EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Well .. trackitt even shows a Dec 2008 approval. So am not sure if Oct 2008 is the cut off. I believe till the time dates remain current for a date and a case is approvable(background checks etc) ... approval will keep coming ...

i hope my turn comes :-)

TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB.

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

[vizcard]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Congrats! Are you TSC or NSC?

[essenel]

TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB.

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

Spec, thanks for your input. What is your take regarding why some cases are taking so long to approve?

[eb2ODer]

One more jan filer with PD in july 2008 got approval from TSC http://www.trackitt.com/member/mrnm

TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB.

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

[Desperate8]

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[longgcque]

Bro' ..Hope ur baby is OK and he/she gets better soon.

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[kingjeremy]

Not on the website, but someone at trackitt posted a pdf link

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull..._April2012.pdf

EB2-I: No Movement
EB3-I: 1 Sep 2002

Apologies if this has been posted before, in a rush and don't have the time to flip back a few pages.

Good luck everyone. Hope dates move forward in May.

[vizcard]

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

Hope all goes well. Your family will be in our prayers.

[mesan123]

Hoping everthing will be fine soon. Your family will be in our prayers.

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[qesehmk]

All best wishes Desper8. Things will be alright. Please keep us posted about your little one.

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[TeddyKoochu]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Many congratulations to you and your family. Hope your baby gets well soon.

[Desperate8]

Thank you family ,with your blessings the baby seems to be normal all/any tests were negative

[TeddyKoochu]

Well .. trackitt even shows a Dec 2008 approval. So am not sure if Oct 2008 is the cut off. I believe till the time dates remain current for a date and a case is approvable(background checks etc) ... approval will keep coming ...

i hope my turn comes :-)

TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB.

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

[soggadu]

Thank you family ,with your blessings the baby seems to be normal all/any tests were negative

This news is better than your GC news!!!! All the best...

[vizcard]

speaking of babies, soggadu - your avatar is funny as hell but also seriously disturbing :P

[suninphx]

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

As always great notes Teddy. If nothing changes then there is very high chance that at end of FY2012 dates will be much further than 2008 Q1. And as you rightly noted it will be combined effect of demand destruction and higher SOFAD. Let's see how things pan out. And don't be surprised if some Feb filers get approved stating next month as dates are still current. So eventually another interesting statistics would be 'remaining demand' at end of FY 2012.

[mesan123]

Soggadu Bhai changed to that avatar for Teddy...Once Teddy gets Greened, he will be back in his jolly Avatar

speaking of babies, soggadu - your avatar is funny as hell but also seriously disturbing :P

[iamdeb]

Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?

[mesan123]

She can file 6 months before her expiry. hope this helps

Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?

[Spectator]

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

Teddy,

Thanks for the kind words and your great summing up. I wish I could do that in a brief manner as well!

I mostly agree with what you say, although I have some concerns about the "ifs".

As always great notes Teddy. If nothing changes then there is very high chance that at end of FY2012 dates will be much further than 2008 Q1. And as you rightly noted it will be combined effect of demand destruction and higher SOFAD. Let's see how things pan out. And don't be surprised if some Feb filers get approved stating next month as dates are still current. So eventually another interesting statistics would be 'remaining demand' at end of FY 2012.

suninphx,

I'm sure ending dates for FY2012 will be beyond Q1 2008 because of TLB (Those Left Behind) aka people still waiting for I-485 approval with earlier PD.

Interesting you should mention approvals of Feb filers. I have been thinking about that as well.

I'm not sure when they will start, but I wondered whether that could precipitate retrogression, if CO thinks final dates will eventually lie somewhere in 2008 or early 2009. Maybe not, as he is probably laser focused on there being enough approvals and nothing else.

Eventually late PD approvals will mean that TLBs will have to wait until the next FY for approval. If there are a lot and the cases are finally adjudicated, the Cut Off Dates will move quite slowly at the beginning of FY2013.

[suninphx]

Teddy,

Thanks for the kind words and your great summing up. I wish I could do that in a brief manner as well!

I mostly agree with what you say, although I have some concerns about the "ifs".

suninphx,

I'm sure ending dates for FY2012 will be beyond Q1 2008 because of TLB (Those Left Behind) aka people still waiting for I-485 approval with earlier PD.

Interesting you should mention approvals of Feb filers. I have been thinking about that as well.

I'm not sure when they will start, but I wondered whether that could precipitate retrogression, if CO thinks final dates will eventually lie somewhere in 2008 or early 2009. Maybe not, as he is probably laser focused on there being enough approvals and nothing else.

Eventually late PD approvals will mean that TLBs will have to wait until the next FY for approval. If there are a lot and the cases are finally adjudicated, the Cut Off Dates will move quite slowly at the beginning of FY2013.

Spec,

While I agree that there could be some TLBs , but IMO, that would not be 'only' factor for FY ending dates to move beyond Q1 2008.
I really hope that some order returns to the approval dates so that we can have predictable movement. But as things stand today, it's anybody's game right now, as long as one's date stays current.

[TorreyPines]

Friends,

Below is my post back in Jan. I understand that my predictions/theories might just be a sheer coincidence/luck (Scenario B) with what is happening right now, but I strongly believe it is this forum that has enabled me to think the way I did. No other forum on the entire web! Big 5 and vital 100s, thank you!

Guys,

Long time follower, first-time poster. As other poster said, this site undoubtedly has the best Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR). Kudos to all.

I am trying to understand what is the parameter being used by CO to move dates forward (long/short movements). If demand is gauged by:

A. Visa numbers requested by USCIS: These numbers increase big enough only when Dec-Feb filers are documentarily qualified. Not going to happen for 2-3 of months from now. So can expect 3-6 month/VB movement for 2-3 months OR 1 year movement in March VB and stall for next two. After that comes 2012 spillover season.

B. Number of I-485 receipts with some multiplication factor: Will CO be interested in these numbers since # of receipts means nothing to him when it comes to today's visa numbers' consumption? If interested, forward movement might stop starting April VB. March VB is 50-50 for at max ~6-month movement and is subject to how many file I-485 for PD 2009 (assuming good percentage of PD 2008 guys will file by end of Feb).

C. He does a inky-pinky-ponky on different PD cutoffs, which I hope not.

Can experts agree/disagree which one of the above is most-likely?

PS: Apologize if this is an already discussed and blessed discussion.

[Desperate8]

This news is better than your GC news!!!! All the best...

Thanks Soggadu and others ,yes GC news bought a lot of joy but the next news that our baby had nothing but a superficial skin allergy brough back the jaan in us - For me nothing is as precious as my family - and I believe its the same for all of us.
I was told about this forum by one of my friend , his PD is Sep 2007 TSC still waiting , I definately was not expecting my CPO mails, I still dont know how TSC is processing cases - One thing I want to share at this juncture is that my I-140 was denied for a simple and un-usual reason , it was a premium process and still it took close to 8 months to get the approval. One of my friend was joking around saying that I would have got the CPO mail because the officer who had denied my case earlier would have added notes to give my case more priority - anyways I want and would pray for all my friends in this forum and would want to be a part of your celebrations aswell.

Please keep posting your success stories , I will keep you posted with any updates on my end.

BTW how long after CPO mails would I be seeing the next set of mails for decesion and then finally the GC - how far am I from touching my cards ?

[qesehmk]

D
What exactly the mail says?

I wonder your case is an indication of preadjudicated cases this year just like the ones from 2007 filers.

Thanks Soggadu and others ,yes GC news bought a lot of joy but the next news that our baby had nothing but a superficial skin allergy brough back the jaan in us - For me nothing is as precious as my family - and I believe its the same for all of us.
I was told about this forum by one of my friend , his PD is Sep 2007 TSC still waiting , I definately was not expecting my CPO mails, I still dont know how TSC is processing cases - One thing I want to share at this juncture is that my I-140 was denied for a simple and un-usual reason , it was a premium process and still it took close to 8 months to get the approval. One of my friend was joking around saying that I would have got the CPO mail because the officer who had denied my case earlier would have added notes to give my case more priority - anyways I want and would pray for all my friends in this forum and would want to be a part of your celebrations aswell.

Please keep posting your success stories , I will keep you posted with any updates on my end.

BTW how long after CPO mails would I be seeing the next set of mails for decesion and then finally the GC - how far am I from touching my cards ?

[usernameisnotvalid]

Keep in mind VSC is taking almost 5-6 months to approve an extension.

Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?