An interesting thing to note here is that for China, just the regular quota would be sufficient to go all the way till the end of 2008. India would consume all the spillover in FY2013.
An interesting thing to note here is that for China, just the regular quota would be sufficient to go all the way till the end of 2008. India would consume all the spillover in FY2013.
Thanks again.Originally Posted by kd2008
Guys I have a question - does USCIS process 485 application based on priority date or receipt date? My PD is 12/14/07 and I was only able to file on April 18th. Wondering if 2008 people will get their greencards before me?
Thanks
very good observation
CM just posted this comment on his blog after the demand data was out.
I just now finished talking to our attorney friend, he is suggesting that EB2-IC is becoming 'U' in coming bulletin. There is also a chance that EB2-ROW/M/P will have cut-off dates assigned to them in July visa bulletin. He sounded confident about this.
Lets see what will happen. Good Luck.
Here is the link
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html
It appears atleast all the 2008 cases are touched and either been issued RFE or waiting for BG checks (Since some of the 2009 cases are already pre-adjudicated, this number could be minimal). Next demand data should make things clear but I think it might take less than 20,000 SOFAD for fy2013 to clear 2008 which seems verymuch possible. at what point of fy2013 we will see 2009 Jan1 PD is anybodys guess
Imposing U on EB2IC (officially) will make things better in October, smaller backlog from EB1, EB2ROW helps CO to use as many numbers towards EB2IC early in the fy
kd,
I agree.
The numbers are higher than I had expected, but that probably just means USCIS are pre-adjudicating them a bit faster than I thought they could.
I don't think we can speculate on the final numbers with just this single data point, especially as so many cases are still probably out for RFE. I was expecting it to take several months for USCIS to work through the backlog.
But if the cases essentially started being added to the Demand Data from March 23 (when internal retrogression to Aug 15, 2007 was announced), then USCIS appeared to have pre-adjudicated 15.5k EB2-IC cases in 46 days, or about 10k / month. That is pretty impressive, considering they still had other Categories / Countries to adjudicate as well.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Once a PD is set any case with PD lesser than current PD is game for approval as long as visas are available. In your case whenever PD moves beyond your PD your case can get approved irrespective of RD.
RD was very relevant when there was rapid forward movement in Oct 11 to Mar 12 and folks in 2008 got GCs before 2007 based on an earlier RD. Now I dont think RD matters much as there will be SFM (hopefully). SFM is an acronym coined by the folks here, Sustainable Forward Movement
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
Sportsfan,
Thats a pretty high number. Even if 50% of Jan to Mar 15 2008 and 15% (I personally would go with 10-12%) of the rest of 2008 were to be issued visas, and assuming density of approx 2000 a month, they could not have issued any more than 6000 for 2008 pd's.
I don't think numbers are too bad. We have 23.5K EB2I PERM in 2008. Without DD, we would expect 23.5K 485 applications with 2008 PD or a 2K/month density. We are going to stay below this.
Lets assume that the density is a uniform X/month in 2008. Further assume that 50% of applicants till Mar-15 have been approved and 15% of applicants in rest of 2008 have been approved. Finally, lets assume that 80% unapproved Dec VB is pre-adj'ed and 50% of unapproved Jan VB is pre-adj'ed. This will give us the following:
2.5X * 0.5 * 0.8 + 9.5X * 0.85 * 0.5 = 7.5K => X ~ 1.5K/month
This shows a demand destruction of 25% (density going from 2K/month as expected from PERM of 23.5K to 1.5K/month).
Note that the situation is perhaps better than this since latter months of 2008 are less dense than first few months of 2008 (contrary to the uniform X assumed above).
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I did a quick OR based calculation. I am assuming OR of 0.75 for both PD2008/09.
Pre 2008 --> 2500 in demand data + 500 potential increase = 3K
PD2008 --> 28000(EB2/3IC PERM) * .75 = 21000 - 5000(approx approved) = 16K
PD2009 --> 18000(EB2/3IC PERM) * .75 = 13.5K
So we need around 33-35K to clear upto PD 2009 if above assumptions are true. Does not look that bad for now.
Last edited by suninphx; 05-08-2012 at 04:28 PM.
Demand data is out - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or let’s rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood is the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.
Good to hear from you Teddy after a long time. So basically it seems from above all posts that the scenario for EB2IC is not as bad as expected and the dates should start moving at reasonable pace come Oct 2012 when new quota opens.
However, my mind is still fixated on the quote from CO in May visa bulletin.
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.
I am still wondering whether to take this quote on its face value or not pay much attention to it. I don't even know how CO or USCIS/DOS is planning to do this. But I sincerely wish CO sticks to his words and brings the dates back in reasonable time.
Teddy
I wouldn't put much trust in 2009 and 2010 numbers since its quite possible USCIS hasn't even touched most of those cases - let alone them be documentarily qualified or not.
To understand how big the overall pipeline is going to be - the best data to look at would be USCIS inventory since that reports all cases - not just documentarily qualified ones.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Sure - but USCIS has gone into super-secret-mode. Every piece if data is coming late - we still don't have the annual report for FY2011 that finished 7 months back. Who knows when (and if) they will publish the next inventory.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
looks like they have been publishing inventory report in May since last 2 years. we can hope for one by this month's end.
PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I
Sportsfan,
Hate to debate this again. But i guess we agree to disagree. One of purposes of retrogression is to ensure that gc's are issued with some order to them. I believe USCIS will pre-adjudicate all 2008 and most of the 2009 cases well before september 2012. There is no reason for them to push deep and then retrogress again. They will only do what you have suggested if they have pre-adjudicated cases randomly and a whole lot of cases are pending. Looking at the demand data they seem pretty fast and orderly. So i am not going to guess on possible cod's. I would just say that all cases filed until march 30 will be pre- adjudicated by sep 30.
On a side note, if my LUD is not changing, does that mean they have not touched my file.
Cheers
Q, I have been part of that school of thought that did believe that 35K should be the total outstanding number till May 2010. However looking at the demand data being just at 15K odd where I believe that most of 2008 cases atleast 80% of the pending ones are represented I have doubts that the number would actually increase to 35K. The 2009 and 2010 numbers are being under-reported for sure. 2009 is expected to be a weak year so the expected addition for all deficiencies would be around 10K - 12K range which makes it 27K this is significantly short of 35K. The last inventory was way off I hope this one is better. Even for the pre-207 preadjudicated inventory did we see a significant difference between the inventory being at 14K while demand data being just 8.5K, possibly they have not been cleaning the denials, withdrawals, porting cases from there very efficiently. Also 2009 is almost like pristine zone once the inventory is out we can compute demand destruction OR from there.
Exactly Sportsfan
Just one more thing. I dont quite understand the need to retogress. I think they would just stall at a date which matches lets say 20k visas. So my point is if they have 40 k predadjudicated, they move to a date which matches 20 k and then stop there. They would only retrogress if they moved beyond the line of 20k or if they have not preadjudicated properly and still have some pending before the date to which they moved or they have heavy porting.
On a side note, when you say 7.5k 2008, isn't that just india. Should n't we add china as well?
Sun, I partially agree with your numbers ( Still hanging with my original but slightly different OR of .6)
Sports,Congratulations! on your EAD/AP approval .
In my opinion NSC is still processing their final batch 2008 numbers (not RFE cases), both TSC and NSC have 2008 RFE cases pending.
As I said earlier TSC has started 2009 cases from the 2nd week of April and still processing .
DOS is currently issuing visa numbers to USCIS and other consular posts through online process. The IO could get a visa number by just entering his ID and few details online. For the ROW countries they are always within their per country limit and always current and there is no reason any single country could get 2800 in a single day . But in the case of India during these intake seasons, if the PD is current, there is a possibility that India may be allotted visas in thousands within a short span of time. This could be one of the reasons for retrogression.
Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory published as of may 3rd.....if anyone already posted this let me know will remove the link
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Jesus, that was unexpected! And it's an Excel file too. Wasn't somebody calling USCIS tardy upthread?
they absolutely had to retrogress.
1. They couldn't give anyone and everyone up to May 2010 GCs. The numbers just don't support it.
2. Moving it to Aug 2007 is reasonable as they want to make sure that any remaining visas go to the earliest PDs - most likely the ones who have been waiting since the beginning of time.
3. Now that they have a better read on numbers, they can start moving in a more systematic form.
PS: I don't want to derail the thread from calculation but I think if someone ports from EB3 to EB2, they shouldn't be allowed to retain their PDs. The criteria really should be the date someone with appropriate qualifications applies in a particular category. If person A was qualified for EB2 in 2008, he/ she should have preference over someone who qualified for EB2 in 2010. To apply it to the current scenario, a Aug 14, 2007 EB3 applicant who ported over to EB2 in 2011 (i.e. earned EB2 credentials in 2011) will be ahead of a Aug 15, 2007 EB2 applicant. How does that make sense?
I'm going to get off my soap box now .. .back to your regularly scheduled programming.
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