EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

Gurus: IF QSP is applied, do u expect the Nov filers to be cleared in the coming month or so...would the CO then retrogress to Nov1st? If QSP is not applied, is it correct to say that the dates have to be retrogressed to a much earlier date by April?

president99,

As Spec pointed above, the rate of approvals for EB2IC in Q2 can't be expected similar to Q1.

QSP mostly depends on how well EB1&EB2ROW-M-P going to do in each quarter.

For Oct EB2 I filers. very few approvals after the first week of January. Now we are seeing RFEs for some of the filers but not many approvals. I think this implies, they are pre-adjudicating the remaining applications pending availability of Visa numbers. The Jan first week approvals were likely coming from the release of the second quarter quota (now exhausted). If this is true we may not see many more approvals till the end of March.
As they accrue more pre-adjudicated applications, the chances of retrogression increases. Hopefully another month of forward movement, but then retrogression seems imminent.

chikitsak,

That could very well be a possibility. In this case we should see significantly higher numbers in next Demand Data for EB2IC, published by DOS.

[Spectator]

Hi Spectator,

Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.

vgraj1,

Yes, for Categories / Countries that are always Current, they would have already filed their I-485s and certainly for the earlier years, the I-140 has probably been approved as well. But, the I-485 is almost certainly approved as well by now and has been reflected in the approvals reported for FY2008, FY2009 etc by DOS. None of those cases would reflect in the latest USCIS Inventory. In fact, many of the older cases still in the Inventory may have problems which have delayed them being approved by now, or there may be other, unknown, reasons.

But for more recent cases (maybe 6-9 months), filed concurrently, many will not have had the underlying I-140 approved and any associated I-485s will not show in the USCIS Inventory.

It is a difficult nut to crack and there have been many discussions on the forum about how to better determine EB1 numbers in particular. If data from many different sources all points the same way, then we have greater confidence in it.

For instance, a rise in EB1 numbers for FY2012 was predicted based on various USCIS reports and Veni's work on deriving numbers from the USCIS Dashboard data.

In general, approvals on Trackitt YoY give a very good idea of the trend of what is happening.

[veni001]

vgraj1,

.........................................
.........................................

It is a difficult nut to crack and there have been many discussions on the forum about how to better determine EB1 numbers in particular. If data from many different sources all points the same way, then we have greater confidence in it.

For instance, a rise in EB1 numbers for FY2012 was predicted based on various USCIS reports and Veni's work on deriving numbers from the USCIS Dashboard data.

In general, approvals on Trackitt YoY give a very good idea of the trend of what is happening.

Hi Spectator,

Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.

vgraj1,

I agree with Spec, it is a difficult nut to crack.

You can check our monthly PERM-to-140 tracker to get a feel for EB1-140 receipts, which shows significant increase in demand.

[Nishant_imt]

People ....

Quick question.... My company is filing for second labor. Earlier PERM and I-140 were cleared last year but they were for a specific job location and i have already moved out of that location. Now, I was reading on some websites that a lot of people get audit if the same company is filing for PERM again. In my case, the distinction is fairly clear that it was filed earlier for city A and now it is filed for all states in the US. But i don't know if the USCIS folks will be able to figure that out. Is it wise to withdraw the previous PERM and I-140 before filing a new one? I am concerned because if it is denied, i will be in dire straits. In worst case scenario, I can move back to City A for the job and file I-485 from there based on first PERM and I-140, But if we withdraw, that option is gone too. I hope i am making sense here. Thanks for any advice in advance.

[gcoracle]

People ....

Quick question.... My company is filing for second labor. Earlier PERM and I-140 were cleared last year but they were for a specific job location and i have already moved out of that location. Now, I was reading on some websites that a lot of people get audit if the same company is filing for PERM again. In my case, the distinction is fairly clear that it was filed earlier for city A and now it is filed for all states in the US. But i don't know if the USCIS folks will be able to figure that out. Is it wise to withdraw the previous PERM and I-140 before filing a new one? I am concerned because if it is denied, i will be in dire straits. In worst case scenario, I can move back to City A for the job and file I-485 from there based on first PERM and I-140, But if we withdraw, that option is gone too. I hope i am making sense here. Thanks for any advice in advance.

Here is what I did. As soon as my dates got current. My attorney suggested that I move to the state where my PERM was filed. I work for a fortune 10 company and have offices in every state, so I moved and my H1B/LCA was also amended. Later I485 was filed. Now the crazy part is, my wife still works in a different state and I am commuting every weekend (7hrs drive one-way). Its tough with a 3 year old in the house and I miss my family everyday but we are hoping that as soon as my wife gets her EAD, she will hopefully find a job in the state where I am working. My difficulties are one more example of the sacrifices some of us have to go through for this GC.

[imdeng]

Folks - Sorry for the off-topic post. I will remove the post and the replies to the appropriate thread in a day. I am a Feb current (PD: Aug-2009) and I have two urgent questions:

1. I am in a pickle about Birth Certificate thing. I have Affidavits from parents and I also have school records however, getting either a delayed registration BC or a Non-Availability Certificate is proving to be a hassle. I am from a corruption-rich state and my parents are quite elderly and it is proving very difficult for them to get anything from the Municipality. Is it possible at all to file for 485 without a document from Municipality?

2. I need EAD urgently since my dependent needs to shift jobs in Mar-April timeframe. Would it be advisable to file 485 asap even if the documentation is not fully complete (e.g. the BC issue above) and let it go to RFE? Would any resulting RFE affect the timeline for us to get an EAD??

Thanks for your replies. There is just a week for me to file and I am freaking out a little.

[vgraj1]

Hi veni001,

Thanks for the link. Have you made any similar statistics for EB2 and projections for FY 2012. Are we able to isolate the reason from the statistics why CO is advancing EB2 I&C rapidly in the last few bulletins? From this, are we able to extrapolate what would be the expected PD changes in the next 2 bulletins?

[suninphx]

Advancement of EB2-IC dates is not a real mystery. The pace of advancement did surprise everyone, but that the dates would advance once they pass July 2007 was well known.

- EB2-IC is a major consumer of the spillover visas from the other categories. Since the US economy still hasn't picked up after the real estate bubble burst of 2008, the demand continues to be low, and EB2-IC continues to consume about 25K SOFAD on an average.
- After the July 2007 date was passed, there was a demand cliff (0 demand). Coupled with the fact that the USCIS is exceptionally slow in processing 485 cases, dates had to be advanced rapidly to not waste any visas. A lot of 485 cases also end up in RFEs nowadays, which are not counted in demand.
- CO is also using the same strategy as he used for FB visas - advance rapidly at the beginning of FY and then stall/retrogress appropriately. This gives them a good picture of the demand. EB2-IC demand is unknown. People have come up with many models from the PERM data, but a lot of things have happened (people lost their jobs, some went back, some are stuck in H1B 221gs, multiple PERMs due to job changes and a parallel spouse application etc) that make demand anyone's guess. The dates are *very sensitive to the demand*. If the demand is 5K short for example, that's easily 3 extra months of advance.
- The GC outlier for FY 2012 continues to be March-June 2008. However after June 2008, demand density is exceptionally low all the way until the first half of 2010, so it is not unreasonable to expect that the SOFAD of FY 2013 might be able to cover this region.

To cut the story short, a combination of many factors are responsible for rapid advancement. The demand is low, and now, it is also artificially controlled (spike in H1B rejections in India for example) that will make the future wait time of EB2-IC very less - many speculate EB2 as a whole is going to be current in the next few years. SOFAD was high due to recession. Also, people are unable to apply for 485 right away for a variety of reasons (in fact, many in 2009 will postpone because they are not yet married) and their demand will be seen in later bulletins. The landscape has changed, and hence our perceptions need to change too. EB2-IC is no longer a 5 year hell-hole...it is down to a more reasonable 2-3 years and it might become current in a few years.

Nice post!
GC in hand wait time will still be around 4-5 years for few more years IMO. More because its all based on performance of other catagories.

[vgraj1]

Hi sportsfan33,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. My PD is 04/11 (EB2 I) and I almost forgot about GC, thinking it is going to take very long time, but the rapid advancement of PD in last few bulletins has been exciting news and made me to study this more. I hope the Govt. does something to help our EB3 brothers also (HR 3012 and some other immigration changes like diversion of some of DV lottery visas to EB categories, etc.).

[TeddyKoochu]

natvyas,

There may be something of a lull at the moment.

Most easily approvable cases from the old backlog have probably been approved by now and it is still a little early for the majority of even October new filings to be ready to adjudicate, if you consider even 4 months processing time. Those seen to date had pretty short times by normal standards. About 19% of EB2-I October filers have been approved to date.

We don't know the level of visas that are going to be available for QSP this quarter, but it can't continue at the rate seen in Q1 (or at least it is very unlikely). Having essentially cleared the backlog, CO may wait a little longer to determine that, since it will affect how much he has to retrogress dates.

EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.

TRACKITT TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. The month of Jan is still in progress so the overall 2012 tally will be higher finally. All data is for primary approved cases from Oct – Jan for the respective years.
EB1 (A+B+C)
2011 - 17+21+23 = 61
2012 - 23+42+92 = 157

The number of EB1C approvals is almost at 4 times of last year. While EB1A is at the same level EB1B vases are also double now this may indicate that the impact of the Kazarian memo is now receding. Most EB1C cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt EB1C is from India so the data should not be taken at absolute face value. The trend correlates well with high I140 approvals just prior to the start of FY 2012.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 108
2012 – 158

EB2 row is still underperforming but has picked up from the 50% line; row has a tendency to pick up later in the year. Partly this may have been due to the prevailing wage stoppage.
For now it appears that the 12K SOFAD that we got from EB1 will most likely not be available this year. EB2 ROW will hopefully compensate some of the loss. Also the Oct filers / Nov filers (Very Few) approvals for EB2 I/C have slowed down they have not been all inclusive either for Oct filers, normally when numbers are available in good supply everyone gets approved.
This maybe just my theory, I believe that CO allocated the entire 5.6K India / China annual cap in Oct itself in the month of Oct QSP quantity / volume cannot be judged. The rest of the approvals which is easily 12K including porting have come by quarterly spillover. This way CO is in fact ahead of QSP at this point and a very significant portion of the SOFAD has been used.
Good luck to everyone for the next VB which might go either way. Demand destruction is a factor for the new intake however this year since the wiggle room offered by the SOFAD left is not very much it will not significantly impact the approval line. For example an OR of .8 as opposed to 1 just causes a difference of ~ 2K numbers assuming that SOFAD will be 22K and 12K is consumed so 10K is left.

[kd2008]

AILA just posted "Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand"
http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

But it is a restricted link. If anyone can get their attorneys to convey the details that would be great. Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, a quick question. Do we really assume that CO allocated the entire 5.6K in the first quarter? I think this is very highly unlikely. CO would certainly not advance the dates this rapidly if that was the case. I believe they used at most 30% as per the law, and there must be a real good explanation for the remaining numbers. Maybe they discovered some "unused numbers" from previous years, or maybe they are slowly giving us extra visas that comprehensive reform was supposed to provide in one single shot? Maybe they gave us a large chunk of spillover in Q1 itself noting the demand pattern in other categories. They have about 4 to 6 months of wiggle room to play with demand numbers, and they might slow down 140 approval rates from other categories to create an artificial boost for EB2-IC for 1 quarter.
I find it hard to believe that they used up our annual quota and yet are advancing dates.

Sports the difference of the Oct & NOV demand data was ~ 5.5 - 6K. QSP may not have been generated in Oct, this is just my own theory that CO used the entire CAP for EB2 I/C in Oct in an effort to create the 0 demand situation to justify the new intake. Last year USCIS announced in early Sep 2011 that all numbers are used up in fact this topic has been beaten to death, ever since 2007 visas have not been wasted. I believe that the actual usage and approvals and new intake are being treated as 2 separate entities as of now, so intake may still continue, however the approvals for EB2 I/C are slower than EB2 ROW and EB1 where even late Nov filers are being approved in higher numbers. CO in fact is now well prepared for all scenarios even if HR 3012 passes sometime early this year, let us hope he continues the intake.

[Kanmani]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/

[Reader]

Reader,
If H1B is approved before 140 revoked, your H1 will remain valid for the duration approved.

Veni, Thanks for your response. Is there any link for this information please? My company HR is not interested in filing H1 extension as my EAD is expected in a month and also is not agreeing that H1 will remain valid if the underlying 140 gets revoked which was the basis for the extension beyond 6 years.

[kd2008]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

[gkjppp]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/

WOW, great news guys...

[Spectator]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2012 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/

That's really saying that to date, visa approvals are bang on track.

The limit for Q1 was 27% and a further 9% for January would be 36%. By the end of February, another 9% makes the 45% mentioned.

Since documentarily qualified case from the October filers should start to appear now, followed by November, then CO doesn't really have to advance the dates at all. A further advance now can't help in achieving the 45% by the end of February.

It sounds as if he will move the dates anyway, but the end looks near.

PS I have now seen the full text and will digest it. The comments re EB1 are interesting and completely at odds with what has been seen on Trackitt. Trackitt has usually been quite reliable for EB1 and correctly showed the downturn last year.

[vizcard]

Here is what I did. As soon as my dates got current. My attorney suggested that I move to the state where my PERM was filed. I work for a fortune 10 company and have offices in every state, so I moved and my H1B/LCA was also amended. Later I485 was filed. Now the crazy part is, my wife still works in a different state and I am commuting every weekend (7hrs drive one-way). Its tough with a 3 year old in the house and I miss my family everyday but we are hoping that as soon as my wife gets her EAD, she will hopefully find a job in the state where I am working. My difficulties are one more example of the sacrifices some of us have to go through for this GC.

While I empathize with your situation, it is not unique to just GC-chasers. I know Americans who have to deal with similar situations because of the job market. They have to go to other states to work but have roots somewhere else and for various reasons cannot move their families. As an example, one of my friends got laid off her job in Florida but got a job in Seattle. Her husband runs a business in Florida (which he can't just stop) and they have a house (which they can't really sell in this market without losing a ton of money) but she needs to work to pay the mortgage.

[suninphx]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

Thanks KD!

I find comment about EB1 usage most interesting. Specifically after we had Trackitt trend calculation by T , just few posts back.

[vckomara]

I may not be able to help you directly but I will tell my experience. I am from Hyderabad and was current this months bulletin just like you. I tried talking to yourmaninIndia.com and he quoted me 35 working days for a NABC. So I took a chance and sent my family member to the main municipal office. Hyderabad is more wired electronically I guess and I was able to get my BC in 4 days. Thats a miracle without spending any money for Babus (Thanks to Anna??).

I would not recommend yourmaninindia if you are planning to apply in Feb although he is probably putting a lot of buffer in his timeline. I will go with with $400 option someone suggested if you find its reliable.

Folks - Sorry for the off-topic post. I will remove the post and the replies to the appropriate thread in a day. I am a Feb current (PD: Aug-2009) and I have two urgent questions:

1. I am in a pickle about Birth Certificate thing. I have Affidavits from parents and I also have school records however, getting either a delayed registration BC or a Non-Availability Certificate is proving to be a hassle. I am from a corruption-rich state and my parents are quite elderly and it is proving very difficult for them to get anything from the Municipality. Is it possible at all to file for 485 without a document from Municipality?

2. I need EAD urgently since my dependent needs to shift jobs in Mar-April timeframe. Would it be advisable to file 485 asap even if the documentation is not fully complete (e.g. the BC issue above) and let it go to RFE? Would any resulting RFE affect the timeline for us to get an EAD??

Thanks for your replies. There is just a week for me to file and I am freaking out a little.

[qesehmk]

sport
gut feel is not necessary in this case. As i said the Oct 2011 filings will start hitting the DOS pipeline anytime now. And there will be no need to advance dates UNLESS CO wants to advance them to build future pipeline. He however has said it clearly that hte only reason is advancing dates is because he is seeing weak demand. So if the demand grows stronger - which it will in 1 or max 2 months - what will he do.

That why I said - if we hold him true to his own words - then he must retro in 1 or 2 months MAX.

Retrogression in March is unlikely - that's just my gut feeling. The numbers have to creep up a bit more from the November/December filers to see them pulling the plug. I think they will stall (assuming they are doing QSP, which everyone agrees they are).

Here is a wild rumor for those who are interested:

"One More Month of Good News for EB-2 Indians and Chinese

Sources tell me that we're going to see one more big jump - perhaps as much as a year - in the EB-2 India and China numbers for the March Visa bulletin that comes out in early February. Then the party is going to end with stalling or retrogressing after that. You never know for sure until the actual bulletin is published, but EB-2 applicants from those two countries need to pay attention to the bulletin and be prepared to act quickly."

Source: http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...d-chinese.html

[mesan123]

This is what i found ....explanation by RON


Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.

Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

AILA just posted "Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand"
http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

But it is a restricted link. If anyone can get their attorneys to convey the details that would be great. Thanks!

[skpanda]

Damn.. i wished they moved 1 more year... i would be current if they do

neways.. 6 months move is not bad.. Good luck to folks in first half of 2010!! Be ready with all documents and file as soon as u r current!!

This is what i found ....explanation by RON


Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.

Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

[mrdeeds]

sport
gut feel is not necessary in this case. As i said the Oct 2011 filings will start hitting the DOS pipeline anytime now. And there will be no need to advance dates UNLESS CO wants to advance them to build future pipeline. He however has said it clearly that hte only reason is advancing dates is because he is seeing weak demand. So if the demand grows stronger - which it will in 1 or max 2 months - what will he do.

That why I said - if we hold him true to his own words - then he must retro in 1 or 2 months MAX.

Thanks KD for the newsbrief!

All,

The operative word used in all bulletins and this particular update today from CO is 'filed'. USCIS knows how may AOS cases are being filed and that is reported to be 50% of their estimate. Their estimate can only be based on the number of 140s they have approved. If only 50% of AOS are being filed, does that not say something about our assumptions for demand destruction? Why can't we take CO / USCIS on their word that the filings are low. I understand that there is a 4-6 month delay in the cases hitting DOS from USCIS but both CO and USCIS knows that and they must be talking. When they say that the 'filings' are low, that to me only means that the situation is more hopeful.

Now, when I say hopeful, I don't mean from a date movement standpoint for this year. They may very well have the number of cases needed to account for the spillover etc for FY2012. But with 50% demand than estimated, that means that the retrogression may be less or movement in 2013 will continue. This is not like 2007.

Thoughts?

[TeddyKoochu]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

KD Thanks for posting. Quite a few striking points.

USCIS comment that filing is 50% of what they expected is a combination of their expectation probably being way over the top and demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely not at an OR of 0.5, only way to rationalize this would be that their expectation of filings was way over the top.
EB1 usage and expectation of 12K fall down is completely at odds with Trackitt where the usage is significantly higher.
34% usage till now and 45% by Feb is very much on Track. The composition of approvals will hold the key. Let us see if we get some more Oct & Nov filer approvals.
The next bulletin will likely see another 6 months of movement this will be very good news for everyone, I believe the demand data showing lower figures will be the technicality that will be used to keep the dates advancing. All the very best to everyone.