EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Eb2_Dec07]

Happy Diwali Guys , let's hope after festival of lights we will see festival of PDs.



" Mere pass gaadi hein, bungalow hein , bank balance hein ...aye...tere paas kya hein ....I wanna be able to say " Mere paas GC hein aye .."

[ravisekhar]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.

just for informayion.My friend recently applied for I-485 and his check was encashed as an ACH debit.

[kingcaeser]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.

Guys, can I write personal checks to Department of Homeland Security for $1070 each (for me and my wife) or should they be cashiers checks?

[sreddy]

I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

[bieber]

I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

Even if they retrogress it will go to July15, 2007 at the most

[sandeep11]

Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??

I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

[vizcard]

My process is managed by Fragomen too. Just from experience with them, they are extremely cautious and conservative in their projections/ approach. They had some issues a few years ago which is why they are extra careful now. I'm not sure how they have any better info than others unless they know people in CO's department. Like Beiber noted, even it does retrogress, it won't be significant and will bounce back sooner rather than later.

[Kanmani]

I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf


Happy Diwali Friends

[nishant2200]

one day I don't check and Kanmani beats me to it

Now let's see what's it shows!

I am expecting the great Spectator to rise now, this will interest him.

I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf



Happy Diwali Friends

[nishant2200]

sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??

[nishant2200]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

[gcseeker]

Happy Diwali to you all.

Rightly said Nishant. The next two weeks are going to be tough . With all the theories floating around , do not want to get my hopes up too high.

I just wish even if it retrogresses ,CO continues with QSP/Pipeline building in the next ones. However it will be hard to digest if after all the positive news the Dec VB moves back.

Just lurking around and not posting much to soothe my nerves ...borrowing your strategy of looking at the previous release dates of the bulletins.I think the Dec VB will be out on Friday the 11th Nov.

Dec VB 2010-Released on Nov 10th (Wed)
Dec VB 2009-Released on Nov 9th (Mon)
Dec VB 2008-Released on Nov 6th (Thurs)
Dec VB 2007-Released on Nov 13th (Tue)
Dec VB 2006-Released on Nov 8th (Wed)

In any case the CO would have already made up his mind ...either to retrogress or advance till Jan 2008.

sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[vizcard]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2-3k? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

Help me understand how porting works.
Someone with EB3 has applied for 485 (in the 2007 fiasco) and is not current right now. He has EAD/ AP. If he ports, I'm guessing he has to file Labor, I-140 and I-485 again right? So what happens to his current EAD ? Does it get cancelled when he applies for the 485 again?

[sreddy]

I agree it won't go back too much, at least not below July 2007. Considering all are optimistic about forward movement in the next two VBs, backward movement so soon will be really hard for us to digest . As you said how would Fragomen know when CO himself may not have made up his mind about next month's movement yet. Are they talking based on any recent developments (like surge in 140 approvals) and using numbers? Or did they come to know anything about CO's new methodolgy that they used to make this forward movement last two months? Not sure..

My process is managed by Fragomen too. Just from experience with them, they are extremely cautious and conservative in their projections/ approach. They had some issues a few years ago which is why they are extra careful now. I'm not sure how they have any better info than others unless they know people in CO's department. Like Beiber noted, even it does retrogress, it won't be significant and will bounce back sooner rather than later.

[leo07]

as per the progression...throwing all theories and calculations out of the window, it must come on November 11th Friday

[grnwtg]

Oh my God, there are around 2k cases from 2006 for India from the October inventory and around 24k whole eb2...around 18k applications are reduced from last inventory, i am not sure if this is right..only 20% of application got cleared for April and May'2007.
This does not sound good future movement unless they want inventory

There are still 8.5 pending application for India.

Teddy/Veni Bhai loog...please give us ur insight

sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[meso129]

When one compares the june 2011 inventory v/s Oct inventory for EB2I the difference is 13571 which is what we got as SOFAD for FY2011. I am trying to understand why the Demand data used for determination of Nov 2011 bulletin says EB2I pending before Jan 1 2008 is 1275 The one on uscis inventory shows 8965. Why are these numbers too wide apart. DOS numbers are not just the consular posts but also includes cis numbers (thats what it says). Does anyone has any logical explanation.

[sandeep11]

Nishant Bhai,

I did feel a little disheartened for a bit...but you are right..It's Diwali Eve and I should probably forget about this VB stuff and enjoy.........

Happy Diwali!!!!!

Wishing everyone the Best of Luck.

Sandy-

sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[vizcard]

Oh my God, there are around 2k cases from 2006 for India from the October inventory and around 24k whole eb2...around 18k applications are reduced from last inventory, i am not sure if this is right..only 20% of application got cleared for April and May'2007.
This does not sound good future movement unless they want inventory

There are still 8.5 pending application for India.

Teddy/Veni Bhai loog...please give us ur insight

Sucks to be those folks from 2002 and before.

[bieber]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins

[veni001]

I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf

Happy Diwali Friends

Kanmani,
Great! Thank you

Happy Diwali to all.

[immi2910]

It looks like EB1 India will become backlogged as well. There are 2,263 applications pending in 2011 alone. It does not bode well for EB2 IC in future years.

[immi2910]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics . But I think you get the idea.
EDIT2: It turns out this report includes Primary as well as dependents (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...1857#post11857). So, the analysis is wrong.

[gc0907]

Guys, can I write personal checks to Department of Homeland Security for $1070 each (for me and my wife) or should they be cashiers checks?

Yes, personal check is fine. Here it says personal check or money order.

[Gclongwait]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins

I dont think so. I think PWMB's are counted in this inventory maybe?