EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Spec i know you are very particular about not posting valueless things and so you delete what you think doesn't add value. But people value whatever you say anyway. So don't delete your own stuff

p.s. - BTW I feel so clueless about the talk about spreadsheet and all. Where are these spreadsheets? Many times I wonder whether we should setup a tracker here that will give us better data on this forum. But the thought of modifying this forum software sends chills down my spine. This is such a beautiful software - I don't want to screw it up by some custom code.

I think I have just been told off and asked to report to the Headmaster! Am I going to be caned?

On the approvals front, the number of EB2 approvals to the end of March appear to make it quite difficult for CO to have stayed within the 54% limit, since EB2-WW and EB3 both seem to have quite normal approval levels. I don't think EB1 can be described as having "low" approvals. We also know a little bit about EB5, so only EB4 numbers are an entire mystery. I've tried all sorts of permutations and cannot reach a figure as low as 54%. Perhaps that is something to discuss. I wonder if that is why April has been quite so quiet.

PS I've restored my very uninteresting post.

PPS I too am finding the total lack of activity anywhere rather frustrating.

[imdeng]

Shouldn't USCIS be out with its final report of the visa office for FY2011 already? I thought Jan is the usual time for the report to come out - it is already six months since the FY ended.

No demand data, inventory data coming late, annual report coming late - USCIS is surely dragging its feet. Compare that to the jet-speed with which CO seems to be moving these days.

[qesehmk]

Spec -

Here is how I look at it.

For 2007 post April which is where bulk of 2012 visas have gone, 70% are approved (source trackitt & unupdated cases are accounted for).
70% of 9 months for EB2IC demand @2.5K = ~15.5K.

For 2008 30% are approved = 30% * 12 months * 2.5K = ~8.5K

So total EB2IC approvals are 24K.

Is it possible? May be since out of the 2 quarters supply of 70K (less 20K for EB3) = 50K. EB2ROW may have consumed 10K. So 16K between EB1 EB4 EB5 is not unimaginable.

Lets try to work the otherway round. If the above is true - then from 2007, we still have left 30% * 9 months * 2.5K = 6.75K. Similraly for 2008 we have left 70% * 12 months * 2.5K = 21K

So total to get to the end of 2008 = ~28K.

As you can see this whole game is hinged on 2.5K per month. So is that a true number anymore - although historically last few years it has held true? Lets see how low it could be.

Lets assume the worst. That EB5 consumed 2.5K. EB4 5K EB3 20K EB1 17K EB2ROW 12K = 56.5K.
That still leaves 13.5K approvals for EB2IC. Lets call the months EB2IC = XK

70% * 9 * X + 30% * 12 * X = 13.5K

This solves X = 1.4K per month.

So to hold the second scenario true, there has to be close to 40% demand destruction in EB2IC.

But then this scenario does not gel well with ROW becoming unavailable. So I am more gravitated towards first where ROW and/or EB1 are starved and EB2IC were given 24K during Q1 and Q2. But that means there is no demand destruction (or very little if any)

Which is why I firmly believe that Q1 2008 where we expect EB2IC backlog will land by Sep 2012.

Tear this apart!

On the approvals front, the number of EB2 approvals to the end of March appear to make it quite difficult for CO to have stayed within the 54% limit, since EB2-WW and EB3 both seem to have quite normal approval levels. I don't think EB1 can be described as having "low" approvals. We also know a little bit about EB5, so only EB4 numbers are an entire mystery. I've tried all sorts of permutations and cannot reach a figure as low as 54%. Perhaps that is something to discuss.

[redsox2009]

For 2007 post April which is where bulk of 2012 visas have gone, 70% are approved (source trackitt & unupdated cases are accounted for).
70% of 9 months for EB2IC demand @2.5K = ~15.5K.

For 2008 30% are approved = 30% * 12 months * 2.5K = ~8.5K

Don't you think 2.5K per month is a high number.

[qesehmk]

2.5k per month is a historically OK no for eb2ic. However it is possible that in the aftermath of fin crisis it has reduced. It may have reduced to 1.7k. But lets see - if we assume everybody else other than EB2IC consumed same as 2011 rate then for Q1+Q2 following consumption would exist:
EB1 = 12.5KK
EB4 = 3K
EB5 = 1.8K
EB3 = 20K (since backlogged)
EB2ROW = 13K


That leaves approx 20K for EB2IC.

so if
70% * 9 * X + 30% * 12 * X = 20K

It still comes in at 2K per month demand for EB2IC implying following remaining demand for 2007/08.
30%*9*2 + 70%*12*2 = ~22K.

Is it possible that EB2IC will receive 22K in H2 of 2012? It is not impossible if the same 2011 magic were to happen to EB2IC where overall EB2IC received 66K. But even then EB2IC consumed probably 32-36K implying ROW consumption of at least 20-24K.

So assuming ROW will consume same as prior FY and so does everybody else other than EB2IC implies that max additional SOFAD for EB2IC will be 0-14K MAX.

Now if we were to take CO at his word then we shouldn't expect much in H2 at all. Honestly - I think CO has concluded prematurely that there are no visas left. I do agree w Teddy that we should receive at least 5K - which will put us over Dec 2007. May be EB2IC will receive more ... but the likelyhood to clear beyond Q12008 are unrealistic IMHO.

Don't you think 2.5K per month is a high number.

[vizcard]

Now if we were to take CO at his word then we shouldn't expect much in H2 at all. Honestly - I think CO has concluded prematurely that there are no visas left. I do agree w Teddy that we should receive at least 5K - which will put us over Dec 2007. May be EB2IC will receive more ... but the likelyhood to clear beyond Q12008 are realistic IMHO.

Did you mean "unrealistic" there? Going beyond Mar 2008 is remote at best so while there is a chance (I'm getting visions of Dumb and Dumber here), I don't think its going to happen.

[qesehmk]

Thx. Corrected original post. I meant unrealistic.

Did you mean "unrealistic" there? Going beyond Mar 2008 is remote at best so while there is a chance (I'm getting visions of Dumb and Dumber here), I don't think its going to happen.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani

I don't have a specific data point - direct or indirect - that tells us about demand destruction. If you look at ROwMP consumption in 2011 - it was approx 2K per month. EB2IC has been nearly equivalent to EB2ROWMP total consumption. 2K instead of 2.5K constitutes 20% lower demand. 1.7K would mean 33% lower.

Now going back to % approvals for 2007 - I quoted trackitt numbers with some conservative padding. In reality trackitt only shows 60% approvals for Mar-Dec period. I didnot split further as April-Aug and Sep-Dec.

Q,

I couldn't find a single reason why you are not crossing the line to consider some change induced by the so called Demand Destruction in the historical monthly IC total of 2k to 2.5 K.

What is your opinion for this ---> 90% April to Aug + 70 % Sept to Dec 07 approved ?

[qesehmk]

30% pending apr-dec is not same as 30% pending apr-aug. For all we know apr-aug could be 0% pending.

U can get that % from trackitt. I didn't check.

Don't worry disagreements. That's a good way to learn better!!

If there are 30% unapproved between Apr to Aug 07 denotes 2400 to 3000 cases are pending . With no visa numbers available for IC for the remaining FY, Spillover from EB1 at the end of the year is kept imaginary , why would CO fix the retro date as Aug 15 2007? There is no logic in keeping 2.4K atleast unapproved and hanging while announcing ' IC unavailable'. Spec brought a wonderful article by Alan Lee ( Thank you) in that, CO somewhere says he was clearing the 2007 cases , in my opinion those words would mean he was trying to clear cases upto some date and that should be up to Aug 2007.

Q, this is all my opinion and you don't need to agree with me though

[redsox2009]

Again something doesn't seems to correct, Alan Lee reported saying he had chat with Mr.Oppenheim on Feb 24th, and Mr.O said he issued 7000 EB2 visas in Feb, and he had chance to move dates back in March and yet waited till April. Did he wait to see what are the final numbers or expecting to see the numbers go down.

[suninphx]

Assuming 70% and 30% are correct, I believe these figures (@2K/month INCLUDING PORTING). Demand destruction is somewhat higher, but people's desperation in porting is also higher. Hence I feel getting below 2K/month is unlikely in near future until EB3-I starts moving faster.

I agree that September 2012, PD will be in Q1 2008. The more interesting question is where it will be in October 2012, which is where I anticipate a big jump.

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

[pdfeb09]

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

That would be true but for the retrogression.

[vizcard]

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

I don't think its lost its relevance. In fact I think its just the opposite. Because there are "random" approvals, there is a bigger need to figure out consumption and where we can expect things to end. For eg, in a perfect world where approvals were sequential, it would land on x date. Now with random approvals, we will land on some date y (prior to x). Knowing y will help people make decisions in their lives.

[suninphx]

I don't think its lost its relevance. In fact I think its just the opposite. Because there are "random" approvals, there is a bigger need to figure out consumption and where we can expect things to end. For eg, in a perfect world where approvals were sequential, it would land on x date. Now with random approvals, we will land on some date y (prior to x). Knowing y will help people make decisions in their lives.

Figuring out consumption (and remaining demand) is always required irrespective of whether approvals are sequential or random. Point is - if approvals were reasonably sequential then projecting future date movement becomes easier and THAT helps to make better decisions. With random approvals lets say if date ends in Q1 2008 (or earlier) that does not tell me anything about the logic of future movements ( and hence making any decision making relatively difficult). Another drawback is we would not get any quality data in terms of OR etc etc.

[harapatta]

Team, like to know if I am on H1b (stamped till 2014) and wife on H4 what will be mine and her status once she start working on EAD ? Thanks

[vizcard]

Team, like to know if I am on H1b (stamped till 2014) and wife on H4 what will be mine and her status once she start working on EAD ? Thanks

You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine.

[vizcard]

With random approvals lets say if date ends in Q1 2008 (or earlier) that does not tell me anything about the logic of future movements ( and hence making any decision making relatively difficult).

I can tell you the logic of future movements right now. It will be sequential by PD date within the VB date range. How is that logic going to help you? What will help is knowing that it will be move to Mar 2008 by Sept, May 2008 by Oct, etc.. This is particularly true for folks in 2009 and 2010. Dates are hypothetical btw.

Another drawback is we would not get any quality data in terms of OR etc etc.

This is true but reality is that people care about getting approved not about getting accurate data. I know thats blasphemy on this site (particularly on this thread) but that is the reality. No calculation could have predicted the forward movement we saw over the last few months. I don't see ppl complaining that the calculations got screwed up or that we have no or bad data to support the movement.

Anyway.. we can agree to disagree on this matter.

[suninphx]

My Last on topic.

Sports: I am not complaning about larger window being opened or random approvals( I am one of beneficiary). IMO its not even in the context to what I answered. Thanks anyways for the detailed post

Viz: Exactly the point I am making. If the approvals are sequential then we can tell with greater confidence where the dates will be. With random approvals we dont know the density for a given period(unloess reliable data is published)

[harapatta]

First off thanks for your kind response...just one more question just in case if needed can she reclaim H4 status ?



"You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine. "

[bieber]

I remember people saying just filing for 485 and getting EAD/AP is good enough for them and they can wait for gc, I see many people (not all of them) complain now that somebody got approved with later PD than them and suspect the system. CO technically could stop the date in Q1 2008 and be ok with for this year and when he allowed everytone till Apr2010 file, I guess people should be ok with some random approvals.

[tatikonda]

RD: Jan 10th and PD : JULY 2008

[vizcard]

First off thanks for your kind response...just one more question just in case if needed can she reclaim H4 status ?



"You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine. "

Yes...as long as you maintain your H1 status.

[Spectator]

A little belatedly, since I have been away.

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 (+ 3 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 (+ 9 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 (+ 17 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 (+ 44 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 (+ 76 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 (+ 39 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 4 -------- 5 -------- 0 ----- 46
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ---- 155
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 0 ---- 527
December VB ------------------------------------- 605 ------- 83 -------- 26 ------- 12 -------- 2 ---- 728
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 756 ------- 129 ------- 15 -------- 7 ---- 907
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 649 ------- 96 -------- 8 ---- 753
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 166 -------- 6 ---- 172

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 672 ------ 860 ------- 818 ------ 301 ------- 23 -- 3,288



USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 23.91% ---- 23.91% --- 17.39% --- 15.22% ----- 8.70% --- 10.87% ---- 0.00%
October VB ------------ 80.00% ---- 10.32% ---- 1.29% ---- 3.87% ----- 3.23% ---- 1.29% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.77% --- 10.82% ---- 1.52% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.00%
December VB ---------------------------------- 83.10% --- 11.40% ----- 3.57% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.27%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 83.35% ---- 14.22% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.77%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 86.19% --- 12.75% ---- 1.06%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 96.51% ---- 3.49%

[suninphx]

A little belatedly, since I have been away.

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 (+ 3 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 (+ 9 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 (+ 17 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 (+ 44 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 (+ 76 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 (+ 39 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 4 -------- 5 -------- 0 ----- 46
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ---- 155
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 0 ---- 527
December VB ------------------------------------- 605 ------- 83 -------- 26 ------- 12 -------- 2 ---- 728
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 756 ------- 129 ------- 15 -------- 7 ---- 907
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 649 ------- 96 -------- 8 ---- 753
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 166 -------- 6 ---- 172

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 672 ------ 860 ------- 818 ------ 301 ------- 23 -- 3,288



USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 23.91% ---- 23.91% --- 17.39% --- 15.22% ----- 8.70% --- 10.87% ---- 0.00%
October VB ------------ 80.00% ---- 10.32% ---- 1.29% ---- 3.87% ----- 3.23% ---- 1.29% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.77% --- 10.82% ---- 1.52% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.00%
December VB ---------------------------------- 83.10% --- 11.40% ----- 3.57% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.27%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 83.35% ---- 14.22% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.77%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 86.19% --- 12.75% ---- 1.06%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 96.51% ---- 3.49%

Thanks Spec!!

So assuming below points

- 8% trackitt representation (taking into account increased interest due aggressive date movement)
- the total count eventually ends up around 4000 ( currently its 3288)

It appears that total number of cases for said period will be around 50-52 k. Is that fair statement Spec ?( purely based on the statistics above ).

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec!!

So assuming below points

- 8% trackitt representation (taking into account increased interest due aggressive date movement)
- the total count eventually ends up around 4000 ( currently its 3288)

It appears that total number of cases for said period will be around 50-52 k. Is that fair statement Spec ?( purely based on the statistics above ).

suninphx,

I'm hesitant to answer, but here goes anyway.

I use slightly different numbers, but about 50k, give or take was where it appeared to be heading for EB2-I, if similar patterns had continued. That is rather higher than I was expecting, but that number would include some, but not all Porting cases. EB2-C would be an additional 7-8k cases to May 2010.

Unfortunately, the slow down has hit the very period (2008-2010 PD) where there was the greatest uncertainty and where there was the greatest need of good data. That might have gone some way towards answering the question of Demand Destruction during that period. If the figures don't recover, it will essentially be a guessing game.

If the Trackitt stats become unreliable because the ratios change within the same PD year, we are left with the USCIS Inventory.

I only treat that as semi-reliable and IMO it will only be when the Inventory is released in July (the one after next) that it will give the whole picture. I don't think the next one will be totally useful, although hopefully PD2008 should be more or less complete (less those already approved). After the last one, I certainly won't trust either the PD2009 or PD2010 figures in the Inventory due shortly.

It's a little frustrating personally, having put some effort into tracking the numbers. It may all come to nothing.