the dates should move to at least Dec 2007 by Jan 2013 right ?

[suninphx]

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?)

[qesehmk]

sun - I have the same thought. I guess the small ray of hope is that next year they don't have this rush to intake new 485s and so the approvals will be more or less FIFO.

And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?)

[kd2008]

And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?)

For their illogical nonsensical movements they still more or less adhere to the annual limit.
Like Q said, when they have a stack of pre-adjudicated I-485s they have been fair and processed them in FIFO - more or less. Post-july-2007 fiasco being exhibit A in years 2009,2010,2011 (after they had sorted out FBI name check backlogs).

[suninphx]

sun - I have the same thought. I guess the small ray of hope is that next year they don't have this rush to intake new 485s and so the approvals will be more or less FIFO.

Q- my illogical point is - if there not lot of hue and cry about making EB2ROW retro this year then same model will very well play out next year. (And we have not seen them applying any logic recently).