EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

I am still trying to wrap my head around the movement in last VB. Somehow the whole thing is not sitting well with our well established impression of CO/DoS as being ultra-conservative in their approach. If we think through the timeline, this is what happened:
1. Early Summer 2011, low demand from EB1 prompted admission of large SOFAD and early PD movement.
2. PD movements continued to be aggressive until USCIS found some extra demand
3. PD stalled at the end of FY and we fail to cross 07/07
4. CO goes for Quarterly SOFAD in the new FY and also recognizes the need for building inventory for the coming SOFAD
5. Oct, Nov, Dec VB (movement up to 15-Mar-08) was measured movement for building inventory only
6. Gets info on low number of applications against Oct and Nov VB Bulletin (upto PD 01-Nov-07), pushes PD to 01-Jan-09 in Jab VB to account for low number of filings.

Except Step 6, everything else above is conservative. What has changed for CO to undertake a drastic 10 month PD movement? Especially since it is Jan VB and CO still has a couple of months to move PD and ensure that visa numbers are not wasted. Just saying its discretion does not cut it since the current action goes against what we have observed to be CO's primary approach.

If CO had been true to his approach, and needed PD to go to 01-Jan-09, then CO could have done 4 months in Jan, 4 months in Feb and 2 months in Mar. Why this hurry of 10 months in one shot? The explanation I have is that for whatever reason (demand destruction, building up to some inventory number, possibility of HR-3012), CO wants to go further than 01-Jan-09, that why this 10 month hit now and possibly another 6 months in Feb and 3 months in Mar (small chance). I still do not expect my PD (Aug-09) to be in line for being current this FY, but I imagine people in first half of 2009 better get all their documentation ready.

[venkimakthal]

Did fragomen guys contact you regarding next steps?

My PD 04/08/08, Fragomen expecting my date become current after Dec VB, they send me AOS Questionnaire, Birth Affidavit, requesting $2140 check "Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen and Loewy" (they will cut the checks to USCIS), 6 photographs and medicals.

[imdeng]

Folks - we have a post-485 thread as well as a "Prepare for 485" thread. Both are well visited. Please consider asking any non-emergency questions in the appropriate thread. Thanks.

[bieber]

Teddy, Nishanth

have you guys received FP notice? if possible, can any one give the estimate on how much the time gap between receipt date and finger print notice and actual fp appointment

I will delete the post as soon as possible, sorry for other folks who would get mad for non-calculation post (just like i was mad last month)

[srisaikrupa]

Guru's,

MY PD is 04/02/2009, can anyone see my PD being current in Feb or March VB??

Any insights is greatly appreciated.

[Pdmar08]

Need Quick help.
On 485 application there is a line saying enter ur name in native alphabet if applicable....so do they want it in Marathi(my mother tongue) or hindi or is that not applicable...freaking out.

[RRRRRR]

Gurus,

Sorry to post it here. I posted in different thread and don't see much traffic in there to get answer for this. Posting it here, please feel free to move it to appropriate thread.

With gods grace and with all your support my PD bacame current as of Jan 1 2012.

My current H1B is expiring on Feb 18th 2012. I will be filing my I-485 on Jan 1st.

When is the best time to file for H1B extension. I know that I won't be getting my EAD by Feb 18th 2012.

Option 1 : Apply H1 extension now and apply for I-485 after we get the receipt for H1B extension
Oprion 2 : Apply I-485 now with the current H1B approval notice which is valid till Feb-18-2012. And apply for H1B extension with the pending I-485 status.

If I take Option 2 I can apply for H1B extension in regular processing before end of Jan 2012, so that I can get my H1B extension receipt notice to maintain my working visa status. Once I get my EAD I will move on to that. But if something happens to H1B extension do I need to worry about it after I moved on to EAD. Will I be out of status between Feb 18th 2012 and until I get my EAD. Hoepfully not, as we can work using H1B extension receipt correct.

Please advise.

Hi,

I would suggest go with Option 2. Once you receive the 485 Receipt Notice then immediately file your H1 with regular processing(reason is in case you file for premium and it gets rejected for some reason then you might be in trouble and this will save you money too, also this will buy you more time and you may get your EAD/AP by the time you get you H1 approval) .

I believe Option 2 is a much cleaner approach and less complicated. In any case check with lawyer regarding this

[RRRRRR]

I was just going through my Documents, just noticed something with my I-94
I got my I-94 till Feb 2013 on my old passport (valid till Feb 2011), Visa was valid till Sep 2011. This didn't made sense to me.
I have applied for New passport and got it in Dec 2010
I have renewed & got approval of my new H1 till Sept 2014 with new I94 attached along with I-797

My question is
1. Looks like immigration officer gave I94 till Feb 2013 instead Feb 2011 (Passport expiry), does it affect me in any way during my 485 process?
2. I am current as of Jan 2011, which I94 will play now?
3. What ever immigration officer puts in I94 is that final even if its date which doesn't makes sense?


I was just looking at it and thought of getting your input on this, your help/input is greatly appreciated

I-94 which came with your Latest I797 overrides the older one. When you leave US you need to submit both old and new one at the POE.

[grnwtg]

As per my lawyer, write your name in your mother tongue ( Marathi in your case ), i do know many famous attorneys who did not say a word about this question( feed back from my friends). But i guess it makes sense to just write it in your Mother tongue script.

PS: Let us all please discuss 485 related question in appropriate thread. I know that thread is not active( nobody cared to answer my question) and no one want to post there ( including myself)
Moderators i....s there any way we can make I485 related threads Active??

Need Quick help.
On 485 application there is a line saying enter ur name in native alphabet if applicable....so do they want it in Marathi(my mother tongue) or hindi or is that not applicable...freaking out.

[msdhoni]

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[srisaikrupa]

Guru's,

MY PD is 04/02/2009, can anyone see my PD being current in Feb or March VB??

Any insights is greatly appreciated.

Can somebody throw some light in to the scenario??

[visagcinfo]

Theoretically, Yes.

PS: I don't consider myself as an expert, but you want to check with your (or, company B's) lawyer to avoid loosing time.

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

By all means you should try to convince company B to file I140 and 485 concurrently because the dates may retrogress at some point of time. By concurrent filing you can guarantee EAD / AP for yourself.

[leo07]

Absolutely YES. Be on top of it. Dates won't stay there unless the Immigration bill passes.

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[leo07]

Now we know for sure that Dates will retrogress. Just a matter of time. Folks who are Current don't waste any time in filing your APPs.

The words in red are interesting to me. I'd love to see the underlying data and where our assumptions have gone wrong (but oh so right!). But that will be after I finish my paperwork

[imdeng]

Ron Gotcher has an interesting response to someone asking whether PDs will continue to progress or whether there will be some retrogression. Here is what he said:

I think that it is going to continue to progress. In order for a retrogression to be needed, the USCIS will have to improve its I-485 processing times. I think we can take it to the bank that they are not capable or willing to do that.

Hmm... I guess he is saying that retrogression is not needed at the moment since USCIS is not ready to ask for visa numbers after processing 485s received this FY. Since Jan will bring new Quarterly spillover visa numbers for EB2IC, retrogression may not be needed until the current VB intake gets processed (Jan-12 + 6 months?). So we may have PD move forward a little or retrogress in late summer once all the spillovers are allotted and no more visa numbers are available. Thoughts?

Ron further continues in another post regarding possibility of retrogression to 2007 or 2008:

IF there is a retrogression, I doubt that it will be that severe. Again, in order for there to be a retrogression, you have to believe that the USCIS will do its job promptly and efficiently. OK, stop laughing. I meant that seriously.

Link to thread: http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=15831

[imdeng]

Another interesting tidbit from Ron Gotcher. Someone asked him about demand in 2008, 2009 PDs. He said the following:

The problem there is that we don't know how many of those PERMs were EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases. According to the Visa Office, possibly as many as 70% were filed on behalf of people who already had EB3 adjustments pending and wanted to upgrade to EB2. If so, then the potential demand is much smaller than expected.

I am not sure where that 70% figure came from. If that number is high enough (even if not 70%) then that will explain why USCIS is seeing low 485 demand this FY.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.c...t=15693&page=2

[Pdmar08]

thanks for the reply
can you please point me to the post. i will search myself. it would be great if you know

sorry for the delay, have been swamped at work.
It was by RamChan on the thread Prepare to file or something.

pasting below.
As the dates are expected to move fast for the next few months, lets prepare for the documents required to file 485.

The following is a generic list of documents required for applying for 485/AoS application:

Form I-485
Birth Certificate
Copy of Passport page with nonimmigrant visa
Color photographs as per new guidelines
Fingerprints ( USCIS will notify when and where to provide finger Print)
Fee : Non refundable Fee: $985( Effective Nov, 23, 2010) by check or money order
Form G-325A, Biographic Information (for those between the ages of 14 and 79 years)
Employment Letter - on employer's letterhead. This letter should confirm that the job on which the visa petition is based is available to you and it should mention your salary.
Copy of your I-797 Notice of Action, showing that your I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker, has been received or approved by INS (As of July 31, 2002, an interim rule published in the Federal Register allows for concurrent filing of Form I-485 with Form I-140, if a visa number is immediately available)
Form I-693, Medical Examination of Aliens Seeking Adjustment of Status. ( Must be completed by the USCIS authorized physician)
Form G-28 Notice of Entry of Appearance as Attorney or Representative. This will enable your lawyer to represent you.
Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization or EAD ( Optional, if you want Employment Authorization while the case is pending)
Form I-131, Application for Travel Document ( Optional, if you want Travel document in case may have to travel out of USA while case is pending)
You might be required to submit copies of marriage or divorce certificate, death certificate (of spouse), birth certificates for children and certified copies of any arrests or criminal records, depends on your case.

[Pdmar08]

Makes Sense, thank you for the prompt response.

[imdeng]

EB3I IS actually moving faster than just 2.8K/year. In last one year, EB3I inventory has gone down from 59K to 53K - double the usual county quota. Even with people falling out from inventory with porting, a 2.8K quota per year does not do much for the really dense 2002/2003 for EB3I.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

[GhostWriter]

imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.

Another interesting tidbit from Ron Gotcher. Someone asked him about demand in 2008, 2009 PDs. He said the following:



I am not sure where that 70% figure came from. If that number is high enough (even if not 70%) then that will explain why USCIS is seeing low 485 demand this FY.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.c...t=15693&page=2

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

[dorais]

I looked at Ron Gotcher's response too and it was very interesting.

If we assume that the next visa bulletin would be released on 13th Jan, what new information would the CO have that would help him make his decision?

Thanks.

[kd2008]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

[zenmaster]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

Kd, I think the "very poor" conversion in 2008 actually could be true. My reasoning would be that 2008/09 were worst hit years w.r.t. recession(loosing/changing jobs). It is very much possible that people had to change employers even before filing/approval of I-140. There wont be much final demand in such a scenario.

Just chipped in with my 2 cents. I am sure S,Q,T,V have much better thoughts on this.