I think the numbers are incorrect. I had asked this question at Ron Gotcher's forum (and here as well). At Ron's forum everyone agreed that the stats are not correct (http://www.immigration-information.c...-2011-a-15331/)Originally Posted by mrperfect
I will take that as a compliment. It is based on the movie GhostWriter, watched recently and liked it.
Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:
1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012
2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown
3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers
4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days
5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.
Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
Last edited by immi2910; 10-14-2011 at 05:48 PM. Reason: Formatting
Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012
[QUOTE=immi2910;11228]Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:
[QUOTE=cbpds1;11229]Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012
I just updated my definitions. What I meant was when the visa numbers would be available. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (or longer for USCIS processing times) to get an approximation of when the date will be current.
Last edited by immi2910; 10-14-2011 at 06:02 PM.
I Believe, People with PD of Feb 08 should be able to file by Feb 2012. This would be so that USCIS has enough cases pre-adjudicated to cover all SOFAD in July-Sept 2012.
I agree that most likely approval for folks beyond Jan 2012 would be in the next immigration year 2013 (immigration year like financial year
Either way they should be able to file and get their AP and EAD in IY-12.
Last edited by chikitsak; 10-14-2011 at 10:27 PM.
Just got a mail saying my app (PD 5/4/07) got approved and the card production was ordered. Spouse's app(PWMB) was sent to USCIS on 10/3/11. Thanks all! And may everyone here be greened soon!!
knight,
Congratulations!
Congratulations !!! Enjoy
Congrats!!!
This is a one of the best posts i have seen, thankyou very much.
Good effort immi2910. No one's calculations is 100% right, it's basically agreeing on various data sources one can use, and based on different assumptions, and prediction of CO's mind
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
gc0907, thanks for sharing your experience. Helps a lot in understanding the flowchart...
i am thinking to get the vaccinations done with primary physician as there is no validity date for vaccinations...
Thanks Veni, Monica, grnwtg !!
Many congratulations to you and your family. Thanks for sharing the good news with all of us. Have a great green life ahead.
After looking at the approvals trend it is quite clear that those who are current are being approved at a reasonable but not at an all inclusive pace. By reasonable I would like to infer that the approvals exceed the allowed usage for India and China both 250 (Monthly Limit) and 750 (Quarterly Limit). However amongst those current there is still a large number of people waiting I believe the approved to waiting ratio is 50-50. On Trackitt I read that NSC is performing better than TSC on approvals. The next limit for the approvals is the full annual cap of 2800 for I/C, if the agencies like they can consume the whole cap this month itself, let’s all keep watch. Will request all who are getting approved to share the good news.
Teddy is back!
Thanks for the trackitt trend analysis. Seems then most probably CO has indeed made some special arrangement with powers that are. Or there is some unannounced yet game like FB spillover.
I am very doubtful of quarterly SO, but if it is so, then next VB might be stuck and move may only happen in Q2 then. But in this strategy CO is relying on USCIS to approve 485 in 2-3 months and throughout the year there will be some new E2 IC 485 coming in when USCIS has to do 140 backlog reduction, that is why I think quarterly SO is not happening, or if its happening date movement should still be tagged on at start of FY, and hence Dec VB shud move.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Based on approval trend, looks like USCIS is following similar to last year trend in approving EB2IC by taking advantage of lower EB1 & EB2ROW demand/approvals.
They are still going to keep the overall VISA usage with in the allowed numbers (27%) for Q1.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
I think veni's explanation is very reasonable and also quite plausible to me. So, based on this scenario, we will have around 10K EB2 (I/C + ROW) approvals this quarter. So, overall if EB2-ROW consumes fewer than expected visas, there will be more EB2-I/C approvals. There are around 8K EB2-I/C with PD up to mid-Aug'07 (excluding PWMB) and 1K - 2K ending applications with earlier PDs and/or porting (~10K overall). So, there will be a reasonable number of EB2-I/C from 2007 filers who won't be approved this quarter.
Veni, pch053: Thank you. So are we hinting there is quarterly SO being done. And if so how is the 27% limit being respected as well as SO being used in beginning of Q1 instead of end. Sorry if I am totally speaking nonsense here, give me benefit of doubt and elaborate please.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Nishanth,
USCIS/DOS did not follow quarterly spillover last year, instead they used EB2IC full FY quota in the first two quarters.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Got it. So one takeaway can be that CO will want to build a 30-35k inventory as he is inspired by last year. As well as my thought that USCIS may be approaching their limit in backlog reduction of 140 might be tending towards truth. This portends good for the future.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Guys,
I think there is a good possibility that the dates won't move in December visa bulletin. It may well be that the DOS is done with the first quarter movements. Now they may like to take a break and monitor the new demand over the entire month of November. Any ways, December is the month of holidays and they may not have appetite for another big movement and the new flood of applications that comes along with that.
Come January, things will be different. It will be the start of the second quarter. They will have firm idea of the new demand by then and most importantly, new visa numbers will be available for the second quarter.
In conclusion, I am thinking that the next big movement will be in January visa bulletin....just a thought!
Last edited by vedu; 10-15-2011 at 07:46 PM.
I don't know if this data has been posted before or not but I just found it on OH law firm website while surfing.
I have not personally gone over the report in detail as it is very voluminous. But I just eye-balled it quickly and it seems that it has lots of important information. May be the Gurus can go over it and throw some light if they find something interesting and useful to us.
One interesting thing I noticed though was on the beginning of Page 15. It says "Each industry, as classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), experienced a significant increase in the number of certifications issued in FY 2010. It must be noted that the increase in certifications in all industries can be largely attributed to the significant increase in adjudications due to the backlog reduction effort, and not from any increase in filings".
Lot of people have been saying on different forums that the number of PERM filings have gone up significantly in 2010 and that may adversely affect people who have PDs in 2010 and 2011 (My PD is 5/20/11). But here the report mentions something else. Would this be a good news then? Can someone throw some light on this?
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ort_Master.pdf
Please remove if this link is a repost.
Last edited by Jonty Rhodes; 10-15-2011 at 11:53 PM.
I think they will continue to move forward because it does not make much difference to stop for 1 month to monitor the situation.
I believe they have better data than us and they estimated a pretty close number based on the data they have. I also believe they already made their plan half year ago when Mr.Co annouced the low demand of EB1 in April.
All he is doing is an excution of the plan they made six months ago.
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