EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

Based on what I have read, joint tex returns are good to have (not essential) if you have a spouse as dependent. Recent pay stubs are good to have along with EVL. W2s, though not essential again, are a small bit of paper with significant information - so good to have again. I would rather that you have more supporting docs (well arranged, with a good cover letter listing them in order) than get an RFE for something.

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

[suninphx]

BTW - for some reason, some posters on trackitt forums consider our forum to be inaccurate. It doesn't bother me - but I don't think this is warranted. We are a fact based discussion group and our assumptions are all laid out in public and discussed. After that if predictions are not accurate - it is because of the inherent systemic issues with the process and not the analysis. Even then, I don't think we have been any more off the mark than any other source. If anything, IIRC, Teddy nailed down the end of FY PD and Q has been correct about by when the pipeline needs to be filled.

Same set of people are predicting dates to move into early 2010 by end of FY 2012. So you know how much 'weighatage' to give their opinions [:d]

[geevikram]

Guys, maybe it's time to update the first page with latest predictions. Mar'08 is no longer a prediction, it is a fact. Just my .04$.

[bieber]

Monica,

someone in our forum posted that he/she had Sept2008 PD and his friend/co-worker with same PD received NVC notice because for some reason their lawyer had his friend in CP

here is the post and link

la_2002_ch
Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).


http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=6687#post6687

[Jonty Rhodes]

Came across these news.

New ImmigrationTracker Visa Bulletin Report Enables a Head Start of up to 15 Days in Filing Green Card Petitions

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...web8894626.DTL

I don't know whether the tracker would be just predicting an advancement of the date with an inbuilt software program or whether it would provide attorneys or HR, a real time information of the advancement of PDs 15 days earlier than visa bulletin release. If it is only meant to do prediction, than it is just another way to make money for the company. Anyways, I shared it as I thought it was interesting.

Second article is for people in EB3 category whose children is more than 21 years old and had their AOS (I-485) filed in 2007 when they were less than 21.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2011,1026-mehta.shtm

[ontheedge]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

It is advisable to send these documents as they also serve as a proof of continued employment. I'm quite surprised that these (at the very least paystubs) are not mandatory.

[Waiting4Ever]

This kind of makes sense with stated assumptions. But am curious how does this projection alter with Fairness act(I have my hopes pinned on it)?
Another question, How are the PERM's faring from June 2010 to July 2011? Where do you get that data from?

Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.

Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!

So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.

I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.

FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.

Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.

I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k

So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.

If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.

I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.

Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.

[grnwtg]

My lawyer also asked for same, they did not include tax return/pay stubs/schools certificates( thought she said would exame that and let me know if i need affidavit or not as my BC registration date was june 2007 and my wife parents does not have last name in the BC).

Note: probably we need to move this discussion to I485 thread, any moderator if you agree please move this to I485 documents thread.

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

[tackle]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

These are the documents that my lawyers sent:
Primary Applicant:

• Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
• Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
• Forms G-28 and I-765
• Forms G-28 and I-131
• I-140 Approval Notice
• Letter from applicant's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
• Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
• Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
• Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.
  
  • Copy of I-20 forms (both: The initial one with SEVIS barcode & the second one that was issued when applying for OPT)
  • Copy of EAD from OPT
  • Copy of all H1-B approval notices.
  
  
• Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
• Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
• Six passport photos.

Dependant

• Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
• Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
• Forms G-28 and I-765
• Forms G-28 and I-131
• Spouse's I-140 Approval Notice
• Letter from applicant's spouse's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
• Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
• Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
• Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.
  
  • Copy of H4 extension approval notice.
  
  
• Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
• Copy of applicant's marriage certificate.
• Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
• Six passport photos.

As you can see, no pay-stubs or w2 forms were included. So, if your lawyers say they are not needed, then don't worry about it.

[GCKnowHow]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

I think W2 is not mandatory for I-485, but most people send it though. The reason why its not mandatory is employment based GC is for future employment. It's ironic that people leave as soon as GC process completes. Gurus, Am I right???

[srd4gc]

FYI...my lawyer asked for w2 and paystubs...i guess it's not compulsory but some lawyers request these docs as a backup or they are trying to ensure we don't get an RFE...

[vizcard]

I wouldn't send anything more than asked for upfront. You have to assume that the lawyers know what they are doing (although sometimes its really hard ... Fragomen I'm talking to you). There's no harm in keeping the extra docs (paystubs, tax returns, etc) ready but don't send them unless asked for. I know I would be pissed off if someone sent me more than I asked for and have to take them out myself.

[ravisekhar]

I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result



Employment Authorization Info

[vizcard]

I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result



Employment Authorization Info

Follow up question - Do we absolutely need the 797 that came with the OPT or will the EAD card be sufficient ? I don't have my 797 for the OPT EAD

[qesehmk]

Was in same situation a while back. And the answer is yes.

I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result

Employment Authorization Info

Folks .... updated the header with my latest understanding. I haven't yet looked at the YTD consumption .... it is a bit early to do that anyway. Will take a look at consumpion trned and update in 2 weeks.

[qesehmk]

Your EAD data should be sufficient for USCIS to trace your info in their database. If I were you I wouldn't be afraid about missing that document.

Follow up question - Do we absolutely need the 797 that came with the OPT or will the EAD card be sufficient ? I don't have my 797 for the OPT EAD

[ravisekhar]

Was in same situation a while back. And the answer is yes.





Folks .... updated the header with my latest understanding. I haven't yet looked at the YTD consumption .... it is a bit early to do that anyway. Will take a look at consumpion trned and update in 2 weeks.

qesehmk,
If i say yes, where does the info for the questions( 1)Applied USCIS Office 2)Applied Date 3) Result) come from EAD(OPT) or Current H1B

[parsvnath]

What your lawyer sent you is accurate. But if you are married for less than 2 years, you need 2 documents from the following:

If you have been married for less than two years and your spouse is applying for Adjustment of Status with you,
USCIS will require documentation to verify that you have entered into and that you currently maintain a valid
marital relationship. If you have been married for less than two years, please also submit to us with your
documentation the following items:
1) Documentation showing joint ownership of property (if applicable);
2) A lease showing joint tenancy of a common residence (if applicable);
3) Documentation showing commingling of financial resources, which could include income tax returns, bank
and credit records;
4) Birth certificates of children born to you and your spouse (if applicable); and
5) Evidence of co-participation of medical or life insurance in the same insurance plan.
--------------------------------

These are the documents that my lawyers sent:
Primary Applicant:

• Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
• Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
• Forms G-28 and I-765
• Forms G-28 and I-131
• I-140 Approval Notice
• Letter from applicant's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
• Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
• Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
• Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.
  
  • Copy of I-20 forms (both: The initial one with SEVIS barcode & the second one that was issued when applying for OPT)
  • Copy of EAD from OPT
  • Copy of all H1-B approval notices.
  
  
• Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
• Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
• Six passport photos.

Dependant

• Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
• Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
• Forms G-28 and I-765
• Forms G-28 and I-131
• Spouse's I-140 Approval Notice
• Letter from applicant's spouse's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
• Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
• Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
• Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.
  
  • Copy of H4 extension approval notice.
  
  
• Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
• Copy of applicant's marriage certificate.
• Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
• Six passport photos.

As you can see, no pay-stubs or w2 forms were included. So, if your lawyers say they are not needed, then don't worry about it.

[srd4gc]

I know we don't have to pay for the EAD for the first time as the 485 fees would cover EAD and AP. Could someone please let me know how many years the first time EAD would be valid for?

[Jan2008]

Just by receiving EAD/AP you dont move into that status unless you change form (I dont recollect exact name of the form...but this is form you fill with HR when you joj company or when alien's status chanegs) to reflect this change. Why not attempt stamping H1 and keep EAD/AP as backup? Also, please make sure you check all your options with a competent immigration lawyer.

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response

[nayekal]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response

This is what I found through my Attorney...
If you don't H1 Visa Stamp and you have got AP, he recommends me to go for Visa stamping. As per him, I can still use AP to come back, but after that I will be
considered as parolee and the expiry date of my legal status will be that of what I have got in my AP, but not H1.
This is ok, for guys with an expiration date on H1 lesser than the exp date on AP. You can as well apply for H1 using your I-140 and once you get a new H1, your status will change from parolee to H1.
But, if your AOS is under process when you are in parolee status, by chance (God forbid) AOS App is denied, then your AP will be canceled and you will start accruing out of status days.

[ravisekhar]

qesehmk,
If i say yes, where does the info for the questions( 1)Applied USCIS Office 2)Applied Date 3) Result) come from EAD(OPT) or Current H1B

To answer my own question. The information should be from EAD(OPT)

[suninphx]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response

Hey np.

Only catch would be if you go for stamping and retain your passport. Let us all know what your lawyer adviced.

[asankaran]

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...011-11-15.html Latest newsletter. There is talk of HR 3012 becoming law!!

[vizcard]

If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?