EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[trackright]

Yes.. Our 485 shows "Acceptance" too and 06/02/2012 as last updated date.

[Mavrick]

Q,

Can we associate any significance to this?

Yes.. Our 485 shows "Acceptance" too and 06/02/2012 as last updated date.

[qesehmk]

Not much - other than basically USCIS is now getting their hands around all the cases they took in over last 4-5 months. Acceptance is not preadjudication. But it probably does indicate some basic quality check for required documents done and case is complete.

Q,

Can we associate any significance to this?

[vizcard]

Not much - other than basically USCIS is now getting their hands around all the cases they took in over last 4-5 months. Acceptance is not preadjudication. But it probably does indicate some basic quality check for required documents done and case is complete.

This is correct. It just means that they have received the packet in completion and will be placed in queue to be processed.

[tatikonda]

I am trying to predict the movement, which many experts already did.. Please feel free to find loops in this theory ..

2nd Preference
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total
January 57 1,068 1,301 1,026 3,452
February 52 1,017 1,260 1,089 3,418
March 53 1,176 1,384 1,286 3,899
April 117 1,491 1,207 1,511 4,326
May 206 1,338 1,042 2,586
June 311 1,372 1,069 2,752
July 504 1,193 984 2,681
August 516 1,175 801 2,492
September 598 1,066 1,058 2,722
October 711 1,366 1,143 3,220
November 905 1,279 993 3,177
December 874 1,595 1,187 3,656
Total 4,904 15,136 13,429 4,912 0 0 38,381

This is from May Inventory Data 2012.
Assuming this is correct data ( even though many experts (Ron Gotcher ) thinks this is incorrect data ) and there is no further spill over in FY2012.

In Oct 2012 - According to Rule - not more than 27 % of visa should be given in Q1/Q2/Q3 -
So Q1 allocated visa in EB2 Categories would be ~11K Visa. Assuming 3~ Spill over from EB1,
DOS would be able to allocate 14K Visas for Eb2.

So, Assuming in these 14K visas, 6K Visa goes EB2ROW,
8k Visa should be there, which should clear April 2008.

Rest movement should be in Q2, Q2 SpillOver depends on Q1 Demand.

[tatikonda]

Are these EB2I pending numbers only? Or its EB2IC combined?


Update: I looked it up. You need to add EB2C numbers to arrive at date estimate.

.

I am thinking of 8k visa spill over to EB2-I/C, and inventory shows
2007 - India + China = 1046 + 4904 = 5960 = ~6k.

So Remaining 2K visas, may be Feb 2008 only, ( China for 2008 is real now ~ 200/Month).

[usernameisnotvalid]

For Feb filers at least, at this stage I guess it is more than that. If you look at the date for eg in my case it is 'Acceptance' state but it says "On Feb 6, 2012 we received.." and 'Acceptance' means they will check for accuracy etc. and issue a receipt which they did in Feb!

Because they don't have 'Pre-Adj' status so it is completely possible that 'Acceptance' status after 3 months means 'Pre-Adj'.


BTW for my son it is 'Initial Review' and for myself and my wife it is 'Acceptance'!

Any thoughts?

This is correct. It just means that they have received the packet in completion and will be placed in queue to be processed.

[vizcard]

For Feb filers at least, at this stage I guess it is more than that. If you look at the date for eg in my case it is 'Acceptance' state but it says "On Feb 6, 2012 we received.." and 'Acceptance' means they will check for accuracy etc. and issue a receipt which they did in Feb!

Because they don't have 'Pre-Adj' status so it is completely possible that 'Acceptance' status after 3 months means 'Pre-Adj'.


BTW for my son it is 'Initial Review' and for myself and my wife it is 'Acceptance'!

Any thoughts?

I'm a Jan filer and could see my cases online from day 1. It goes from Acceptance to Initial Review. Mine right now still says Initial Review. In any case, it doesn't matter what it says now. One could get a RFE at any time even after you get current again. So until the status says Decision or Post Decision, it really is not telling you thing.

[self.coach]

I see my case finally on USCIS, just as acceptance. Also got medical RFE for spouse - she was pregnant when the time came for filling medical form, so we got 'waiver' by the immigration doctor as she could not get x-rays (tb test required) and vaccinations.

And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".

[qesehmk]

Congrats to the new baby. Wish her all the happiness, health and weath. Congrats Self.Coach.

And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".

[Kanmani]

Guys,

Please bear with me for posting this question here but your guidance to my current situation is much required.

My 2nd H1-B extension completes on Sept 30th -2012 and I am up for another Three Year extension based on the I-140 approved (PD July-2010 ) with my current Employer A .

If in any event my H1-B extension gets rejected with my current employer, I am planning to apply for an extension through one the clients that I previously worked with.

So in such scenario will this client ( Employer B) be eligible to file for three year H1-B for me based on a I-140 that is held/owned by Employer A?

Appreciate your advice in this matter.

Regards,

Prabhas

YES for sure.

[Kanmani]

I see my case finally on USCIS, just as acceptance. Also got medical RFE for spouse - she was pregnant when the time came for filling medical form, so we got 'waiver' by the immigration doctor as she could not get x-rays (tb test required) and vaccinations.

And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".

Self coach, Congratulations on the birth of your beautiful baby. Welcome Kushi!

In my observance, 90% of the primary and dependant cases are worked together, so it shows the acceptance status also mean that there is a good possibility of those already got pre-adjudicated . Just a thought. All the best .

[Prabhas]

Thank You very much for your response Kanmani.

Self Coach: Congratulations on your new born baby. Hope both mother and baby are going great and healthy!

Prabhas

[dec2007]

Hello Q,

Do you still expect the dates to move Q12008 in 2012? After recent discussions on forum, has anything changed that alters your prediction.

Thank You
Dec2007

[vizcard]

self.coach - congratulations on the birth of Khushi. Its moments like this that make the whole immigration stuff seem very petty.

[qesehmk]

Dec2007 - I recently updated the head. It is good as it is. I am still bullish on movements this year itself.

Hello Q,

Do you still expect the dates to move Q12008 in 2012? After recent discussions on forum, has anything changed that alters your prediction.

Thank You
Dec2007

[Spectator]

I have moved a number of posts that are better suited to the Discussion of Bills that remove the Per Country Limits - H.R.2161, H.R.3012, H.R.3119 thread.

Let's keep the discussion in that thread.

[Spectator]

Quoted directly from the Trackitt post:

Quoted from Chinese EB forum, I don't know the source yet.

EB-2 Worldwide Cut-Off Expected in July
June 6, 2012
Executive Summary

A senior State Department official said that demand for EB-2 worldwide will
exceed availability next month, requiring the imposition of a priority date
cut-off. EB-2 worldwide could become unavailable before the end of the
fiscal year.

The State Department is expected to impose a worldwide priority date cut-off
for the EB-2 category in July, when demand is likely to exceed the number
of remaining EB-2 immigrant visas. According to a senior official, EB-2
could become unavailable worldwide before the end of this fiscal year if
high demand persists.

The exact cut-off date will not be known until the State Department
publishes the July Visa Bulletin in the coming days. EB-2 worldwide will
remain current until June 30. Qualified EB-2 foreign nationals except those
born in India or mainland China should be able to submit applications for
adjustment of status or an immigrant visa through that date. EB-2 became
unavailable for India and mainland China at the beginning of this month.

When the FY 2013 immigrant visa quota becomes available on October 1, 2012,
the India/China cut-off is expected to be a Summer 2007 date. EB-2 worldwide
should be current.

The quote also talks about EB2-IC opening FY2013 with a Summer 2007 Cut Off Date, which I have mentioned previously is very likely.

The source appears to be mitbbs.com (this article or this article)

[vizcard]

Quoted directly from the Trackitt post:



The quote also talks about EB2-IC opening FY2013 with a Summer 2007 Cut Off Date, which I have mentioned previously is very likely.

The source appears to be mitbbs.com (this article or this article)

Spec - I would agree that FY13 opening with Summer 2007 is the most likely scenario. However, I do believe it will move to Fall 2007 (possibly Oct/Nov 2007) by end of Q1. My sense is since this year has been a - pardon my french - a complete cluster from the DOS perspective, they won't have QSP at all in Q1 and possibly even Q2.

[murali83]

I still have a doubt if any cod will be imposed on eb2-row. I have no numbers to back my argument. The only reason I say this because, in this fy 2012, someone from uscis was always giving out public statements about the possible cutoff dates (in case of any major changes). But since nothing has come as of now, I am just assuming that eb2-row demand is not as high as expected.

[Spectator]

I have moved some posts relating to status updates to the Post I-485 Filing thread.

I have also moved the answers to ravisekhar's H1B question to the other location it was asked.

[qesehmk]

Spec
Just read through your trackitt comparison data. Thank you for such painstaking efforts. It looks like EB1 could give 5K and EB4+EB5 at least 8K. The 5K can be consumed by ROW to keep current through Sep 2012. Perhaps 8K is what EB2IC receives? Wouldn't that bring the dates at least to Jan 2008 by Sep 2012? Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec
Just read through your trackitt comparison data. Thank you for such painstaking efforts. It looks like EB1 could give 5K and EB4+EB5 at least 8K. The 5K can be consumed by ROW to keep current through Sep 2012. Perhaps 8K is what EB2IC receives? Wouldn't that bring the dates at least to Jan 2008 by Sep 2012? Am I missing something?

Q,

Thanks for the compliment. It has been quite challenging this year to know how many "real" approvals that converts to.

I think what you are potentially missing is that all those numbers from EB4/EB5 and EB1 (and more) have already been effectively allocated to EB2-IC for approvals made to date. Realistically, there is very little chance of any more visas being available to EB2-IC this year.

I think EB2-IC has already received at the lower end of 23-25k visas before becoming Unavailable.

Using 23k, Spillover required to service that number is 23.0 - 5.6 = 17.4k

That means, using your numbers, EB2-ROW has to provide 17.4 - 13.0 = 4.4k of spillover to EB2-IC in addition to the 13k provided by EB4/EB5/EB1.

The EB2-WW allocation is 34.4k, so if EB2-WW were to exceed 30k then they would have to retrogress.

As best I can tell, EB2-ROW seems to be heading for around 25-26k at the current rate and EB2-MP might use 3-4k based on historic figures.

It would be very very close. The error margin in the figures easily covers both possibilities.

For reference, EB2-WW might have used 33.3k in FY2011, if EB2-IC used 33.5k.

In fact, I am not sure EB4/EB5 will provide 8k spare visas. Last year saw an unusually low number of EB4 approvals, considering EB4 reached the limit in FY2009 and slightly exceeded it in FY2010. Of course, it is virtually impossible to tell, but that fact does worry me. I have never seen any information about EB4 usage during the year, so you might well be right.

A saving grace might be if some of the ongoing problems in EB5 do not get resolved. USCIS have changed the rules recently which has led to a backlog of cases. I feel a Class Action Lawsuit is possible if it isn't sorted out, but that takes time.

It is also worrying that CO even mentioned the possibility of EB1 having a Cut Off date at the end of the year. It may be bluff, but it speaks of the potential for more EB1 approvals than I am expecting (35-36k at current rate).

To be honest, I can't quite work that one out. Even if CO had mentally allocated any unused EB4/EB5 visas for EB2-IC, the law is clear. Spare visas from EB4/EB5 must fall up for use by EB1 first. Using your number of 8k spare visas from EB4/EB5, EB1 could only retrogress if they used more than 48k visas, which I don't think is possible unless the entire backlog was also cleared. Very odd.

If EB2-WW does have a Cut Off Date imposed in the July Bulletin, as some have suggested, that would be earlier than I had expected. It might mean either EB2-IC approvals are higher than I have calculated, or EB2-WW approvals are higher than I have calculated, or not as much Spillover will be available as I thought, or a combination of all the previous.

[openaccount]

July 2012-Demand Data released:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2ROW:250

EB2I--17850
EB2C:4100

EB2IC June DD to July difference--->6250, uscis pre-ajudicated 6250 applications in May

[vedu]

Openaccount,

Thanks for the heads up on the demand data. Based on the EB2 ROW cumulative demand of 250, I don't see that category retrogressing, at least in July. May be that news was a rumor after all. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin.

Demand Data released:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2ROW:250

EB2I--17850
EB2C:4100

EB2IC June DD to July difference--->6250, uscis pre-ajudicated 6250 applications in May