EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?

Based on what I read on other forums they dont retain passport in every case. And thats what the 'catch' I was mentioing about in my post.

[Reader]

Deleted......

[romanitaly]

I have my approval notice that I received along with my EAD (OPT) but my lawyer did not include it in my i-485 packet.
--

Your EAD data should be sufficient for USCIS to trace your info in their database. If I were you I wouldn't be afraid about missing that document.

[krodhityogi]

"Job Title" Question:
Folks, since we are asking questions on completing the different forms, I had one on filling out the Job Title in the G325A/I-485 form. My job title on 485 is going to be different from what I put in my PERM application. However, the Job Duties and location are similar. Is this going to be a problem? Anything extra that I need to do to alleviate the risk of an RFE because of this? I looked up on Google, but wanted to see if people here have any first hand info.
Thanks in advance.
Regards

[mygctracker]

My Lawyer asked for latest W2, latest Tax Returns and 2 months Pay slips.

Hope it helps.

Based on what I have read, joint tex returns are good to have (not essential) if you have a spouse as dependent. Recent pay stubs are good to have along with EVL. W2s, though not essential again, are a small bit of paper with significant information - so good to have again. I would rather that you have more supporting docs (well arranged, with a good cover letter listing them in order) than get an RFE for something.

[imdeng]

Based on my recent interactions with VFS for my own passport retained by the US Embassy for visa correction - the Embassy will NOT keep your passport if you ask them to return it to you. In case you ask for your passport back then once they have finished their process - then they will ask you to resubmit your passport for necessary action.

If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?

[Waiting4Ever]

Where is the reference to HR 3012? I read through the entire article and couldn't find the reference.

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...011-11-15.html Latest newsletter. There is talk of HR 3012 becoming law!!

[soggadu]

gurus.... please advice on this....
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3879#post13879

[tackle]

What your lawyer sent you is accurate. But if you are married for less than 2 years, you need 2 documents from the following:

If you have been married for less than two years and your spouse is applying for Adjustment of Status with you,
USCIS will require documentation to verify that you have entered into and that you currently maintain a valid
marital relationship. If you have been married for less than two years, please also submit to us with your
documentation the following items:
1) Documentation showing joint ownership of property (if applicable);
2) A lease showing joint tenancy of a common residence (if applicable);
3) Documentation showing commingling of financial resources, which could include income tax returns, bank
and credit records;
4) Birth certificates of children born to you and your spouse (if applicable); and
5) Evidence of co-participation of medical or life insurance in the same insurance plan.
--------------------------------

This is interesting. I've never seen this mentioned anywhere. Can you please give me a reference for this? Was this mentioned by your lawyers or is this specified in any official USCIS documents?

[tonyromo]

Teddy/KD, my understanding from previous discussion on the forum was that for 2007 spec/veni/others used EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40. So with 60:40 ratio in the first half of 2007 we have PERM = number of I-485, we should have more I-485 per perm if that ratio increases to 70:30 or say 75:25.

Now I want to present some more interesting data which solidifies that we have 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio even in first half of 2007 and not 60:40. So your point that this does not cancel each other may be true. I think we should only concentrate on EB2:EB3 ratio for India as for china the ratio I calculated turned out to be 86:14. I took data from Jan 5 inventory.

p.s : We need to take this data with a pinch of salt as Spec always tells us inventory do not represent whole universe of demand. CP cases as well as those in local offices are not counted in the inventory.

---------------EB2-I-----EB3-I-----EB23I-------EB2I %-----------EB23IC----EB2IC%
Oct----------1747------1043------2790--------0.626164875----3639-------0.681231107
Nov---------1737------1181------2918--------0.595270733----3680------0.65326087
Dec---------1881------1045------2926--------0.642857143----3779------0.701508336
Jan----------1540------693-------2233--------0.689655172----2960------0.741216216
Feb---------1444------650-------2094--------0.689589303----2791------0.737728413
Mar---------1404------651-------2055--------0.683211679----2834------0.736062103
Apr---------1420------590-------2010--------0.706467662----2675------0.758504673
May-------- 1070------567-------1637--------0.653634698----2217------0.716734326
Jun-------- 1272------486-------1758--------0.723549488----2390------0.765690377

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0

[tonyromo]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

Friends many of you have questions on the current trend. Here are my thoughts. Thanks to Veni & Spec for the perm data compilation and to Nishant2200, Suninphx, Kd2008, Kanmani and most importantly tonyromo for all their thoughts and calculations The summary below is a product of collective efforts..
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 2.5K in Nov, interestingly China was higher than India which is also fine because China had higher filing by NIW in Jul 2007 than India.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less. The perm computations suggest that they may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. So lets approximate this to 2500 per month. With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD.
- I believe there is a very realistic chance of another forward movement in the next VB anywhere from 2-4 months based on 5-10K additional intake.
- Some of you have questions when I will get my GC; I believe realistically it should take 3 months for the batch that filed in Oct 2011. For the rest I believe the dates will certainly have to be retrogressed for orderly approval by PD. We would start to see the approvals for the Oct 2011 batch by Dec 2011.
I would encourage everyone to freely post their observations, findings and experiences which could help all of us to know what is happening, especially approvals.

[imdeng]

I saw the same argument on trackitt - but I do not see the linkage between EAD and PD movement. In fact, DoS (which sets the PD) has nothing to do with EAD (which exists in USCIS universe). Had EAD been valid for 5 years, would DoS be looking to keep a 5 year demand?? Not really - so why two years. I believe the purpose of the current buildup is to finish the FY smoothly without any spillover related visa wastage. For doing that CO needs one years demand plus a buffer. If you think that EB2I will get a max of say 35K in a year, plus 5K buffer - then you have a projected buildup of 40K. Building any more is not necessary and does not fit with the generally agreed cautious nature of CO's decision making so far.

I imagine the pattern is set as follows:

A) Keep an inventory of 30-40K for USCIS to pre-adjudicate by say Mar of every year
B) Do Quarterly (or monthly, or continuous, who knows what is happening this year) spillover to avoid sudden spike in consumption
C) Use up as much inventory as possible to ensure no visa number being wasted in the fourth quarter spillover to end the FY smoothly
D) Use the first few months on the FY (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) to build up an inventory of 30-40K
E) Move to Step A

This is a healthy pattern which meets everybody's needs within the current context. I think CO's office has handled this beautifully so far.

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

[tonyromo]

Thanks imdeng for detailed explanation ! It makes sense.

I saw the same argument on trackitt - but I do not see the linkage between EAD and PD movement. In fact, DoS (which sets the PD) has nothing to do with EAD (which exists in USCIS universe). Had EAD been valid for 5 years, would DoS be looking to keep a 5 year demand?? Not really - so why two years. I believe the purpose of the current buildup is to finish the FY smoothly without any spillover related visa wastage. For doing that CO needs one years demand plus a buffer. If you think that EB2I will get a max of say 35K in a year, plus 5K buffer - then you have a projected buildup of 40K. Building any more is not necessary and does not fit with the generally agreed cautious nature of CO's decision making so far.

I imagine the pattern is set as follows:

A) Keep an inventory of 30-40K for USCIS to pre-adjudicate by say Mar of every year
B) Do Quarterly (or monthly, or continuous, who knows what is happening this year) spillover to avoid sudden spike in consumption
C) Use up as much inventory as possible to ensure no visa number being wasted in the fourth quarter spillover to end the FY smoothly
D) Use the first few months on the FY (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) to build up an inventory of 30-40K
E) Move to Step A

This is a healthy pattern which meets everybody's needs within the current context. I think CO's office has handled this beautifully so far.

[veni001]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

tonyromo,
Since we don't have any precedence for this kind of intake, it's any one's guess until we see EB2 retro at some point or some insight from CO in the VB.

[Jonty Rhodes]

In future, this may increase the backlog for China in EB categories along with India. I think making HR 3012 Bill in to a law makes even more sense. I hope that someone makes house and senate members aware of the number of international students from India and China in US compared to the yearly green cards they can get under these unfair country caps.

The math is simple. More students from India and China = More Indian and Chinese students applying for jobs in US companies = Requirement of higher number of green cards for India and China. This is no rocket science and anybody with a sane mind should be able to understand it.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/10732835.cms

[vizcard]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

30K is a rounding of expected SOFAD... ~24.5K SO and 5.6K alloted. A higher or lower SO or additional buffer will move that number up or down. As Veni pointed out, there is no precedent for this but it logically makes sense.

[Nishant_imt]

here is what i brought back from my lawyer today.


1. i can get h1 extended in any case based on approved i 140.... whether i work for same organization or a new one. that too in any state.

2. if i move back to Richmond before 485 is filed, my greencard processing is valid. this is even after branch office is closed because the address while filing was that of the client location which still exists.

3. she suggested to file another labor right away from my current location which also happens to be my company's headquarters. once new 140 is approved, both will be valid and i will be able to capture my priority date.

4. if i decide to be back to Richmond, i don't necessarily work for the same client, even though that's the address on my previous filing.

thanks deepak , i am also going to get in touch with my lawyer on Monday. in the mean while keep me updated if you learn anything new.

Originally Posted by dce.deepak
Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[qesehmk]

Great! Thanks for sharing.

here is what i brought back from my lawyer today.


1. i can get h1 extended in any case based on approved i 140.... whether i work for same organization or a new one. that too in any state.

2. if i move back to Richmond before 485 is filed, my greencard processing is valid. this is even after branch office is closed because the address while filing was that of the client location which still exists.

3. she suggested to file another labor right away from my current location which also happens to be my company's headquarters. once new 140 is approved, both will be valid and i will be able to capture my priority date.

4. if i decide to be back to Richmond, i don't necessarily work for the same client, even though that's the address on my previous filing.

[imdeng]

The proportion of students that go back after graduating is considered quite high for China compared to India. Plus, Chinese students usually look for PhD+Academia+EB1 route rather than MS/MBA+IT/Businesses+EB2 route that Indian students usually take. Although the math is still undeniable, EB category will remain an India+China+EverybodyElse scenario. HR3012 makes complete sense for this context.

In future, this may increase the backlog for China in EB categories along with India. I think making HR 3012 Bill in to a law makes even more sense. I hope that someone makes house and senate members aware of the number of international students from India and China in US compared to the yearly green cards they can get under these unfair country caps.

The math is simple. More students from India and China = More Indian and Chinese students applying for jobs in US companies = Requirement of higher number of green cards for India and China. This is no rocket science and anybody with a sane mind should be able to understand it.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/10732835.cms

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy/KD, my understanding from previous discussion on the forum was that for 2007 spec/veni/others used EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40. So with 60:40 ratio in the first half of 2007 we have PERM = number of I-485, we should have more I-485 per perm if that ratio increases to 70:30 or say 75:25.

Now I want to present some more interesting data which solidifies that we have 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio even in first half of 2007 and not 60:40. So your point that this does not cancel each other may be true. I think we should only concentrate on EB2:EB3 ratio for India as for china the ratio I calculated turned out to be 86:14. I took data from Jan 5 inventory.

p.s : We need to take this data with a pinch of salt as Spec always tells us inventory do not represent whole universe of demand. CP cases as well as those in local offices are not counted in the inventory.

---------------EB2-I-----EB3-I-----EB23I-------EB2I %-----------EB23IC----EB2IC%
Oct----------1747------1043------2790--------0.626164875----3639-------0.681231107
Nov---------1737------1181------2918--------0.595270733----3680------0.65326087
Dec---------1881------1045------2926--------0.642857143----3779------0.701508336
Jan----------1540------693-------2233--------0.689655172----2960------0.741216216
Feb---------1444------650-------2094--------0.689589303----2791------0.737728413
Mar---------1404------651-------2055--------0.683211679----2834------0.736062103
Apr---------1420------590-------2010--------0.706467662----2675------0.758504673
May-------- 1070------567-------1637--------0.653634698----2217------0.716734326
Jun-------- 1272------486-------1758--------0.723549488----2390------0.765690377

Tony I have always believed in the 75 - 25 EB2 - Eb3 ratio. The data for the first half of 2007 showed an excellent correlation of 1 between perm and I485 as you tabulated. The ratio of 1 also indicates that significant demand destruction is always in play. I believe higher demand destruction post Jul 2007 will be compensated by higher NIW due to slow perm + higher EB2 - EB3 ratio. The ratio of Eb2 to Eb3 definitely becomes more skewed when there is higher demand from China. 30K is the estimated SOFAD for FY 2011 and under the expectation that we may see similar SOFAD this year that becomes the implicit ball park target for the intake. Let’s see how well the 2.5K per month all inclusive estimate works out by looking at some of the inventories / demand data releases assuming no approvals occur.

[polapragada]

Guys .. My friends PD is Aug 04, 2007 filed back in 2007..application is in pre adjudicated status..He did not get the approval yet..
So he is pressing all panic buttons! Any advise? Have you guys seen any AUG, 2007 approvals?

And In trackit I am not seeing any approvals from last 4-5 days...Does this mean the regular quota of numbers comes to an end for the season and have to wait till yearly/next quarter SO happens?

[tackle]

Guys .. My friends PD is Aug 04, 2007 filed back in 2007..application is in pre adjudicated status..He did not get the approval yet..
So he is pressing all panic buttons! Any advise? Have you guys seen any AUG, 2007 approvals?

And In trackit I am not seeing any approvals from last 4-5 days...Does this mean the regular quota of numbers comes to an end for the season and have to wait till yearly/next quarter SO happens?

So, he became current on Nov 1? It has only been couple of weeks. I understand that his application is already in pre adjudicated status. Still, in my opinion, 2 weeks is hardly any time for the visa numbers to drip through the bureaucracy.

[suninphx]

Tony I have always believed in the 75 - 25 EB2 - Eb3 ratio.The data for the first half of 2007 showed an excellent correlation of 1 between perm and I485 as you tabulated. The ratio of 1 also indicates that significant demand destruction is always in play. I believe higher demand destruction post Jul 2007 will be compensated by higher NIW due to slow perm + higher EB2 - EB3 ratio. The ratio of Eb2 to Eb3 definitely becomes more skewed when there is higher demand from China. 30K is the estimated SOFAD for FY 2011 and under the expectation that we may see similar SOFAD this year that becomes the implicit ball park target for the intake. Let’s see how well the 2.5K per month all inclusive estimate works out by looking at some of the inventories / demand data releases assuming no approvals occur.

That's big assumption IMHO...but we can go with that till we see actual data.

[Jan2008]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response

One more question, Can my spouse travel on EAD/ AP? She holds an H1.. came here on H4 but like me never visited India. Has pretty clean record with working with a good firm. Do you see any issue here?

[TeddyKoochu]

That's big assumption IMHO...but we can go with that till we see actual data.

I agree we really need to see the actual data, you would agree that early 2007 did also see demand destruction if we assume a significantly higher destruction post Jul 2007 the ratio goes below 1 and we IMHO enter very optimistic territory. Agree let’s see how 2.5K (All inclusive) flat per month works out.