EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[drysnow]

If the concept of number allotted at the time of RFE is true, then is it a Just coincidence that two cases of pre 08/15/2007 are approved on 1st day of May?

[Spectator]

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

Date Added to Trackitt

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 -- Apr 30 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 ----- 156 (+ 1 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 ----- 529 (+ 2 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 ----- 739 (+ 11 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 ----- 931 (+ 24 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 ----- 786 (+ 33 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 ----- 191 (+ 19 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date

Month Received By USCIS

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April ---- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 5 -------- 6 -------- 2 ------- 50
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 3 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ------ 156
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 2 ------ 529
December VB ------------------------------------- 608 ------- 84 -------- 27 ------- 14 -------- 6 ------ 739
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 760 ------- 133 ------- 17 ------- 21 ------ 931
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 664 ------ 104 ------- 18 ------ 786
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 175 ------- 16 ------ 191

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 676 ------ 865 ------- 839 ------ 323 ------- 65 ---- 3,382


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 22.00% ---- 22.00% --- 16.00% --- 14.00% ---- 10.00% --- 12.00% ---- 4.00%
October VB ------------ 79.49% ---- 10.26% ---- 1.92% ---- 3.85% ----- 3.21% ---- 1.28% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.44% --- 10.78% ---- 1.51% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.38%
December VB ---------------------------------- 82.27% --- 11.37% ----- 3.65% ---- 1.89% ---- 0.81%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 81.63% ---- 14.29% ---- 1.83% ---- 2.26%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 84.48% --- 13.23% ---- 2.29%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 91.62% ---- 8.38%


More data can be found here.

[rasknorr]

Will there be any chance of moving a little bit further or waste of time even thinking about it...

[Spectator]

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012

Looking at the user's posts, there is a back story to this.

He was told he was approved on February 7, 2012, so it appears the visa was requested then.

Subsequently, an RFE was issued on February 9 regarding a name discrepancy he raised during the fingerprint appointment.

The RFE response was received by USCIS on April 25 and the approval was made on April 30.

It appears to be quite an unusual case.

[gc2008]

Here is another EB2I approval today from Trackitt.

http://www.trackitt.com/member/EB2IAug112007

[openaccount]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/201...-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.

[Spectator]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/201...-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.

Thanks.

I'm looking forward to reading the full minutes from that meeting.

To put things in to context, although only 1.6k I-526 were approved in FY2011, the number of EB5 visas used in FY2011 was 3.3k.

The average monthly I-526 approvals in FY2011 was 131. To date, in FY2012, the average is 350 per month, an increase of 267%.

The backlog of I-526, which was only about 1.2k at the beginning of FY2011 has now increased to 3k.

[pdmay2008]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/201...-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.

First two quarters it is 2101. Looks like there will be less spill over from EB5 this year. Regardless CO already applied spill over to EB2IC based on his estimates. He might play carefully next year.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Statistics can be found here.

For those that don't know about the turmoil that EB5 is going through regarding USCIS moving the goalposts (specifically Tenant Occupancy), this post and this post should give you an idea of the current climate.

[dec2007]

Q,

I have just read your predictions for 2012 and 2013 in the first page.

You are saying Q1 2008 should be cleared in 2012. Do you mean by Oct 2012, all PDs before Q1 2008 will get green cards? if so, CO should start moving dates starting July or August of this year, right?

My PD is Dec 31,07. Have to make critical career decision. Please let me know the chances of me receiving GC before October/November 2012.

thank you.

[qesehmk]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.

Q,

I have just read your predictions for 2012 and 2013 in the first page.

You are saying Q1 2008 should be cleared in 2012. Do you mean by Oct 2012, all PDs before Q1 2008 will get green cards? if so, CO should start moving dates starting July or August of this year, right?

My PD is Dec 31,07. Have to make critical career decision. Please let me know the chances of me receiving GC before October/November 2012.

thank you.

[dec2007]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.

thank you Q. yaa..my amended 140 petition has delayed things..it got approved recently..by then dates have retrogressed.

[murali83]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.

Hi Q,

Sorry to bug you on this, but could you explain the 8k figure for 2008 pd's.

Just 50% of the filers with pd's from jan 1 2008 to mar 15 2008, and 10-11% of the filers for the rest of 2008 have been approved. So even with a maximalist number of 2300 density per month, i see at max, 5k visas being given to 2008 pd's.

Cheers

Murali

[qesehmk]

murali

the last i checked trackitt - it showed 30% of 2008 folks approved. 30% of 24K annual demand is approx 8K.

Hi Q,

Sorry to bug you on this, but could you explain the 8k figure for 2008 pd's.

Just 50% of the filers with pd's from jan 1 2008 to mar 15 2008, and 10-11% of the filers for the rest of 2008 have been approved. So even with a maximalist number of 2300 density per month, i see at max, 5k visas being given to 2008 pd's.

Cheers

Murali

[imdeng]

Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5641.html

[imdeng]

The only link live is the Non-Immigrant Visa issue numbers (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5641.html) - and the only thing of interest for us there is the H visa numbers. So, here is a compilation of H visa issuance for all countries with more than 5K visas in last 3 years (Mexico numbers are funky since they include H2 visas for agricultural workers):

Country---------FY09--------FY10--------FY11
India-----------90,702------97,907------120,007
China-----------12,826------14,671------14,443
S. Korea--------5,495-------5,961-------5,835
Philippines-----9,512-------8,321-------5,685
UK--------------4,997-------6,106-------6,645
Mexico----------89,692------90,431------93,310
Total-----------278,168-----288,182-----312,082

Any inferences:
1. H-visa issuance is increasing, so potential GC queue is increasing as well. Although much of the change comes from India - so EB2I is in for a bad time as the temporary halt in H-India numbers due to recession reverses itself and all these additional H-India holders join the EB2I queue in a couple years
2. H-visa for countries other than India seems steady despite the economy recovering. So, perhaps EB2ROW is not going to go up much in coming years and we will continue to see some horizontal spillover from them to EB2IC
3. H-visa demand from China is quite low - this points to lower GC number demand from EB2C - however, H-visa holders accounts for lower portion of EB2C than it does for EB2I - so this is not quite a reliable indicator.
4. S. Korea is holding steady, UK is growing gradually and Philippines is down significantly - overall I would say that this is positive for spillover from EB2ROW but negative for wait times for new EB2I folks.

PS> Ahh... the beauty of fixed-width-font-table A.K.A Spec's style :-)

Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5641.html

[natvyas]

I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5641.html

imdeng,

I noticed it was up as soon as it was updated as well.

DOS seem very reluctant to actually publish the figures this year.

The only link live is the Non-Immigrant Visa issue numbers (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5641.html) - and the only thing of interest for us there is the H visa numbers. So, here is a compilation of H visa issuance for all countries with more than 5K visas in last 3 years (Mexico numbers are funky since they include H2 visas for agricultural workers):

Country---------FY09--------FY10--------FY11
India-----------90,702------97,907------120,007
China-----------12,826------14,671------14,443
S. Korea--------5,495-------5,961-------5,835
Philippines-----9,512-------8,321-------5,685
UK--------------4,997-------6,106-------6,645
Mexico----------89,692------90,431------93,310
Total-----------278,168-----288,182-----312,082

Any inferences:
1. H-visa issuance is increasing, so potential GC queue is increasing as well. Although much of the change comes from India - so EB2I is in for a bad time as the temporary halt in H-India numbers due to recession reverses itself and all these additional H-India holders join the EB2I queue in a couple years
2. H-visa for countries other than India seems steady despite the economy recovering. So, perhaps EB2ROW is not going to go up much in coming years and we will continue to see some horizontal spillover from them to EB2IC
3. H-visa demand from China is quite low - this points to lower GC number demand from EB2C - however, H-visa holders accounts for lower portion of EB2C than it does for EB2I - so this is not quite a reliable indicator.
4. S. Korea is holding steady, UK is growing gradually and Philippines is down significantly - overall I would say that this is positive for spillover from EB2ROW but negative for wait times for new EB2I folks.

PS> Ahh... the beauty of fixed-width-font-table A.K.A Spec's style :-)

imdeng,

That is a very nice summary indeed. I can't fault your logic. Good spot about the H2 visas.

In addition to H issuances, India also uses about 40% of all L issuances as well, which is another significant source of demand for the immigrant queue. It is a bit lower this year, but fluctuates anyway. Possibly it reflects the greater scrutiny the category appears to be receiving. Overall L visas issuance increased very slightly last year.

Perhaps you want to present the data in the same format as you have for H visa issuances.

[qesehmk]

It sure doesnt hurt. But I am not sure I would've done that when the dates have retrogressed.

I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

[abcx13]

imdeng,

I noticed it was up as soon as it was updated as well.

DOS seem very reluctant to actually publish the figures this year.


imdeng,

That is a very nice summary indeed. I can't fault your logic. Good spot about the H2 visas.

In addition to H issuances, India also uses about 40% of all L issuances as well, which is another significant source of demand for the immigrant queue. It is a bit lower this year, but fluctuates anyway. Possibly it reflects the greater scrutiny the category appears to be receiving. Overall L visas issuance increased very slightly last year.

Perhaps you want to present the data in the same format as you have for H visa issuances.

It is crazy that the Indian H1 numbers are so high given the record rate at which RFEs, 221(g)s and denials have been issued. One wonders if the Indian bodyshops and IT companies are just flooding the system to make up. Though I guess as the EB3 backlog gets worse (I guess every year Indians apply in excess of the quota) H1B renewals will keep getting higher, right, because there are now more people getting H1B renewals while waiting for their PD to become current? Although I don't think that explains the jump...

[redsox2009]

One thing keeps me puzzling is that, State Dept couldn't run the estimates for an quarter and how can they promise that they can achieve target within a year. That failed on short term basis and their long term plan doesn't have clean exit for them.

[natvyas]

My PD is 24th march 08

I'm expecting to get my GC by December 2012. Am I being too aggressive in my expectation?

Thanks
Nat

[imdeng]

I think that's reasonable. 2008 Q1 should be cleared in FY13Q1 but only in case that they continue to do quarterly spillover.

My PD is 24th march 08

I'm expecting to get my GC by December 2012. Am I being too aggressive in my expectation?

Thanks
Nat

[LUVSPIDER]

I have been a silent everyday watcher of this thread and it's been great. Thank you to all the Gurus for their time & willingness to share their knowledge.

I have one query on Travel Document for child & appreciate your response. Please remove this after I get a response as it is not relevant to calculations.

My PD ( EB2-I,26-JAN-2010) became current in MARCH-2012 bulletin. I filed our I-485 (RD 13-MAR) for me, my wife & kid(4 years).We didn't apply EAD for my son, we just applied for I-131-travel document. We filed with TSC.

Me & my wife received our combo EAD cards with 1 year validity on 27-APR. But we didn't receive my son's I-131-Travel document approval yet. The online status shows that the case is not found.

My query is

1) Will all the family cases be approved in one go or will they process independently.

2) Did anyone gone thru this situation before?

3) What will be my next options ? Did anybody called the customer service 1-800-375-5283 before & do we need to wait for 90 days before we call them?

Thanking you in advance for your time & responses.

Cheers

[pdfeb09]

I have been a silent everyday watcher of this thread and it's been great. Thank you to all the Gurus for their time & willingness to share their knowledge.

I have one query on Travel Document for child & appreciate your response. Please remove this after I get a response as it is not relevant to calculations.

My PD ( EB2-I,26-JAN-2010) became current in MARCH-2012 bulletin. I filed our I-485 (RD 13-MAR) for me, my wife & kid(4 years).We didn't apply EAD for my son, we just applied for I-131-travel document. We filed with TSC.

Me & my wife received our combo EAD cards with 1 year validity on 27-APR. But we didn't receive my son's I-131-Travel document approval yet. The online status shows that the case is not found.

My query is

1) Will all the family cases be approved in one go or will they process independently.

2) Did anyone gone thru this situation before?

3) What will be my next options ? Did anybody called the customer service 1-800-375-5283 before & do we need to wait for 90 days before we call them?

Thanking you in advance for your time & responses.

Cheers

I would call the customer service right away. L1 will try to assess your situation and will most probably transfer you to L2. L2 has access to the data that L1 doesn't and will tell you what's going on with your kid's application. Good luck !