EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

For Oct 11 VB dates were moved 3 months. So we should see higher I485 receipts for that month(PWMBs)... but does not seem to be case..not sure if I am reading graph right.

suninphx,

Yes,Oct'11 i485 receipts include PWMB's. Looking at EB2IC PERM certifications after July-2007 this number is not significant between 15APR2007 to 15JUL2007 (~3.5k PERMS).

You can apply EB2:EB3, i140 denial ratio and any other factors to estimate possible EB2IC PWMB's for the three month period.

[Spectator]

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?

suninphx,

To the extent that we have to use Trackitt numbers, IMO it appears that if the 27% limit hasn't already been exceeded, it is pretty damn close to it.

Within the error margins, CO seems to have done a pretty good job as far as I can tell.

[Spectator]

suninphx,

Yes,Oct'11 i485 receipts include PWMB's. Looking at EB2IC PERM certifications after July 2007 this number is not significant between 15APR2007 to 15JUL2007 (~3.5k PERMS).

You can applying EB2:EB3, i140 denial ratio and any other factors to estimate possible EB2IC PWMB's for the three month period.

Veni,

I agree with you.

October might have added 1.5-2.1k new EB2-IC I-485, depending on how aggressive a DD % is applied. That sort of number is too small to isolate from the normal variance between months.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

To the extent that we have to use Trackitt numbers, IMO it appears that if the 27% limit hasn't already been exceeded, it is pretty damn close to it.

Within the error margins, CO seems to have done a pretty good job as far as I can tell.

Thanks Spec.

Yes I was talking about 27%. is it 27% of total quota?

[shaumack]

Kanmani,

Maybe we are talking at cross purposes (and it wouldn't be the first time)!

If we exclude the 8k then sure we can say that a further x are required to reach a specific Cut Off Date from the date that 8k were used this year.

But the total needed in the entire year from October 1, 2011 to reach that Cut Off Date (SOFAD) would be 8k + x.

That is the figure I am quoting.

If you are saying that those 8k were approved from the FY2011 quota, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

I know this is something dear to your heart, so I won't push it further.

Enjoy your Holiday.

I agree with Spec over here. When it will come to available SOFAD for CO to decide where cut-off dates would end up on retrogression, those 8K have to be considered. They came from this years quota. So this years cut off date will be determined by the Demand = SOFAD - 8K-PWMB visa use-Porting upto that time.

PWMB and Porting is discretionary and one can take their best guess to estimate.

[vedu]

Guys,

As I understand, the available total annual visa quota is 366,000 (140,000 + 226,000). Out of curiosity, I counted the total I-485 completions during Oct, 10 to Sept, 11 from the USCIS dashboard. I was expecting that number to be approximately same as the annual quota. But to my surprise, the total I-485 completions during year 2011 were 637,385. Why is there so much difference? Is the rejection rate that high?

[veni001]

Guys,

As I understand, the available total annual visa quota is 366,000 (140,000 + 226,000). Out of curiosity, I counted the total I-485 completions during Oct, 10 to Sept, 11 from the USCIS dashboard. I was expecting that number to be approximately same as the annual quota. But to my surprise, the total I-485 completions during year 2011 were 637,385. Why is there so much difference? Is the rejection rate that high?

vedu,
Please note: Lot of other people can apply for AOS while in US besides EB&FB applicants!

On average US is welcoming 1 million immigrants(AOS+CP) every year!

[vedu]

Thanks Veni,

That makes sense. At the least, I also need to include I-485 applications generated by the diversity program.

vedu,
Please note: Lot of other people can apply for AOS while in US besides EB&FB applicants!

On average US is welcoming 1 million immigrants(AOS+CP) every year!

[tackle]

I remember someone posted a link to an official document which indicated that if the "Demand" is low, per country limits should not be imposed. Considering the fact that the EB2-I/C demand is close to 0, I'd think that they are not imposing the per country limits. Am I mistaken?

reference

[suninphx]

reference

Thanks.

Also got reply from Spec.

[Spectator]

Thanks Veni,

That makes sense. At the least, I also need to include I-485 applications generated by the diversity program.

vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[nishant2200]

Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291

WOV

btw below EB numbers are only for AOS, so they don't include CP, hence we should not conclude they wasted numbers, just an observation, as my first reaction was 4k wasted.

vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec.

Yes I was talking about 27%. is it 27% of total quota?

suninphx,

Yes that is 27% of the 140k quota, or 37,800 visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

[Spectator]

Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291

WOV

btw below EB numbers are only for AOS, so they don't include CP, hence we should not conclude they wasted numbers, just an observation, as my first reaction was 4k wasted.

nishant,

It is a pretty startling number, isn't it?

Thanks for reinforcing the fact that the numbers relate to AOS only. Since EB received extra numbers from FB in FY2010, the CP number was nearer 13k than 4k (in case people thought 4k seemed a bit low).

[bieber]

Kd2008

That post from ** (pappu) is so lame,

It's up to people what to do with the time, it's important to note that it was Q who first declared dates will move to atleast Mar,2008 in this fy. As per CO, the date movement will have huge movements till they get sufficient inventory and once we have the data, all the calculations and predictions will resume. It has already been proved with best accuracy that is possible.

their only policy is, give us money and don't ask questions otherwise

[nishant2200]

nishant,

It is a pretty startling number, isn't it?

Thanks for reinforcing the fact that the numbers relate to AOS only. Since EB received extra numbers from FB in FY2010, the CP number was nearer 13k than 4k (in case people thought 4k seemed a bit low).

Absolutely.

And I am pretty sure that this category is not scrutinized as much, and such high numbers have to indicate misuse and fraud. I am not against the reason behind the category, there is a value in humanity. In my wildest dreams even I didn't anticipate asylum and refugee category to take even more AOS numbers than EB. There is no World War 3 going on.

Coming back to our discussion of numbers at hand, thanks for pointing out that EB got extra numbers that year from FB. It was kind of bothering to me that just 4k out of 140k for CP doesn't sound right.

[TeddyKoochu]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

I-140 receipts (total 31697) during Jun, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during Jun, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

Spec thanks for posting, one good trend finally is that the pace of I140 approvals has calmed down and the backlog is in the same range. Vedu from the EB2 I/ perspective the collateral damage was already done in the last 3 months when the backlog came down by a full 20K from the peak.

[vedu]

Thanks Spec,

That's quite a number! On a completely different note, I was surprised by one other observation on the dashboard. Total I-485 completions for October, 11 (47,736) were less than the completion numbers in October, 10 (48,570). This is strange considering the following three factors:

1. Last year visas were exhausted in the middle of September, 11 and many ROW applicants had to wait for October to get their cases cleared.

2. Unprecedented number of I-140 applications were cleared in August and September requiring additional visa numbers.

3. A lot of pre-adjudicated IC cases were cleared in October, 11.

But since I-485 numbers comes from many different categories (as you noted in your post), I guess we should not read too much into these numbers.

vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec

weren't those 8000 cases already approved ? ( cases upto july 31 2007 )

Mind voice :- Nobody is on my side to strengthen my theory of apr to july cases approved from 2011 quota visa numbers .

Kanmani,

The October Demand Data showed 8,075 EB2-IC cases still remaining as we started FY2012. The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 8,225.

The PD2007 PERM figures quoted in the previous post are for cases that could not have been pre-existing, so they are in addition to the 8k pre-existing cases.

Spec thanks; I would really agree with the 10K figure as approvals till Q1 2012, I believe you said in another post responding to me. The demand data as you said had 8225 while the inventory has 14K (EB2 I + C), since even this month EB2-I approvals are coming by even this month (Jul + Aug )they are coming after the demand data said near zero a month back. The real truth could probably be a average of the DD & Inventory which would be 11K. So 10K is probably the minimum that has been / will be consumed out of these years SOFAD by Dec 31st, the inventory may always have some problematic long running cases and some maybe adjusted for porting. Kanmani they had announced in early Sep that numbers are over.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks; I would really agree with the 10K figure as approvals till Q1 2012, I believe you said in another post responding to me. The demand data as you said had 8225 while the inventory has 14K (EB2 I + C), since even this month EB2-I approvals are coming by even this month (Jul + Aug )they are coming after the demand data said near zero a month back. The real truth could probably be a average of the DD & Inventory which would be 11K. So 10K is probably the minimum that has been / will be consumed out of these years SOFAD by Dec 31st, the inventory may always have some problematic long running cases and some maybe adjusted for porting. Kanmani they had announced in early Sep that numbers are over.

Teddy,

I should have been more precise about the derivation of the figures.

8,075 represents the reported figure for EB2-IC to the end of 2007 from the October Demand Data document.

8,225 represents the numbers of EB2-IC from April 15, 2007 onwards reported in the May 27, 2011 USCIS Inventory (the latest available at the time).

As you said, subsequently the October 1, 2011 USCIS Inventory was released, which showed slightly lower numbers for that specific time period of 8,145.

As always, you have summed up everything beautifully.

The USCIS Inventory indicates that there are more cases that might become documentarily qualified than the 8,075 reported by DOS.

I agree with you that the USCIS numbers contain some dead cases and also that 10-11k is probably a more realistic figure.

Like you, I also think some attempt has been made in the latest Inventory to show known Porting cases as EB2.

[iatiam]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM

[iatiam]

I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

[leo07]

We just allocate certain percentage to such no-show cases.

[gkjppp]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM

This is for EB1, i am sure we dont get this info for EB2/3.

[Spectator]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM

As gkjppp noted, those statistics are for EB1A and EB1B.

I know we discussed this issue sometime last year. I think Veni may have derived a figure for EB2, but I can't remember for sure.

20% does feel about right for EB2 and is probably mainly driven by mismatches in PERM language and Educational equivalency issues.

If DOL and USCIS used the same criteria, the denial rate would be very low, since it is otherwise fairly quantitative. You either have a Masters or Bachelors + 5 or you don't and the job either requires it or not.

I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

Again, this has been discussed previously. I believe the consensus was that the % of cases where a PERM was approved and no I-140 submitted within 180 days would be quite low.

Any allowance for it would be made within the other factors, rather than adding an additional one.

Personally, I already use 5 different variables per year, per Country - that is 50 variables already.

Please keep highlighting any issues you think about. We may not have discussed them and it is good to revisit some of the old ones from time to time to ensure the thinking is still valid.