EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[bieber]

Nishanth

it's scary you remember that

I think there is a window of 3-4 months that good things happen and stall everything for may be an year or two, it's highly unlikely that they can gauge the exact demand based on filings (Teddy, how long it took you get the receipt number for 485), I don't even think they look at that number, based on CO words it looks like all it matters for him is documentarily qualified demand at this point, I have no clue how 8500+ visas are getting allocated in new fy already

[pdmay2008]

long time back, I clearly remmber, bieber had said that if people don't apply initially, they may get cheated to think very few applications, and open floodgates.

I think its not to estimate total number of applications, but maybe to make sure, that the trend they are expecting is holding. for example, if they receive 12k applications from Nov 1st to 10th, and their expectation for the total move was 10k in Nov VB, and 10k in Dec VB, then they may extrapolate that the Nov VB will in fact be getting them closer to 15k, and they only need 5k from Dec VB.

If he goes by demand data, with these many approvals there will be very less demand left to process. All these newly filed cases from Nov 1 are not considered under demand. Future demand + Left Over Demand+Buffer > Available VISA Numbers. This is what he should think now.

[nishant2200]

bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.

Nishanth

it's scary you remember that

I think there is a window of 3-4 months that good things happen and stall everything for may be an year or two, it's highly unlikely that they can gauge the exact demand based on filings (Teddy, how long it took you get the receipt number for 485), I don't even think they look at that number, based on CO words it looks like all it matters for him is documentarily qualified demand at this point, I have no clue how 8500+ visas are getting allocated in new fy already

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishanth

it's scary you remember that

I think there is a window of 3-4 months that good things happen and stall everything for may be an year or two, it's highly unlikely that they can gauge the exact demand based on filings (Teddy, how long it took you get the receipt number for 485), I don't even think they look at that number, based on CO words it looks like all it matters for him is documentarily qualified demand at this point, I have no clue how 8500+ visas are getting allocated in new fy already

Bieber I just filed on Nov 1st don't have anything yet. The current trend does point to a consumption of 6K last month and 2.5K this month if no PWMB’s get approved. Basically looks like all preadjudicated cases are done. What remains is pwmb for last month and Nov filers. I think they must be gauging the numbers at the lockboxes the receipts come later; most likely they will get 80% of the applications by Nov 10th.

[veni001]

Veni, I understand that your advice is that all the current approvals are from the 2012 cap. What are your thoughts is this QSP or just usage of the annual cap or a mix of both.

Teddy,
If they follow QSP then, based on 27% Q1 limit, say they have 8.1k for Oct (I am only counting EB1+EB2+EB5), let say 7.0k allocated for AOS(USCIS) and 1.1k to CP(DOS).

On day one most likely USCIS know documentarily qualified EB1/EB2 ROWMP/EB5 demand for that month, so they can apply other wise unused(for that month) to most retrogressed country by following SOFAD.

They could do the same for a week/day.

[iamdeb]

The upcoming IC Demand Data is expected to show Zero documentarily qualified .

What do you guys think?

What's the source of this information?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
If they follow QSP then, based on 27% Q1 limit, say they have 8.1k for Oct (I am only counting EB1+EB2+EB5), let say 7.0k allocated for AOS(USCIS) and 1.1k to CP(DOS).

On day one most likely USCIS know documentarily qualified EB1/EB2 ROWMP/EB5 demand for that month, so they can apply other wise unused(for that month) to most retrogressed country by following SOFAD.

They could do the same for a week/day.

Veni, thanks, this seems to be a very rational explanation. Also I believe now that the inventory shows even those I485 cases (Concurrent filing) where I140 is not approved otherwise if the I140 were to be approved for these there would be absolutely no reason not to approve them. I140 is the bottleneck for EB2 ROW and EB1. Good luck to you, you maybe greened later this month itself or worst case before the end of the year.

[veni001]

Veni, thanks, this seems to be a very rational explanation. Also I believe now that the inventory shows even those I485 cases (Concurrent filing) where I140 is not approved otherwise if the I140 were to be approved for these there would be absolutely no reason not to approve them. I140 is the bottleneck for EB2 ROW and EB1. Good luck to you, you maybe greened later this month itself or worst case before the end of the year.

Agree,

Thank you and let's hope USCIS is following QSP!

[nishant2200]

guys, can then this theory in old post have a chance of being correct. we may ignore the EB4 and EB5 from it if you don't think he wants to jump gun on that.

I am trying to formulate a theory to support your last part Q, as well as credit to Teddy on a conversation I had with him earlier today, and by this attempt to formulate a theory, try to explain the incredible phenomena of the Oct VB in which people are also getting green cards, not just date movement. Assuming by law, DOS
can only give 27% (is it 30%?) of all visas available in a category in the first three quarters max., following would be availability:

EB1: 10810 or 3603 a month
EB2: 10810 or 3603 a month
EB4: 2683 or 894 a month
EB5: 2683 or 894 a month

Total: 26986 a quarter, or 8995 a month

233 a month is already the normal quota for EB2IC.

Each month USCIS fails to produce adequate demand of non EB2IC, the unused numbers are given to EB2IC. This is monthly spillover, not even quarterly spillover, lets call for argument sake. Or at least if quarterly only, then each quarter, similarly all remaining is grabbed onto EB2IC. What has happened this FY 2012 so far, however, almost looks like monthly spillover, it is not QSP.

Now say DOS wants to always maintain a inventory of 20k (assuming 7k approvals of non EB2IC as worst case) to always remain ahead of the curve of 27k a quarter, hence the intent of keeping on moving dates. Anytime USCIS presents a substantial non EB2IC demand, or DOS feels they obtained 30k inventory, which is higher than the 26986 max a quarter, they pause or adjust the pace of the movement, cleverly done and based on amount of non EB2IC demand presented by USCIS, they might not even need retrogression. This way EB2IC keeps moving, inventory keeps getting built up, and based on non EB2IC demand by USCIS, adequate congestion control is done, any bursts of non EB2IC are accommodated and when the bursts go away, again same EB2IC picks up steam. It is a fair system IMHO. Visas are not wasted, current categories remain current, laws are followed, there is no mad rush anytime, EB2IC is not penalized for USCIS's failure to process other categories backlog consistently and then by them making up for it suddenly in last quarter like they did in last FY August. If they are applying this to EB4 and EB4 demand then keep in mind, this also takes away the possibility or at least reduces by great deal the quantum of EB1 backlog reduction cannibalizing EB5 and any possible EB4 SO from coming onto EB2IC.

this idea may be totally not right, but there might be some form of at least QSP in play to explain. only those who try, may fail, tear apart as you like

Teddy,
If they follow QSP then, based on 27% Q1 limit, say they have 8.1k for Oct (I am only counting EB1+EB2+EB5), let say 7.0k allocated for AOS(USCIS) and 1.1k to CP(DOS).

On day one most likely USCIS know documentarily qualified EB1/EB2 ROWMP/EB5 demand for that month, so they can apply other wise unused(for that month) to most retrogressed country by following SOFAD.

They could do the same for a week/day.

Agree,

Thank you and let's hope USCIS is following QSP!

[Kanmani]

What's the source of this information?

After seeing approvals of PDs July 15 2007 +++++ , I am assuming so .

[leo07]

You are right with this one. That is the reason, I was thinking(assuming) that CO might have allocated visas for these apps even before FY 2012 commenced. But again, the numbers don't support the assumption, plus there is no reason for CO to not move the dates in September itself if he was prepared for this movement.

He may have a tough time in any audit explaining that.

[leo07]

I can completely agree and relate to your statement Only thing that I may add is, my engineering years taught me the first three both in theory and practice

bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.

[bieber]

bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.

may be the it's not about what you learn in engineering, it could be about how you learned it, you graduated from art of learning which is helping you now

[cbpds1]

An old prof who was a tech head in a small firm said

Engineering is u learn how to learn !!

may be the it's not about what you learn in engineering, it could be about how you learned it, you graduated from art of learning which is helping you now

[leo07]

Did you see any of the PWMB's getting approved?

Today alone I saw more than 20 approvals on MITBBS. These guys have PD after 7/15. Looks like they are approving all the cases between 7/15-10/15.

[nishant2200]

may be the it's not about what you learn in engineering, it could be about how you learned it, you graduated from art of learning which is helping you now

I can completely agree and relate to your statement Only thing that I may add is, my engineering years taught me the first three both in theory and practice

credit due where it is. You guys are eye openers

yes, it was a tough grind. glad don't have to study anymore...

[veni001]

guys, can then this theory in old post have a chance of being correct. we may ignore the EB4 and EB5 from it if you don't think he wants to jump gun on that.

Nishant,
More or less we are re-iterating the same theory.

If QSP is correct then this could be very well!

[gc0907]

I think the only ones who would claim they are using the knowleged they gained during their college would be scientists and researchers.
Rest of the others mainly gain knowledge after they enter the industry.

An old prof who was a tech head in a small firm said

Engineering is u learn how to learn !!

[ram_40001]

Teddy,

Given all this data, when do you expect your green card in hand seeing as you filed in November?

[nishant2200]

agreed, this is not anything I or anyone invented. But at least the monthly application of it, that's what me and Teddy talked about sometime back, and today you kind of hinted or agreed upon.

This is amazing if true. I hope he continues.

Nishant,
More or less we are re-iterating the same theory.

If QSP is correct then this could be very well!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Given all this data, when do you expect your green card in hand seeing as you filed in November?

The current events are simply amazing. However couple of things still needs to happen. The numbers are being allocated like the free flow captain cook salt (Remember the ad from our school days). For all non Indian folks, Tata salt had a monopoly however it would get damped up, then this brand came up which would not dampen that easily, right now looks like free flow is happening to the visa numbers.
- PWMB batch from Oct is still waiting we may start to see their approvals later this month at the current rate. The dates if at all they retrogress should not go behind Aug 15th as there is nobody left there except for the PWMB's now.
- The Nov batch is actually far bigger I believe it’s a little early to say how this would work out unless we see the previous batch PWMB's being approved.
Good luck to all.

[nishant2200]

So looking at approval news finally coming in today, seems like the "allocation" mumbo jumbo has been dealt with by CO, and the demand data must be ready to upload on monday.

next it's anyone's guess how long he wants to wait before deciding on Dec VB.

[shaumack]

What you described makes mathematical sense Little too risky from CO's point of view, for allocating all 6k in the first quarter and opening a huge door for his opponents to attack him for the rest of 9 months.

I do not think so CO will ever try to game the system or do anything out of box unless he has approval from higher-ups. There is already some controversy about if DOS should even be allocated right to issue visas. As per HSA Act of 2002, DHS was supposed to have final approval over visa issuance and DOS was just suppose to work on their recommendation. In 2003, consensus was achieved among two departments and power were bestowed on DOS. After Dec 2009 Xmas plot, this was relooked into if DOS should be issuing visa numbers and is still in radar of many congress members. So CO will be careful about making any such exceptions which are against law that can ultimately cost him his job, as no visa issuance power with DOS means no job for him.

If any one interested they should read this article - http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonw...sasecurity.pdf

This article will also tell you how failed Dec 2009 XMas Plot to attack NW airline changed some bestowed powers that consular officers now have in consulate abroad. This is were all 221(g) started happening. Now officers at consulate can reverse any approvals made through USCIS that too with no question asked.

[doctorp]

it takes USCIS at least 10-14 days to sort things out and send a receipt number, so until that time there is no way they can communicate to the DOS/CO about demand for NOV, also from statements attributed to the CO, it seems he really does not care what the numbers are and will advance the dates anyways.
That makes it very surprising, they did not release the VB tonight, should we read anything to it?

[doctorp]

has anybody seen an overnight posting of VB.... or I am just being too desperate ?