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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #3901
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The 123k figure came from this USCIS document.

    USCIS only deal with AOS cases for which an I485 is required. The balance to the 140k would be Consular Processed cases handled by DOS, for which no I-485 is required.

    17k is slightly higher than recent years (13-14k), but I can think of some reasons why that might be the case.
    Spec, i dont see your prediction for my earlier post

    Guru's

    if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

  2. #3902
    Not sure but I have a feeling that the next PD is going to be Jan 01, 2011.

  3. #3903
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    Theoretically there is no need for further movement. But if there's uncertainty in terms of demand, CO could move it as much as he wants. It could be 1 month, 3 months or 12 months....... or nothing at all.

  4. #3904

    Niw

    Spectater

    All NIW do not have any relation with J1 waiver. The NIW I am talking about is independent of any J1 waiver. It is for 5 years, you do not need an employer to file and you do not need PERM but you do need employment contract for 5 years.

  5. #3905
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    Quote Originally Posted by username1 View Post
    Spectater

    All NIW do not have any relation with J1 waiver. The NIW I am talking about is independent of any J1 waiver. It is for 5 years, you do not need an employer to file and you do not need PERM but you do need employment contract for 5 years.
    username1,

    Thanks for the clarification.

    I had to make an educated assumption, which I stated, since many foreign physicians use the J-1 for graduate medical studies and then work in an under served area to waive the HRR.

    I now understand the waiver available via NIW (8 CFR §204.12: National Interest Waivers for Physicians Serving in a Medically Underserved Area or VA Facility)
    Last edited by Spectator; 01-12-2012 at 11:38 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #3906
    Asked my immigration attorney (one of the largest in the country, not fragomen though) whether my Sep 2010 PD could become current in the next few months. She is always super duper conservative and always uses the phrase 'wait for years on Eb2 India'. Today she said "it is possible". Not saying she has any insights and certainly not asking anyone to become more optimistic but wanted to highlight how confused the entire fraternity is with this rapid date movement.

  7. #3907
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    Not decided to file %

    20k H1's are for MS guys, assume 50% them applied for GC's every year . ie 10k. 50% chances are there 5k are unmarried in that pool or in dilemma to file or rushing for finding girl, this definetely take atleast 6 months to 1 year for them to file.most of them finishes MS by 23 years + 2.5 years OPT + 2 years H1 they start apply for GC=28 years

    so since Jan 1st 2008 to Jan 1st 2010 there must be atleast 8k . i.e 17% huge....what do you guys think?

  8. #3908
    I am not sure, if I understand the correlation with the applicant's age.. (23+2.5+...??)

    Since you are looking at the H1B pool.. and since 80% of MS guys applying for H1 come from retrogressed countries.. I would say that applicants would jump at the first opportunity to start the GC process (PERM+I140). The decision of filing for I-485 could be dominated by the marital status but that opportunity was not available to them until a couple of months ago..But the guys are definitely in the queue.

    The reluctance of companies to file for PERM etc. because of the economy could be a reason that folks (who would have been eligible) haven't filed for PERM yet. I am not sure if there is a way to track that.. (Guys on H1 but who haven't filed for PERM).

  9. #3909
    For those worried about date being current before getting married - one piece of advice:

    Your spouse can benefit from your PD even after you get your GC. This is called "follow to join". This topic has previously been discussed on the forum. Please search on this one. If I remember correctly Spec had answered these questions in detail.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #3910
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    USCIS Policy Memo on EB-5 Adjudications -Draft

    USCIS Policy Memo on EB-5 Adjudications - Draft posted for comments.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  11. #3911
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    Just received magic e-mail for my 485 case status changed to Card/ Document Production, waiting on spouse 485 case status to change.

    Interestingly, my delayed EAD-AP card arrived in the mail today (40 days after approval), can't even enjoy it for a day!.

    Teddy, Nishanth to follow and i wish all the best to those already filed and the others waiting to file their AOS.
    Last edited by veni001; 01-12-2012 at 10:26 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  12. #3912
    gkjppp,

    I hope you meant 10/2013 in your signature...my PD(03/11/10) is very close to your PD and I hope the worst case situation is 10/2013.

  13. #3913
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricfan View Post
    gkjppp,

    I hope you meant 10/2013 in your signature...my PD(03/11/10) is very close to your PD and I hope the worst case situation is 10/2013.
    Nope, it is 10/2014 without HR 3012. it takes more than 2 years to clear current inventory, approx 58k cases. Its now or in 2014 for us.
    TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:

  14. #3914
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    Quote Originally Posted by codesmith View Post
    Congratulations Veni !!

    Does this mean that now USCIS/DOS has much more demand and we should see actual demand in next bulletin ?
    Would GC be handed out till the end of sep 2012 or can it halt in between ?
    codesmith,

    The way USCIS is approving PWMB applications, we may not see them as part of the monthly demand data DOS is publishing.

    Assuming USCIS will stick to QSP, yes we will see approvals through out FY2012.

    By the time USCIS start processing Dec'11/Jan'12 EB2IC filers, DOS should start seeing lot of VISA requests coming-in than the numbers available, which will trigger the next VB to see retro.
    Last edited by veni001; 01-13-2012 at 01:20 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  15. #3915
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    codesmith,

    The way USCIS is approving PWMB applications, we may not see them as part of the monthly demand data DOS is publishing.

    Assuming USCIS will stick to QSP, yes we will see approvals through out FY2012.

    By the time USCIS start processing Dec'11/Jan'12 EB2IC filers, DOS should start seeing lot of VISA requests coming-in than the numbers available, which will trigger the next VB to see retro.
    next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.
    TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:

  16. #3916
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkjppp View Post
    next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.
    Yes hopefully.. Im @ Feb 2010.. hope we get a chance in March

  17. #3917
    Quote Originally Posted by gkjppp View Post
    next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.
    If you refer to the CO's interview ..
    http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

    And if you take his word then I don't think we should see much/any movement in coming times, IMHO. Don't want to be spoiler

  18. #3918
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    Quote Originally Posted by codesmith View Post
    If you refer to the CO's interview ..
    http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

    And if you take his word then I don't think we should see much/any movement in coming times, IMHO. Don't want to be spoiler
    Thats old news, even in that CO told "4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated", Let's wait and see.
    TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:

  19. #3919
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkjppp View Post
    next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.
    gkjppp,

    What i mean to say was the bulletin that will be published in the month (or after) DOS see the increased demand for the VISA numbers.

    Considering the 3-4 month processing time we are seeing now, best case scenario will be April or worst case June.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  20. #3920
    Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.

  21. #3921
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jitesh View Post
    Congrats!!
    When did you file your 485?
    Thank you

    Here is my case details.

    TSC || PD : 05/10/2007 || RD: 03-Oct-2011 || ND: 05-Oct-2011 || FP : 27-Oct-2011 || EAD/AP : 02-Dec-2011 || 485: 01/12/2012
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  22. #3922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nishant_imt View Post
    Gurus,

    My company is filling my PERM again. This time to see things move forward quickly, they posted the job ads with a decently high salary and simultaneously apply for a PWD. The idea was that the wage will be higher then the PWD and so we can PERM immediately after the cooling period. My question is, is that legal and ok to post the ad before the prevailing wage is determined ? thanks in advance.
    Nishant_imt,

    I agree wih Q, it is perfectly legal and poses no problems if the salary is higher than the PWD.

    I think the only difference is that the PERM must be submitted within the validity of the PWD rather than within 180 days of recruitment starting, had that been after the PWD was received. Don't quote me on that.

    I have no doubt your team will be on top of the regulations.

    Best of luck for a speedy and successful process.
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  23. #3923
    Quote Originally Posted by Rkmarthy View Post
    Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.
    It is an issue in the sense that it should either urs or RD. else when processing time comes and here date is not current there could be issues.
    I have the same problem, i talked to my lawyer, he didnt say "nah its ok" they are going to talk to uscis.
    I suggest you talk to ur lawyer.
    Service Center: NSC || PD: 3/13/08 || RD: 12/21/11 || ND: 12/23/11 (RIH: 1/4/12) || FP: 2/16(Notice 1/20) || EAD/AP: 02/08 || I-485: CPO email 3/9 GC in hand 3/15/12(check PD )

    Refer to FAQs on Post AOS/485 Filing here at post#1

  24. #3924
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    Not a single post today?

  25. #3925
    Quote Originally Posted by Rkmarthy View Post
    Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.
    I think this is normal. If you notice there should be a line on the rcpt notice that the earlier PDs may not reflect. Since primary & derivatives applications move as one file, it should not delay her case processing.
    TSC PD:31-JUL-2007, RD:01-NOV-2011 , ND:04-NOV-2011, FP DONE: 18-NOV-2011

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