Huge demand in EB2ROW could be bcz of HR3012 speculation ?
EB2IC consumed around 24-26K in 2012 and now EB2ROW does not have enough?
Huge demand in EB2ROW could be bcz of HR3012 speculation ?
EB2IC consumed around 24-26K in 2012 and now EB2ROW does not have enough?
I think CO is playing it safe. All the movement so far has happened on his assumption that EB1 will yield the same numbers as FY 2011. But I guess he got a surprise on that and hence the announcement in March (that EB1 might reach its cap, he might have actually exhausted more than the 54% that he is allowed). But then he realized that he cannot have a cod on EB1 when EB2 row is current. So now when he says that EB1 is current and will remain current, but EB2-row may (a big may in my humble opinion) have a cut off date, i guess it means he will take some numbers from EB2-row and give it to EB1 to make it current always. Long story short, EB2I-C got more numbers than they should have from EB2-row. As spec alluded before, I really doubt that EB2-row demand has picked up. It is more like haloed lines were crossed, or EB2I-C on trackiit representation is not as high as we think and more people between Aug 15 2007 and March 15-2008 got greened than we think. The numbers when released will tell the storyOriginally Posted by openaccount
thanks everyone for suggestion. My H1B is sent for extension and the case is being reviewed. I was referring to receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents for extension. This receipt is what my firm's immigration is not able to trace. My firm is sending a DMV letter with their letter, hoping it helps. To extend DL in Minnesota requires receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents or the I797. Since I dont have both, kind of stuck now.
Sweta
IF the DMV doesn't take the lawyer letters try calling the USCIS customer service line and ask them for a copy. They do that for Approval Notices so I imagine they can do it for Receipt Notices although I don't know for sure.
Also, for the future, scan/copy or take a picture of every immigration document that you have. It helps a lot if you need to get copies.
somewhere it said, the margins are down 60%. Indian IT companies are playing it their way and it's now time to pay the dues.
Sorry to see the dates retrogress. I sure we do not see and "unavailable" in the IC column as some have predicted. Please do not loose heart. I think as soon as in OCt 2012 we will again see a rapid movement forward with dates reaching late 2010 and even beyond.
In the mean time all the applications that have been currently submitted would have been pre-adjudicated and ready to go.
Spec,
That statement is giving me nightmares. This will again be another fiasco like USCIS has done for years. He might push up dates back to April 2010 and all cases will processed randomly. Then in 2-3 months they will realize that they are short of visas for other categories and retrogress dates back to maybe Nov 2007. So overall 20000 visas will given very randomly to people between Aug 15, 2007 and April 2010 and we will keep swinging back and forth for at least 3 years before all inventory till April 2010 is cleared.
I hope sense prevails and they move dates slowly in the coming year FY 2013. This way they clear cases (not strictly, but at least within reasonable limits) on the basis of Priority dates. Again, I have no intent to create a controversy against people with later PD's getting cards early, that is not the intent of my post
Am I right or am I completely off track.
Please advise
Please note no "Demand Data" release for May-2012 Bulletin.
In addition..
F. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established
China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”
Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: up to six weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: three to five weeks
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
Last edited by veni001; 04-07-2012 at 08:38 AM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Fellas, We had some discussions about the possibility of sabbatical on EAD. My attorney confirms that it is indeed possible to do so since the applicant is doing it on his/her own volition and still would be gainfully employed with the company. (Disclaimer: Do check with your own attorney if you are planning to make such life decisions)
IATIAM
My theory,
My guess is that GC under EB-2 might had crossed the limit or near the limit of 42000, which is the limit per year. Since this is third quarter they cannot do spillover, so USCIS cleverly moved the dates back to Aug 2007, since everyone before Aug 2007 got the GC's. USCIS will release the flood gates once again in last quarter of this year.
Visa Dept statement clearly states that
"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer."
My interpretation of the May bulletin : Don't be surprised to see EB2IC with "Unavailable" status in short term. However they will try to move dates as close as possible to 1st May, 2010 when 2013 quota is released in October. Again that movement is going to be dependent on demand vs numbers available (as filings are still in progress until end of April, actual demand is still in fluid state).
I think hopes of any forward movment in the next 5 months are fading away quickly
Is there any thing we can collectively do to get HR3012 back on track?
Last edited by sreddy; 04-07-2012 at 10:40 AM.
Header of this thread updated to make comments on May Visa Bulletin.
In nutshell I stand by original prediction even now. Overall the picture is not as pessimistic as ROW retrogression talk points to - NOR it is as rosy as the talk about EB2IC dates reaching 2010 in 2013 points to. The reality is somewhere in between.
Last edited by qesehmk; 04-07-2012 at 12:21 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks Vizcard. Will try that option out.
QHowever the way people should read what CO is saying is - he wants to bring in as many EB2IC into 485 stage as possible so that these people have some assurance of EAD and life continuity. I applaud CO for that. I do not think you should read his statement as he indicating that he is going to give visas to all people upto 2010 by Sep 2013.
Just read thru your analysis in the header. I can't imagine that CO will be able to give ppl the assurance of EAD (any more than he has now). For that he has to move the dates beyond May 2010 and that would be mean chaos. Anyone with a pre-adjudicated case could get greened irrespective of PD. The Senators' phones would ring off the hook and their mailboxes will be over stuffed with letters.
I really can't see him moving it beyond what he can actually dole out in terms of REAL visas.
Thanks Q. Yes I agree with you on dates reaching somewhere in the mid point for May 2010. Problem is hard to predict without numbers in hand.
I will be happy to be proven wrong, but I am not that optimistic on forward movement in 2012. Main reason is in current year I suspect there may be overallocation already, and so CO thinks he cannot give any more numbers at all to IC, even for those applying late for dates before Aug 2007. Again that is based on what I think, not based on any facts/number.
vizcard
CO doesn't need to move the dates beyond the dates in last April 2012 Visa Bulletin at all for next 18 months or so. However the fact he is talking about 2010 implies he is going to do a QSP in Q1 2013 and thus create the need to move the dates again. In one breath he is saying there will be EB2ROW retro and in next he is saying moving dates for EB2IC into 2010. Something doesn't add up. So the only thing we can guess is - he does want to move EB2IC dates beyond what math really supports.
sreddy - I am not saying that in 2012 dates will move to May 2010. I am saying they will move to Q1 2008. I am not saying WHEN the dates will move into 2010 yet.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thats a very sweeping statement.
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
Q,
I agree with what you said that' REAL movement is going to be inbetween Rosy and pessimistic description'. In no way (besides law change) can 2010 have visa number in 2013, dont add up.
What I dont agree is...that things are out of question such as...EB2 ROW retro + EB2I no visa number allocation in 2012....infact if you look at both...they are complimentry...As much I like this not to happen...I guess they ahve some chance of happening.
What I ma confused is movement starting 2013 fiscal yr. How is CO so optimistic about EB2IC starting Oct 2012. Suddenly he seems concerned..which is excellent..but whats causing that? Where are visa numbers coming from in fiscal 2013??
Definitely agree that things don't add up.vizcard
CO doesn't need to move the dates beyond the dates in last April 2012 Visa Bulletin at all for next 18 months or so. However the fact he is talking about 2010 implies he is going to do a QSP in Q1 2013 and thus create the need to move the dates again. In one breath he is saying there will be EB2ROW retro and in next he is saying moving dates for EB2IC into 2010. Something doesn't add up. So the only thing we can guess is - he does want to move EB2IC dates beyond what math really supports.
Hypothetically, if he does impose a COD on ROW this FY, any SO from EB1 and EB5 would go to EB2 I/C first (because SO is given by PD). So if ROW is retrogressed, we will still see EB2 I/C move and ROW stand still. Boy will that set off a sh!t storm.
vizcard,
I don't think it would work like that.
SO first has to go to Countries who have not reached the per Country limit. If there are none, then SO is made available to Countries that have already reached the per Country limits, such as China and India.
Currently, it works like it does because EB2-WW is Current and have no need of SO visas.
If EB2-WW was retrogressed, it means the number of visas available are only sufficient to satisfy EB2-WW demand to the COD imposed. None would be available to EB2-IC and they would have to be made Unavailable.
The storm would surround the fact that too many visas had already been allocated to EB2-IC.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-08-2012 at 11:42 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The retrogression is EB2ROW is at category level vs EB2IC retrogression which is at country level.
EB2ROW is almost a category - the countries inside it don't necessarily use up their individual limits but overall the category may. And so if SO is available from EB1 while EB2ROW is retrogressed - that is a very interesting situation. We don't know with certainty what will happen.
My take is that countries with oldest PDs will get SO. Spec think (correct me Spec if required) that SO will go to the countries that haven't yet utilized their country limits.
Last edited by qesehmk; 04-08-2012 at 12:00 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q
I get what Spec is saying and it makes sense. historically, i doubt ROW countries hit their per-country limit. If they did hit their limit, they would have their own COD. So if ROW is retrogressed it means that EB2IC was given more than they should have been and hence as a whole has been retrogressed. So the SO would go to the ROW country with the most backlog, make its way across orher ROW countries and then to EB2IC. Theoretically that makes sense under current rules but this gives everyone a sneak preview of the world under HR3012.
vizcard,
You understand exactly what I am saying.
The Worldwide grouping only exists for convenience to control the total number of visas available in a Category, and says that all Countries apart from those shown separately share the same COD. Ultimately it consists of 160 odd individual Countries, who will be treated as such when necessary.
Leaving aside South Korea as a special case, which used 4.8k in FY2010, the next highest users outside of EB2-IC were Philippines with 2.2k (another special case), Canada with 1.7k, Taiwan with 1.3k and Pakistan with 1k. No other Country reached 1k.
So if EB2-WW (including Mexico and Philippines who share the same COS) has demand of less than 34.4k plus any spillover from EB1/EB5 and a COD is imposed, it means that too many visas have been allocated to EB2-IC and EB2-IC must automatically be made Unavailable. Had an excess of visas not been assigned to EB2-IC, then obviously there would have beeen no need to set a COD for EB2-WW, as sufficient visas would have been available to meet demand.
Each Country has an overall numerical limit of 7%. Should it seem that a Country would reach its numerical limit, it would be pulled out separately in the VB, as Dominican Republic has been for short periods previously.
The only guaranteed visas for EB2-IC are the initial 2.8k each. Any above that number are made available on the basis that they will not required by other Countries that have not reached their own numerical limit.
This is also the reason why, if spillover ever falls down to EB3, it will be made available to EB3-WW first. Only when there is no further demand from Countries who have not reached their per Country limit can it be made available to those that have (or will). Since EB3-I has such an early COD, all visas would then be made available to them for some considerable time.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-08-2012 at 04:39 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This makes sense. The visas are not available to the category as a whole. So everything is retrogressed. But in this case, shouldn't the CO calculate the COD for each country based on the amount of visas available in spillovers and move the dates to a common denominator for EB2-WW. Then when the next fiscal starts, he will have more visas to allocate and then WW will be made current depending on how many are required for each country and EB2IC will be retrogressed as usual along with other countries that need more than the country cap.
Atleast this is what I am guessing should happen, if it does.
This is an interesting perspective. By law I don't think there is any category called EB2ROW and hence they cannot create one. But if it is retrogressed, when visas become available, there must be different COD for different countries based on the demand from each country and the available visas. This will be a nightmare situation for the CO. But if the dates do retrogress, the other perspective is that everyone is retrogressed and hence any visas should be given to the oldest applicants based on PD, which means IC will get it.
Not sure how the interpretation will work. If EB3 is any indication, then WW will get the spillovers and then to IC. But I am guessing that even EB3ww may not be right. I find it hard to believe that every year every row country use up less than their quota and still the visas are exhausted.
harapatta2012,
I agree that retrogression of EB2-WW and EB2-IC being made Unavailable cannot be discounted.
IF EB1 do not provide any spare visas, then it is a distinct possibility, since spare visas towards SOFAD could only come from EB2-WW and EB5.
Unless EB1 processing times have increased, the published I-140 data and denial rates mean that EB1 was due to rise to 35-36k this year anyway. It then doesn't take much to reach 40k and deny any spillover to EB2.
EB5 will optimistically provide 5k spare visas this year towards EB2-IC SOFAD.
With the initial allocation of 5.6k, that is 10.6k available SOFAD, leaving EB2-WW to provide the remainder that is required.
Looking at the approvals to date, I cannot realistically get a figure of much less than 20k used by EB2-IC to date.
That means EB2-WW would need to provide 9.4k towards SOFAD.
The initial allocation to EB2-WW (which includes M & P) is 34.4k. To provide 9.4k would mean total approvals for EB2-WW of not more than 25k, a figure EB2-WW may be on course to approach.
In FY2010, EB2-WW used 27.4k and probably used somewhere between 23.5 to 27.5k in FY2011.
Any further approvals for EB2-IC for cases with a PD prior to AUG1507 (including Porting cases) will increase the SOFAD required by EB2-IC and reduce the number of EB2-WW approvals required before visas available to EB2 run out.
Even if EB2-IC approvals to date are a slightly lower number, as Q believes, it is still a possibility, albeit a smaller one.
I think CO is still banking on some fall down from EB1, which is entirely possible.
After being burnt by QSP this year, it seems relatively less likely that CO would be as aggressive with it next year, especially as he will have a ready made backlog of pre-adjudicated cases.
Even if he is, as a practical matter, EB2 cannot receive much more than about 7k a month, even for short periods. Even if that whole amount was given to EB2-IC, there should be enough pre-adjudicated cases by October 2012 to ensure that a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed.
I really am at a loss and struggling to understand why CO would include the phrase about May 2010 iin the VB. I guess we will find out.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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