Page 126 of 321 FirstFirst ... 2676116124125126127128136176226 ... LastLast
Results 3,126 to 3,150 of 8002

Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #3126
    Quote Originally Posted by Feb262009 View Post
    But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.
    You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

    As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.

  2. #3127
    Quote Originally Posted by RRRRRR View Post
    You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

    As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.
    I don't think that there are fewer members from 2008 - PD.
    No one thought of such a big date movement and after such big movement we should have seen more joy and cry. But we didn't - I tend to agree with Gurus that there's demand destruction.
    When I called to my attorney he said, " the number of calls received after the bulletin were not as expected ..." I think there were at least 25-30 perms filed during 08 from my company but the number of calls received by attorney were very few and this might be the indicator of so called demand destruction.

    I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
    It's quiet baffling

  3. #3128
    Well - demand destruction should be highest among PWMB since they have waited the longest without EAD/AP - not to mention the disappointment of missing the big boat by mere days in many cases.
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed )
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  4. #3129
    We don't know whether there was or was not any demand destruction in 2007 and early 2008 PDs. For all we know, there was significant demand destruction there. Since last FY only reached 15-Apr-07, we just about finished with EAD/AP people - where we would expect low DD, if any. This FY is when we are getting new inventory including good part of PWMBs - this is where we would expect DD - but we won't know the extent until we get more data in the form of Demand Data or I-485 inventory.
    I would imagine that up to now DD was getting balanced by porting. Now perhaps we are reaching a situation where most of the potential porting cases are already through and there is nothing to balance the high level of DD.
    Quote Originally Posted by codesmith View Post
    I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
    It's quiet baffling
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  5. #3130
    My Situation:

    I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

    My question:
    1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

    Note: She is not planning to work any more
    Last edited by polapragada; 12-14-2011 at 08:44 AM.
    PD: 07 MARCH 2008
    I140: 10/08/2008 Approved
    I140 SOI: 09/27/2011 Approved
    AOS MD: 12/01/2011---AOS RD:12/02/2011---AOS ND:12/07/2011---AOS NRD:12/09/2011
    I485 LUD: 12/12/2011
    FP ND: 01/02/2012---FP N RD:01/06/2012---FP Actual SD:01/30/2012(DETROIT ASC)---FP Actual CD:01/30/2012)DETROIT ASC)
    EAD AD: 01/25/2012
    AP AD: 01/25/2012
    SC: NSC

  6. #3131
    Quote Originally Posted by polapragada View Post
    My Situation:

    I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

    My question:
    1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

    Note: She is not planning to work any more
    You will have to apply for H4 as she is on a different visa class. In any case check with your lawyer and make sure you apply for H4 before she quits so that there is no Gap

  7. #3132
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    84
    H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

    Check with your lawyer too...


    Quote Originally Posted by polapragada View Post
    My Situation:

    I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

    My question:
    1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

    Note: She is not planning to work any more
    EB2 I, PD: Jan 10 2008
    TSC | RD: 01-Dec-2011 | ND: 05-Dec-2011 | FP Done on:01/09/2012 | EAD Received on: 01/26/2012, 485 CPO received on: 02/13/2012, Card Received on: 02/17/2012

  8. #3133
    Quote Originally Posted by familyguy View Post
    H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

    Check with your lawyer too...
    I guess what familyguy is saying makes sense, since you have already applied for I485 so i guess you are good, Please ignore my previous post and do check with your lawyer though..

  9. #3134
    Guys,

    I have two I140 with different priority date and category. My lawyer have asked for "REQUEST FOR CONVERSION OF EB-3 PRIORITY DATE TO EB-2 PETITION". I am guessing that my case is under review with VO before they cash out my check and issue me receipt.

    Do you think VO will convert/port/interfile/etc.. and will issue me a 485 receipt?


    MD: Nov/30
    RD: Dec/1
    Center: TSC
    Chq. Cashed: Not yet
    [I]EB3 PD: Dec/21/2007
    EB2 PD: April/01/2009
    Center : TSC
    485 MD: Nov/30/2011 (with lawyer covering letter requesting to convert/interfile/port with EB3 priority date to EB2 category)
    485 RD: Dec/1/2011. 485 ND: Dec/13/2011
    FP Walk in Done: Dec/27/2011. (FP App. Date: Jan/18/2011)
    EAD/AP: Feb/10/2012
    On June/22/2008 USCIS issued new (notice of approval) I140 with EB2 category and PD Dec/21/2007
    GC: Aug/19/2013

  10. #3135
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

    Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.
    More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.
    PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I

  11. #3136
    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.
    In my OPINION it should not be an issue as long as you are getting married BEFORE i485 APPROVAL - before it is approved you are still H1b

    now I see why you are in bad situation if you are about to file your 485,, if your spouse is out of country she won't be able to come back on H4 if your 485 is already approved before wedding but it has nothing to do with you sending an application because i think your application will be approved based on your PD,,but you may be able to buy few weeks by delaying sending an application few weeks late. If you PD was 08/07, delay in sending application would delay your I 485 approval a little.. but your PD is 08/08 so in my OPINION you are not getting greencard anytime in next month or two,,,so if you are planning to get married soon before 485 APPROVAL, you r good ,,if you wait till your 485 is approved,, you r looking at probably filing F2a for your spouse if she is in India..(talk to your lawyer)

    and if girl is here in US on H1b living in different city, i don't see too many problems with Court marriage

    good luck
    Last edited by jackbrown_890; 12-14-2011 at 11:07 AM.

  12. #3137
    Quote Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25 View Post
    More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.
    As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

    Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

    you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.

  13. #3138
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

    Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

    you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.
    I agree with you, proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account MAY become an issue if you are marrying a US Citizen and Applying a greencard thru marriage and so they make you prove your marriage is not fake

  14. #3139
    This is common issue with most of the families.I think she will be considered as AOS status once L1 is revoked. Anyway check with lawyer. Also note there is 180 day grace period. So try to use either AP or EAD once you get it to be in safe side.

    Quote Originally Posted by polapragada View Post
    My Situation:

    I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

    My question:
    1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

    Note: She is not planning to work any more

  15. #3140
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    825
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

    PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
    CY 2008 2185 + 112
    CY 2009 707 + 63
    CY 2010 616 + 27
    CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

    I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
    CY 2008 687 + 62
    CY 2009 440 + 23
    CY 2010 431 + 19
    CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

    The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

    Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

    I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

    May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

    Please discuss.
    KD-
    I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
    Can you please check again?
    Last edited by suninphx; 12-14-2011 at 12:06 PM.

  16. #3141
    Teddy/Others
    can you please help understand how adjudication works.

    PD: Dec 2007
    I140 approved by company A which was acquired by Company B.
    Filing 485 next week along with an amended I140 (due to acquisition).

    My questions are;
    1. What is the sequence of approval that take place. We will get EAD, then i 140 gets approved and 485 and get GC?
    2. Will the I140 amendment process delay my GC. Premium processing of 140 is not allowed in my case.

    Thanks,

  17. #3142
    Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

    The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

    Curious to hear thoughts.

  18. #3143
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    KD-
    I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
    Can you please check again?
    Filter : India, Eb2, all,all,period,nochange,nochange,jan2007-Dec2011

    July 07 Dec 08 1055
    Jan 09 Dec 09 613
    Jan 10 Dec 10 560

    What do you think above % of total filers ?

  19. #3144
    We have an active discussion going in on this issue in the Bills/Advocacy thread. You are welcome to share your thoughts there.
    Quote Originally Posted by codesmith View Post
    Just wanted to update Q members.
    I'll remove this post at the end of day.

    From : http://immigration-law.com/
    12/14/2011: Three Most Powerful Democrats Introduced in Senate Compromised Employment-Based/Family-Based Immigration Bill

    Sen Chuck Schumer of New York, co-sponsored Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Sen. Leahy of Vermont, introduced yesterday S.1983 to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants, and for other reform. Obviously other reform includes relief of Irish which we discussed during last few days. It thus appears that this bill could be a bill to compromise H.R. 3012 and Irish relief. Read on. It thus appears that rather than introducing Irish relief bill, he added Irish E-3 visa and illegal Irish relief provision to H.R. 3012 which the House passes. Full text has yet to be made available. Stay tuned.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  20. #3145
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    KD-
    I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
    Can you please check again?
    Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

    PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.
    Last edited by kd2008; 12-14-2011 at 12:55 PM.

  21. #3146
    No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
    EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by BBear123 View Post
    Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

    The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

    Curious to hear thoughts.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  22. #3147
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    1,564
    Quote Originally Posted by BBear123 View Post
    Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

    The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

    Curious to hear thoughts.
    the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)

  23. #3148
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    96
    All, I am in a tricky situation. Sorry for posting it in this thread, but I need your advise. My employer has been one of those bloodsucking ones. I got current in Jan bulletin and sent a mail to HR asking for the filing of 485, etc. So far HR/employer (mine is not a consulting company, but a moderately large organization in India with 2-3 clients here in US), was thinking that my dates wont be current for atleast another year or so. This came as a shock to them and now they are trying to delay the filing process (hoping the dates would retrogress again in Feb bulletin). HR says that it will need approval from 2-3 people who are out for next couple of weeks, so they will start the internal approval process by first week of Jan and then send all details to the company attorney by end of Jan. Hence, they cant file for my AOS before Feb/Mar.

    Is there a way out for me or am I screwed? Can I hire my own attorney to file AOS? If yes, would I need anything from my employer (I do have a scanned copy of the labor and I-140 approval). WHat will happen if my employer finds out I went behind theior backs to file the AOS?

    Any help/advise is greatly welcome. I was so happy on Friday and now deeply depressed.

  24. #3149
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
    EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.
    Ok that makes sense, thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)
    Alright that again makes sense. Thanks.

  25. #3150
    I think you need to distinguish between two "Demands" here

    1. Reduction in demand for immigrant workers - This is the economic demand you are referring to and would depend on the part of economic cycle US is in. This would be reflected in the number of H1s and PERMs filed. For fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (filing years 2007 and 2008) the H1 cap was reached within a week where as in 2010 it took 9 months. This is also reflected in lower PERM filings for 2009 vs 2008 or 2007.

    2. The demand destruction being discussed here is related but different. Here people are discussing that after filing PERM, what percentage of people dropped out of the GC process. This can be due to losing the job (due to bad economy), multiple PERMs (so you dont need to follow up one PERM if another through your spouse is current), increase in I-140 denial rate. As Teddy and others have pointed out there is already a 38% demand destruction built into assumptions, but given the fast movement some people (so far not me) think that the number could be higher than that.

    Quote Originally Posted by BBear123 View Post
    Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

    The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

    Curious to hear thoughts.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 9 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 9 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •