EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

I lost my hope now. I am jan filer with pd in December 2008.
Do I have any chance in 2013? If so when can it be? The reason why I am asking is my H1B due again in 2013 and I want to stay on H1B and don't want to switch to EAD.

I hope not to go thru this H1B extension nightmare process again.
Almost every year I have been under going this process with lot of mental stress. I had hope of getting my gc in near future, but I lost that hope now.

Whats the reason for not wanting EAD ?

[gc2008]

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that my attorney warned against using EAD.
As per him In case of denial, person will be out of status right the moment of the denial. Applying for MTR is like nightmare in case of out of status. He said though my application is straight forward and doesnot see any reason for denial but sometimes USCIS deny in error. Hence I am little skeptical in using EAD

[vizcard]

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that my attorney warned against using EAD.
As per him In case of denial, person will be out of status right the moment of the denial. Applying for MTR is like nightmare in case of out of status. He said though my application is straight forward and doesnot see any reason for denial but sometimes USCIS deny in error. Hence I am little skeptical in using EAD

Given what you posted, I'm assuming the reason you applied for EAD in the first place was so that your wife could work?

I would say three things:
1. It's next to impossible July 2010 is going to be current in the next year (unless HR3012 goes through).
2. You need to have your new company apply for Perm right away (or atleast in the next 6 months). You need an approved Perm before you become current.
3. Don't live in fear. Your scenario could happen to anyone of the thousands and thousands of people applying.

[gc2008]

Hi vizcard
I think u miss understood my question or answered to somebody else's question.
My pd is in dec2008 and not July 2010. I am not planning to change employer. I already have my EAD.

[Nishant_imt]

thanks spec. its a good idea. i have written to my attorney. she will come back to me on Monday. i hope its a risk worth taking. only concern i have with this approach is exactly at what time do they check where an applicant is. if they do it right at the time of receiving the application or during granting the EAD , then this may not work. otherwise, i will be obliged of spec for this lifetime.

[vizcard]

Hi vizcard
I think u miss understood my question or answered to somebody else's question.
My pd is in dec2008 and not July 2010. I am not planning to change employer. I already have my EAD.

My apologies. I did get confused with the dates. I do think dec 2008 will be current in FY 2013 but late.

[Spectator]

Gurus - I am in a very restricting situation and don't know if asking this question is really optimistic of me. My Pd is 2/13, and I was planning to recapture my previous Pd until the news of retrogression arrived. Now, let's say, I get my Perm approved in 75 days (which I know is wishful thinking looking at the current trends). That puts me around 26th April timeline. I will have only 2 working days left to file concurrent 140 and485. But the perm won't arrive in next 7days. Is it possible to file both without hard copy of perm immediately and then as soon as perm arrives, I can send perm in a separate package? Has anyone done that before?

Nishant_imt,

I see from a good reply on Trackitt that concurrent filing without the original LC is not possible. That's very unfortunate.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...qs_3-20-06.pdf

I'm sure you have already seen it, but I post for others benefit.

[gc4a_k]

saw this in trackitt posted by user ajitnair2002

"I was told by my lawyer that there is a fair chance that all those with PD upto mid 2009 should get their GC by Sep. The EB1 spillover for EB2 is still pending and that will come into play from Jul - Sep quarter. So there could be additional 5-8K Visa numbers available and based on the current filing at the end of Feb, That should to take care of PD till 2009 year end. However now since the retrogression is announced , applicants will speed up filing in April, that can take away some of the late 2009 PD cases.
USCIS retrogression is to take an account the pending 485 inventory at the end of April so that they can calculate the available numbers from EB1 spill over"

Guru's, wanted to know if this is possible.

[Spectator]

saw this in trackitt posted by user ajitnair2002

"I was told by my lawyer that there is a fair chance that all those with PD upto mid 2009 should get their GC by Sep. The EB1 spillover for EB2 is still pending and that will come into play from Jul - Sep quarter. So there could be additional 5-8K Visa numbers available and based on the current filing at the end of Feb, That should to take care of PD till 2009 year end. However now since the retrogression is announced , applicants will speed up filing in April, that can take away some of the late 2009 PD cases.
USCIS retrogression is to take an account the pending 485 inventory at the end of April so that they can calculate the available numbers from EB1 spill over"

Guru's, wanted to know if this is possible.

gc4a_k,

I would agree that not all hope is lost for EB1 to contribute a few thousand visas and that, if there are any available, they won't be released until Q4.

That it will take care of PD till 2009 end? - not a chance. At best, the numbers the person is talking about would move the date to mid 2008.

A movement to mid 2009 would need something in the order of 30k visas.

[gc4a_k]

Thanks a lot Spec.

[just_curious]

All these while I have been reading in this forum from most of the guru's that there was a good possibility of dates getting moved sometime to June 2011 (people who have got NVC notices) sometime in the the next fiscal year. Now that retrogression is announced, people are very skeptical about the dates movement to even 2010....

Could you please shed some light on what am I missing here?

[usernameisnotvalid]

Some of my co-workers are getting EAD/AP valid for 2 years and some for 1 year only. On what basis they decide to do this. Any correlation with PD here?

[mesan123]

Just_Curios,

None of our gurus predicted that the dates will move to June 2011....they were from the begining telling based on the date moments to 2009 and 2010 that at some point it may retrogress.... it was cleared that NVC reciept once fees paid will not be expired....for better understanding you can go few pages before and read in detail....(Just trying to answer your question )

At this point dates wont move...based on CO's statement it will retrogress to Aug 15th 2007....from that point the dates will start moving based on the inventory........the dates moved till now also just because ( my thinking) that CO wanted not to waste visa's and also USCIS processing is always and never was in streamline and there inventory updations( i meant 485 applictaions) was also not 100% correct......

so date movements from now on cannot be predicted untill we get 485 inventory updation from USCIS...as thatz when GURUS can calculate based on the inventory....

All these while I have been reading in this forum from most of the guru's that there was a good possibility of dates getting moved sometime to June 2011 (people who have got NVC notices) sometime in the the next fiscal year. Now that retrogression is announced, people are very skeptical about the dates movement to even 2010....

Could you please shed some light on what am I missing here?

[belmontboy]

All these while I have been reading in this forum from most of the guru's that there was a good possibility of dates getting moved sometime to June 2011 (people who have got NVC notices) sometime in the the next fiscal year. Now that retrogression is announced, people are very skeptical about the dates movement to even 2010....

Could you please shed some light on what am I missing here?

That's why it's called PREDICTION

[just_curious]

Just_Curios,

None of our gurus predicted that the dates will move to June 2011....they were from the begining telling based on the date moments to 2009 and 2010 that at some point it may retrogress.... it was cleared that NVC reciept once fees paid will not be expired....for better understanding you can go few pages before and read in detail....(Just trying to answer your question )

At this point dates wont move...based on CO's statement it will retrogress to Aug 15th 2007....from that point the dates will start moving based on the inventory........the dates moved till now also just because ( my thinking) that CO wanted not to waste visa's and also USCIS processing is always and never was in streamline and there inventory updations( i meant 485 applictaions) was also not 100% correct......

so date movements from now on cannot be predicted untill we get 485 inventory updation from USCIS...as thatz when GURUS can calculate based on the inventory....

Sorry, my ignorance... Thanks for the explanation, Mesan.....!!!!

[pdfeb09]

All these while I have been reading in this forum from most of the guru's that there was a good possibility of dates getting moved sometime to June 2011 (people who have got NVC notices) sometime in the the next fiscal year. Now that retrogression is announced, people are very skeptical about the dates movement to even 2010....

Could you please shed some light on what am I missing here?

just_curious,

I do not think any of the "Gurus" ever said that the dates will get to June 2011 in the next fiscal year. It is very hard to say that. Most of the Gurus have maintained that the current movement of dates is really beyond what the available visa numbers can sustain.

The general consensus has been that the dates will retrogress from their current COD "May 2010", and settle somewhere around Q1 2008 this fiscal year. Then it will probably take them 2 years to get to May 2010 again.

There have been talks about NVC fee notices and a great deal of anticipation based on that, however, the only way the dates would go into June 2011 are due to following factors:

1. USCIS is really really really slow in processing the existing applications, thereby causing DOS to advance the dates to get more CP cases and use the Visas. This case is doubtful since USCIS has shown great improvement in the processing speed. Once the dates go back, as they are slated to, USCIS has a great amount of time to process them anyways. I think Spectator (Spec), one of the well acclaimed Gurus, can help us with real numbers.

2. There is a huge demand destruction. Meaning, many people who have their labor and 140 approved, have abandoned their quest for I485 owing to job related difficulties or otherwise. Very doubtful. Q, another one of the acclaimed Gurus and the one who started this site, has always expressed his doubts about this one. Though, there are others who swear by this theory.

3. EB2I alone gets a huge amount of SOFAD (spillover, Across, down) visas. Given the trackkit trends analyzed by "Teddy", another well respected of the Gurus, and backed by Spec I think, EB1 is on a rampage and will use most of its own Visas. There is little hope from EB4/5. EB2 ROW has been helping us now, but is not guaranteed in future.

4. CO thinks he wants to. Now there is no telling what he wants or thinks. This could really be our best shot. However, recently, he has mentioned that the dates will go back. No luck there for now.

Sorry to be the bearer of the bad news, but I don't think any of the Gurus really went as far as June 2011 in their own predictions for the next fiscal.

We will really know a lot after the demand data grows and stabilizes after the retrogression. The evil of retrogression is necessary to bring forth the clarity, however much we all may hate it !

Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.

[just_curious]

Thanks for the explanation, pdfeb09.....!!!!

However below are the 2 pointers which make me to blindly believe that dates will again move... I may be wrong...

- Not many applicants during 2008-2010 --This is totally my assumption(totally - no supporting data)
- Processing speed of USCIS

Feel free to thrash my assumptions...

[pdfeb09]

Thanks for the explanation, pdfeb09.....!!!!

However below are the 2 pointers which make me to blindly believe that dates will again move... I may be wrong...

- Not many applicants during 2008-2010 --This is totally my assumption(totally - no supporting data)
- Processing speed of USCIS

Feel free to thrash my assumptions...

"- Not many applicants during 2008-2010 --This is totally my assumption(totally - no supporting data) " - You are probably right in assuming that the number of applications between late 2008 and end of 2010 are less as compared to other years (2007-late 2008) and 2010- onwards. However, Spectator and others have been working on getting an estimate of the applications based on "Perms" and have already accounted for this sparseness. Gurus like Spec, Teddy, Veni, Kanmani, nishant2200, Vizcard, Imdeng, Suninphx use a ratio called OR (overall ratio) that describes the amount of 485 applications that were delivered by a certain amount of perms. Each has their own OR .. I think..
This OR, by the way, includes demand destruction, Porting, multiple perms, etc.
A true picture about how many of the perms made it to 485 stage will emerge from the demand data once it grows and stabilizes.

"- Processing Speed Of USCIS" - If the dates retrogress once, USCIS gets a breather. They have to process enough applications to cover all the available visas, but not any more. Again, I think Spectator has found them to be doing a good job.

Spectator, I have used your name in justifying my understanding. Please correct anything that I may have misunderstood or mistakenly associated with you.

[ontheedge]

No approvals reported today at all! So unnerving.

[ragx08]

Gurus,

A friend of mine was asking this... Is it possible for a L2A (L1 dependent) with EAD to have his/her employer sponsor the greencard? If yes, what is the process involved (any links to that info?)

Thankyou for your inputs.

PS: Admins, if this is not the appropriate forum for this question, please move/delete this post.

[la_2002_ch]

No approvals reported today at all! So unnerving.

My organization applied for 485 in Jan(RD ranging from 3rd to 5th) for 5 of us (PDs ranging from Apr-Sep 2008). Two of them got approved last week and the two got approval mails today Morning.

I am the only one left.... As I am happy for all four of them, but still so nervous and on the edge, Especially now that dates are set to go back in May, (as my wife says I am in a shell of my own). Picking up fights with everyone (especially the wife) on small matters or shouting/scolding the kids...

Wish there was some method to this madness for application processing at USCIS.

[vgraj1]

Nishant_imt,

People who never receive their hard copy PERM approval do apply, asking USCIS to obtain a copy from DOL. It probably does delay the process, but that probably won't be a concern, given the time for the dates to become Current again.

The other option which occurs to me is that even if you apply on the basis of your original PERM/I-140, you will have become AC21 portable by the time your I-485 is adjudicated. Working at the original location wouldn't be necessary. I don't know the legality of that approach and your Employer would have to play ball.

Best to discuss it with your attorney. I totally understand your wish not to miss the boat.

Good luck.

PS I think from anecdotal evidence, many people did exactly what you are thinking of doing in August 2007, before the last filing date on August 17, 2007.

Hi Spec, My previous desi company applied for my I-140 using labor substitution in 2007 with EB2I priority date of March 2002 with a copy of PERM asking USCIS to get the original PERM from DOL. USCIS did'nt do it and rejected my I-140 due to original PERM not being provided. It was a non-appelable rejection; my desi company tried through ALIA but it did not work out; so I lost my 2002 PD.

[self.coach]

Now that retrogression to Aug 15 2007 is announced, and imminent in the May 2012 bulletin, I keep thinking "mera number kab aayega"....is retrogression ne saale sab sapno pe paani pher diya. saaala mera number kab aayega? 2012? 2013? 2014 (gulp)?

[bvsamrat]

My opinion: advancing 2 years in 2 months and going back to 4 years again-: To see how many EB2-485 applications(approved and pending) and then formulate some intelligent plan/approach on how to tackle other catagory-EB3. May be that, from now on the spill over of numbers will be distributed evenly to both catagories rather than giving majority to EB2 - so as to make EB3 also progress at some speed.

[ontheedge]

I am the only one left.... As I am happy for all four of them, but still so nervous and on the edge, Especially now that dates are set to go back in May, (as my wife says I am in a shell of my own). Picking up fights with everyone (especially the wife) on small matters or shouting/scolding the kids...

Wish there was some method to this madness for application processing at USCIS.

It is disconcerting...but there's nothing really gained by getting too frustrated, right? Keep your spirits up..and no fighting/ scolding the little ones It is PURE LUCK at this point.