EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

That is my conspiracy theory, Teddy. Any new movement by Mr. CO in the bulletin released this month = the visa consumption in the past month.

This will continue as long as there are visas available.

[vishnu]

So a good Demand Data (like today) implies 1) vast majority (if not all) of the last few month's I-485s still haven't hit pre-approval stage. 2) Visa numbers still exisit

Is this fair?

[pdfeb09]

That is my conspiracy theory, Teddy. Any new movement by Mr. CO in the bulletin released this month = the visa consumption in the past month.

This will continue as long as there are visas available.

This implies CO knows how many applications they will get in a given movement period. I don't think that is possible. I like your theory however.

[nellore]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

[kd2008]

Spec, What happens when DOS runs out of numbers for a given period. In that case, even if the dates are current in a given period of time, DOS may not be able to allocate VISAS and the DD will start accumulating numbers causing DOS to retrogress.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

That is going to be interesting. Typically they may run out of visas at the quarter end. It seems that it did not happen in the Dec-Jan transition. Let us see what happens at the March-Apr transition. If we see a sudden drop in approvals at March end then yes, the quarterly numbers were exhausted and we will see an accumulation in the next month's demand data for May bulletin.

[vizcard]

So a good Demand Data (like today) implies 1) vast majority (if not all) of the last few month's I-485s still haven't hit pre-approval stage. 2) Visa numbers still exisit

Is this fair?

Yes. Although, I wouldn't call it "pre-approval stage". It is more in the "approval stage". Just haven't been adjudicated for a variety of reasons (e.g., FP pending, RFEs, background checks, etc.)

[kd2008]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

If the H1-B extension is beyond 6 years and at the time of adjudication of H1-B, there is an I-485 pending against your name, then you will get an 1 yr extension. If the I-485 hasn't been filed at the time of adjudication of H1-B, then the extension will be for 3 yrs. I am not an expert. So please wait for what others have to say.

[mesan123]

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done .....

[pdfeb09]

That is going to be interesting. Typically they may run out of visas at the quarter end. It seems that it did not happen in the Dec-Jan transition. Let us see what happens at the March-Apr transition. If we see a sudden drop in approvals at March end then yes, the quarterly numbers were exhausted and we will see an accumulation in the next month's demand data for May bulletin.

As Teddy points out, USCIS processing speed is the key to all this. If USCIS can consume more visas than available in a given quarter, retrogression will set in. Not otherwise...

[mesan123]

One more Jan Filer

485 card received: waiting
485 approved on: 3/7/2012
EAD/AP combo card received: 3/2/12
EAD/AP approved on: 2/26/2012
FP completed: 2/1/2012
Early Walk-in: Yes
Original ASC: Elizabeth
Fingerprinted ASC: Long Island City, NY (because its near to my office)
ND: 01/10/2012
RD: 01/12/2012
PD: 09/16/2008

[nellore]

H-1B extension is beyond 6 years. I would not have filed I-485 as dates are current in this bulletion (but effectively from 1st of April). So, I thought about this and am going to file my extension in premium so that i can get an approval before my date is effectively current. But still i ahd the doubt that the dates are published to be current..so?

[Kanmani]

Nearly 8K+ Eb2IC backlog was cleared within the 2012 Q1 quota , with this Dos could have ran out of Visa numbers . If this is true then they are going on approving cases by stealing numbers from Q2 . My belief is there should be some bending of rules happened with a mutual agreement between USCIS and Dos.

Note: I still believe 8k approved from 2011 quota until proven wrong.Spillover numbers are otherwise unused numbers. How could Spillover happen in Day 1 of the fiscal year ? If we donate used clothes, do we donate them right away coming out from an apparel store?

[kd2008]

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done .....

That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

http://www.trackitt.com/member/niranjanvemuri

http://www.trackitt.com/member/igreened

Above two were also approved. Both are NSC and Jan filers.

[mesan123]

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....

That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

[kd2008]

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....

We are typing at the same time. I am going to stop and let you post.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Demand from AOS cases cannot accumulate in the report as long as the Cut Off Dates remain Current for any EB2-IC case USCIS might adjudicate. The case only becomes documentarily qualified at the point of approval. In that case the visa is issued and consumed immediately, never hitting the Demand Data.

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

[srimurthy]

You will get 1 years extension as the dates are current. Rest everything is luck.

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

[vizcard]

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

[TeddyKoochu]

There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

[Spectator]

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said

Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

[Spectator]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

nellore,

This memo (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:

Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to §104(c) of AC21 must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations.

Adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of the filing of the Form I-129 petition in which a request for an §104(c) of AC21 H-1B extension request is made. If the H-1B alien beneficiary is shown to be ineligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status because of the per country visa limitations, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted for a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

[nellore]

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies

nellore,

This memo (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:





So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

[rasknorr]

Sorry if this is already posted (please let me know i will delete).

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Does this any helpful info...

[essenel]

I called USCIS this morning (this is the first time I tried calling) and all they said was that TSC is processing applications from April and that I'll need to wait. I asked if I could get any information on background-check and was said "no". I didn't bother asking them to transfer me to L2. From the way things are looking, I don't think there'll be any change to our application status anytime soon. I just hope they still have our applications and did not "misplace" them.

Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

[bookworm]

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies

First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.