EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[RMS_V13]

What perplexes me is..If you and I can do this calculation, would CO have not dont his homework?

He has visibility to the details(number of perms, EB3-Eb2 Split, porting etc) more than what we have and he has said "significant" fwd movement for another 2 months. He has kept up to his word so far.

[GhostWriter]

Yes, remember it and always admire it whenever i look at PERM data. It was observed by you and is the best rule of thumb for this entire process.

GhostWriter,
Looks like you still remember the discussion we had on this in the old thread. We beat this to death in last year's thread.

Nishant,
Either take Total PERM approved = EB2IC-485 demand, if not use EB2IC% from PERM, i140 denial ratio and dependent factor to derive EB2IC demand

I don't count porting in this calculations since my assumption is Porting-in = Porting-out (when you look at PERM numbers)

With the above assumption and the fact that PERM process is time consuming and expensive, you can ignore impact of multiple PERM cases on 485 demand.

[Nishant_imt]

So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a challenge

Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

[Nishant_imt]

Primary reason is that my consulting firm shut doors of its branch office in Richmond since the lost primary vendorship with the client and that's where I was place. So, even though the client has same position open, my company doesn't have an office in Richmond and they don't have that job for me. I am meeting my lawyer on Monday, will update you after that.

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

[qesehmk]

No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

pps - Veni and suninphx make a valid point. So I am assuming its the richmond office that sponsored your GC for richmond location as the base location and that is the office that is closed now.

So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?

[suninphx]

Deepak,
PERM is position and location specific. If the employer move employee from the initial location/job attested in PERM labor to a new location/job then employer need to start PERM process for the new location/position.

In case of H1B, employer need file LCA for each location, when employee is moved from the original job location attested in the initial filing.

Having said that, since GC is for future employment, if the employer is offering the PERM job position in the place where it was initially applied, upon receiving GC, then no need to start new PERM process. Usally this is confirmed by your employer in the employment offer letter submitted with your i485.

Agree with Veni. This is how consulting (small and big) companies operate. They show company address as base location and employee can take assignments across country making employee location irrelevant. Your current location and client has nothing dot do with PERM position. Company address used for PERM matters most IMHO.

[Nishant_imt]

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.

No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

[Gclongwait]

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a
challenge
Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

Nishant,
My understanding of this is different. I had asked my company lawyers this exact thing 2 years ago. I had an approved I 140 from company x and then moved to company y. I asked the company y lawyers if the existing I140 from company x can be used for 3 year extensions of H1 and her answer was "we have done it before". Please note I personally never did it because I got my new I 140 before I needed an H1 extension, but you may want to ask a lawyer this.

[qesehmk]

No worries. All the best!

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks nishant2200, Q, GClongwait, and everyone. I guess, I would be more clear after talking to my lawyer, but because of you guys, I have right questions to ask of her. Keep up the great job you do on this forum.

[dce.deepak]

Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Now that we are fine with 2.5k density as max, and 3k porting as max, and also the idea that CO wants 30k + buffer, we can redo the numbers done earlier.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 8.5k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, or did not show up in demand data, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 8500= 17,400 let’s consider 17.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional. This is now confirmed looking at aggressive movement.

To grab hence:
14.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Considering 2.5k max density, he needs further movement of 5.8 months i.e. 6 months

Now this is until the November VB. In Nov VB he already moved 4.5 months. The demand data can be ignored, it's negligible. Hence, for 30k + 5k buffer, he needs to move 1.5 months more, that will take him to 1st May 2008.

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

The 2.5K per month figure also includes porting baked in. The perm average is 2200 per month. Assuming roughly 3K porting I approximated the monthly number to 2500 just to simplify. Since porting also comes by gradually its probably ok to have it in the mix not ideal though.

So currently the trend is consumption = 8.5K, Intake 8 months = 2.5 * 8 = 20K. So the total is still less than 30K. So there appear to be strong chances of further forward movement by 2 - 4 months (5-10K buffer). Movement will not happen if CO is expecting less than 30K SOFAD or he wants to keep the buffer as 0. I would rate the chances of movement in the next bulletin as 50-50. It might be that the target is to match the NVC notices which came to people as far as June 2008.

[krodhityogi]

mygc,
can you not ask your Lawyer for just the A#? that is what i did while i was getting my i693 and she provided this info over email.

regards

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

[Nishant_imt]

thanks deepak , i am also going to get in touch with my lawyer on Monday. in the mean while keep me updated if you learn anything new.

Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you have questions on the current trend. Here are my thoughts. Thanks to Veni & Spec for the perm data compilation and to Nishant2200, Suninphx, Kd2008, Kanmani and most importantly tonyromo for all their thoughts and calculations The summary below is a product of collective efforts..
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 2.5K in Nov, interestingly China was higher than India which is also fine because China had higher filing by NIW in Jul 2007 than India.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less. The perm computations suggest that they may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. So lets approximate this to 2500 per month. With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD.
- I believe there is a very realistic chance of another forward movement in the next VB anywhere from 2-4 months based on 5-10K additional intake.
- Some of you have questions when I will get my GC; I believe realistically it should take 3 months for the batch that filed in Oct 2011. For the rest I believe the dates will certainly have to be retrogressed for orderly approval by PD. We would start to see the approvals for the Oct 2011 batch by Dec 2011.
I would encourage everyone to freely post their observations, findings and experiences which could help all of us to know what is happening, especially approvals.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

[dce.deepak]

Thanks Teddy, Veni, Q for taking time to reply..

Nishant,
you can read lot more about perm process details and prevailing wage here http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/faqsanswers.cfm
What I have understood till now is exactly what Teddy said above. PERM location is mainly for prevailing wage determination so if you are going to work at the same location (geographical area) after GC then it should be fine.
You can get details about prevailing wage and area here http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?ev...neral.dspLogin

There is also a murthy chat session on monday. I am going to ask her this question during that session.

[nishant2200]

Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.

Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!

So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.

I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.

FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.

Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.

I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k

So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.

If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.

I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.

Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.

[suninphx]

Ok guys. I have interesting observation to share. Credit to one of my team member.

So after dates moved in this VB obviously there was lot of excitement at workplace. Then discussion came to individual PDs. And interestingly in my team there are only 10% people with PD of 2008. Around 40% are 2007 or earlier and remaining 55% are 2009 onwards. So my question to you guys is what your team composition looks like in terms of PD mix?

PS: It's just a fun observation with no attempt to draw conclusions. At the same time I am curious to know what other Forum members team composition looks like? May be ..just may be it will present a different angle.

[familyguy]

Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem

Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

[chandrukv]

Friends,

I got current in Nov Bulletin. I applied for I-485 for my myself & my wife on November 3rd.

My Priority date is Sep 14 2007 which is specified correctly in my I-485 receipt.
In my Wife's I-485 receipt, Priority date is specified as Nov 3 2011(Same as the Received date) instead of Primary applicant Priority date.

Does any of you have similar discrepancy with dependent's priority dates in the receipts?

Thanks,

[manubhai]

[Moderators, please move/delete this after a few days]

HR 3012's companion bill, S. 1857, has just been introduced in the Senate Judiciary Committee. This will allow HR 3012 to pass the Senate quicker than if the companion bill had not been introduced.

Please show your support on PopVox and OpenCongress just as you all did for HR 3012.

Please note that this time around, the voices AGAINST these bills are much louder. It is even more important for us to do the little we can (as opposed to just talking about it here on the board).

POPVOX: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/s1857
OpenCongress: http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-s1857/show

And in case you missed voting for HR 3012 earlier, please do so now.
POPVOX: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr3012
OpenCongress: http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show

Please... "DO" the little you can to support this bill.

Thank you!

[TeddyKoochu]

Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem

Thanks, this is really very good to know.

Friends,

I got current in Nov Bulletin. I applied for I-485 for my myself & my wife on November 3rd.

My Priority date is Sep 14 2007 which is specified correctly in my I-485 receipt.
In my Wife's I-485 receipt, Priority date is specified as Nov 3 2011(Same as the Received date) instead of Primary applicant Priority date.

Does any of you have similar discrepancy with dependent's priority dates in the receipts?

Thanks,

Refer to the thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5-Filing/page2. Even my wife’s receipt has the RD as the PD. Looks like it’s a technicality nothing to worry.

[rahul2011]

Sorry for posting this in wrong email thread. MY Date is current in Dec Bulletin and i have few questions regarding my wife application in I485 Form.

My Wife is currently on H1 B Visa and Recently Her employer filed her extension and it is in Pending status ( old I94 was expired . She is on valid status and working on H1B Receipt Number)
In this situation what is the best answer to fill in I 485 Form for the questions "Current USCIS Status and Expires On" ?
Form : i-485
Part #1
"Current USCIS Status and Expires On"

[greenercard]

Hi,

I have been following this blog for a few weeks and still soaking in the details your members present. Most of it goes over my head! I can't believe this one usually doesn't show up in a typical Google search.

My GC EB2 India PD is 05/13/2008. Looking at the Dec bulletin, I'm hoping that I might be current in the next month or so.

My question is slightly off-topic but am hoping someone can guide me.

I was arrested back in 2001 while I was in college. Was charged with trying to break into a house, false accusation (right after 09/11 and all that). Spent a few days in jail waiting for the bail. The case was later dismissed, I think with a diversion. I remember having to write a paper as part of the diversion proceeding. I don't recall if I went ahead and had it expunged later or not.

I want to know what exactly about this case is needed to be submitted as part of my AOS application. This was so many years ago, I don't recall many details and also I don't live in the state where I was arrested. I called the circuit court and the district court of the county but the court clerks weren't able to pull any information based on my name/SSN etc., I know I had to get a document from that court 5/6 years ago when filing for either H1B or Perm. I got those docs form a friend at that time, but I'm not in touch with that friend now. I don't have that document anymore.

I'm not sure what to do now. If anyone has gone through submitting docs on a possibly expunged case, your help is appreciated. Also, would like to know any impact this may have on my application.

I haven't talked to a lawyer yet. The attorneys at work are supposed to take care of the filing - Fragomen. But, I believe they are rather busy with all the other cases right now I haven't been contacted yet.