EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Jonty Rhodes]

Q, I have a humble request. Please let us know how can we contribute monetarily to keep this site up and running. You, Veni, Spec, Teddy, Nishant and many significant others have been doing a wonderful job which is really helping a lot of people and I would feel really bad if along with doing all these, you guys are also shelling out of your pocket to maintain it. I was under the impression that sponsors take care of maintaining the site.

Certainly, I can not match you folks in data mining, calculations and predictions neither I intend to but at least I can contribute in whatever way I can to help out.

I think most of the visitors of this site will be willing to contribute. Please let us know.

Thanks again.

[qesehmk]

Leo / Jonty / Trident,

We are quite blessed to even have such people who offer to donate.

We are fine. We receive about 100 dollars per month in revenue. And that is ok for since we ourselves do the maintenance etc.

May be I can hire some professional help to maintain it and add some functionality. But in any case I can't accept donations since this site is technically not a 501C3 i.e. US non-profit (although we run it like one).

If you would like to donate - please donate to our charity of month (10-20-100 or even bigger!!). And if you choose to do so - please do let me know - I will mention your name on our website.

[gc_usa]

I had all docs ready before bulletin was released and as soon as it came out I sent to lawer and by end of the day he sent me all forms to make a print and sing. This weekend I will be doing medical and mid of next week all set.

[ontheedge]

I made sure my lawyer applied on the 21st and not 22nd. Applying on the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd usually results in this feeling of *just missing out* - PD dates usually stop of those dreaded days. Anyway, good luck, you will get your turn.

I know, hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately, back in 2008..I had no clue about the cut off date pattern. And the lawyer would not have listened to me anyway. I understand there is a huge chance of movement in the next bulletin so I am not that disappointed. What's another 30 days when we've waited so long?

The company lawyer INSISTS I am current. He says he been in this business for years and thats how they have always interpreted the cut off date!!
What will happen if I do file in December? Will the petition be denied?

[familyguy]

see this from bulletin:

"Only applicants who have a priority date earlier than the cut-off date may be allotted a number."

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5603.html

I know, hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately, back in 2008..I had no clue about the cut off date pattern. And the lawyer would not have listened to me anyway. I understand there is a huge chance of movement in the next bulletin so I am not that disappointed. What's another 30 days when we've waited so long?

The company lawyer INSISTS I am current. He says he been in this business for years and thats how they have always interpreted the cut off date!!
What will happen if I do file in December? Will the petition be denied?

[kd2008]

From http://immigration-law.com/

11/11/2011: Senate Version of the House H.R. 3012 Per Country Numberical Limitation Elimination Bill Introduced in the Senate Yesterday, 11/10/2011

One of the hottest House bills, H.R. 3012, was introduced by a Congressman from Utah on the House side. Now, a Republican Senator from the same state of Utah, Mike Lee, introduced S.1857 to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants and to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants. This bill may be a companion bill of the H.R. 3012 on the Senate side, which apparently was introduced yesterday in anticipation of House passing H.R. 3012 and reaching of the bill in the Senate soon. The full text has yet to be made available. Please stay tuned to this website for the full text of the Senate version.

Please discuss in the advocacy section.

[imdeng]

There already are a few posts on immigration forums from people with 2008 PDs who left the country and did not anticipate that EB2I will move this fast. The demand destruction is real and not insignificant. I would imagine though that a good fraction of people who have left will attempt to either come back (for AOS) or change to CP. Although there will be a time lag for the process - so it would still benefit the PD movement.

[suninphx]

There already are a few posts on immigration forums from people with 2008 PDs who left the country and did not anticipate that EB2I will move this fast. The demand destruction is real and not insignificant. I would imagine though that a good fraction of people who have left will attempt to either come back (for AOS) or change to CP. Although there will be a time lag for the process - so it would still benefit the PD movement.

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

[geterdone]

Is this going to be put for vote by senate or is it going to a Committee and the entire process starts again? if you look here it seems like it is going to be considred by committee- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s112-1857

From http://immigration-law.com/



Please discuss in the advocacy section.

[TeddyKoochu]

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

[suninphx]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

How easy it is to get approval thorugh NIW? When I read the criteria sometime back it looked quite stringent. I have no knowledge on how NIW works.

[suninphx]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

When you say this it carries a lot of weight. Will wait for your analysis. Thanks T!

[soggadu]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[asankaran]

Teddy, While I have lot of respect for you. I strongly disagree that monthly PERM count could be 2500. I believe going by what I see in trackitt, just around 200 cases filed between July to Nov 01 which could translate to around 1500 EB2 India cases. The total number of EB2 cases for 485 from July to December could be only around 3~4k. I am very eager to look at the parameters you consider when reporting PERM EB2 cases and also translation to 485. I would use factor of 1 as somewhere suggested by Veni.

Let's start getting bullish about the current state of affairs for EB2.

When you say this it carries a lot of weight. Will wait for your analysis. Thanks T!

[kd2008]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

Teddy,

Could you please let me know what do you think of the following?

EB2 IC I-485 demand = IC PERM approvals x 0.7 (for EB2) x 0.87 (I-140 approval rate) x 0.8 (catch all factor for duplicate PERMS, EB3-Eb2 upgrades etc) x 2.04 (no. of I-485 applications filed for I-140 approval)

This gives,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.9939 x IC PERM approvals

I guess what everyone is saying is that the above factor might be even less than that - 0.67 instead of 0.8 for the catch all factor due to demand destruction etc.

So,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.8323 x IC PERM approvals

[Pdmar08]

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

Q, can you please add EVL to the first post, i dont know what it means.

[Pdmar08]

qbf, i would also suggest to get it done without hurting any ones ego you are almost there. Stay under the radar, beg, borrow or steal(well as long as its postits) and get it done.

[chagas]

EVL = Employer Verification Letter

[Jonty Rhodes]

How easy it is to get approval thorugh NIW? When I read the criteria sometime back it looked quite stringent. I have no knowledge on how NIW works.

NIW is not as difficult as EB1 but it is still difficult to get through. I have many physician friends who work in underserved area. In fact, I am currently also working in an underserved area. Some of those friends have successfully obtained NIW. In fact, one of my colleague got her GC and she was in EB2 NIW category.

When I asked my lawyer to file for NIW, he advised me not to go that route because he told me that the criteria are more strict now, lot of RFEs are issued and denial rates are high. The applications are heavily scrutinized according to him.

He told me that NIW applications are compex, require lot of supporting documentations and I-140 approval can take anywhere from 6 months to 18 months under NIW since there is no premium processing available. Labor Certification is obviously waived but in terms of PD, candidates from EB2I and EB2C category do not get any benefit.

The benefits that NIW offer, which I think are huge, are:
1) You don't need an employer to sponsor your application
2) Since it is self-sponsored, jobs can be changed and you can still retain your PD provided you continue to serve in MUS (medically underserved) areas or HPSA (Health Professionals Shortage Areas) for total cumulative of 5 years. (Physicians only)

This is for physicians who usually make a bulk of NIW applications. But these days, that number is also going down compared to previous years because those applications are heavily scrutinized and denial rates are high according to my lawyer.

Now, obviously there is one Anesthesiologist whom I know who got NIW in Kansas City, MO by working in Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospital. If you are working at VA and has supporting letters from there, your chances of getting NIW approved are 99-100%. He had his I-140 approved in 4 months. Kansas City itself has a population of around 4,60,000 with urban area population 1.6 million and metro area population of 2.2 million. This is not an underserved area but than again he was working at VA.

I have another Psychiatrist physician friend who obtained NIW working 2 miles north of Chicago downtown (underserved?????) because that area was designated by Government (CMS - Combined Medicare and Medicaid Services) as medically underserved for psychiatric patient population.

My point is that these applications are tough, but there are legal and administrative loopholes which can work to an individual's benefit to get the approval.

Now, I don't know what are the NIW criteria for other occupations than physicians but anything related to NASA, Military, Government, Serving in minority dominant area (e.g. Native Americans in Appalachian region), National Institute of Health etc. would have higher NIW approval rates.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Could you please let me know what do you think of the following?

EB2 IC I-485 demand = IC PERM approvals x 0.7 (for EB2) x 0.87 (I-140 approval rate) x 0.8 (catch all factor for duplicate PERMS, EB3-Eb2 upgrades etc) x 2.04 (no. of I-485 applications filed for I-140 approval)

This gives,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.9939 x IC PERM approvals

I guess what everyone is saying is that the above factor might be even less than that - 0.67 instead of 0.8 for the catch all factor due to demand destruction etc.

So,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.8323 x IC PERM approvals

My factors may just be slightly different. We should all use different factors though based on our beliefs and convictions; however do let me know if any of my factors appear to be unrealistic I will correct them.
- Dependent factor I would use 2.25, More than 1 in 8 families have atleast 1 non US born child.
- .8 I would like to call the carry over factor this should include a) Demand Destruction b) I 140 denial c) New demand coming in via NIW for which there are no perms.
- EB2 - EB3 as .75 this is to account for invisible porting i.e. people post 2007 who are porting who may not ever have been inventoried.
This would make the multiplication factor 2.25 * .8 * .75 = 1.35.
The NIW usage cannot be neglected in Jul 2007 itself looks like 1000 485's may have originated from NIW as it does not require labor and people in 2008 are more likely to use it because perm was frozen. There maybe say 100 - 200 cases coming in every month due to NIW. Traditional porting we can assume at 3K (EB3 prior to Jul 2007).

[march272010]

Most of the Doctors apply both EB1 NIW & EB2 NIW parallelly for safe side as per lawyer advice. My friend applied for both and got both approved, this kind of small percentage of 140 should not be counted..this is just for your information

[cantwaitlonger]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 10th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Most of the Doctors apply both EB1 NIW & EB2 NIW parallelly for safe side as per lawyer advice. My friend applied for both and got both approved, this kind of small percentage of 140 should not be counted..this is just for your information

Agree, that percentage is very small.

[march272010]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

[imdeng]

Teddy - do we have any reliable way to calculate demand density? The 485 inventory can shed some light but that is not due for some months. 2500 EB2IC demand density is the steady state since that will result in one year movement every year considering a 30K SOFAD.

...
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend.
...