EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[eb2visa]

Any one interested in PERM data:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

[eb2visa]

I-140 National trend charts

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1

[qesehmk]

I don't know you got that eb2visa. It does say that "prompting even more aggressive movement in January and possibly beyond... (followed by) ... retrogression".

So if CO is true to his words then we should see some movement in Feb too ... UNLESS he declares victory and says that he has received enough 485 to take care of any possible spillovers.

The truth is - without QSP - he had all the demand he needed to allocate visas through May 2012. Then it was a sudden fall off the cliff. So he generated demand without much of a basis of his prior precendent of not applying QSP.

Then now he is applying QSP .... but the movement so far IMHO is much bigger than the QSP for Q1. So the movement seems entirely discretionary. I would think that the fact that CO talks about possible movement beyond January ... means he is going to do at least one more movement. Big or small is anybody's guess.

Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[suninphx]

Any one interested in PERM data:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Extensive analysis has been carried out by Veni, Spec. Please visit below links. They are very helpful.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)

[suninphx]

Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

In current scenario date movement is in discretionary mode hence can move to ANY date CO likes. Getting actual card is different ball game and that's what Teddy has mentioned in his post. I think general consensus on this forum is that 'actual card in hand' date will be somewhere in first quarter of CY2008 at end of FY 2012.

[veni001]

Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
.......................
.......................

Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.

The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.

To conclude based on the Trackitt Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.

Good analysis Teddy!

In current scenario date movement is in discretionary mode hence can move to ANY date CO likes. Getting actual card is different ball game and that's what Teddy has mentioned in his post. I think general consensus on this forum is that 'actual card in hand' date will be somewhere in first quarter of CY2008 at end of FY 2012.

We extensively talked about two year buffer, before really hyped/disappointed Aug/Sept 2011 Visa Bulletins followed by FY2012 surprises. I believe that the current movement is in line with our initial assumptions/predictions.

Until we know the amount of Demand Destruction, I agree that, based on possible SOFAD estimates actual GC issuance by FY2012 for EB2IC will be for PD's in Q1 of CY2008.

[mechanical13]

Which other forum are you talking about?... trackitt? It all depends on CO.

Yes, I guess that is what I am referring to, but I was referring to the EB2 trends rather than EB1 trends. I realize that EB-1C is what is absorbing a majority of the cases. (I wonder when USCIS will catch on that EB-1C is massively misused..)

Don't the EB2 trends give valuable information about inventory? Using these total figures, and EB2 ROW approvals, we should be able to back out EB2 IC data - right? (probably easier said than done), but this is probably a better starting point than using PERM data and then assuming a EB2-EB3 split.

What are you thoughts on VB movement? It is true that USCIS likes to keep a 30k-50k buffer at all times so they are slowly and steadily adjudicate people?

[suninphx]

Good analysis Teddy!



We extensively talked about two year buffer, before really hyped/disappointed Aug/Sept 2011 Visa Bulletins followed by FY2012 surprises. I believe that the current movement is in line with our initial assumptions/predictions.

Until we know the amount of Demand Destruction, I agree that, based on possible SOFAD estimates actual GC issuance by FY2012 for EB2IC will be for PD's in Q1 of CY2008.

Veni thanks for pointing this out. As long as there is some logic in the movement that makes every one more comfortable as future movement becomes relatively easier to predict. I guess same model has been deployed for 'family based' visas?
I have a question - if CO is looking for a 2 year buffer which may be around lets say 50 K buffer. So ones CO gets required buffer and dates retrogress then dates stall till FY2014? Or there will be demand build up at start of FY2013 to replenish the buffer?

[suninphx]

I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.

Sounds logical - thanks Sports.

[eb2visa]

2 YEAR inventory means jan 2010???

I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.

[veni001]

Veni thanks for pointing this out. As long as there is some logic in the movement that makes every one more comfortable as future movement becomes relatively easier to predict. I guess same model has been deployed for 'family based' visas?
I have a question - if CO is looking for a 2 year buffer which may be around lets say 50 K buffer. So ones CO gets required buffer and dates retrogress then dates stall till FY2014? Or there will be demand build up at start of FY2013 to replenish the buffer?

suninphx,
Considering last couple of years SOFAD, looks like a reasonable number. But remember there are lot of variable in determining each years Spillover, and can not be taken for granted.

I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.

sportsfan33,
It depends on EB2IC demand USCIS/DOS will be receiving based on the cut-off dates. Assuming our demand calculations are correct then any less spillover means, there may not be any new intake for couple of years!

2 YEAR inventory means jan 2010???

eb2visa,
That will depend on the amount of demand destruction between 2008-2010.

[suninphx]

That's right. I was assuming a theoretically perfect scenario, where the USCIS hits the bulls eye and the demand they collect lines up with SOFAD numbers for 2012 AND 2013 in such a way that by September 2013, the demand collected up to April 2012 would reach zero.

If spillover is less, that pushes the date of next forward movement even ahead. The point is that it is *not* correct to assume that they will always keep 50K inventory at all times. They build up the inventory once, and when it reaches low numbers, that's when they push aggressively and build it up again.

Some thoughts: Teddy's analysis on EB1 is quite disturbing. But I believe the way USCIS is denying the H1Bs to control the future EB2/EB3 demand and using the Kazarian memo to control the EB1A and EB1B demand, the day of reckoning for EB1C is not too far away. The good old party will be over some time soon - especially if HR 3012 fails. I like to believe that they have some stake in moving the EB2/EB3 dates at some reasonable pace and if the push came to shove, they will take up reforming EB1C.

Can't agree more on EB1C. Let me tell a classic example from one of my previous company. They applied a Eb1C for a person with 6-7 years experience showing him as international manager (I know this is perfectly within rules and I am not complaining). He got GC within a year while his Principle Tech Arch is still waiting in Eb2.

[nishant2200]

sportsfan33, I think that generally these days, the agencies have been quite pin-pointed in catching "trends". The trend maybe an upshot in EB1C, or a decline in EB1A-B, EB2 (the DHS document which people were discussing few pages back), the need to prove employer employee relationships and the talk of needing H1 amendment for each location change (effectively trying to kill consulting IT industry). Now upon seeing a trend, how they react to it, that would depend on the policymakers of the country, the sentiment and will of the politicians and the public (like for eg: bad economy -> anti-immigrant sentiment).

What is needed, if agencies do catch this EB1C trend, co-relate it with tightening of processes in H1B and L visas, is a Memo similar to Kazarian. You are right in calling it a "reform".

That's right. I was assuming a theoretically perfect scenario, where the USCIS hits the bulls eye and the demand they collect lines up with SOFAD numbers for 2012 AND 2013 in such a way that by September 2013, the demand collected up to April 2012 would reach zero.

If spillover is less, that pushes the date of next forward movement even ahead. The point is that it is *not* correct to assume that they will always keep 50K inventory at all times. They build up the inventory once, and when it reaches low numbers, that's when they push aggressively and build it up again.

Some thoughts: Teddy's analysis on EB1 is quite disturbing. But I believe the way USCIS is denying the H1Bs to control the future EB2/EB3 demand and using the Kazarian memo to control the EB1A and EB1B demand, the day of reckoning for EB1C is not too far away. The good old party will be over some time soon - especially if HR 3012 fails. I like to believe that they have some stake in moving the EB2/EB3 dates at some reasonable pace and if the push came to shove, they will take up reforming EB1C.

[nishant2200]

I completely agree with you. Thanks for being non-biased on this, even though your wife's situation.

Also EB1C can even cannibalize any SO from EB5 and EB4, so even if we forget SO from EB1 due to it, potentially, we can get hit on SO from EB5 or EB4 also from this rising trend.

I think the "trend" is quite clear. I have seen the murmurs of massive EB1C abuses from 2009. If SOFAD seriously falls short of something like 25K, I think that is a warning sign to correct the problems in EB1C.

I think the EB1C poses a serious threat in the coming years and here's why: Salaries and property prices in India are skyrocketing and companies won't mind sending "managers" at 60-80K to the US locations in future. Already, some upper echelon salaries in India are exceeding what folks like us make here even on a pure dollar to rupee conversion. the property prices in Mumbai suburbs have exceeded those in the Montgomery County, MD (one of the best counties in the nation).

I have no beef with EB1C. The only problem I have is that is is completely unfair for someone to "sneak in" to this category with the much abused L1A after proving only "1 year oversees" was spent as a manager. I had cited the example of my wife on this forum before - to refresh, she went back to India, and got hired as a senior manager *immediately* in a bank. She subsequently got an offer from an IT giant who mentioned they would send her to the US on L1A in 2012 and would subsequently "do her green card in under an year". She is my lovely wife and everything, but c'mon, how is it fair for anyone to simply come to the US on L1A and get their green card in EB1C while thousands of us waited so many years? We all have paid our dues in this system, and I like to believe losing people like us with our savings and the ability to directly invest in the economy here is more harmful than tightening screws on EB1C.

IT consultants on the other hand almost exclusively use H1B and have to pass LC and get into EB2 at the most. Yes, things are made tough there, but the business will survive with the deserving candidates getting their green cards. I think they are tough as they are. It's time for EB1C to fall in line with everyone else.

[Desperate8]

Good evening to all - my situation is the same like sportsfan and to add to the above all mnc's have now open their EB1 doors that's just to overcome their hurdles in hiring people on a visa (concerning all visa issues) not to spot ,but I have also waited for more than 8 years broken at heart by the first employer who took me for a ride for 4 years. Well nothing can bring the time back I have gone from black to gray haired .finally got to file485 starting jan , but after learning about what big companies are upto I fear we would ever get a spill over and would ever clear the backlog.heart goes to all .sorry if I had hurted someone it's just that I am desperate.

[cm9201]

I know one of my friend who is under EB2I 2010 was trying to get his wife who has around 6 years experience in EB1 through congnigent. Wonder is she is tester in infosys. I am not sure how this is possible.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think the "trend" is quite clear. I have seen the murmurs of massive EB1C abuses from 2009. If SOFAD seriously falls short of something like 25K, I think that is a warning sign to correct the problems in EB1C.

I think the EB1C poses a serious threat in the coming years and here's why: Salaries and property prices in India are skyrocketing and companies won't mind sending "managers" at 60-80K to the US locations in future. Already, some upper echelon salaries in India are exceeding what folks like us make here even on a pure dollar to rupee conversion. the property prices in Mumbai suburbs have exceeded those in the Montgomery County, MD (one of the best counties in the nation).

I have no beef with EB1C. The only problem I have is that is is completely unfair for someone to "sneak in" to this category with the much abused L1A after proving only "1 year oversees" was spent as a manager. I had cited the example of my wife on this forum before - to refresh, she went back to India, and got hired as a senior manager *immediately* in a bank. She subsequently got an offer from an IT giant who mentioned they would send her to the US on L1A in 2012 and would subsequently "do her green card in under an year". She is my lovely wife and everything, but c'mon, how is it fair for anyone to simply come to the US on L1A and get their green card in EB1C while thousands of us waited so many years? We all have paid our dues in this system, and I like to believe losing people like us with our savings and the ability to directly invest in the economy here is more harmful than tightening screws on EB1C.

IT consultants on the other hand almost exclusively use H1B and have to pass LC and get into EB2 at the most. Yes, things are made tough there, but the business will survive with the deserving candidates getting their green cards. I think they are tough as they are. It's time for EB1C to fall in line with everyone else.

Agree with you on this. You know, from a physician's perspective, EB1C is pretty much an untouchable category because regardless of however hard we work and how many years of experience we have, we will never be working as a manager of a multinational company and will not be filing ever under EB1C. I am confident that you can't find a single physician filing under EB1C. You talked about 60-80k salary range as a manager where a physician will be starting way higher than that and still will be working in an underserved area getting exploited till he gets a green card.

Agree, that there are many physicians who are filing under EB1A and EB1B but the rejection rate is quite high for them. I have heard about so many physicians who were genuine candidates getting rejected under EB1A and EB1B recently.

Just to give you an example,
- I have 3 of my good friends who had very very strong resumes with more than 15 first author publications and very strong recommendations letters.
- Two of them had Masters in Public Health from Johns Hopkins and one had Masters in Microbiology from Harvard.
- All had GPA of 4 during medical school and masters.
- All had scholarships.
- Two of them secured gold medals in India during their post-graduation.
- One person wrote a book and published in his third year of MBBS.
- All of them are actually honorary critics in very very reputed peer reviewed journals so they review other physicians' articles and comment on them.
- All of them have very good high paying positions (>$250K per annum) in big universities and they work as Pediatric Cardiologist, Transplant Nephrologist and Pulmonary-Critical Care Specialist respectively.
- All have very very strong recommendation letters.
- They all are in their 40s after putting long years of their lives in studying medicine.

One applied in EB1A and rest two applied in EB1B. No one got RFEs. All of them got rejected (within 6 months, 8 months, 2 years respectively) for apparently no good reason. I have reviewed their applications personally and they were really really strong applications. I personally know them very well and one thing I can tell you is that they were way more qualified than anybody applying under EB1C.

On the other side, my neighbor who did his computer engineering in India and worked for a big software company for 2.5 years came here on L1A. The company that hired him filed his GC under EB1C and he got his GC within 6-7 months. No RFE or any other trouble. He told me that he makes around $85k every year. He is 28 years only and did not have even any significant experience.

I have nothing against him or anybody applying under EB1C because they are not doing any illegal thing but this whole system is really unfair and USCIS really needs to tighten the screws for EB1C.

[qesehmk]

Desper8
Your frustration is understandable and honesty is admirable.
I do think that EB1C rules in particularly have lost sanity. DOS really needs to look at them.

I do not call it misuse though since people are playing by the rules and framework set by DOS/USCIS.

However if EB2/3 were to write a petition to DOS/USCIS explaining the situation - I wouldn't blame EB2/3 folks. I particularly think that people with at least US masters or even bachelors for that matter should be given a GC without question. And may be USCIS could create tiers of universities and make this applicable to Tier 1 universities only. That too will go a long to reduce frustration that people like you (and even me) have to face. Luckily I am free now having receivd my GC. But I can feel the pain hence the words.

Good evening to all - my situation is the same like sportsfan and to add to the above all mnc's have now open their EB1 doors that's just to overcome their hurdles in hiring people on a visa (concerning all visa issues) not to spot ,but I have also waited for more than 8 years broken at heart by the first employer who took me for a ride for 4 years. Well nothing can bring the time back I have gone from black to gray haired .finally got to file485 starting jan , but after learning about what big companies are upto I fear we would ever get a spill over and would ever clear the backlog.heart goes to all .sorry if I had hurted someone it's just that I am desperate.

[mechanical13]

Agree with you on this. You know, from a physician's perspective, EB1C is pretty much an untouchable category because regardless of however hard we work and how many years of experience we have, we will never be working as a manager of a multinational company and will not be filing ever under EB1C.

EB1C is definitely a massive loophole that MNCs are manipulating to reduce their GC processing overhead. My heart goes out to the doctors and researchers who are stuck in GC limbo while less talented folk get their GC faster.

We need to bring awareness to this. How do we do this? Should we start a online petition? Should we involve the group that should not be mentioned on this forum?

[srimurthy]

Surprising to see people with a overall experience of 3 years qualifying for EB1 category, when people with bachelors + 5 years is the criteria for EB2. Also I do understand the pain of medical professionals and one of the reasons is there are organizations like ADA and AMA who minotor and stipulate the necessary qualifications even to get into college for further education. My spouse is a dentist with multiple year experience and finally gave up to get into a school and pursue her career. I am a IT manager with 15 years of experience still working for GC. By denying people with the kind of qualifications that Jonty shared, US is harming itself is my feeling.

[Desperate8]

Absolutely agree with all above , especially with Jonty R , qesehmk thanks for your input.
Well i would wonder if someone from USCIS may be CO himself spends couple of minutes looking into this forum and realizing the pain we have to go through.
For now the only way I get out of this frustration is by looking at my 2 beautiful kids growing
Hopefully this year brings us all some peace and happiness by all means. Stay healthy and relaxed - god bless everyone.

[self.coach]

EB3I are not happy that comparatively equal/lesser qualified candidates get in the EB2I queue. They forget that EB3I has been abused by Indian companies too, and yet play the victim card. Many of them themselves may have worked for consulting companies even without projects (on bench) and kept the payroll going to stay in status, which is abuse of the system too if you go by the books. And they use all means possible to port from EB3 to EB2 as well.

Now, EB2I are not happy about the same thing happening to EB1I. They forget that EB2I has been abused as well, by many EB2I applicants who filed through Indian companies that advertised (during Perm process) EB3 type jobs with "Masters Degree required".

For GC, if your employer agrees your request to apply GC through an advanced category, are you going to step back saying that "this is an abuse of the system and I am not willing to do it"? The answer is no, isn't it? And yet the greener grass on the other side always appears to be in the wrong.

Desper8
Your frustration is understandable and honesty is admirable.
I do think that EB1C rules in particularly have lost sanity. DOS really needs to look at them.

I do not call it misuse though since people are playing by the rules and framework set by DOS/USCIS.

However if EB2/3 were to write a petition to DOS/USCIS explaining the situation - I wouldn't blame EB2/3 folks. I particularly think that people with at least US masters or even bachelors for that matter should be given a GC without question. And may be USCIS could create tiers of universities and make this applicable to Tier 1 universities only. That too will go a long to reduce frustration that people like you (and even me) have to face. Luckily I am free now having receivd my GC. But I can feel the pain hence the words.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - thanks for this detailed post. Bottom line of this data is that we really really need some legislative relief and soon.
Its really frustrating to be at mercy of someone for spillover. I also have a feeling that Eb1C is kinda bringing themselves on radar with so many approvals. It's hard to imagine that there are almost equal number of international managers required as developers. . Ok end of rant.
what's percentage range trackitt trend has been reliable in past?

Sun here is my post from the 2011 thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...11&p=23#post23
Using the Trackitt trend we were able to come to a conclusion that there is a good chance that EB1 would give spillover this year. In fact Eb1 did not provide any spillover in the last 2 years. Trackitt numbers are good in providing a good sense of direction; however we should use our own judgment in using them.
The reason why we are seeing a higher number of approvals now is due to the extremely high I140 clearance. EB1C has always constituted 50% of Eb1. Looks like on Trackitt the Indian representation is higher we should not take the trend in absolute terms therefore. That is why I would prefer to still call it a 50% increase in EB1 and no SOFAD arising rather than 200%. As Nishant pointed out EB1 is really a category of no limits they can even absorb the EB5 spillover. The current quarter will be very interesting to observe for EB2 ROW and EB1.
Incidentally Q is the pioneer of using the percentage reduction method for predictions this is how it all started. Using Trackitt one advantage is that we do not have to go in for assumptions as to what percentage to put to say EB1 / EB2 / EB3, ROW , I/C etc its all done.

[suninphx]

Sun here is my post from the 2011 thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...11&p=23#post23
Using the Trackitt trend we were able to come to a conclusion that there is a good chance that EB1 would give spillover this year. In fact Eb1 did not provide any spillover in the last 2 years. Trackitt numbers are good in providing a good sense of direction; however we should use our own judgment in using them.
The reason why we are seeing a higher number of approvals now is due to the extremely high I140 clearance. EB1C has always constituted 50% of Eb1. Looks like on Trackitt the Indian representation is higher we should not take the trend in absolute terms therefore. That is why I would prefer to still call it a 50% increase in EB1 and no SOFAD arising rather than 200%. As Nishant pointed out EB1 is really a category of no limits they can even absorb the EB5 spillover. The current quarter will be very interesting to observe for EB2 ROW and EB1.
Incidentally Q is the pioneer of using the percentage reduction method for predictions this is how it all started. Using Trackitt one advantage is that we do not have to go in for assumptions as to what percentage to put to say EB1 / EB2 / EB3, ROW , I/C etc its all done.

T,
The link you provided took me to landing page. The posts there are useful. I also navigated to page 23 of 2011 thread and saw some useful posts on EB1 there too. Thanks.

Just to confirm - you meant EB1 will (or will not ) provide spillover this year based on Trackitt trend?

[TeddyKoochu]

T,
The link you provided took me to landing page. The posts there are useful. I also navigated to page 23 of 2011 thread and saw some useful posts on EB1 there too. Thanks.

Just to confirm - you meant EB1 will (or will not ) provide spillover this year based on Trackitt trend?

Sun, refer to post # 12. Yes as per the current trend EB1 will not provide any SOFAD this year. We should continue to monitor this may change.

Also look at - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections