EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vchirakala]

How about pD 04/18/2008 ??

[jkrocks]

I think this is my 3rd post:-) in my first post i said July 2008 ..and it moved to March 2008 ..Now i am thinking it will be July 2008 ..Reason - It is a just a gut feeling based on what we see from last bulletin, CO did clearly mention that Jan/Feb bulletins would be similar to DEC and will eventually retro..in Summer 2008 based on that i think it should go another 6-7 months ..So no worries for now..Good luck to everyone!:-) PUSH-->"Pray Untill Somethings Happens"

[sreddy]

I don't think July 2007 cases were processed from 2011 demand. If you look back into history, while cases of April 2007 were being processed we got signal saying Visa numbers for 2011 are done (that's when our gurus said "Sleep until next March/April").

I agree with you on one point. There is no demand data to predict clear cut movement. But our indications show data is not too low to show great movement after April 2007. On the other hand, current forward movement is for demand generation. So Mr.CO can simply say i want to see numbers in demand until Q2 of 2013 or little more. It's all matter of issueing EADs for now any way, so nobody is going to question him. He even indicated dates may retrogess towards summer 2012.

This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

[wantgcnow]

Once demand deta comes out..we could easily judge the movement

[soggadu]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

[Tomtuat]

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again

[vizcard]

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again

With NVC receipts rule of thumb is 12 months. so if he got his NVC fee notice in May 2011 that means his PD should be current by May 2012...not necessarily in the Jan VB. That being said, the general consensus is June 30,2008 by Mar and then retrogression. Could CO do another 3 month move? sure... but that would be mildly surprising to me.

FYI - we know of a 9/11/2008 PD fee notice (identified in Nov).

[pch053]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

Yes, I think after fingerprinting and name check is completed, one's application is ready for approval, assuming visa numbers are available and all other documents (birth certificate, medical tests, etc) are in place. In the past few years, we have seen lots of EVL related RFEs but those were primarily because of the long gap between I485 submission and approval when the individual has switched jobs using AC21. I doubt we will see any similar RFEs from now onwards as the I485 applications will be relatively fresh when it is ready for approval. I think we all have seen multiple theories floating around on how USCIS approves applications if PDs are current based on Notice Date, Receipt date, etc but I am not sure whether at all there is a given pattern for the same.

[Dec13th2007]

folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

[indiasunil]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

[romanitaly]

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks

folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

[nishant2200]

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks

G1145 probably. I missed it too.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-at-lockboxes

[nishant2200]

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

[qesehmk]

Team

We made one donation $75. And we will make one more in next couple of days.
Please suggest any charities for next month in the donations thread
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e&goto=newpost

[Reader]

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

[Karma1979]

you can simply ask your lawyer to provide the tracking number as they always send such important documents via registered mail.

[nishant2200]

Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

From Sunil's post, one may infer potentially that if you got EAD/AP card, you are all set and just waiting for visa number. Hence I was clarifying that we should not think like that, I am sure Sunil or his lawyer didn't mean that either. We may know about pre-adjudication, if you case has fallen out of the processing times of the service center it is at, and you can take an infopass appointment, to ask about the status. This is what I have inferred from posts by people, I have not asked lawyer about it, as I don't want to bother him unnecessarily for hypothetical scenarios.

[harick]

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

I have the same understanding until I read couple of posts in Nov EB2I filers thread in trackitt yesterday.

Yesterday I saw two posts from NSC applicants in that thread. They said they received email confirmations for I765 (EAD) approval. One person got approval even before finger printing, the other person got approval two days after the finger printing is done.

[vizcard]

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

[pdmay2008]

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

Are we close to get Demand data and Visa Bulletin. Really hoping for at least 2 months movement.

[kumarbos]

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?

[ramchand]

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder . I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

[SaturnRing]

By no means I am a Guru, but taking a stab at your PD, with current yr's Spill over, we will be clearing only till Mar 2008 and considering an approximate Spill over of 25 - 30 K next yr, and ~2.5k demand per month till Mid 2008 and ~1.5 - 2K demand per month starting mid 2008 till mid 2009, you might get through in the next yr intake. Meaning, you might be current befor Feb 2013 - Apr 2013.

Thats all assuming 3012 doesn't pass. If that passes, you might get through earlier than that.

[bieber]

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

[vizcard]

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.