This has been featured on Fareed Zakharia GPS as well.Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid
This has been featured on Fareed Zakharia GPS as well.
Article indicating record usage of EB5 - expecting EB5 usage to be 6K this year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citize...092400861.html
Saw this interesting post on Murthy's site...not sure how many have read it...provides good info on if prior I140s can be revoked and retention of earlier PDs.
http://www.murthy.com/2012/05/11/eb2...nline-degrees/
Strange that they haven't published Visa Bulletin yet...
Thanks Kanmani!
Thank you Prabhas. Both are doing well by God's grace.
Thanks Vizcard. Totally agree. Moments like these make us realize what life's real priorities are.
Thanks a lot Q! The support and love we get from this forum is amazing. Cheers!!
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received|| EAD/AP-Applicant: 3/26/2012 (combo card) first received
|| Now what?
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5733.html
Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd 01JAN09 U U 01JAN09 01JAN09
3rd 22JUL06 22SEP05 22SEP02 22JUL06 08JUN06
Last edited by green5; 06-11-2012 at 02:41 PM.
visa bullitien is published
The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5733.html
EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!
That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.D. EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
Continued heavy demand for numbers in the Employment Second preference category has required the establishment of a Worldwide cut-off date for the month of July. This action has been taken in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Should there be an increase in the current demand pattern, it may be necessary to make this category completely “unavailable” prior to September 30, 2012.
The China and India Employment Second preference categories are already “unavailable”, and will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Co has really screwed the pooch this year!!
I was wondering why there had been no EB2-WW approvals later than June 2, 2012. Maybe this is the reason.
Last edited by Spectator; 06-11-2012 at 02:42 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Does that mean when spillover is available it goes to first IC as they are most retrogressed?
And EB2-WW will get the new visas in the next fiscal year when new set is avilable?
Spec thanks for posting and giving everyone a heads up. Basically the numbers are in short supply, lets hope that EB1 does not retrogress. You are correct basically EB2 as a whole is done for the year as hardly any pre 2009 ROW cases should be there.
In the spillover pyramid EB2 ROW comes higher than EB2 retrogressed so it can potentially absorb any generated spillover from EB1 and EB5. Starting next year in Oct we have to keep a close eye on EB2 ROW forward movement because until Eb2 ROW becomes current again we cannot expect any spillover to EB2 I/C.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 06-11-2012 at 02:50 PM.
OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!
Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.
I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.
In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.
In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.
Last edited by kd2008; 06-11-2012 at 02:50 PM.
Spec, this is a very bad omen for EB2 in general. If EB2-WW cases accumulate and they start filing at the start FY 2013, it may take up the whole year to clear the backlog leaving nothing for EB2-IC. I hope EB2 does not become like EB3.
this is exactly what I am thinking now... Looks like EB2-I is screwed up big time....
kd,
I am not so worried about porting initially and I still think EB2-I might start around Aug 15, 2007 in FY2013 (maybe slightly earlier). I admit to being a bit fuzzy about how the Unavailable status impacts porters finalizing the process.
I initial thought was about the effect of the accumulation of EB2-WW cases on SOFAD in FY2013. That is c. 6-7k for 3 months, or about 8-9k if there is already internal retrogression, that will be waiting for approval come FY2013.
It makes it more likely that EB2-WW will hit their limits in FY2013, starving EB2-IC of spillover towards SOFAD. It's something I need to think about, but that was my first thought. I might well be the perfect storm for EB2-IC in FY2013.
Possibly the shock of such severe retrogression has made my initial reaction too pessimistic.
Last edited by Spectator; 06-11-2012 at 03:02 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This not a good news. Spec, you were right all along raising warning alarms...
eb3 row jumped quite a bit...so perhaps the eb2 row cut off dates implies an element of significant porting too?
wow what has CO done in 2012, what a mess
--gave EADs to some 45k+ applicants
--decreased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 8k applicants-2008 applicants who got lucky
--increased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 5-8k applicants- mostly 2007 & some early 2008 who got screwed big time
Spec, quick question. Suppose there is a minimal spillover from EB1 in the final month of FY 2012 (few hundreds to may just 1,000). Will that be allocated to EB2-IC or to EB2-ROW? My thinking was it would go to EB2-IC as the spillover is given in order of PDs. But considering EB2-IC is "U", wouldn't the spill over go to EB2-ROW?
Edit: Pardon my ignorance! Spillover happens to the most retrogressed countries in any category if and only if all countries in that category are current. So basically until EB2 ROW is current things will be quite bad because not only will EB2 ROW consume its own quota but will absorb any EB1 and EB5 spillover as well - Teddy's explanation!
Last edited by kd2008; 06-11-2012 at 03:21 PM.
Gurus based on this , when do you practically think dates will cross beyond Dec 2007 for EB2 India .
And yet mess that was probably life changing for some or most of those 45K+ applicants that got the EAD right? I appreciate the 2012 move.
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
Certainly No more Visa to EB2 I/C. People are already talking about suing DOS for
1) allotting more than statutory cap limit to India/China and and messed up EB2 ROWers.
2) Allotting more than permitted visa for Q1-Q3 Limits ( < 27 %). ( Noit Sure ..)
Thank you
Last edited by tatikonda; 06-11-2012 at 03:31 PM.
KD, the approvals for EB2 I/C cases in Feb and March this year was way ahead of fundamentals. There was absolutely no decline in EB2 ROW this year and EB1 did not give any SOFAD. EB5 would also give lesser spillover considering extensive promotions going on. This way overall SOFAD to EB2 I/C would be closer to 20K assuming last year it was 34K with 12K less for Eb1 and at least 2K less for EB5. By liberal estimates EB2 I/C have already received 25K.
When the year started most predictions though often called pessimistic had suggested a date of Oct - Dec 2007. It was really good that people till May 2010 got a chance to file 485's I believe that count of cases was absolutely incorrect for that to have happened though but very good that everyone benefited.
Many of us including me were benefited by the feb - mar approval windfall this year. Unfortunately we still have some PWMB and 2007 cases still waiting. With the current situation in Oct 2012 the date for Eb2 I/C will be set at 01-Aug-2007 so that just PWMB and porting cases from Jul 2007 fiasco times are eligible.
Spec, your predictions from months ago came true. Thanks for your analysis, it was accurate and much ahead of the time. A couple of questions.
- Do you think EB2-ROW will be current by the end of Sep-2012 or will it have cut-off date or unavailable status even when FY-2013 begins. The VB warns about EB2-ROW becoming "unavailable". What are the chances of that.
- I know it is too early and there are lots of unknowns but any rough ideas on how FY 2013 will look like for EB2-IC. Can EB2-IC expect any spillover from EB2-ROW if their demand reverts to prior year levels. Or does the current retrogression mean that it will take more than few months to clear EB2-ROW inventory.
I respectfully disagree with Self.coach's assessment. I am sure everyone has their opinion based on their situation in life - just like mine!! I don't mind or disagree with the 45K EAD's that were given out as a result of the mess - but am very disappointed with finding out that people ahead were able to get their GC's while others ahead in line still left holding the bag!! What is the use of a Priority date if that's the case!! Why even have a system!! Getting tired of putting my and my family's life on hold - waiting on a hope!!
What a pity! I need to start a business of my own - start up - that's currently on hold due to this mess! Too many people's hopes, ambitions, plans, lives being put on hold just so the department can build their Inventory!!!! We are in the 21st century - we should be able to build out the inventory based on the filings, I-140's, etc. If you feel you are going to be short - overshoot the priority date by a month - or have separate dates for accepting applications and approving GC's !!!!! Anything else would better than the current option they engaged in.
SportsFans,
I am not saying that Rowers would sue DOS/USCIS.
I am talking about immigration lawyers talking about suing DOS/USCIS.
As everyone knows, every organization/dept should follow LAW, it appears that DOS Violated their statutory laws.
NO ONE IS ABOVE LAW..
Also, I agree, I won't file a case, if I was one among them ..
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