EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[just_curious]

Silently watching the thread and quite happy for a spurt of approvals. December filers are on their way and before the end of this FY, a significant portion of "no-issues" Jan and Feb filers will be greened.

I am in India right now. We did not file, but we may, towards the end of this year. I have nothing to add really. The flood gates are open. the NVD receipt information is out there. If I were to venture a guess, EB2-I will keep marching forward and become current in FY 2013 at this rate.

Maybe some day, we will come back and understand the mystery by analyzing the post data published by the USCIS. Why was there such a large demand cliff post July 2007? It seems a) lack of EADs, b) recession, c) seriously inflated PERM numbers due to multiple PERM factor, and d) significantly more SOFAD than anticipated all contributed to this unbelievable movement.

Congratulations to all who are getting greened and good luck to those who are waiting. Enjoy your freedom while I enjoy wada pav and pav bhaji

Glad to know that you are having a good time in India.

Most of the information you got from your lawyer were very very close to the current trend. Good luck to you and your family!!!

[bieber]

Congrats Sandeep

[srd4gc]

Hi All, we have just received sms for 485 approvals. Status online: Card/Document Production. On February 22, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

Thanks everyone for all your support. This is an amazing blog and special thanks to Q for starting such a great hangout place. Good luck to all who are waiting for approvals and to all who are waiting to become current!

[CleanSock]

Hi all,
I am new to this forum. Came to know about it yesterday only and have been hooked to it ever since Thank you all for making this blog so good

[sk.aggarwal]

I have been on this thread for last couple of days and I must say this is one of the best forums out there. Very experienced knowledgeable folks eager to help and advice. Just want to say thank you ... my PD is 06/28 ... hopping to be current soon

[maggie]

Hi All, we have just received sms for 485 approvals. Status online: Card/Document Production. On February 22, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

Thanks everyone for all your support. This is an amazing blog and special thanks to Q for starting such a great hangout place. Good luck to all who are waiting for approvals and to all who are waiting to become current!

Congratulations srd4gd!!! Enjoy.

[nishant2200]

Thanks a lot guys once again. I am really humbled.

sandeep, srd4gc, congratulations. it's a strange feeling!

[kolugc]

I am heading to India on Apr 13th for 3 weeks and my PD is 2008 June 9th. From the calculations we have, do you think I might get my 485 approved when I am in India. With Mar 2008 getting approved now, I am not sure myself to take up this trip or not. Never thought in my life that I would be begging to delay my GC approval. I am sure its difficult to give a clear cut dates or answer, just wanted to know your gut feeling. I was assuming that I might get my 485 approved only by Jul-Sep 2012 or so.

Thanks Gurus once again for all the help and clarifications I had got from here so far. And most of my plans have been moved around after certain advice I had from here and it had helped me immensely.

[delguy]

If one has I-140 approved, could the person go back to India and start CP once the date is current? or one has to specify CP at the time of I-140 application?

[narendarrao]

As far as i know,You can change this using I-824 Form.

[kd2008]

Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.

On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.

We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.

Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.

Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.

[cricfan]

Congratulations Nishant !!

[gkjppp]

QUICK QUESTION

Guru's, my wife worked on L2 EAD twice earlier, while filing 765 EAD, there are couple of columns i need to fill 1. Date(s) ---------- 2.Results :Granted twice L2 EAD( also attaching copies of EAD's).
under 11. i opted for yes. i am not sure what should fill in the Date(s) column.

please advise.

[CleanSock]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[vizcard]

Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.

On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.

We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.

Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.

Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.

Are you suggesting that folks through April 2010 will get GCs this year (assuming no RFEs and stuff) ?

[nishant2200]

Thanks for your wishes again everyone I went through all the messages.

The NVC fee for May 2011 is mind boggling, and it seems to me that CO is preparing for worst case scenario of max visa usage via CP this FY, in case USCIS does not utilize the visa goals. And if USCIS does utilize the visa goals, CO may advance in next FY to this date and make inventory/follow same monthly SO and give approvals. Either way if the news is true, then in around a year, dates should reach May 2011 most probably.

This is mind bogglingly amazing!

[Ra.One]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

That is just bizzzzaarrree!!!

[feedmyback]

While someone from May 2011 receiving NVC receipt is really encouraging news..... the real mystery here is that person never opted for CP and he was an AOS candidate. God knows what is going on!!!

That is just bizzzzaarrree!!!

[idiotic]

Which address does NVC receipts go to? (Address in US or Address in home country)?

[Spectator]

Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.

On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.

We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.

Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.

Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.

kd,

I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

An alternative view at least.

[nishant2200]

Spec, further if you can comment on any effect of below on situation:

http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html

Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.

kd,

I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

An alternative view at least.

[mesan123]

But he did state the reciept is valid and not junk, as he called USCIS number and confirmed it.....

While someone from May 2011 receiving NVC receipt is really encouraging news..... the real mystery here is that person never opted for CP and he was an AOS candidate. God knows what is going on!!!

[Spectator]

Spec, further if you can comment on any effect of below on situation:

http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html

Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.

nishant,

It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.

The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.

Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.

I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.

Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.

Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.

Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. That is probably a bit unfair.

If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.

[mesan123]

Spec...can you shed some light on the NVC reciept part....because before i assume any person who got there NVC reciepts were current with in one year from the time they paid fees....if the data is high, and SOFAD is going to be less...why are they sending NVC reciepts for so far date(may 2011).

nishant,

It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.

The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.

Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.

I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.

Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.

Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.

Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. That is probably a bit unfair.

If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Spec. I can agree with what your understanding is. I just wanted to listen to your commentary about this document and correlation hence to your notes.

nishant,

It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.

The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.

Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.

I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.

Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.

Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.

Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. That is probably a bit unfair.

If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.