EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
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Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.

[TeddyKoochu]

Everyone should make the best efforts to file as soon as their dates become current. Some people do have genuine reasons like they changed employers and have to file again, some not married or in other cases spouse stuck in home country for stamping. Unlike in 2007 everyone's labor is approved so there is really nothing to wait for, the entire class of PWMB's including me are those who missed Jul 2007 because our labor went to Atlanta that was taking 3 months. Also if you are close I would say don't change jobs for some time and don't travel, this will be a boat not to miss. Since the intake is going to be so large the next boat may not come next year, the PWMB’s have waited more than 4 years and no one would like to become the next generation PWMB. Hope once again that more and more people become current.

[EB2Jun08]

I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

RRRRR,
MY Amended 140 was upgraded to PP after 2 months of intital receipt. I looked at I-140 form before the filing and original labor and 140 receipt numbers were mentioned in the file.

[nathang]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

What is the PD in june 2009 that received the NVC notice? I thought 19 May 2009 was the latest?

[kd2008]

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.

[Kanmani]

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

[suninphx]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

You are right- the case which I posted was May 2009.

But have not seen any co-relation between NVC date and movement being done only to that date. Last year latest NVC we heard was Jun/jul 2008 and we have already crossed that.

[waiting]

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

[march272010]

this scares S*** out of me

==================================

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

[Nandivada]

Guys
Pardon my ignorance... but what is NVC date? My PD is Nov 10, 2009 and EB2/I. I have moved from where I was when I had applied for Labor/I-140. Will this cause any issues or will the notice/letter go to my employer/attorney?

[Spectator]

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

I think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

[qesehmk]

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.

Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

[gkjppp]

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

Thanks imdeng,I am just looking for Ap and eads not sure of others priorities. I can atleast visit my parents whenever I wish. Hope I will get my ap ead by 2013.

[reachme_s]

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.

Thanks Nishant and Q for the info.
In the police report, it says Simple assault. I was arrested that night and finger printed and next day morning I was released. After that the case was dismissed and then I got it expunged.

[sakshi01_ngp]

Hello,

On the onset thank you very much.
I have benefited immensly from this forum.

I need some help with the question which I am sure you are guys are capable.
I am sorry for posting this question here as I am not sure where to post it, please redirect my post as appropriate.

I have a question:

My 485 will be pending for more than 180 days soon and I want to change jobs using AC21.

I want to change my job from "Quality Engineer" to "Desgin Engineer" within the same company. The jobs are different but both of them are in Engineering related to same products.


Can I do it without hampering my GC process?


Regards

[Kanmani]

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

[Pundit Arjun]

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

Kanmani, Which Proposal are you referring to ? Enlighten me, please

[TeddyKoochu]

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

[imdeng]

Considering that Mumbai Consulate update did not happen and the Demand Data is not out yet - and that this was a short week, I guess the chances of VB coming out today is kind of low.

Also - this means that unlike last couple months, we are not looking at a pre-determined VB. It is still evolving - and that I think is not the best news for PD movement. Anyways - wait and see.

[pdfeb09]

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority dates, that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet, lie. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.

[Kanmani]

Teddy thank you.

You and Spec are correct . I myself had little hesitation to update the trackitt profile some years back. I later realised upon I-140 approval , this updation would help others in the long run . So fellow trackitters please update your profile, if you really believe in give and take policy. It really works.

Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

[gkjppp]

I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority date lies that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.

2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.

[pdfeb09]

2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.

You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

[suninphx]

You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

Also to be noted that 50K is assumption based on previous years numbers. The actual number could be much different.

[suninphx]

I think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?