EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

I understand OR is the I485 applications to PERM ratio but what does it stand for?

Please refer this post:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms

[immi2910]

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2010, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 17.5K
FY 2011 Receipts = 78K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 26.3K
Visas used up = 17.5K + 78K - 26.3K = 69.2K
Quota for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5= 100K
EB2IC usage for FY 2011 = 100K - 69.2K = 30.8K <--- This was our SOFAD last year.

So you see not all receipts are approved in the same year and this will affect your calculation.

I am sorry but I do not understand why you reduced 26.3K. Also, when you say SOFAD do you mean just spillover or spillover + IC quota?

I am working under the assumption that there are 1,600 application a month (probably fewer in late 2008 and whole of 2009). 15K visas will be used up to 15 Mar 2008. So beyond that it is a simple calculation ((SOFAD + IC Quota (~5.5K) - 15000)/1600)

[TeddyKoochu]

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

Thanks Kamnani, let me tabulate

Teddy - 0.75
Kanmani - .55 (I just averaged).
Spec and Sun lets have your responses based on your latest thoughts. Dec filings ae being approved pretty consistently the only way this is possible is that the SOFAd is huge thanks to EB2 ROW.

[immi2910]

Please refer this post:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms

Thank You. It was driving me nuts trying to come up with a name for letter O . I had guessed, correctly I might add, what R was.

[kkruna]

These calcs assume same number of ROW I-485 (we have to make some assumption). What if this assumption is incorrect?

[immi2910]

These calcs assume same number of ROW I-485 (we have to make some assumption). What if this assumption is incorrect?

Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

[kkruna]

Yes but they are moving dates to consume total number of available visa (on quarterly basis?). They are not looking for IC or ROW. SOFAD gets into internal function between IC and ROW whereas the only real constraint is overall number for total visas.

Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

[kd2008]

I am sorry but I do not understand why you reduced 26.3K. Also, when you say SOFAD do you mean just spillover or spillover + IC quota?

I am working under the assumption that there are 1,600 application a month (probably fewer in late 2008 and whole of 2009). 15K visas will be used up to 15 Mar 2008. So beyond that it is a simple calculation ((SOFAD + IC Quota (~5.5K) - 15000)/1600)

Because these cases are still in the inventory and have not consumed any visas. So when you calculate number of visas used, you subtract the remaining inventory from previous year's inventory and the receipts for the year.

I have two apples, I get four apples from you and next day I have three apples. Then how many did I eat? 2+4 -3 = 3.

[kd2008]

Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

[qesehmk]

I do not think every one necessarily thinks that date movement is NOT because of DD. (in other words i think there are people who think that date movement is because of DD). I of course believe that date movement is because of policy as opposed to immediate necessity let alone DD. I do believe that there is some DD but not enough.

Just to be sure we understand each other ... My definition of DD would be people who have an approved labor and had to leave the 485 process due to economic conditions. The reduction in labor due to economic conditions is not destruction. The reason i wouldn't take the latter in account is because throughout last decade ... yearly labor approvals vary for a variety of reasons. There is some cyclicality to that already. DD is a factor on top of that cyclicality. So from that perspective 2K per month demand as against 2.2-2.6K overall labor demand for corresponding months doesn't indicate a lot of demand destruction. Mind you 2K per month receipts do not include people who are simply late in filing and also exclude people who chose to file CP.

I understand that in the end we are interested in where we will end and why. My gut feel remains the same. Q1 2008 and the SOFAD should be very similar to last year. The reason being ... fundamentally nothing has changed. We have no reason to believe the demand is going to change from lst year to this. Just my perspective... don't meant to criticize .

Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

[Spectator]

Last years I-485 numbers was 78,302 at average of 6526. Plus, do we need to account for "lesser I-485" this year from ROW due to PERM delays? This would also mean higher IC proportion in the numbers for Oct-Dec this year...

kkruna,

I think that is a good point and thanks for raising it.

My view is that if an EB2-non IC was able to submit an I-485 in Q1, then probably they obtained the PWD before the problems, given the time taken for Recruitment and PERM. I could be wrong.

It could well be a factor to consider in later months - I don't know how it is going to be quantified.

[immi2910]

Because these cases are still in the inventory and have not consumed any visas. So when you calculate number of visas used, you subtract the remaining inventory from previous year's inventory and the receipts for the year.

I have two apples, I get four apples from you and next day I have three apples. Then how many did I eat? 2+4 -3 = 3.

Thanks I understand it now.

[kd2008]

CM on the US nonimmigrants blog calculates his OR as 0.65 (which is still higher than the current observation of 0.42), and the revised end date is almost the end of 2008. I think Gurus at the beginning of the year were advocating Q1 2008 as the end date, but it must be revised given the date movement and the latest inventory data. I don't think the DOS will move the dates by "more than 2 years" and stick the EAD/AP renewal bill for thousands of people to the USCIS. Q1/2008 corresponded to an OR of about 0.9...but current data suggests OR is far less.

USCIS is already jacking up processing times for EB1 and EB2-ROW. They will continue to delay other categories to make way for EB2-IC...at least until April 2010 is cleared, because they have set the high watermark here. SOFAD will be more than last year...35K (as per Teddy) or even 40K. Also, many cases are going to end up in RFEs...think of RFEs as temporary demand destruction. Perhaps the dates will stall, but at least they won't retrogress if there are RFEs, and that's why I believe even many people from 2009 will receive GCs this year, and the dates may retrogress to the end of 2008 if at all.

I hope SOFAD is that high. But it may probably be what it was last year. May be a 2K or 3K more if at all that much and we are lucky.

[suninphx]

I do not think every one necessarily thinks that date movement is NOT because of DD. (in other words i think there are people who think that date movement is because of DD). I of course believe that date movement is because of policy as opposed to immediate necessity let alone DD. I do believe that there is some DD but not enough.

Just to be sure we understand each other ... My definition of DD would be people who have an approved labor and had to leave the 485 process due to economic conditions. The reduction in labor due to economic conditions is not destruction. The reason i wouldn't take the latter in account is because throughout last decade ... yearly labor approvals vary for a variety of reasons. There is some cyclicality to that already. DD is a factor on top of that cyclicality. So from that perspective 2K per month demand as against 2.2-2.6K overall labor demand for corresponding months doesn't indicate a lot of demand destruction. Mind you 2K per month receipts do not include people who are simply late in filing and also exclude people who chose to file CP.

I understand that in the end we are interested in where we will end and why. My gut feel remains the same. Q1 2008 and the SOFAD should be very similar to last year. The reason being ... fundamentally nothing has changed. We have no reason to believe the demand is going to change from lst year to this. Just my perspective... don't meant to criticize .

Q, thanks for your thoughts.

If I remember correctly, we started with demand of 2500+/month when discussion started initially. Then this DD funda came in and then demand was revised down to 2200/month + porting ...still making it around 2500/month. Now even if the data we have is not sufficient and there is large scope for error in calculations , there is high chance that 'actual demand' may be less than 2000/month. So whether its 1600/month or 1800/month..that would be any one's guess(And I would think it will be ven lesser for 2009). And this includes porting numbers. So that would be clear cut reduction of about 25%. For me its sizable reduction.
My OR assumption is around 0.68 and that will take us in last quarter of CY2008 by end of FY2012. (Ofcourse if dates stay current then few Feb/Mar filers can get GCs affecting this date based on how many of them get lucky).

[kd2008]

Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

Based on the above analysis:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[Houston_boy]

Hi Gurus

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).

My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
Please reply

Best regs
Houston_Boy

[immi2910]

Based on the above analysis:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

Where did you get Visas used up for EB1,2(non-IC),4 & 5?

[Kanmani]

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).
You can apply I-485 even if the H1b extension is pending. Your RFE documents must reach USCIS on or before the date noted in the notice.
My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?
Yes
Does the company run payroll in that status ?
No, they cannot run the payroll between the end date of the current H1b and EAD receipt date

[kd2008]

Where did you get Visas used up for EB1,2(non-IC),4 & 5?

my post starts with based on above analysis. Please read that. I am repeating it below. It is an estimation and not data.

Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

From the above post. Basically, about 6.5K Eb2IC were approved out of the 8.5K that were pre-adjudicated with PDs between Apr 15 and July 15, 2007 based on Jan 2012 I-485 inventory, it appears. Not an exact number.

[Houston_boy]

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
No, they cannot run the payroll between the end date of the current H1b and EAD receipt date

Hi Kanmani

Thanks for the reply. My actual H1B ended on Feb 02, 2012, is that is the end date of current H1B or the denail (in case) date of H1B lets say May 2012 ?

regs

[Kanmani]

Hi Kanmani

Thanks for the reply. My actual H1B ended on Feb 02, 2012, is that is the end date of current H1B or the denail (in case) date of H1B lets say May 2012 ?

regs

Whenever your extension is pending with USCIS, you are allowed to continue in the job even after the current H1b is ended. In case if the extension petition is denied, then the beneficiary is out of status from the end date of the H1b.

[qesehmk]

The chances that the RFE will result in denial of extension, are minimal IMHO.
However should that become the case, then assuming your have filed 485 will allow you to continue to stay in the country. But AOS by itself doesnt allow you to work unless you have an EAD. Same thing applies to AC21. AOS by itself allows AC21 but AOS by itself never substitutes to EAD (i.e. work authorization).

Hi Gurus

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).

My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
Please reply

Best regs
Houston_Boy

[suninphx]

Whenever your extension is pending with USCIS, you are allowed to continue in the job even after the current H1b is ended. In case if the extension petition is denied, then the beneficiary is out of status from the end date of the H1b.

Allowed to work till 240 days (after notice date or rceipt date not sure )

[qesehmk]

SPHX - based on USCIS data, I calculated EB2IC in oct-nov-dec to be at approx 2K per month of 2007 - pls see my previous post. For that 2K to be less means EB1 and EB2ROW will have to be more ie more than 7K i.e. more than last year's rate per month. Regardless of state of economy EB2IC / EB2ROW ratio should remain constant and as such I think it is highly unlikley that EB2ROW will be more and EB2IC will be less at the same time (compared to the prior yer values).

However I do concede the point that DD could be upto 25%. That's possible. But asI said thats not high enough to cause the date movements which IMHO is completely policy driven (again!).

As per CM's prediction - I generally do not follow his blog. However I do read it sometimes whenver somebody puts a line or two recommending that we read something there. I have good regard for him/her. However on EB2IC reaching 2008Q4 during USCIS Fiscal 2012 I have to strongly disagree. I am 100% confident that's not going to happen.

Sorry ... don't mean to ruin somebody's hopes. But neither I want to give false hopes to people.

Q, thanks for your thoughts.

If I remember correctly, we started with demand of 2500+/month when discussion started initially. Then this DD funda came in and then demand was revised down to 2200/month + porting ...still making it around 2500/month. Now even if the data we have is not sufficient and there is large scope for error in calculations , there is high chance that 'actual demand' may be less than 2000/month. So whether its 1600/month or 1800/month..that would be any one's guess(And I would think it will be ven lesser for 2009). And this includes porting numbers. So that would be clear cut reduction of about 25%. For me its sizable reduction.
My OR assumption is around 0.68 and that will take us in last quarter of CY2008 by end of FY2012. (Ofcourse if dates stay current then few Feb/Mar filers can get GCs affecting this date based on how many of them get lucky).

CM on the US nonimmigrants blog calculates his OR as 0.65 (which is still higher than the current observation of 0.42), and the revised end date is almost the end of 2008. I think Gurus at the beginning of the year were advocating Q1 2008 as the end date, but it must be revised given the date movement and the latest inventory data. I don't think the DOS will move the dates by "more than 2 years" and stick the EAD/AP renewal bill for thousands of people to the USCIS. Q1/2008 corresponded to an OR of about 0.9...but current data suggests OR is far less.

USCIS is already jacking up processing times for EB1 and EB2-ROW. They will continue to delay other categories to make way for EB2-IC...at least until April 2010 is cleared, because they have set the high watermark here. SOFAD will be more than last year...35K (as per Teddy) or even 40K. Also, many cases are going to end up in RFEs...think of RFEs as temporary demand destruction. Perhaps the dates will stall, but at least they won't retrogress if there are RFEs, and that's why I believe even many people from 2009 will receive GCs this year, and the dates may retrogress to the end of 2008 if at all.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends just did a simple query on Trackitt for EB2 ROW + Primary + Approved
Oct 2010 - Feb 2011 - 184
Oct 2011 - Feb 2012 - 170
This means ROW has almost caught up considering we still have days in Feb, ROW was lagging back big time initially the exact same thing had happened last year.
Now if CO's statement of flat utilization of 9% per month is indeed true then in 5 months we have already seen 18K SOFAD at this rate we should see SOFAD in excess of 35K. For this to be true it appears that there is actually a larger sample of people on Trackitt now than in the past. If the pace of approvals is that high then reaching 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 is a possibility. 18K in 5 months can easily be extrapolated to 36K in 12 months. I don’t believe that demand destruction could really be worse than a corresponding OR of 0.75 which would make it 1650 a month EB2 I/C this is my personal belief however I respect everyone’s opinion.
As of now even Dec cases are being approved quite consistently so surely even in the worst case scenario everyone till 15th Mar 2008 should get approved. I think that the approval volumes will be high in Q3 as well but will subside in Q4 where the allocation is less. Next VB will be very interesting to see the direction. Most important thing is how sound is the basis for the current approvals assuming its in the 9% per month boundary.
Here is how I came up with the 18K figure. Pre Oct Average of Inventory and Demand data is 8.5K + 14K(Does not have CP) = 12K. There have been atleast 6K I/C approvals since then.