EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

vizcard you need to elaborate the question more. Provide some context to help better understand.

I posed this question a couple of pages back but didn't get a response. Hoping I'll get one this time around.

[vgraj1]

Based on rapid pace of approvals which we are currently seeing by USCIS, if that pace continues, which I feel it will, I feel that dates will stall in April Visa Bulletin. At the most they may move by <= 4 months, same as the March Visa Bulletin. This is my current prediction for April VB.

Of course anything is possible, nothing is set in stone with USCIS, DOS.

Hi Nishant2200, Based on the current trends in trackitt and other observations, can we theorize that the average wait time for EB2IC to be eligible to file an I-485 will now be 2 years from his Priority Date, e.g. an EB2I with PD in April 2011 will be able to file his I-485 in April 2013 when his PD becomes current.

[nathang]

Thanks Q and imdeng. I'll wait for the receipt notices to see the category. Appreciate your response.

[imdeng]

I will go with Worker. That is what you are doing in the country - you are not a visitor or a student and you are not a PR yet.

I posed this question a couple of pages back but didn't get a response. Hoping I'll get one this time around.

[imdeng]

People with PD in early months of 2010 have seen a PD-to-485 wait time of 2 years. However, this is the very best case here - any more inventory buildup is unlikely and once we close shop on FY12, it may take two years to consume this inventory - so people with PD in latter half of 2010 may not be able to file 485 until FY2015 - so they may again have a wait time of 4 years.

There are two factors: how much inventory the current PD movement has raised and second, what is the spillover going forward. Intuitively, it does seem like we are better off than the situation of folks with PD in late 2007 and I would expect the wait the average about 3 years, but it may all mean nothing if demand destruction proves to be a mirage and improving economy cuts into spillovers.

Hi Nishant2200, Based on the current trends in trackitt and other observations, can we theorize that the average wait time for EB2IC to be eligible to file an I-485 will now be 2 years from his Priority Date, e.g. an EB2I with PD in April 2011 will be able to file his I-485 in April 2013 when his PD becomes current.

[Spectator]

My two weekly update on EB2-I Primary applications added to Trackitt since October 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 (+12 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 (+56 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 (+100 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 (+144 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 --------------------------------- 199 (+199 cases)

Here are the approvals from those applications.

Approvals by PD Month for FY2012 VB

PD -------------------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC -- % Approved
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 9 ----- 4 ----- 5 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 30.00%
April 15-30 2007 --------- 11 ----- 3 ----- 8 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 68.75%
May 2007 ----------------- 16 ----- 2 ---- 14 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 42.11%
June 2007 ---------------- 31 ----- 8 ---- 23 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 46.27%
July 2007 ---------------- 21 ----- 4 ---- 17 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 32.31%
August 2007 -------------- 24 ---- 14 ---- 10 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 25.00%
September 2007 ----------- 23 ---- 14 ----- 9 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 19.66%
October 2007 ------------- 37 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 1 ----- 0 ------ 30.33%
November 2007 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 1.16%
December 2007 ------------- 3 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 3.33%
January 2008 -------------- 3 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 2.73%
February 2008 ------------- 4 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 4.12%
March 2008 ---------------- 4 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 5.06%
April 2008 ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 0.00%
May 2008 ------------------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 0.00%
June 2008 ----------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 0.00%

Post Apr 15 PD Appr. ---- 178 ---- 74 --- 103 ----- 1 ----- 0 ------ 10.74%
Post July PD Approvals --- 99 ---- 57 ---- 41 ----- 1 ----- 0 ------- 6.94%
All Approvals ----------- 187 ---- 78 --- 108 ----- 1 ----- 0 ------ 11.09%


The difference represents applications submitted and approved for cases that were Current in FY2011.

[imdeng]

Spec - from your last post on the topic, you had an "% Approval" metric for each VB which was very interesting. Is it possible to include that. I think the best way would be to include a column for monthly applications in the second table and calculate a "% Approval" column.

PS> I had clearly underestimated how many applicants file "late" i.e not in the first 10-15 days of becoming current. I recall you mentioning that it takes like 3-4 months for the demand to fully come in and I thought that was too long - but the data does support your point of view.

My two weekly update on EB2-I Primary applications added to Trackitt since October 2011.

[goforgreen]

I want to ask a question thats troubling me, my PD is Dec 2007 but I could apply 485 only in Jan 2012. Is there a chance that when jan filers cases are taken up in April (consensus here says it will be April) there might be retrogession going back in 2007 or visas being unavailable? I know there is QSP and then monthly allocation so there is less chance of visas being used up by April, but cannot help but worry about it. Can folks give your thoughts on this.

[imdeng]

My expectation for retrogression (when it happens) is to start at 15-Mar-2008 and then the PD to move forward a month or so every VB in case there are additional visa numbers available. So in my estimation, you should be fine. You should get your GC this FY.

I want to ask a question thats troubling me, my PD is Dec 2007 but I could apply 485 only in Jan 2012. Is there a chance that when jan filers cases are taken up in April (consensus here says it will be April) there might be retrogession going back in 2007 or visas being unavailable? I know there is QSP and then monthly allocation so there is less chance of visas being used up by April, but cannot help but worry about it. Can folks give your thoughts on this.

[srimurthy]

Some thoughts and suggestions required.
My spouse on is on H4 and we found a sponsor for H1 last year but they never filed the H1 papers with USCIS I guess until Dec'11. I am still not sure if they filed since I have not received the receipt number to track even after multiple requests and visits. Meanwhile I came to know that a couple of people for whom the company filed H1's the application was rejects as the checks bounced and indicating that insufficient funds were available in the account.
My assumption is our case may be on the same track, and in this case does it mean the applicat who is on H4 is still in valid status or not. I did go for a H1 and H4 extension in Oct'11 and got those approved based on my approved I-140. Also my PD is Sep-30-10 and was expecting if the dates moved we could file for EAD and AP.

Any thoughts on the status of H4 and clarity would be helpful.

[imdeng]

AFAIK a rejection of a petition for H1 does not invalidate her current H4 status since your H1 is in good standing.

Some thoughts and suggestions required.
My spouse on is on H4 and we found a sponsor for H1 last year but they never filed the H1 papers with USCIS I guess until Dec'11. I am still not sure if they filed since I have not received the receipt number to track even after multiple requests and visits. Meanwhile I came to know that a couple of people for whom the company filed H1's the application was rejects as the checks bounced and indicating that insufficient funds were available in the account.
My assumption is our case may be on the same track, and in this case does it mean the applicat who is on H4 is still in valid status or not. I did go for a H1 and H4 extension in Oct'11 and got those approved based on my approved I-140. Also my PD is Sep-30-10 and was expecting if the dates moved we could file for EAD and AP.

Any thoughts on the status of H4 and clarity would be helpful.

[tatikonda]

Thank you Kanmani and Nishanth.

tatikonda

I go with nishant's opinion here, dates might move in the next bulletin . With respect to Ron's article, with all the informations he is gathering from AILA , he should comeup with more precise predictions instead he is using the same grinder as we are using here.

[vizcard]

vizcard you need to elaborate the question more. Provide some context to help better understand.

I will go with Worker. That is what you are doing in the country - you are not a visitor or a student and you are not a PR yet.

A little more context. My wife is on H1 right now that expires in early May. My H1 is valid till end-Nov. we applied in jan (im the primary) so we should get our EAD by April-end. We are planning on a holiday to SE Asia in the summer and the visa forms for those countries ask for "status in the US".

Imdeng points out that we should put "Worker" and it makes sense.

[GCKnowHow]

Until another petition (change in status) is approved your are good with H4. If her H1 is approved then she is not in H4 anymore. You may want to make sure that her H1 was not approved.

Some thoughts and suggestions required.
My spouse on is on H4 and we found a sponsor for H1 last year but they never filed the H1 papers with USCIS I guess until Dec'11. I am still not sure if they filed since I have not received the receipt number to track even after multiple requests and visits. Meanwhile I came to know that a couple of people for whom the company filed H1's the application was rejects as the checks bounced and indicating that insufficient funds were available in the account.
My assumption is our case may be on the same track, and in this case does it mean the applicat who is on H4 is still in valid status or not. I did go for a H1 and H4 extension in Oct'11 and got those approved based on my approved I-140. Also my PD is Sep-30-10 and was expecting if the dates moved we could file for EAD and AP.

Any thoughts on the status of H4 and clarity would be helpful.

[vgraj1]

My two weekly update on EB2-I Primary applications added to Trackitt since October 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 (+12 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 (+56 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 (+100 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 (+144 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 --------------------------------- 199 (+199 cases)

Here are the approvals from those applications.


PD -------------------- Total --- NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC
April 15 2007 - ----------- 7 ----- 1 ----- 6 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2007 ----------------- 16 ----- 2 ---- 14 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2007 ---------------- 30 ----- 8 ---- 22 ----- 0 ----- 0
July 2007 ---------------- 20 ----- 3 ---- 17 ----- 0 ----- 0
August 2007 -------------- 24 ---- 14 ---- 10 ----- 0 ----- 0
September 2007 ----------- 23 ---- 14 ----- 9 ----- 0 ----- 0
October 2007 ------------- 37 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 1 ----- 0
November 2007 ------------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
December 2007 ------------- 3 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
January 2008 -------------- 3 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0
February 2008 ------------- 4 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 0
March 2008 ---------------- 4 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 0 ----- 0
April 2008 ---------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
May 2008 ------------------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0
June 2008 ----------------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0

Post Apr 15 PD Appr. ---- 172 ---- 71 --- 100 ----- 1 ----- 0
Post July PD Approvals --- 99 ---- 57 ---- 41 ----- 1 ----- 0
All Approvals ----------- 181 ---- 75 --- 105 ----- 1 ----- 0


The difference represents applications submitted and approved for cases that were Current in FY2011.

Hi Spec: Thanks for the great work being done by you. I was wondering if it is possible to get some realistic estimates for FY 2012:

1. Out of total visa quota of 85K for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5, how much will be used up by EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 in FY2012, let us call this 'x'
2. The left over, i.e. 85K-x will be for EB2IC in FY2012
3. This left over, i.e. 85-x will cater upto what PD for EB2IC in FY2012

[imdeng]

How did you get 85K? 140K is annual limit, remove 40K for EB3, you have 100K.

The questions you are asking are the eternal questions of this forum. We have very little underlying data to say anything about this. The best one can say (not including Spec, his insights know no bound; and Teddy, the all knowing one) based on trackitt/PERM data is that EB1 is up from last year and EB2ROW is down - so net net we may land in the same spot as last year as far as total SOFAD is concerned. However, since EB2C density is lower in post 07/07 world, EB2I may get a larger share of that SOFAD. Given all this, we might end FY2012 somewhere between 15-Mar-2008 to 01-Jan-2009 - which will make for a pretty good year overall.

Hi Spec: Thanks for the great work being done by you. I was wondering if it is possible to get some realistic estimates for FY 2012:

1. Out of total visa quota of 85K for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5, how much will be used up by EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 in FY2012, let us call this 'x'
2. The left over, i.e. 85K-x will be for EB2IC in FY2012
3. This left over, i.e. 85-x will cater upto what PD for EB2IC in FY2012

[Spectator]

Spec - from your last post on the topic, you had an "% Approval" metric for each VB which was very interesting. Is it possible to include that. I think the best way would be to include a column for monthly applications in the second table and calculate a "% Approval" column.

PS> I had clearly underestimated how many applicants file "late" i.e not in the first 10-15 days of becoming current. I recall you mentioning that it takes like 3-4 months for the demand to fully come in and I thought that was too long - but the data does support your point of view.

imdeng,

I have updated my original post.

Is that what you were looking for?

PS There is a big difference as to when people actually file with USCIS and when they add their case to Trackitt - it is an important distinction.

[imdeng]

That is exactly what I was looking for - Thanks Spec.

I would imagine that the % Approval metric will probably never quite reach close to 100% what with denials and applicants not updating their account post-approval. I guess once that metric reaches something like 65%-70%, we can consider that month to be effectively "cleared". What do you think?

imdeng,

I have updated my original post.

Is that what you were looking for?

PS There is a big difference as to when people actually file with USCIS and when they add their case to Trackitt - it is an important distinction.

[srimurthy]

Thanks imdeng, GC.
I was more concerned with being in Status that the H1 part. If I get a chance to file for EAD, I would send an email to the company (h4 to h1 sponsor) to withdraw the app. I have been behind them now for more than 8 months and they have no professionalism.

Until another petition (change in status) is approved your are good with H4. If her H1 is approved then she is not in H4 anymore. You may want to make sure that her H1 was not approved.

[mesan123]

Hi....this is what Ron eaxplained Regarding New 485 approvals and trackit cases....

"Trackitt is a great site and provides a lot of useful information. I have always doubted the accuracy of the processing times shown there, however. Lawyers share information and the processing time data that I have seen in my own office, as well as the information I receive from colleagues is never as optimistic as the Trackitt data. This could be because the sample size on Trackitt is small (relatively speaking) or because people are entering false information. I know that in the past, I have seen emails encouraging folks to enter falsely optimistic information in the results would influence the USCIS to move faster. Those could have been isolated instances, but I've learned never to underestimate the craziness that some applicants will resort to in order to move their cases along.

We file a large enough volume of cases to get a pretty good idea of processing times. My colleagues also file a significant number of cases. These are all well prepared, well documented I-485s that generally do not receive RFEs. The numbers that I posted reflect our experience in this office and the data that I get from other offices."

[essenel]

imdeng,

I have updated my original post.

Is that what you were looking for?

PS There is a big difference as to when people actually file with USCIS and when they add their case to Trackitt - it is an important distinction.

Spec, thank you. Out of curiosity, is there any estimate for the number of people who add their cases, but forget to update them when they get approved?

[codesmith]

Hi....this is what Ron eaxplained Regarding New 485 approvals and trackit cases....
Those could have been isolated instances, but I've learned never to underestimate the craziness that some applicants will resort to in order to move their cases along.
....."

Thanks Mesan.
Interesting post, It's hard to believe that when people think- giving false information would make USCIS move faster ..
Well, I agree with the "craziness" Ron mentioned; a very typical example is finger printing. You can see almost 50% of the applicants on trackitt asking if one can do FP before scheduled date... God knows why so many people can not make it on scheduled date.

[Kanmani]

Hi....this is what Ron eaxplained Regarding New 485 approvals and trackit cases....

"Trackitt is a great site and provides a lot of useful information. I have always doubted the accuracy of the processing times shown there, however. Lawyers share information and the processing time data that I have seen in my own office, as well as the information I receive from colleagues is never as optimistic as the Trackitt data. This could be because the sample size on Trackitt is small (relatively speaking) or because people are entering false information. I know that in the past, I have seen emails encouraging folks to enter falsely optimistic information in the results would influence the USCIS to move faster. Those could have been isolated instances, but I've learned never to underestimate the craziness that some applicants will resort to in order to move their cases along.

We file a large enough volume of cases to get a pretty good idea of processing times. My colleagues also file a significant number of cases. These are all well prepared, well documented I-485s that generally do not receive RFEs. The numbers that I posted reflect our experience in this office and the data that I get from other offices."

mesan sis, do you know what numbers he has posted in contradiction to trackitt?

[sp2008]

Rons latest blog on Cut off date movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...off-dates.html

don't think he said any thing we don't know already.

[gc_usa]

Two things I learned from this GC process. Doc who hates online / web ( One of doc I went to ask for Medical cost for Immi and it was small practice and spoke to him directly , of course Desi...) stuff must have bad review and mal practice information on web.

And lawyer who is all across internet may be don't have business to do and know less in actual INS text. Not advertising here but law firm which I worked with for my app is very small and no website , but lawyer made sure each and every detail about BC and other docs. He was so picky about BC that I had to spend much time on preparing docs. He told me that many cases get RFE on BC which he wanted to prevent. There are few lawyers who post information left and right and they know lot about what is going on web so may be they have nothing to do