EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qblogfan]

My Received Date is 12/27, but I already got my Fingerprint Appointment of Janaury 18th on January 10th. I did FP yesterday afternoon.

Just as what Q has said in his pervious posts: TSC is damn fast on Fingerprint, but slow on EAD/AP. NSC is damn fast on EAD/AP, but slow on Fingerprint.

My observation is that TSC can give you FP notice as fast as 10-14 days, but EAD/AP as slow as 2-3 months. NSC can give you EAD/AP as fast as 1 month, but FP notice as slow as 2 months.

Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

[RRRRRR]

Thank You , although I was expecting a delay as I know we might not be able to make it - moreover Feb 3rd is the date I did'nt want it to be on
For you did you follow up with the service center , make sure that NSC with your PD no body have got their FP notice.

Hoping to get things moving the same way and I get my GC - I am about to retire

You can definitely get it done earlier, Go to them and explain them the situation, I am sure they will let you in without any issues. Thanks

[sandeep11]

Per my experience there shouldn't be any issue. I went in a for an early walk-in and there were no questions asked. They are very accomodative. In your case you should be fine because they would understand your situation. Go ahead with no second thoughts and you should be done with your FP. Good Luck & Congratulations!!!

PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center

[qblogfan]

I heard Dallas office is not too easy to get walk in, but I think you should try it!

Per my experience there shouldn't be any issue. I went in a for an early walk-in and there were no questions asked. They are very accomodative. In your case you should be fine because they would understand your situation. Go ahead with no second thoughts and you should be done with your FP. Good Luck & Congratulations!!!

[kd2008]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

21K filing in TSC and NSC for I-485 in Nov. These are not strictly EB filings ..they include a few other categories too. YOY it has not increased much. only 2800 filings more.

[devi_pd]

Nov filings in NSC and TSC are 3.3K more than the Oct filings. So the EB2 IC Nov apps could be in this range. Lets see how the Dec numbers come out.

[nishant2200]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

21K filing in TSC and NSC for I-485 in Nov. These are not strictly EB filings ..they include a few other categories too. YOY it has not increased much. only 2800 filings more.

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"

[kolugc]

So does this mean, the demand was less in Nov? I mean then it should be further movement right? Or we can't just assume that by this numbers?

[Spectator]

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"

While it is true that NSC & TSC do not deal with FB cases, they don't just deal with EB cases either.

There is a post from way back which explains what each Service Center deals with, but I certainly remember TSC and NSC also handle Refugee and Asylee I-485 cases between them.

The new USCIS Quarterly All Form Types Performance Data report does split the data down to show EB figures. That should be published by the end of February.

In FY2011 EB I-485 receipts accounted for about 36% of EB/Ref/Asy cases. That should increase in FY2012, assuming Ref/Asy stay fairly constant.

[kd2008]

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"

Come on Nishant, I thought you would be better than this.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

TSC and NSC process all of the following:

You are filing based on:

1. A pending or approved I-360 for an International Organization Employee or Family Member

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-360 was accepted or approved.

2. An approved I-360 for a:

Special Immigrant Religious Worker
Panama Canal Company Employment
U.S. Government in Canal Zone Employment;
Special Immigrant Physician;
International Broadcasters

You must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

3. Asylum Status

4. Refugee Status

5. HRIFA Dependent

6. A pending or approved I-140

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-140 was accepted or approved.

7. An approved Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur. (Note: You cannot file Forms I-526 and I-485 concurrently. You must include a copy of the Form I-797C Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-526 was approved.)

You are filing with Form I-140.

You are filing as an Afghan or Iraqi Translator.

If you are filing Form I-485 based on an approved Form I-360 for Afghan or Iraqi Translators, you must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Action, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

Note: You may not concurrently file Forms I-360 and Form I-485 for this classification.)

[nishant2200]

While it is true that NSC & TSC do not deal with FB cases, they don't just deal with EB cases either.

There is a post from way back which explains what each Service Center deals with, but I certainly remember TSC and NSC also handle Refugee and Asylee I-485 cases between them.

The new USCIS Quarterly All Form Types Performance Data report does split the data down to show EB figures. That should be published by the end of February.

cool nice to know, and another point we noticed is last year the refugee asylee took more than 140k visas, so it's no small volume either.

[nishant2200]

kd2008, we are all just discussing here, and collectively coming to a knowledge. I have no personal stake in anything. Please be polite.

Come on Nishant, I thought you would be better than this.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

TSC and NSC process all of the following:

You are filing based on:

1. A pending or approved I-360 for an International Organization Employee or Family Member

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-360 was accepted or approved.

2. An approved I-360 for a:

Special Immigrant Religious Worker
Panama Canal Company Employment
U.S. Government in Canal Zone Employment;
Special Immigrant Physician;
International Broadcasters

You must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

3. Asylum Status

4. Refugee Status

5. HRIFA Dependent

6. A pending or approved I-140

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-140 was accepted or approved.

7. An approved Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur. (Note: You cannot file Forms I-526 and I-485 concurrently. You must include a copy of the Form I-797C Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-526 was approved.)

You are filing with Form I-140.

You are filing as an Afghan or Iraqi Translator.

If you are filing Form I-485 based on an approved Form I-360 for Afghan or Iraqi Translators, you must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Action, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

Note: You may not concurrently file Forms I-360 and Form I-485 for this classification.)

[kd2008]

cool nice to know, and another point we noticed is last year the refugee asylee took more than 140k visas, so it's no small volume either.

Just look at YOY numbers. The only thing that has changed is the new EB2IC filings. There may be changes in other all filings but the big impact would be from additional filings in this category.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I couldn't find a good explanation in the post you linked to.

I have created an explanation in the FACTS & DATA section here

Feel free to edit or add to it if you feel it doesn't adequately explain the concepts.

Spec thanks for your post, very well detailed. This gives clarity to everyone not only on the terminology but more importantly on what is OR and demand destruction.

[mrdeeds]

Just look at YOY numbers. The only thing that has changed is the new EB2IC filings. There may be changes in other all filings but the big impact would be from additional filings in this category.

So based on comments above and Spec's historical ratio mention of 36%, does this calculation make sense?

Let's just look at Nov filings. The surge in filings would have been from date movement from Jul 15 2007 to Nov 1 2007.

From http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India, the perm numbers for EB2IC are

July (assuming 50% since date is from 15th) - 600
Aug - 2100
Sep - 2294
Oct - 2630
Total - 7624

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at TSC = 9013
Apply Specs ratio = 9013 *.36 = 3244

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at NSC = 11964
Apply Specs ratio = 11964 *.36 = 4307

Total EB apps at NSC + TSC in Nov 11 is 4307 + 3244 = 7551

The number 7624 and 7551 are awfully close suggesting very less DD? Actually, that's probably not true as Spec's ratio is for all EB and not just EB2IC. Is there a way to find out how many non EB2 apps were filed or can we use the OR or some other ratio? OR is probably is not usable here as that already accounts for DD.

[tendlya]

One quick question about filing I485 for dependent spouse. My wife is on H1B currently. She had changed job couple of years back. My question is do we need to submit I797 copies of her all the jobs she has worked on until now or just the most recent one? Please feel free to move this question to relevant forum afterwards.

[suninphx]

So based on comments above and Spec's historical ratio mention of 36%, does this calculation make sense?

Let's just look at Nov filings. The surge in filings would have been from date movement from Jul 15 2007 to Nov 1 2007.

From http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India, the perm numbers for EB2IC are

July (assuming 50% since date is from 15th) - 600
Aug - 2100
Sep - 2294
Oct - 2630
Total - 7624

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at TSC = 9013
Apply Specs ratio = 9013 *.36 = 3244

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at NSC = 11964
Apply Specs ratio = 11964 *.36 = 4307

Total EB apps at NSC + TSC in Nov 11 is 4307 + 3244 = 7551

The number 7624 and 7551 are awfully close suggesting very less DD? Actually, that's probably not true as Spec's ratio is for all EB and not just EB2IC. Is there a way to find out how many non EB2 apps were filed or can we use the OR or some other ratio? OR is probably is not usable here as that already accounts for DD.

The filing numbers include ALL countries i.e. EBIC+ROW. So we need to know IC numbers to be able to comment on DD yet. (assuming all other assumption in your post are close to reality).

update: Based on what I read from Spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-IC number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.

[Spectator]

mrdeeds,

I'm not sure how far the calculation can go because of some missing information to deduce the EB2-IC component, but I did want to say it is an interesting approach.

Welcome to the forum.

[SIII140]

Urgent!

I am sorry for posting this question on this topic, but I am very close to filing my papers and would really appreciate any help on clearing my dilemma:

My priority date is current per February bulletin and I was going to file concurrently for I-140 Successor in Interest and I-485. All documenation is ready, but the lawyer says it's better if we first file for I-140 and get the receipt # and then file for I-485. Normally, I would be OK with it. But the problem is that sometimes I-140 receipt takes too long and I don't want to get in a situation where we are waiting for I-140 receipt that gets delayed for some reason and I can't file my I-485 in this small window of opportunity because I dont have I-140 receipt. What shall I do? Any suggestions?

Thanks in advance your help.

[ChampU]

One quick question about filing I485 for dependent spouse. My wife is on H1B currently. She had changed job couple of years back. My question is do we need to submit I797 copies of her all the jobs she has worked on until now or just the most recent one? Please feel free to move this question to relevant forum afterwards.

My attorney had asked us to provide copies of ALL immigration documents ((past and present)I-20s, I-797s, OPT cards) for every applicant (Primary+Dependents).

[mrdeeds]

mrdeeds,

I'm not sure how far the calculation can go because of some missing information to deduce the EB2-IC component, but I did want to say it is an interesting approach.

Welcome to the forum.

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?

update: Based on what I read spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-ic number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.

Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).

[suninphx]

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?



Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).

I think you are right.

[kd2008]

User ntemp on trackitt:

Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
I-485 Approval Date: 17 Jan 2012

Primary applicant

[GC-Utopic]

My attorney had asked us to provide copies of ALL immigration documents ((past and present)I-20s, I-797s, OPT cards) for every applicant (Primary+Dependents).

Technically, you need to send all the documentation proving your status since your last entry ( time before your latest I94 does not matter),

read about 245 (k) provision.

[suninphx]

User ntemp on trackitt:

Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
I-485 Approval Date: 17 Jan 2012

Primary applicant

wow ...super