I see, yes the IRS is for past years, for taxes you already filed.Originally Posted by manzoorraza
I see, yes the IRS is for past years, for taxes you already filed.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
If 485 is not approved, then anyways eligible dependent can apply anytime if dates allow to do so. I think the main thing is you should be married before the 485 is approved.
Kanmani and Spec had good knowledge on this follow to join etc, lets see what they say.
Last edited by nishant2200; 02-27-2012 at 04:11 PM.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Yes , dependent can file separately as long as primary's PD is current on the day on which USCIS receives the derivative's I-485. In this case the primary should be maintaining a valid non-immigrant status to allow the spouse to maintain dependent status between the two separate I-485 filings ( primary + dependent).
If the spouse has his/her own non-immigrant status , the primary need not worry abt his H1/L1 after I-485.
Another calc approach:
Approvals in Q1 FY 2012 EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 13K estimated
Jan 2012 inventory:
EB1 = 15.5K
EB2(nonIC) = 13.5K
Jan to Sep addition: EB1: 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
Jan to Sep addition: EB2(nonIC): 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
(For EB2(nonIC): With the PERM approval slow down this may decrease, with an approval ramp up this may increase)
It is typical for USCIS to carry about 7K or 8K cases in the inventory for EB1 at all times. Same for EB2(nonIC). Let us say that in Oct 2012, USCIS has EB1 inventory of 7K and EB2(nonIC) inventory of 7K. This implies USCIS did a fantastic job of approving EB1 and EB2(nonIC) cases.
So how many did USCIS approve in FY 2012 for EB1+EB2(nonIC)?
13K + 29K + 36K - 14K = 64K
EB1 + EB2 + Spillover from EB4&EB5 = 84K
Therefore, EB2IC SOFAD = 20K
This may be the lowest amount.
If USCIS ends up carrying about the same 29K cases for EB1+EB2(nonIC) in its inventory by Oct 2012 as it is now, then
EB2IC SOFAD increases to 35K.
So it is a wide range and it utterly depends on USCIS processing speed and what it processes first.
I hope folks appreciate, why USCIS may feel the pressure in coming months to process enough cases.
If the EB2(nonIC) filings decrease due to a PERM slow down, then the SOFAD increases even more. This is unlikely, in my opinion.
Q, Spec, Teddy, what is your take?
Last edited by kd2008; 02-27-2012 at 05:11 PM.
kd ,
when the entire Eb3 category is retrogressed, approvals are made from pre-adjudicated cases, then why EB3 Q1 total is 6.5k instead of 10K? ( Sorry I am really confused , this is a layman question)
I am only considering USCIS processing for my analysis.
Indeed, EB3 approvals for Q1 FY 2012 are taken to be 10K. Of this, I estimated about 3.5K are CP. 6.5K are AOS approvals from pre-adjudicated cases.
the 31k approvals in the document posted by Spec for Q1FY 2012 are from USCIS only.
Hi there folks, first timer here! I've originally posted this on trackitt, but got no responses. I wonder why! can anyone shed some light?
My PD is 22-JUN-2011, EB2IC. My I-140 got approved on 08-FEB-2012. I've noticed on the approval notice that my case was transferred to NVC. Our attorney did not specify CP during I-140 but somehow USCIS transferred my case to NVC. I've noticed that someone else on the forum also are in the same situation. I've read thru the advantages of doing CP vs AOS. I've no issues going to India if that's the faster route to get GC. I'm willing to take the risk. I have the following questions and would greatly appreciate it if someone can answer them -
1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?
Thank you for your time!
KD, 2K per month as average rate between EB1 and EB2ROW is fine.
However EB1 continues to come in at approx 3K per month. Whereas EB2ROW now-a-days is about 1.5K. So overall 52K for together would be a realistic number for full year between the two.
Year 2011 ended with higher than usual EB1 inventory at 15K. So that is a risk. Assuming 5K will be cleared on top of 2012 EB1 demand, the total between EB1 and EB2ROW will be 57K. So together they should yield SOFAD of about 23K. Then add EB4 and EB5 - which should come in at 6-7K. We are talking about 30K SOFAD in 2012.
Then reduce it by 3K EB3 porting. Thats about 27K. 27K is about 11 months inventory at normal EB2IC density of 2.5K per month. But if we think EB2IC is about 2K or 1.6K then .... do the math and predict where you think 27K will take EB2IC !!!
My take is that the combined number for EB2IC has to be somewhere between 2-2.5K giving a total movement of 11-14 months (its fun when numbers tie up!) 11-14 months on top of last years movement means - Mar-Jun 2008 for EB2IC. That's my comfort zone of course. I know others would prefers Q2 or even Q3 of 2008.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, thank you for your feedback. Yes, I am also thinking that the dates will end up somewhere around middle of 2008.
1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
Yes, You are correct. Uscis and Consular posts request Visa numbers from the same department of State . The percentage is approximately 85: 15 in the overall 140k. Usually Uscis requests Visa number after adjudication of the application But Consular posts request visa numbers before adjudication. When the interview is not successful , the consular would return the visa number to DoS.
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
We are unfamiliar with Consular processing procedures and no real time experiences are posted in the internet. I personally know very little to answer this question.
THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf
The above document says Visa numbers are allocated strictly by Priority Dates. Each month DoS receives request for Visa numbers from USCIS & Consular posts. After thorough examination of the requests, they allot Visa numbers going by PD seniority only. So there should be comparatively many applicants before you to get a visa number assigned .
For example , if DOS receives a request for visa numbers (a) June 2009 PD consular processing application (b) March 2008 PD from USCIS , then my assumption is uscis picks the visa number immediately but June 2009 pd should wait for its turn . If a bulk of applications mount for Visa number both from USCIS and consulates, DOS would retrogress the dates.
What I personally feel is when a 2008 pd applicant is still waiting to adjust his status , there is zero chance for a 2011 pd applicant to get visa number assigned very soon eventhough he has chosen the relatively easier route.
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?
This part is still not clear, Attorney Ron says when I-485 is denied in a situation the applicant has passed 6 years , then the H1b is invalid.
Last edited by Kanmani; 02-27-2012 at 07:34 PM.
1. No one gets an upper hand. They all request visas as and when they need it. If there is too much demand from CP and AOS then dates will retrogress to a point that only available visas are requested. However, CP processing starts even before your dates are current whereas AOS only starts once your dates are current. CP applications will be processed up to scheduling of visa interview before the dates are current. As soon as dates become current CP applicants will be scheduled for an interview and Visa Numbers will be reserved at this point (so even if dates retrogress you will still go for interview and get GC).
2. Keep in mind it is not a given that everyone (myself included) will get interviews anytime soon. As I mentioned above if you have your interview scheduled then you will get an immigrant visa irrespective of whether the dates retrogressed or not. Once you enter US you will get your GC by mail.
3. Yes you can come back on H1. Yes, you should be able to start GC process all over again.
Finally, I would like to caution you that June 2011 may not be current anytime soon (my PD is June 2011 as well). Historically, dates have become current within an year of receiving NVC fee bill but it may not hold going forward. Moreover, if more than a year passes since you applied through CP then you will have to start the process all over again (you will not have to pay the fees again).
I think the OP has 2 years left on H1B so he should be fine.
I agree the date will settle around July-August 2008 for FY 2012. However, the real question is when will they start moving again. I think CO will have to wait until all the applications up to high watermark established this time are cleared before moving the dates. So, if and when the dates retrogress, I think it will take at least a year to get to the high watermark i.e. in FY 2013 there will be no movement beyond the high watermark established in this cycle.
immi2910 & Kanmani, thank you both very much for your inputs. I'll just wait for the April bulletin for now.
This is true. We'll have potentially a new set of PWMBs too. All the more reason to lobby for HR3012.
Long time follower...first time poster.
I am not inclined to believe that there will be another set of huge PWMBs.
I believe, they do have visibility to numbers/projections better than we assume..may be a desi is wirting some code for themwhich gives those numbersas we do here.
As far as HR 3012..lets see two scenerios..
1. Dates retrogress..lots of PWMBs. Then that makes sense for lobbying for HR 3012.
2. Dates are current. The it is still easier to lobby as the opposition will be minimum.
Some one on Trackitt with a PD September 2008 got Greened.
can you post the details
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
Looke for Hope2009 user
Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009
Guys -
Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.
I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue
I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.
NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.
FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.
My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery
EAD approval date is 22 Feb. He received EAD on 27th. And he got CPO email on 27th as well.
Very interesting. Almost 2 months to get EAD and a real quick turnaround on the GC as well. NSC staying true to form.
It is kind of ridiculous that while 30% of Jan EB2I NSC filers are yet to get FP Appointment Letter, 65% of the same filers are yet to get EAD/AP, and one case flies through the radar and gets greened. Although overall it is a good sign that they are now starting on Jan cases - I just wish they would make the FP/EAD/AP process quick as well.
There is of course an element of luck in who picks up your case and how quick/through that person is - but I think it is still within the usual variance of the process and it is not all lottery. There will always be cases that will be in the long tail end of the normal curve (both sides unfortunately), however, as long as bulk of the decisions fall in the middle - the process is working fine.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.
Guys -
Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.
I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue
I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.
NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.
FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.
My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery
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