EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

guys gals and gurus...

one of my friend is aug 28 2007 PD from TSC with a RD of Nov 14 and still waiting for GC...

what do you guys think about his case/approval time frame?

Summer 2012 for sure (assuming there are no other issues).

[PD2008AUG25]

USCIS My Case Status site

I was trying to check my case status on line on the uscis web site for my I485 application and it turned me down saying
'Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status. Please check your receipt number and try again. If you need further assistance, please call the National Customer Service Center at 1.800.375.5283. '

When called the customer service center today they said the system is not working fine since two months.....

That explains everything....

Whole bunch of Feb filers at TSC can't track their status. When I had called for mine, I was told system will be fine in two weeks, that was month ago. EAD and AP status just started showing up after they got approved. Still can't track I-485, I hope after FP is done, it should show up as well.

[vizcard]

Whole bunch of Feb filers at TSC can't track their status. When I had called for mine, I was told system will be fine in two weeks, that was month ago. EAD and AP status just started showing up after they got approved. Still can't track I-485, I hope after FP is done, it should show up as well.

To me its a case of ppl at USCIS not entering info in time and only doing it on an as needed basis i.e. when a file is touched and processed.

[gomesnj]

They were able to find my application and verified my receipt number for I485 when I called the customer service. I hope that means USCIS have the application received and is in processing.
I had my H1b Extn applied in Oct 2011 and the online case status always showed up in Initial stage until now. But my case was approved and the I797 was sent to the Attorney 2 weeks back.
Now I wonder how reliable is the USCIS case status update system?
Looks like I need to call USCIS customer service every time to check on the status of my case.

[sweta.shetty]

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[vizcard]

I cannot track my status at the TSC too, and none of my friends until the time they received their GCs could ever track their status until the point of approval.

thats my point. i think a lot of Feb and March filers are having this issue regardless of service center. Its just volume. Thats my theory anyway. I could see my case online from day 1.

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

Not trying to be facetious but have your asked the DMV in your state? I'm sure it varies from state to state.

Also, I know you can get a copy of your approval notice from the USCIS (reprint) but I don't know about receipt notices. You might want to call USCIS customer service and ask them (or have your lawyers do it).

[qesehmk]

How come you don't have your copy of 797? That's the one you should be using.

If you don't have one ... do you at least have the case number? If so you can go to USCIS and get the onlie case status to prove it was approved.

That's the most I can think of. Sorry.

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I live in MA. I got it renewed last month without any immigration document at all. Just my DL number; online form and that's it!

May be it varies from state to state.

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[GCKnowHow]

In NJ I-94 is mandatory document for license.
The license expires 3 months from i-94 expiration date.

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[khushraho]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

[bookworm]

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

IMHO, most states that link DL to immigration status use the I-94 to verify your eligibility. E.g. My H1B extension got approved in early Jan. I returned fro India with a New I-94 in last week Jan. Went to CA-DMV on Feb 1st but they couldn't confirm that it was renewed as "it wasn't in the system". My (un)educated guess is that they were trying to match the I-94 in the passport to the date in the system (which was not updated).

You could go to the DMV and show the passport and I-94 and they could look it up and tell you if they can or can not renew it.

In CA if the extension is pending, they will typically give you a one year DL extension, if you have an approval in hand they will give you a 5 year extension.

[Pundit Arjun]

How come you don't have your copy of 797? That's the one you should be using.

If you don't have one ... do you at least have the case number? If so you can go to USCIS and get the onlie case status to prove it was approved.

That's the most I can think of. Sorry.

Sweta,

You even dont need the approval but just the receipt notice(again the I797). The DMV will then extend your license upto 240 days from the I-94 expiration date. This is how I got my extension in Wisconsin.
Talk to your attorney to get a duplicate receipt copy. Also follow Q's suggestion to check the status online, print it and then use it.
Also, I would encourage you to call the DMV and ask them for options.

I did talk to the DMV folks and usually not all of them at the DMV can answer immigration visa related questions. Be patient and explain them your situation clearly and they would forward your call to the right expert.

Dont panic, I am sure you are not the first in losing your receipt notice. Going forward, keep it safe

[suninphx]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

True..

In case of Missouri, (which is 'show me' state) one needs letter from employer (in addition to standard immigration documents) verifying you are still working with them. (and this is required even if you are obtaining license for family members on H4)

[makmohan]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

same experience in MA too.. probably another cool thing in MA besides weather.

[pdmay2008]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_May2012.pdf

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE
CUT-OFF DATE
Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and India
Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during recent
months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been
necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007 in an attempt to
hold number use within the annual limit while maintaining availability for those
countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were
included in the November, January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting readers
to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective action has become
necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available at the
time cut-off dates were determined, it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression.

Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may
be necessary to take additional corrective action at any time.
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010.
This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which
take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off
date which may apply at that time until late summer.
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment
Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off
date.

[abcx13]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_May2012.pdf

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE
CUT-OFF DATE
Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and India
Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during recent
months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been
necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007 in an attempt to
hold number use within the annual limit while maintaining availability for those
countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were
included in the November, January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting readers
to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective action has become
necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available at the
time cut-off dates were determined, it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression.

Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may
be necessary to take additional corrective action at any time.
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010.
This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which
take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off
date which may apply at that time until late summer.
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment
Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off
date.

I might be reading too much into this, but does CO/DoS think they can hit May 1, 2010 in FY-2013 again? I'm almost certain that can't be the case but I guess I-485 inventory will give us a better picture.

[abcx13]

Oh, and BTW, unless CO knows something about HR3012 being a slamdunk, which I doubt, this is ominous:

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established

China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”

This suggests that CO/USCIS has overallocated visas through QSP to EB2-IC at the cost of EB2-ROW/EB1. EB2-ROW is probably being regressed in favor of EB1. I guess EB2-ROW will become current again at the beginning of FY2013. Sucks for them, but I'd rather CO keeps making 'mistakes' like this because it helps the EB2-IC backlog. Doubt he'll keep over-allocating like this though.

[Spectator]

I would be more worried by Section F

F. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established

China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”

Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: up to six weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: three to five weeks

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

That pretty much says that either:

a) EB2-Non IC has very high possible demand.
and/or
b) More visas have been allocated to EB2-IC than should have been, meaning there may not be enough for EB2-Non IC remaining.

Either way, it is a pretty chilling comment, although it probably refers to a worst case scenario.

It certainly makes it relatively less likely that Cut off Dates will move forward before the end of the year.

If a Cut Off Date did have to be established for EB2-Non IC in FY2012, it 100% means too many visas were allocated to EB2-IC, since they are already beyond the initial allocation of 5.6k.

[Spectator]

I might be reading too much into this, but does CO/DoS think they can hit May 1, 2010 in FY-2013 again? I'm almost certain that can't be the case but I guess I-485 inventory will give us a better picture.

I don't understand this either.

Unless USCIS stop pre-adjudicating cases after August 2007 entirely, by October 2012 there will be more pre-adjudicated cases than visas available, even if QSP is used.

That would mean a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed, probably in early/mid 2008.

As an aside, it is annoying that the Demand Data has not been updated. It probably means it won't be published this month.

[abcx13]

I don't understand this either.

Unless USCIS stop pre-adjudicating cases after August 2007 entirely, by October 2012 there will be more pre-adjudicated cases than visas available, even if QSP is used.

That would mean a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed, probably in early/mid 2008.

Agreed. I think our posts about Section F overlapped. I think if HR3012 doesn't pass post-2010 filers might be screwed for a while, especially if EB2-ROW usage is rising beyond their cap. I didn't even consider that possibility.

Report on visa rejections disrupting Indian IT operations in US - http://articles.economictimes.indiat...a-restrictions. Things sound bad for them and I'm sorry but I'm not that sorry considering all the fraud and abuse they perpetrate in all visa categories. I went to a top 10 US Univ for a MS and none of the Indian IT companies are anywhere on the list of companies I would work for.

[Spectator]

Agreed. I think our posts about Section F overlapped. I think if HR3012 doesn't pass post-2010 filers might be screwed for a while, especially if EB2-ROW usage is rising beyond their cap. I didn't even consider that possibility.

Report on visa rejections disrupting Indian IT operations in US - http://articles.economictimes.indiat...a-restrictions. Things sound bad for them and I'm sorry but I'm not that sorry considering all the fraud and abuse they perpetrate in all visa categories. I went to a top 10 US Univ for a MS and none of the Indian IT companies are anywhere on the list of companies I would work for.

I have no wish to be controversial, but isn't the quote in the article

Another official of an IT firm said that the visa scarcity was compelling Indian companies to hire additional talent at the customer location, paying often as much as 60% more.

just shorthand for saying they are using the lack of a Prevailing Wage for L1 to bring in cheap labour and undercut the domestic competition?

[abcx13]

I have eeno wish to be controversial, but isn't the quote in the article



just shorthand for saying they are using the lack of a Prevailing Wage for L1 to bring in cheap labour and undercut the domestic competition?

That's the way I read it. The L1 has almost always been a scam since they don't need to be paid prevailing wages. Indian IT companies are now rotating teams of employees on B1 visas too which is even cheaper since they only need to be paid per diems and Indian salaries. And Jack Palmer's testimony backs it up - http://www.cio.com/article/687997/In...B_1_Visa_Abuse

Here's more alleged fraud on the part of Indian IT companies - https://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...6&pageNumber=1

I think without visa fraud/abuse the business models of many of these Indian IT companies would fall apart.

I know Grassley is a crazy anti-immigrant, but his suggestions of imposing a prevailing wage on the L1, tightening H1Bs, etc. aren't half bad.

[mesan123]

Number of FB-Based and EB-Based ** Applicants Registered at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 2011

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf


if someone already posted this will remove this

[eb2visa]

May Visa Buillietin is out

Interesting comments

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE


Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.

[imdeng]

Very clear statement of intent there from CO. I am not sure whether it means that PD will move in one shot to May 1, 2010 in FY2013 or whether they will take a gradual step approach. Considering that much of the inventory then will consist of pre-adjuducated cases, I hope they take a gradual approach.

Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.