Yeap Q...you are right...but remember there was news in murthy and other forums and people were diasppointed that there cases may not be approved....so just postd this message becasue there is still ray of hope for Dec or Jan fillers to get approved...the murthy link is below
http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My 2 cents.
Its hard to predict anything that going to happen in April or for the rest of this year. They may have had a drop dead cut off for approvals for March 31 or perhaps the internal COD really is informal or perhaps it'll be only clear RFE cases. We'll know in the next week or so if we will see approvals in April.
Retrogression to August 2007 in itself is not an indicator of whether or not there are visas left (just like the forward movement was not an indicator of demand destruction, etc.). August 2007 seems logical to make sure all the PWMBs get first dibs to the left over GCs. Then during the summer SO season (and into next year), we should see some more SFM with the intermittent "no movement". Like the gurus have said, we should land in Q1 2008 by Sept 2012 and maybe a couple more months in Oct.
After that point it really gets tricky. Will CO use QSP or wait till the summer to give out the SOFAD? If he does use QSP, then we'll see continuous movement otherwise we'll go back to the pattern of movement we saw in post-2007 and pre-fall 2011 period.
Hello gurus,
I am new to this forum but I am following every day.
1. My priority date is May 22th 2008 and I got RFE for my I 485 and service center is Nebraska.
If retrogression to August 2007 in may visa bulletin, That mean I have a time nearly 1 month (up to April end) to submit the requested documents. Is there any chase to get my GC in this month?
2. I heard generally they are asking about the Employer information in the recent RFE's. Is it true?
Thanks in advance.
Well said, I agree and hope that visas are left for approving cases in last quarter or earlier of this year. If we see last 5-6 years whenever retrogression happened it was extreme and then dates started moving again. So keeping hope alive but not building up unrealistic hopes.
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
According to latest news from murthy firm dates have retrogessed internally to Aug 15 2007 so folks with PD after that date will get GC only when the dates move again.
NSC | PD: 12/12/2007 | RD: 01/17/2012 | ND: 01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013
04/03/2012: Visa Bulletin Movement Prediction of State Department During May-July 2012
AILA reports that at the AILA conference in Washington at the end of March, Mr. Oppenheim distributes visa movement prediction table to the attendants. The summary is as follows:
EB Visas: Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin
EB-1: Current
EB-2: China/India=Retrogress to 08/15/2007
EB-3: ROW=3-5 wks, China=Upto 6 wks, India=Upto 2 wks, Mexico+Philippines=Same as ROW
FB Visas: ROW Only - Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin
FB-1: 4-6 wks
FB-2A: 2.6 mos
FB-2B: 3-6 wks
FB-3: 3-6 wks
F-4: 3-5 wks
Not too promising news.
source:http://www.immigration-law.com/
1. Assuming they are still approving GCs (which is not a good assumption), you still have to respond and the officers need to review and approve. So essentially you have another 10-12 days to respond to give them enough time to adjudicate. Again, this is assuming they actually approve GCs.
2. RFEs have been for EVLs, BCs primarily and in some cases for medicals.
I am indebted to Jack Brown for bringing my attention to a series of 3 articles by Alan Lee, Attorney at Law.
Article 1 (About H.R.3012)
Article 2 (About visa usage and talks with Charles Oppenheim)
Article 3 (A calculation for number of cases)
I am only talking about the contents of Article 2, which revealed some hard numbers for both FY2011 ans FY2012 to about the end of February 2012.
Also, I have thrown this together quite quickly. Please feel free to point out any mistakes or faulty logic.
Before I start, I will say I am having a hard time digesting and believing some of the numbers presented. As ever, I would warn people about taking any information from a second/third party at face value.
Let's start with FY2011.The author had two conversations with Mr. Oppenheim on February 23, 2012, and February 24, 2012, along with another on February 23, 2012, with a member of his staff.
The figures for FY2009 and FY2010 tally exactly with the numbers published in the Visas Reports.From information gleaned from State Department reports and the staff member, the Visa Office issued 46,016 EB-2 visa numbers in FY-2009, 53,872 in FY-2010, 66,804 in FY-2011, and 29,804 in FY-2012 as of February 23, 2012.
In FY2011, the initial total allocation for EB2 was 40,040 visas, so a figure of 66,804 means that the fall down from EB1, EB4 and EB5 was 26,764 visas.
The article also says:
From that, I think we can conclude that, as normal, EB4 did not contribute to fall down.Mr. Oppenheim anticipated less falldown from EB-5, said that EB-4 use last year was such that he almost put a cutoff date on it, and that there now appeared to be more EB-1 demand.
From the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of January 23, 2012 we know that EB5 used 3,463 visas of 9,940 in FY2011, leaving 6,477 towards fall down.
EB1 must therefore have contributed 26,764 less 6,477 to fall down. That is 20,287 visas of the EB1 allocation of 40,040, meaning that EB1 used 19,753 visas. If this was the case, EB1 will almost certainly exceed 40k this year.
From another source, I have seen a communication from DOS which stated that in early September 2011, EB2 China had been allocated around 8.3k visas. Visas ran out shortly afterwards.
Using the same ratio of EB2-C to EB2-I as in FY2010 would point to EB2 India receiving about 25-26k visas giving SOFAD of around 33-34k.
This leaves the balance for EB2-ROW/M/P as something over 30k and contributing very little to SOFAD. That seems a high number.
It leaves me wondering whether the correct number is actually 56,608, which would give a higher contribution from EB2-ROW/M/P and a lower one from EB1. Maybe that is just because I had calculated about 57.5k EB2 visas used in FY2011.
Moving on to FY2012
There is loads of information here.In the first conversation with Mr. Oppenheim, he was cautiously optimistic that if conditions continued as they have with demand, he could move the EB-2 date to January 2011 by the end of the fiscal year. However, he believed that many of the persons with approved petitions who had not filed I-485 applications had just delayed the filings and he did not know the attrition rate of those who had given up.
He cited increasing demand in the EB-2 category, and that his office had issued 2000 EB-2 numbers to CIS since his last week's meeting with the CIS Ombudsman.
He was unsure whether this was a temporary spike or a long-term trend; confirmed that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year; and that he had approximately 25,000 left to distribute.
Mr. Oppenheim anticipated less falldown from EB-5, said that EB-4 use last year was such that he almost put a cutoff date on it, and that there now appeared to be more EB-1 demand.
Also that he was seeing what appeared to be many upgrades from EB-3 to EB-2 as there were EB-2 cases with old priority dates for which the Visa Office was getting requests for numbers.
He was also cautious as it takes CIS four-six months to complete a case and request a visa number. In explaining the low demand of 335 visas requested by CIS in February, Mr. Oppenheim explained that the 335 were only numbers cleaning out the 2007 cases.
In a follow-up conversation on February 24, 2012, Mr. Oppenheim was less optimistic as he had checked the latest numbers, and did not see visa availability moving to January 2011 by September 2012. EB-2 visa demand was coming in much quicker, and EB-1 numbers were on the upswell as well.
EB-2 visa demand for February was now up to 6600 and he was looking at 7000 by the end of the month.
He did not see as much fall-down from EB-1 as previously expected.
Mr. Oppenheim believed that we may have turned the corner, but the caveat was that if there were backlogs CIS did not tell him about and if there was a shift in the process such as CIS throwing many bodies at a backlog, this could be a one-two month surge. On future movement, he said that he might move the date a little - one to two months - or hold it for a month to get time to see if the increased demand was a temporary spike. If there was continued heavy demand, he would have to put on the brakes.
Of 55k originally expected for EB2, 30k visas had been used to February 23, 2012.
Original fall down numbers expected were 15k (55 - 40).
As of February 23, 2012 the visa usage rate at that time for EB2 was 2k per week.
February usage for EB2 was expected to be 7k.
At least judging by Trackitt, visa usage was even higher in March. It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that 15k EB2 visas were used in Feb/Mar.
This would give total EB2 visa usage to the end of March of about 38-39k. Of this, it seems likely that EB2-IC would account for something over 20k. It also points to quite high use by EB2-ROW/M/P.
I don't have time for more, so I'll leave you with the above.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-03-2012 at 08:55 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec, Thanks for this information and for your analysis on this.I am indebted to Jack Brown for bringing my attention to a series of 3 articles by Alan Lee, Attorney at Law.
Article 1 (About H.R.3012)
Article 2 (About visa usage and talks with Charles Oppenheim)
Article 3 (A calculation for number of cases)
I am only talking about the contents of Article 2, which revealed some hard numbers for both FY2011 ans FY2012 to about the end of February 2012.
Also, I have thrown this together quite quickly. Please feel free to point out any mistakes or faulty logic.
Before I start, I will say I am having a hard time digesting and believing some of the numbers presented. As ever, I would warn people about taking any information from a second/third party at face value.
Let's start with FY2011.
The figures for FY2009 and FY2010 tally exactly with the numbers published in the Visas Reports.
In FY2011, the initial total allocation for EB2 was 40,040 visas, so a figure of 66,804 means that the fall down from EB1, EB4 and EB5 was 26,764 visas.
The article also says:
From that, I think we can conclude that, as normal, EB4 did not contribute to fall down.
From the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of January 23, 2012 we know that EB5 used 3,463 visas of 9,940 in FY2011, leaving 6,477 towards fall down.
EB1 must therefore have contributed 26,764 less 6,477 to fall down. That is 20,287 visas of the EB1 allocation of 40,040, meaning that EB1 used 19,753 visas. If this was the case, EB1 will almost certainly exceed 40k this year.
From another source, I have seen a communication from DOS which stated that in early September 2011, EB2 China had been allocated around 8.3k visas. Visas ran out shortly afterwards.
Using the same ratio of EB2-C to EB2-I as in FY2010 would point to EB2 India receiving about 25-26k visas giving SOFAD of around 33-34k.
This leaves the balance for EB2-ROW/M/P as something over 30k and contributing very little to SOFAD. That seems a high number.
It leaves me wondering whether the correct number is actually 56,608, which would give a higher contribution from EB2-ROW/M/P and a lower one from EB1. Maybe that is just because I had calculated about 57.5k EB2 visas used in FY2011.
Moving on to FY2012
There is loads of information here.
Of 55k originally expected for EB2, 30k visas had been used to February 23, 2012.
Original fall down numbers expected were 15k (55 - 40).
As of February 23, 2012 the visa usage rate at that time for EB2 was 2k per week.
February usage for EB2 was expected to be 7k.
At least judging by Trackitt, visa usage was even higher in March. It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that 15k EB2 visas were used in Feb/Mar.
This would give total EB2 visa usage to the end of March of about 38-39k. Of this, it seems likely that EB2-IC would account for something over 20k. It also points to quite high use by EB2-ROW/M/P.
I don't have time for more, so I'll leave you with the above.
As per this discussion there are only 15,000 VISAs left including Spill over for this year.
But as per the law Spill over should be distributed in the last quarter regardless of country limits. If there are only 15000 VISAs left, they will all be consumed by ROW demand and there won't be any spill over from EB2 ROW. We should wait till Oct 2012 to use next year quota. That is the reason behind CO's statement that we need to wait till Oct 2012.
As I said in the health warning, I would be beware of accepting the figures in the article blindly. I can't emphasise that enough.
I have just presented my analysis based on them being correct.
For instance, if EB1 itself didn't provide any fall down, the 55k for EB2 reduces to perhaps 45k. That wouldn't seem to leave enough visas for even EB2-ROW/M/P for the rest of the year if 38-39k had already been used. The COD for EB2-IC has not been made Unavailable, so clearly visas still exist. Possibly CO is still allowing an unknown figure from EB1.
38k to EB2 would represent 50% of the available visas under the 27% rule in the first half of the year. That seem awfully high, given that EB1 appears to have had healthy approvals as well.
It's not entirely adding up for me.
Even if the figures aren't truly accurate, I think the article gives a good insight into increasing demand. Last year, both EB1 and EB2-ROW appeared to have higher approvals in the second half of the year.
I'm very surprised that the FY2011 Visa Statistics haven't been published yet. The USCIS Dashboard data, which is usually updated around the 21st of the month is also late.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec
Some of it is really BS. e.g. if indeed they had issued 66.8K EB2 visas in 2011 - then the dates shouldve been way far ahead than where they ended. Funnily, they not only ended where they did but they did so with considerable backlog for EB2IC. So there probably is something lost in translation here between CO and the lawyer.
However a silver lining (in fact more than a silver lining) is that it seems HR3012 is a foregone conclusion as far as DOS is concerned. It seems they are gearing up to work towards supporting HR3012 or are already distributing more under some pretext. Now in retrospect that doesn't surprise me since it is a nightmare for CO to keep track of country % and then release visa. With HR3012 there would be just a category date and that's it!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I agree that the figure given for FY2011 appears totally wrong and that it may be a transcription error. 57k is quite believable.
I agree that mis-communication is always a possibility.
I don't agree with your other comments.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-04-2012 at 07:25 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Pretty sure that's not the case. CO has probably been through 'pending' legislation many times before and I doubt he's going to put his a** on the line by exhibiting behavior one way or another.
While we are speculating, I was thinking that CO might have moved the dates forward a lot and then back to estimate the backlog and tell political types that "oh, it's going to take an ungodly x number of years for these people to get their GCs"...similarly, the dates might have been retrogressed so severely to avoid the impression that maybe wait times aren't so bad after all.
You are missing a small detail here. Never in last 5 years we had seen quarterly spillover. And this year CO suddenly applied monthly spillover. One way to explain this is in terms of creating future backlog. Another is anticipation of passage of HR3012.
I don't claim to know with certainty which is what. Just stating possibilities.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Guys this is what I got from my lawyer
As for visa numbers, there are no more left for this fiscal year. Visa numbers will again be available in October 2012, however, at this time there is no indication how quickly the dates will move once October comes around.
Looks like I will be waiting for the Oct bulletin.
Friends,
Couple of quick questions:
1) If my application needs more evidence (BC, Flu Shot etc) will they work on it : A) During the retrogression or B) once my application becomes current again after the retrogression? It will be good if USCIS could work on these RFEs during this inevitable grand retrogression to avoid more waste of time once my application becomes current.
2) What is the status of a derived applicant working on H1 (with EAD 485 for primary pending); if (s)he loses the job? Can they take a break or have to find something soon (assuming they are still in status in between and with no need to do H1-H4-H1 crap).
Makmohan
1. Yes. they will work on your application (pre-adjudication), but, depending on when you will get current again, they may ask for EVL or G325 update info based on factors like moving to a different state or invoking AC21 etc. Preadjudication atleast reduces the trivial RFE's like BC,Medical but does not guarantee no RFE.
2. Derived applicant has an option to be on H1/H4 or EAD, but once you avail EAD you cannot go back to H-1/H4 without leaving the country. If you are maintaining H-1, dependent can always go out of the country and come back if something happens to I-485, no point in both maintaining H-1 status,, JMHO.
I don't think dependent needs to go out to come back on H4 from EAD. It can be done without leaving USA.
TSC | PD: 10-Apr-2009 | ND: 7-Feb-2012 | FP Notice: 15-Feb-2012 | FP Done: 8-Mar-2012 | EAD/AP : 22-Mar-2012
Thanks GC-Utopic.
It was more about the status during the period between 2 jobs. If my spouse needs to find something; she can do so without worrying for validity of her status in between 2 jobs (due to EAD). This helps as she can focus on work instead of worrying about this (she has done H1-H4-H1 crap in the past which needs immediate filing of H4 on the last day of job!).
Makmohan
UNV I agree w you.
F1 to F2 to H1 to H4 to AOS and back. I think all of that is possible. What probably is frowned upon (but may still be possible) is B1 to any other status adjustment.
But otherwise all adjustments mentioned above are possible.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, I stand corrected,
can you change to H-status after you are admitted as a parolee?
More from Ron Gotcher. http://www.immigration-information.c...0651#post70651 entitled "Now it's official"
AILA just reported:
My interpretation of this is that the USCIS stopped issuing visas for China/India EB2 cases with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 as of March 23rd. They will continue to pre-adjudicate these cases, however, and when priority dates again become available they will obtain visa numbers for them, issue final approvals, and close them. The reference to the pending file at the Visa Office is not new. This has been in use for years. When the USCIS pre-adjudicates an AOS case, they are supposed to notify the Visa Office. VO will then put the file into their database and factor it in as pending demand. When cutoff dates advance, VO then sends the USCIS an email for each case that becomes "current" so that the USCIS can pull the file, approve it, and close it.DOS Confirms China-Mainland Born and India EB-2 Cut-offs
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12040447 (posted Apr. 4, 2012)"
Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, has confirmed that, effective March 23, 2012, no further EB-2 visas will be authorized for China-mainland born and India applicants with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later. Visa applicants processing in April at consulates abroad will still receive visas, as those numbers were allocated before the cut-off date was established. Mr. Oppenheim understands that USCIS will continue to receive and process applications for adjustment of status for aliens with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin, and those cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, will be forwarded to and held by Visa Control at DOS in a "pending" file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim advises that an item in the May Visa Bulletin will address the EB-2 movement.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Yes - if you apply for H1 extension or amendment.
druvraj,
Thant could only be true for EB2IC but not for the rest of the crowed.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Here's what I posted on Ron's forum. Is my interpretation right?
...Earlier you seemed to be saying that no more visa numbers until the end of next quarter (July) but now it seems no more numbers until the end of the FY, i.e. no more spillover this year at all. Does this mean CO 'over-allocated' visas to EB2-IC in quarterly spillover in the first two quarters and now he probably won't even have enough for EB2 ROW/EB1? If so, seems pretty bad for EB2 IC.
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