EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[mygctracker]

mygctracker,

I'm not sure it can be said to be a USCIS mistake. Rather it is a result of the Cut Off Dates not retrogressing earlier.

Generally, USCIS appear to have processed cases in VB order. Along the way, they have generated a large number of RFEs, which they then have to wait for a response to.

In the meantime, USCIS have continued to process the applications and eventually started on the January VB filers.

With the Cut Off Dates still meaning everybody was Current, any Jan VB cases that were adjudicated and found approvable had to be approved. To do anything else would have been unlawful if the visa request was granted. Clearly, the VO are still giving out visas for these dates.

Had the COD retrogressed earlier, then those cases could not have been approved and would have started to increase the Demand Data totals.

I think it was very difficult for the Visa Office. USCIS don't have an enviable history for approving cases quickly. I was slightly surprised the Cut Off Dates did not retrogress somewhat in the April VB.

Now we are left with all of April with the COD still at May 2010.

The VO do have the option of stopping allocation of visas to EB2-IC, if they think there are no more numbers available.

I am aware that my conclusions are based on certain assumptions, which might be proved incorrect. I've tried to figure the numbers using different approaches and reached the same conclusion. I actually hope I am wrong.

Even so, a "spillover season" consisting of the first 6 months, rather than the last 3 months is still an improvement. In terms of building an inventory and allowing as many people as possible to file their I485, the VO have done a very good job, even if people don't appreciate that fact at the moment..

My take anyway.

Spec,

Agree. One of my friend with PD 2010 got lucky and has been able to file AOS, he's lucky because his son is turning 21 next year. I'm sure there are many such cases, and hence CO has done a commendable job by finding some way thru this murky system.

Visa consumption may have reached CO's expected levels already, but I strongly doubt if he wants to make May bulletin effective in April itself. And anyways, what's the need. If thru April month, CIS requests for excessive visa numbers for approvable cases, then he might say 'Nay' and report them on DD. Isn't it?

On the other hand, CIS CSR's might have busy time with Jan filers calling in to open SR's though.

Thanks

[self.coach]

Just curious: What does "LUD" mean?

[vizcard]

Just curious: What does "LUD" mean?

Last Updated Date

[soggadu]

http://immigrationroad.com/blog/pote...-against-eb1c/

petition against EB1 C???
Wow...where is all this leading to?

do you think Eb2 i/c going to gain anything out of this ???

[yzzozzy]

Now that EB2IC is going to be retrogressed to August 2007 in next month or so, what happens to the folks (like me) who have received the fee notices from NVC? The fees are valid only for one year and there is no hope for my PD (June 2011) to be current in that time frame. I haven't paid the fees yet but just checking what my options are. Thanks!

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is what Ron posted on his forum. I haven't read the document but thought it may be of some help in understanding USCIS processing times so posting it here.

The following exchange comes from the USCIS Service Center Operations Directorate (SCOPS) and American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) Meeting, November 30, 2011:

3. Processing Times

AILA members continue to have a number of questions regarding actual versus posted processing times and the appropriate procedures to make inquiries with the National Customer Service Center (NCSC) if a case appears to be beyond processing times. Would SCOPS please advise respecting the relationship between current posted processing times and actual processing times since actual times in several categories (I-129 and I-824 for example) appear to be longer than posted times even when one accounts for the 45 day lag between gathering and posting the data.

USCIS Response: USCIS strives to complete cases on the “first in – first out” business practice. There are many cases that are completed out of sequence due to issues such as requests for further information from the applicant. The processing time calculation assumes the first in – first out method, therefore even though the calculations may indicate the Service is processing all cases within established processing time goals, there may be some cases that seem to be processed outside the time limit due to the fact that those cases have been put into active suspense. The processing time calculation is based on the volume of “active” pending cases as represented by the number of weeks or months of new application receipts recorded. Active pending cases are those cases that are available for processing, as opposed to active suspense cases that are waiting for applicants to accomplish a step in the process such as biometric appointments or providing evidence. USCIS currently calculates its processing times using active pending case volumes. An example of the process used to calculate processing times is as follows: if the active pending was at 200 cases for the reporting month, and for the past four months the receipts were exactly 50 cases each month, the processing time would be calculated as four months.

The processing times are calculated from final statistics compiled during the prior month. Based upon the methods currently used to collect performance data, USCIS requires 30 days to conduct quality control audits and to make corrections before final data can be published. Another 15 days is needed to post the processing times on the web. USCIS publishes its official statistics only after all data is reconciled. At the conclusion of each reporting month, performance statistics are sent to the Office of Performance and Quality (OPQ) in headquarters where the data is compiled and reconciled. Most often the OPQ, Performance Management team will complete the reconciliation by the end of the month. As an example, the reconciliation for the month of January 2011 was completed on the 28th day of February 2011. At that time, processing times are calculated and sent to the field offices for their review and acceptance or rebuttal. The offices are instructed to return their findings by the 8th day of the next month to enable OPQ to finalize the processing times and get them posted to the web page by the 15th day of the month - 45 days after the end of the actual performance month.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I Now that EB2IC is going to be retrogressed to August 2007 in next month or so, what happens to the folks (like me) who have received the fee notices from NVC? The fees are valid only for one year and there is no hope for my PD (June 2011) to be current in that time frame. I haven't paid the fees yet but just checking what my options are. Thanks!

I believe if you don't pay fees within a year than your notice will expire and they will probably issue you a new notice. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.

[eb2visa]

This topic was discussed already in this forum, could you please browse 5-6 pages back.

I Now that EB2IC is going to be retrogressed to August 2007 in next month or so, what happens to the folks (like me) who have received the fee notices from NVC? The fees are valid only for one year and there is no hope for my PD (June 2011) to be current in that time frame. I haven't paid the fees yet but just checking what my options are. Thanks!

I believe if you don't pay fees within a year than your notice will expire and they will probably issue you a new notice. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.

[GC-Utopic]

Technically No but if they chose to, then they can find out from SSA/IRS.

occasionally USCIS asks for tax returns if there is a large gap between RD and Approval

[soggadu]

did you guys see this data...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

[vizcard]

did you guys see this data...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

Nishant and/or Spec had posted this previously. We can expect a similar number in Q2 as well.

[billikoot]

Folks, Gurus,

Have you encountered this issue before? - there seems to be absolutely no movement / progress from NSC on FP appointments, EAD / AP Approvals for Feb filers. In your experience do you think CO's statement about "regression" has put the breaks on all good work being done or is this typical NSC work timeology?

I also thought I saw Q suggest that once you are eligible to apply for I-485 that your young'uns cannot be "aged out" of GC if there is a delay in processing - am I reading it right? For example son is 19 and we have applied for AOS. But in all probability we may still be hanging w/o GC in the next 2 years - but he is still elligible for GC because of when we applied?

Thank you for all your good work.

[gc2008]

Hello Gurus,
I called L2 officer at USCIS today as I was becoming restless. Unfortunately nothing I got from the call. Now I started worrying if it is going to have any bad effect on my 485 processing. Will this effect my 485 processing?

Thanks

[self.coach]

Hello Gurus,
I called L2 officer at USCIS today as I was becoming restless. Unfortunately nothing I got from the call. Now I started worrying if it is going to have any bad effect on my 485 processing. Will this effect my 485 processing?

Thanks

Just for calling about your own case? No. Relax, have a beer.

[Spectator]

Folks, Gurus,

I also thought I saw Q suggest that once you are eligible to apply for I-485 that your young'uns cannot be "aged out" of GC if there is a delay in processing - am I reading it right? For example son is 19 and we have applied for AOS. But in all probability we may still be hanging w/o GC in the next 2 years - but he is still elligible for GC because of when we applied?

Thank you for all your good work.

billikoot,

Yes, that is correct.

The filing of an I-485 for the child freezes the CSPA age to the age at date of receipt.

The CSPA Age is the actual age when the dates became Current minus the time it took for the I-140 to be approved.

If you're interested, this CSPA Memo is good reading. The section of interest is entitled "Adjustment Under a Preference Category".

[srimurthy]

The numbers from Q1 show only 4000 pending 485 applicaitons ---
4th Quarter Total
Receipts Approvals
I-485 Employment Adjustment 35,445 31,541

That involves all categories. And is this in line with what approvals we got and adding to that the application receipts in Q2, can that number give a projection on the final date resting by 2012 end..
Do these numbers also include dependents in Employment Category or just primaries. There is another form, Family Adjustments and does that include dependents or only family based GC applications?

did you guys see this data...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

[suninphx]

The numbers from Q1 show only 4000 pending 485 applicaitons ---
4th Quarter Total
Receipts Approvals
I-485 Employment Adjustment 35,445 31,541

That involves all categories. And is this in line with what approvals we got and adding to that the application receipts in Q2, can that number give a projection on the final date resting by 2012 end..
Do these numbers also include dependents in Employment Category or just primaries. There is another form, Family Adjustments and does that include dependents or only family based GC applications?

I think we have to add cases carried forward from previous FY.

[yesman]

I haven't seen many approvals in the past couple of days. I just follow posts in this forum which is a very small sample space but still. Anyone else feeling this?

[self.coach]

I searched on Trackitt - none of the filers in past three months and with Priority Date in 2009 have recieved the GC yet. All i485 approvals were for applicants with 2008 PD. Does this hint that they will give GCs to applicants with PD before Dec 2008 only, and retrogression would apply to 2009 and beyond. What say?

[GCKnowHow]

I think they are processing jan filers (PD 01JAN09), Its too early for Feb filers.

I searched on Trackitt - none of the filers in past three months and with Priority Date in 2009 have recieved the GC yet. All i485 approvals were for applicants with 2008 PD. Does this hint that they will give GCs to applicants with PD before Dec 2008 only, and retrogression would apply to 2009 and beyond. What say?

[soggadu]

Nishant and/or Spec had posted this previously. We can expect a similar number in Q2 as well.

vizz... i think the number in Q2 is going to be atleast 2 times more than 35445 mentioned in the document... remember there was only 10 months movement in first Q1 and 26 months movement in Q2...

[vizcard]

vizz... i think the number in Q2 is going to be atleast 2 times more than 35445 mentioned in the document... remember there was only 10 months movement in first Q1 and 26 months movement in Q2...

True but the USCIS didn't become 2.5 times more efficient. Plus there's the 50-54% cap...assuming they were staying legal.

Edit: I'm talking approvals. I realize you were talking about receipts. We are on the same page now.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I was reading SSN instruction form today and it says:

"If you are not authorized to work in the US , we can issue you a SS card only if you need the number for a valid not-work reason. Your card will be marked to show you cannot work and if you do work, we will notify DHS."

100% true.

From a practical standpoint though, how does the USCIS know that someone has used EAD for employment ?

(This question is purely for my educational purposes. NOTE TO OTHER POSTERS - DO NOT consider this as an option to "bend" the rules).

[vizcard]

I was reading SSN instruction form today and it says:

"If you are not authorized to work in the US , we can issue you a SS card only if you need the number for a valid not-work reason. Your card will be marked to show you cannot work and if you do work, we will notify DHS."

How would the SSA know?

[npulasat]

FYI....

I know this is not appropriate section to post this but for all my friends who are either approved or in the process of GC.

Last week USCIS official visited my friend office and asked the basic details of his employment, title and paystubs. My friend received his GC couple of months back.

On other surprising note, another friend applied 485 in the month of Jan, and his EAD is denied because his pay mentioned in the labor certification did not match with his current paycheck.

Not to discourage anyone but to share the info with all of you...