EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[usernameisnotvalid]

If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?

Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009

[kd2008]

If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?

No. Approvals are not by PD as you can see. As long as dates do not retrogress, approvals can come from any of the cases that have been filed. Q and I were talking about where will the dates be once they decide to retrogress. That is a different thing.

[vizcard]

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

[Transformer]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.

I don't think it is a mistake. This is what he says:

The magic happened to me last night.

I am greened!!!!!!!!!

Still can not believe it. Waiting for the physical card to arrive before I start jumping.

Got the CPO mail at 6:00 P.M. yesterday
Got the decision mail this morning

Dependent is still pending.

Based on his profile, I see it's one of the low hanging fruits.

1. MS in USA? Yes.
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - Small Company Non IT
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? No
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 6th year
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 6th year
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? 221G in March 2011 at visa interview
(Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..)
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? Submitted birth certificate registered 4 weeks after birth along with one affidavit from parents as parents last name was not abbreviated in birth certificate.
8. what about flu shots? Yes

I don't think this will draw any conclusion on how the retrogression is going to be. If anyone in second hald of 2008 gets greened before retrogression they are lucky, as I would think the dates will retrogress around June 2008.

[kd2008]

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

But the approvals are not "spillover" in the eyes of Mr. CO. When the demand is less than the available quarterly quota, visas are allocated without regards to the country quotas. We saw this happening in Q1 and are seeing this happen in Q2. When USCIS starts asking for more visas - that is their processing is faster than the quarterly quota, Mr. CO will retrogress and then start using the "spillover" concept.

Inventory is totally different from demand. USCIS has to process the inventory to turn it into demand. That is why I have been saying pressure is on USCIS to process enough cases.

Because there were not enough cases in the inventory at the start of the year, Mr. CO moved dates to generate it. Now USCIS has to process it. It is processing it somewhat orderly fashion but not necessarily in FIFO manner as we can see from the approvals.

This kind of inline processing should have happened all along but USCIS was never good at it and its processing times fluctuated wildly. Thankfully it is happening now. My wild guess is: Mr. CO made dramatic movements in Jan and Feb. For March he replenished was was used up aka Jan approvals and hence we saw a 4 month movement for March. May be he will replenish again in April what was used in Feb. If he is able to do this consistently, there may not be any need for retrogression and we will have a great buffer of inventory always. But this is wishful thinking and very ideal scenario. USCIS always pours water over our dreams.

[qesehmk]

visas are generally issues in order of PD only - but only for cases that are ready to be assigned visas. Cases do not become ready and eligible by PD. They havetheir own course depending on how much due diligence each case requires. Makes sense?

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

[HR3012]

How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

[enigma]

Another Jan filer (PD - Dec 2008) posted on trackitt that he just got his 485 approval!! Search for the user kumariah on this page -

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...hering/page/68

How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

[nostwal]

Damn, this is nice stuff

[nishant2200]

How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

I am not sure how it internally works, but per my lawyer, he always maintains, education in USA, steady employment with employer, last three years tax returns/W2 .... => rubber stamp approval once it gets to an officer.

My addition to this is: 485 are adjudicated by senior officers. The file only reaches them when it has been prepared by contractors and junior level officers. It would mean arranging everything properly, putting tabs to indicate areas of interest, indicating any potential areas of verification for more evidence, receiving all background checks and marking them as complete, or needs further review for possible derogatory results by senior officer, I mean one can go on and brainstorm on this. My point is by the time the file is given to the adjudicating officer, it has been well prepared for consumption. As part of this process, also I think, the contractors/juniors would put in the I-140 and PERM file, because this has to be synced up with the EVL and a projection taken based on EVL and past years tax returns W2 supplied.

[HR3012]

I am not sure how it internally works, but per my lawyer, he always maintains, education in USA, steady employment with employer, last three years tax returns/W2 .... => rubber stamp approval once it gets to an officer.

My addition to this is: 485 are adjudicated by senior officers. The file only reaches them when it has been prepared by contractors and junior level officers. It would mean arranging everything properly, putting tabs to indicate areas of interest, indicating any potential areas of verification for more evidence, receiving all background checks and marking them as complete, or needs further review for possible derogatory results by senior officer, I mean one can go on and brainstorm on this. My point is by the time the file is given to the adjudicating officer, it has been well prepared for consumption. As part of this process, also I think, the contractors/juniors would put in the I-140 and PERM file, because this has to be synced up with the EVL and a projection taken based on EVL and past years tax returns W2 supplied.

Thanks for the explanation Nishant, it makes perfect sense now.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for the explanation Nishant, it makes perfect sense now.

Welcome, I am just trying to think their process, which frankly no one knows! I think though, it just helps in bit early approval maybe, if they are in the mode of reaching some processing goal fast, but honestly, there can't be any legal bias or official law to do any partiality. Anyone who is eligible is eligible, it's just some cases due to the nature of their condition, maybe easy to approve fast.

[samudrala]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

[derekjbj]

March 2011 EB2-I received NVC Fee Notice

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ate-nvc-notice

[maggie]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

Congratulations samudrala!!

[GCKnowHow]

Am I in dream... I see in trackitt that someone with 4th Sep 2008 PD got approval.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

Many congratulations to you and your family, enjoy the moment finally another PWMB case is greened.

[vishnu]

Looks like multiple people with H1 2011 PDs are getint NVC fee notices. All good...

[nellore]

Yes..me too..PD 02/02/11

[soggadu]

wow...looks like EB2 is going to get current soon.... all the best guys....get ready!!!!!!!!!

[yesman]

Looks like multiple people with H1 2011 PDs are getint NVC fee notices. All good...

What's the implication of NVC notice? That they should allow the person to file for 485 within 12 months? Or is it that they approve 485 within 12 months?

[just_curious]

What's the implication of NVC notice? That they should allow the person to file for 485 within 12 months? Or is it that they approve 485 within 12 months?

Sending NVC notice is like hanging a carrot in front of the horse, totally confusing..

I know that they don't necessarily need to approve 485, can anyone give a concrete answer for the first part of the question? Is there any time frame at all?

[harsha131]

Are you sure this is EB2-India?

Damn, this is nice stuff

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is what Ron Gotcher had to say about the "low hanging fruit" theory.

I went through our records today, to see what results we have gotten. First, I found that most of the AOS approvals we received were for EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases where the applicant had an I-485 on file and pending since 2007. These were largely all pre-adjudicated cases. We have had a few new filings that have been approved, but they appear to be anomalies. That is, they were filed after other new filings (in some cases months later), but have been approved nonetheless. This is not at all an unusual phenomenon with the USCIS. The USCIS Ombudsman criticized the USCIS in one of the annual reports for "picking the low hanging fruit." That is, they would pull out what they considered to be very easy cases and approve those, rather than taking more complex cases that were filed earlier.

Hope this clears some air.

[Jan2008]

All my dear peeps,

I wanted to share the news of us getting greened!!

wohoo!!

PD: Jan 6th, 2008
485 Approval: Feb 28th

Thank you all on this forum and hope everyone gets greened soon. God is great!