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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #801
    Guys, just today a near by huge company, the number one biotech company in world, won't take names here, laid off people from its R&D department. My two friends in that department, luckily escaped, and they are current in Nov VB and are preparing to file 485. One more friend, got laid off, but had just got the GC 6 days back. Luck. But not everyone would have been so lucky in last few years, as well as the other reasons people have mentioned.

    One has to throw in a caution though, Spec has already baked in a drop off factor into the figures he has put up in facts and data, so it's not that we have not considered this.

    I feel bad for people who suffered layoff or left for various reasons if they were not happy about it, but it may very well be the big help we need this year. FY 2010 we got FB 10k surprise help, FY 2011 we got the EB1 12k help (I think EB2 ROW caught up with usage later on) and low SYAs, and FY 2012 may very well turn out to be the unexpected help due to bad economy and H1 scrutiny taking a toll right now as well as through last few years on folks not having protection of EAD/AP.

    For FY 2012, I still see Kazarian in place tormenting EB1A, EB1B, EB2 NIW. EB2ROW usage nothing has changed to suggest a dramatic surge in applications. EB5 US is trying to sell to people almost GC for money, smart investor will not put money in US right now, unless its throwaway cash and wants a backup for his kids in this country (read rich people in India and China). Doesnt look like USCIS is going great guns on 140 backlog at least right now. EB1C PP is not going to take place until next year. The EB1C PP and the 140 backlog reduction if happens, can cause problems.

    This is all just speculation, just few weeks back we were thinking of doomsday case this year, with barely 18k SOFAD coming up, only till Oct 1st 2007 getting GC and so on.

    We don't have data yet to speculate completely either way. Let's hope for the best.

    ps: Q, I am really enjoying the laddu. I always say to my friend, that if something unfortunate happens and I get kicked out, I will go as no choice, but otherwise I love USA.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

    As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-19-2011 at 09:32 PM.

  2. #802
    Quote Originally Posted by leo4ever View Post
    Q,

    If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

    I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....
    Sorry if I was not clear. I meant to say I just know 2 friends (firsthand info) who left US.
    Leo; EB2I; PD: 11/01/2008; NSC; MD: 01/03/2012; RD: 01/04/2012; ND: 1/12/2012; FP Scheduled: 02/22; EAD/AP: 02/22; CPO email: 03/09/2012; GC 3/15/2012; what next???? India Trip????

  3. #803
    Q, I just wish that the explanation you have provided regarding CO's methodical madness holds true. Abandonment of a big chunk of green cards may trigger larger VB movements and can help many people like me who are stuck in this backlog and may remain stuck for next 5-6 years. (My PD is 05/20/11 so obviously I wouldn't mind regular big movements)

    Sadly, there is no way to predict what is going on in CO's mind unless one is a Leonardo DiCaprio of Inception. And as qblogfan frequently says, CO does exactly opposite of what everyone is expecting. So I am not getting very optimistic but your logic behind this large scale EB2IC approval so early in the year is very palatable and I again hope your are right.


    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

    As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent

  4. #804
    I just don't understand why CO does not make the dates current? Accept applications, retrogress and you get FIFO. Everybody is happy.

    Yeah, there will be a huge burden on USCIS and it will create backlogs ..blah..blah blah. Like USCIS is really efficient and knows what it is doing. They have backlog problems in everything they do. I-485 filing pile up should be least of their worries.

  5. #805
    I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?

  6. #806
    Quote Originally Posted by mysati View Post
    I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?
    Also the reduction in demand data was more from India than from China.

    I agree, no one has any reasonable explanation as to what's going on. Currently only reasoning which seems to fit the bill is cleanup of inventory for "dead" 485s.

    1. Cannot be FY 2011 numbers, as numbers ran out on Sep 15th and reason cited was due to sudden demand shown by USCIS in august, which we know was for pending EB1 and EB2ROW
    2. Cannot be quarterly SO, as that happens after end of quarter
    3. Very difficult to say it is entire EB2I/C quota because then to stay within the 27% limit rule would be difficult.
    4. Very difficult to say it's FB SO from last year, as all FB categories are not current, leave alone notion of at least one being current.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  7. #807
    I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
    EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
    EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
    EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
    EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
    Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

    Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB

  8. #808
    I think we give a lot more credit to CO's legislative constraints than they deserve. We think of all the laws that he HAS to adhere to - while the truth is that he has pretty much been able to do whatever he feels like. The laws here are being taken more as guidelines and they do cross the boundaries when they need to. I think the focus is more on the intent of the law than the letter - its all in the interpretation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    Q, I just wish that the explanation you have provided regarding CO's methodical madness holds true. Abandonment of a big chunk of green cards may trigger larger VB movements and can help many people like me who are stuck in this backlog and may remain stuck for next 5-6 years. (My PD is 05/20/11 so obviously I wouldn't mind regular big movements)

    Sadly, there is no way to predict what is going on in CO's mind unless one is a Leonardo DiCaprio of Inception. And as qblogfan frequently says, CO does exactly opposite of what everyone is expecting. So I am not getting very optimistic but your logic behind this large scale EB2IC approval so early in the year is very palatable and I again hope your are right.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  9. #809
    Yes, I would say that Mr.Co never followed the rules. He does whatever he wants!

    Before FY 2007, he always allocated Spillovers to EB3, that's why Indian and Chinese EB2 got such long backlogs. If he understood the law, we shouldn't have the backlog in the first place! He operated the whole system for many years, but he didn't understand the law until 2007. What a joke!

    I seriously doubt he understands the law clearly. He is lack of some basic trainings.

    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    I think we give a lot more credit to CO's legislative constraints than they deserve. We think of all the laws that he HAS to adhere to - while the truth is that he has pretty much been able to do whatever he feels like. The laws here are being taken more as guidelines and they do cross the boundaries when they need to. I think the focus is more on the intent of the law than the letter - its all in the interpretation.

  10. #810
    Today and yesterday I saw more than 20 EB2-C approvals (around 10 families).

    Quote Originally Posted by meetasn View Post
    I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
    EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
    EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
    EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
    EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
    Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

    Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB

  11. #811
    It can't be from FY 2010, it can't be from FB, it can't be from Quarterly SO, it can't be from 2800 annual quota,

    it must be from Mr.CO's pocket, he saved some chocolates for us.............

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Also the reduction in demand data was more from India than from China.

    I agree, no one has any reasonable explanation as to what's going on. Currently only reasoning which seems to fit the bill is cleanup of inventory for "dead" 485s.

    1. Cannot be FY 2011 numbers, as numbers ran out on Sep 15th and reason cited was due to sudden demand shown by USCIS in august, which we know was for pending EB1 and EB2ROW
    2. Cannot be quarterly SO, as that happens after end of quarter
    3. Very difficult to say it is entire EB2I/C quota because then to stay within the 27% limit rule would be difficult.
    4. Very difficult to say it's FB SO from last year, as all FB categories are not current, leave alone notion of at least one being current.

  12. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    It can't be from FY 2010, it can't be from FB, it can't be from Quarterly SO, it can't be from 2800 annual quota,

    it must be from Mr.CO's pocket, he saved some chocolates for us.............
    LOL

    As anything is possible I would not say "numbers CAN NOT be from XZYZ" even if its technically correct and per the laws (known to us).

  13. #813
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Leo

    I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

    And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

    But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.
    I would like to point out that if they had I-140 approved then even if they lost their job went back to India and came back again in 2010 or 2011 then they will retain their old PD. I do not think there are too many people who would have left.
    Last edited by immi2910; 10-20-2011 at 12:25 PM.

  14. #814
    Pandit Eb2_Dec07's Avatar
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    Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?

  15. #815
    Quote Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07 View Post
    Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?
    I will stick with my old prediction, for the next bulletin the PD should 01-JAN-2008 everyone in 2007 should get their chance for filing their 485. On another note the approvals trend is really impressive. Looks like the entire cap for I/C i.e. 2800 will be consumed this month itself. If everyone (Preadjudicated) before 15th Jul 2007 gets approved then the demand data was actually true.

  16. #816
    Quote Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07 View Post
    Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?
    EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

    By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stemcell View Post
    But unconsciously in the past 10 years we have globalized....to an extent we are globizens now....we may live in one place for small periods at a time but mentally we corelate with other places too. Not sure if this makes any sense to anyone of you......
    ...

    So with your kids invest in three languages, English,Spanish and Mandarin.
    So much agree that we are globizens now - unconsciously. On the second point - can we please add either Hindi or Sanskrit please to that list.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #817
    Quote Originally Posted by meetasn View Post
    I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
    EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
    EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
    EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
    EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
    Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
    EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

    Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB
    TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 82 approvals in October with approximately 80% (64/82) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

    Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?
    Last edited by immi2910; 10-20-2011 at 01:45 PM.

  18. #818
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

    By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.


    So much agree that we are globizens now - unconsciously. On the second point - can we please add either Hindi or Sanskrit please to that list.
    Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me.

  19. #819
    tanu, I would tend to say 31st Jan rather than 1st Jan.

    Quote Originally Posted by tanu_75 View Post
    Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 10-20-2011 at 02:09 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #820

    India trip after filing I485 Apps

    Guys,
    I am planning to go India after filing I485 Apps. I will be filing on Nov 1st and will go to India in second week of Jan for 2 months. Do I need to worry about any thing.

  21. #821
    For some reason this reminds me of the saying ...the elephant has gone..whats remains is the tail.
    I think the general consensus on this forum is dates will surely move until jan 2008, this human being with a PD smack in the middle of march 08 is secretly hoping that the tail doesnt get stuck in the door.

    BTW I have a visa interview in the Mumbai Consulate...i am hoping that its the last one too..in the last year i have renewed H1 3 times gone for stamping 2 times..i m constantly printing stuff and and making copies.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    tanu, I would tend to say 31st Jan rather than 1st Jan.
    Last edited by Pdmar08; 10-20-2011 at 03:01 PM. Reason: Added more thoughts

  22. #822
    USCIS reverses decision to send the approvals to petitioners.. Now on it will be send to Attorneys. I wonder no one convinces Mr.Mayrokas about EB-3 India wait period.. or is there special lobbying required for that??

    http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/...,1020-i797.pdf

  23. #823
    Guys, after initial exchanges, we shall be moving Approvals related celebrations and information to:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...?144-Approvals

    as well as discussion about life in India, China etc. at:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...on-About-India

    General I-485 documentation needs discussion:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ion-Discussion
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-20-2011 at 07:08 PM.

  24. #824
    Pandit Eb2_Dec07's Avatar
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    Thanks Q for the insight. It's a wait and watch game now . For me it will be 5 yrs soon since last landing in home country so hoping for the best .

    [QUOTE=qesehmk;11503]EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

    By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.

  25. #825

    Here is my take

    Quote Originally Posted by tanu_75 View Post
    Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me.
    USCIS had 8.5k till July 2007. For every month after that if you take 2.5k it will be 12.5 k so total till Dec will be 21k. EB2 IC regular quota will be used by porting. (Guess 1) .

    DOS doesn't know yet what will be spill over and they don't do advance calculation like us. To not waste visa they must go over what was last year assigned around 30k. So till end of Feb 2008 they need to move if they need buffer then 2-3 more months. which will be till April - June 2008.

    Dates are not moving for DEC though !!!

    DOS has limit of 12k visas for first qtr for EB2 total and out of that 8,5 to 8.7k are assigned to EB2 IC rest will go to ROW and they will consume spillover from Q1. ( ROW will consume spillover ) and date will not move.....

    In Jan new qtr so date will move again for EB2 IC and may be same thing will happen.

    so far EB2 IC has used 3k extra and going forward it will only use 1-2k extra to make more move so total is < 6k which is EB5 spillover. If in case EB2 row and Eb1 doesnot spillover at all still DOS is safe by end of year.

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