EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

Spec reported that the recent value may be 4.5 % ..best values have been up to 7%

[whythiskolaveri]

Hi Guyz... This forum has been really helpful in providing lot of infomation on GC ...

My PD id 08/25/2008 and I sent in my Application on 11- Jan and was received by USCIS on 12th Jan...

How soon do I get my recept notice usually..?

Kolaveri

[Spectator]

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

gkjppp,

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals in the DOS Reports, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

More people initially add their case to Trackitt, but never update it with the approval. These become "dead" cases on Trackitt.

So, for applications, if 20% never update to approval, the % would become:

FY2009 - 9.54%
FY2010 - 8.40%
FY2011 - 6.72% (educated guess)

It's actually quite difficult to know the true %.

Of course, the % for different Categories and Countries vary enormously.

[TeddyKoochu]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

[suninphx]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

Yeah my understading is about 5-6% of users are on trackitt. Ofcourse with Spec's post we have much more insight about percentages.

Also the number 2500/month was revised to 2200/month(including porting if I am not wrong). And cases are still getting added to trackitt. So if actual number is between 1500-2200 then it may give some handle on DD.

[Osaka001]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

As per PERM numbers , we should have similar numbers from Apr'08-Dec'08, but so far, we could see only 176 cases on trackitt, that means, people didnt file their AoS even after 2 weeks, they have been current, may be they are little lazy after Feb VB.

[suninphx]

The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

[06DEC07]

Congrats! That is good news. I think you may be the first Dec filer, from the forum, that has got an EAD/AP approval.

I received my EAD & AP approval y'day.

SC:NSC
PD:12/06/2007
MD:12/01/2011
RD:12/02/2011
ND:12/05/2011
EAD & AP Approved: 01/17/2012
FP: Not yet received.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

[ChampU]

Unless there is a large spike in the # of applications between now and March Bulletin or CO decides to avoid an inventory big enough to sustain for 2+ years, is it safe to assume that we will see another 3-12 month movement ??

[gkjppp]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

Dude, were you back from India? so for no news on NVC receipts, we are almost done with Jan.day by day chances to become current is running away< anyway its not in my hand, only thing is i need to renew my H1 may be two more times,i got 2 times 1 year renewal based on 140 approval, 100% based on client letter>. also your attorney told <50% chances for this month movement .Well looking at 12000 makes to think demand destruction worked or may be folks are busy in filing/finding attorney/shots/negotiating with employer. We are not sure on anything.

[suninphx]

Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.

[Spectator]

Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase.

Teddy,

That is an extremely good point and, at the moment, will offset much of the 20% who never update with an approval.

I found that insight very useful.

[TeddyKoochu]

IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.

Sun the numbers are fairly close to the average for most months they are heavy in Jan and Feb 2008. The 2200 per month figure if you remember is based on the 75 - 25 EB2 - EB3 Split and 2.125 dependent ratio (1 in 8 families having non US born kids). So anyone who has different ratio's will get a lower figure here itself then demand destruction should be applied. Refer the post by Spec in facts and data for details
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

[vizcard]

It is too early to speculate January demand yet...but the number is still unusually lower. However let's still give it at least a month more before determining the potential demand.

Also as Teddy says, OR of 0.8 looks more or less likely, so between July-07 and Mar'08, @1800 per month is the best estimate right now, which translates to a demand of about 14000. Since around 10K is already given out for EB2-IC, 14K is more or less "remaining", so 15th March 2008 is the last date that will get GC in FY 2012 - right in line with what was predicted.

Unfortunately, this reduces the likelihood of a March movement. The USCIS may finally have received "enough" applications. I have postulated that if we see a demand of over 2000 before the March bulletin, the dates will stall, since that demand is sufficient to consume the monthly spillover. If the date stalls once, it will remain that way (or worse, retrogress) since the demand will continue building up.

Applications doesn't equal demand....officially anyway. Until it becomes actual real demand, they can keep moving dates ahead. I'm not saying whether they will or will not but I don't know if there's enough real demand just yet given the processing times needed to adjudicate applications. I expect some movement in the next bulletin but I don't think it'll be a whole year.

[Osaka001]

Applications doesn't equal demand....officially anyway. Until it becomes actual real demand, they can keep moving dates ahead. I'm not saying whether they will or will not but I don't know if there's enough real demand just yet given the processing times needed to adjudicate applications. I expect some movement in the next bulletin but I don't think it'll be a whole year.

As per CO comments in Feb VB, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off"

They may consider I-485 filings.

[vgraj1]

[QUOTE=sportsfan33;18917]I agree with that, and I believe CO will be willing to use every trick in his book to move the date forward. However as we are getting reports about people starting to receive EADs and as someone from Nov'11 filing also received his GC, there is some sign that the USCIS processing has picked up. They don't have to process all the November/December batch. Even if they process a fraction of those and show a demand of 2K, that's enough to stop the movement.

"Good analysis sportsfan! Please also include March spillover of 5K visas coming into EB2 I pool. Even if USCIS processing DQ cases requiring visas pick up, it may not cover the monthly quota plus 5K visas. So, it does look a further movement in March 2012 and possibly in April 2012 is possible; hopefully it goes up to April 2011 PD !"

[Spectator]

Sun the numbers are fairly close to the average for most months they are heavy in Jan and Feb 2008. The 2200 per month figure if you remember is based on the 75 - 25 EB2 - EB3 Split and 2.125 dependent ratio (1 in 8 families having non US born kids). So anyone who has different ratio's will get a lower figure here itself then demand destruction should be applied. Refer the post by Spec in facts and data for details
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

Teddy,

I couldn't find a good explanation in the post you linked to.

I have created an explanation in the FACTS & DATA section here

Feel free to edit or add to it if you feel it doesn't adequately explain the concepts.

[TheTexan]

Sorry for posting here guys but I wanted to know as to how soon do you get (if at all) RFE? If you get your EAD is it safe to assume that all requirements have been satisfied?

[nishant2200]

Sorry for posting here guys but I wanted to know as to how soon do you get (if at all) RFE? If you get your EAD is it safe to assume that all requirements have been satisfied?

How soon you get depends on postal delivery time. Generally would say a week.

You cannot assume all good if you get EAD, you can still get RFE for 485. I in fact think, different officers adjudicate EAD and 485. 485 would go to experienced senior officers, while EAD/AP is more of a junior level kind of work.

[Desperate8]

PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center

[dec2007]

PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center

Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

[Desperate8]

Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

Thank You , although I was expecting a delay as I know we might not be able to make it - moreover Feb 3rd is the date I did'nt want it to be on
For you did you follow up with the service center , make sure that NSC with your PD no body have got their FP notice.

Hoping to get things moving the same way and I get my GC - I am about to retire

[vedu]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the November 2011 figures. I-140 receipts (total 37582) during June, 2011 -November, 2011 are significantly less than the receipts (total 47597) during June, 2010 - November, 2010. Additionally, the difference between the two totals keeps increasing month after month. Considering the four months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

I-140 receipts (total 31697) during June, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during June, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

[TorreyPines]

Hi All,

Given HR3012's passing in house, what are the chances that EB2ROW gets aggressive this fiscal year in pursuing their GCs? How much impact that may cause? If they manage to kick-off PERMS in Jan/Feb'12, they might be just-in-time to affect our SO numbers. Quarterly SO might help reduce the impact in short term though.

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the November 2011 figures. I-140 receipts (total 37582) during June, 2011 -November, 2011 are significantly less than the receipts (total 47597) during June, 2010 - November, 2010. Additionally, the difference between the two totals keeps increasing month after month. Considering the four months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.