EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qblogfan]

Yes, I am amazed that Mr.CO is approving these cases without any delay. At least six guys on mitbbs got GC with PD later than July 1st 2007. Totally more than 40 approvals have been reported in the first 12 days.

Wov! Guys, where's he getting numbers from. Looks like he is really respecting the Oct VB movement. I am amazed.

[qblogfan]

I think it is very possible. As far as the approval is around 700, that does not violates any immigration law. Nobody can attack him for moving PD in big leaps. All these politicians don't want to get into trouble.

There are around 40 EB2-I (incl. NIW) approvals in trackitt too for the month of Oct. Out of these around 27 folks have PDs between mid-April to mid-July (i.e. the PDs that got current in the Oct bulletin). I don't think we are certain yet that they will approve all pending (and pre-adjudicated) applications from 2007 or whether they will randomly approve around ~1400 EB2-I+C primarily filed during 2007 (700 quarterly quota for both EB2I and EB2C) cases during the first quarter.

[qesehmk]

sportsfan 50K ahead of you is way overestimation. Typically 2.5K per month would give you 30K per year. I would be comfortable with 2.5K per month formula.

I can say with certainty that you will be able to file 485 within 1 yr from now and should have a GC 2 years from now.

The question I would ask myself if I were you - do I have the luxury to wait that much (which doesn;'t sound too much compared to what you have already spent) & secondly what am I losing in my career in pursuit of GC (if anything at all).

As I said - for you there definitely is light at the end of tunnel and its not a freight train

Hello everyone,

I joined this board only last night. I have found this to be one of the most informative boards among all immigration forums, and I have to thank all "Gurus" for their hard work.

As like everyone here, I am stuck in the EB2-I quagmire. I came to the US back in 2000, and for various reasons, my GC wasn't filed until 2008 (I was working as a research scientist for 3 years after my MS, but they never filed for me, and my present company took a grand 3 years to file).

I had almost left hope and was going to go back. However the recent visa movement has made me stick around. I see that there are visa approvals for even people from July. This is quite surprising. My question is - are they able to give out those visas from this years 5600 numbers only? If so, can we say that everyone from July 2007 onwards would be covered by the spillovers starting in April.

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.

Thanks for the informative forum once again.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan

Welcome to this forum.

Regarding the Dense and light years, there is no data available as of now to consider them as dense and light and moreover asper the perm data available, both are equally dense, also 2008 does have a high potential to yield as many I485 as 2007.

As Spec pointed out the resilient nature of our guys , even in the deep recession there is a chance of retaining the PDs , by recapturing them in the years 2009, 2010 onwards.

So please compare Yesterday's two tables and come to an idea by yourself that if you believe there are drop outs and multiple perms then go by Suninphx table and if you dont think so go by Specs table ( this is just an assumption until the original datas come in to picture)

Both the tables were worked out by Spectator

[dce.deepak]

Spec/Veni,

How did you come up with this formulae to calculate the received date for Perm application
=DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI

This seems to work for my case number but not for one of my friend.

[nishant2200]

Not to dash anyone's optimism, but we all seem to be taking 25k SOFAD for granted. There is 30k 140 backlog, 10k of it is more than last year, pointed out by Teddy. Last Q4 they did indicate them jumping on E1 n E2ROW. So what mitigating factors are there to consider 25k n not 20k SOFAD.

I am just afraid of too high hopes. I feel that Nov VB move indicates what date CO thinks will get GC this year, anymore he will take to have buffer and have some inward path into next FY.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan

Your are calculatingby taking the total perm certified in the year 2008 instead you have to take the total number of perms with 2008 priority date by looking into the table horizontally. There are 23,503 perms with PD 2008

[grnwtg]

Hi sportsfan,


Calculation from Perms filed:
When if you this this link from spec
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)

You can notice that total perms
for 2007 - 28977
for 2008 - 27657
for 2009 - 18740
for 2010 - 24321

if we see in 2006, there are about 2300/per month on average and in 2007( till July) are about same 2300/month average, and some people here believe that there are about 5k people whose priority date in this range who missed the boat which makes average as 3000k/month and i agree that, 2007 is very very dense (i myself know around 5-6 companies who have given around 50-60 labors as substitution, so i can imagine who it would have effect in whole country).
According to above data i feel in 2008, average/month will not exceed 2300/month

Hello everyone,

I joined this board only last night. I have found this to be one of the most informative boards among all immigration forums, and I have to thank all "Gurus" for their hard work.

As like everyone here, I am stuck in the EB2-I quagmire. I came to the US back in 2000, and for various reasons, my GC wasn't filed until 2008 (I was working as a research scientist for 3 years after my MS, but they never filed for me, and my present company took a grand 3 years to file).

I had almost left hope and was going to go back. However the recent visa movement has made me stick around. I see that there are visa approvals for even people from July. This is quite surprising. My question is - are they able to give out those visas from this years 5600 numbers only? If so, can we say that everyone from July 2007 onwards would be covered by the spillovers starting in April.

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.

Thanks for the informative forum once again.

[Spectator]

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.

I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post, which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread. You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

[qblogfan]

I think you should be current in the beginning of FY 2013. Once the demand is less than 10k in the next October, Mr.CO will start building another pipeline. You should be able to submit your 485 in the next October or Nov.

I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post, which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread. You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

[Reader]

Just based on the language given in the recent visa bulletin, here is what I think would happen.

"While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility"


While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated - This part indicates that at least another 6 months of movement is expected in this FY

they may not be made on a monthly basis - This sets the expectation that they may not move in next two bulletins and wait for another 2 months and then move it only in January by another 3 months.

and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility - This indicates that the dates would move back to Nov or Dec 2007 around March 2012 and will remain there until the next pipeline building starts in September 2012 bulletin.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spectator. So "realistically", I am looking at April 2013 spillover. It looks to be a function of how many applications DoS can take while it would still have substantial numbers in the inventory. Any time from October 2012-March 2013, with the later dates more likely then? That's what it seems like. Is that an accurate statement?

For approval, yes.

If we take the assumption of Cut Off date movement in FY2012 based on 35k, but actual SOFAD of 25k, then FY2013 would start with 10k applicants in the system with an earlier PD. If DOS move the dates again similarly to this year in Q1 FY2013, than your PD might become Current, allowing you to file I-1485.

You would be something like the 20,000th (plus porting cases with earlier PDs that get approved during the time it takes to adjudicate) case for the year, so actual approval would be delayed until later in the year, when sufficient visas can be allocated. But if you consider the processing time for the I-485, it probably wouldn't be any longer than a ROW applicant, applying at the same time, as that will probably be the rate limiting step.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Looks like you are ignoring my message or missed it so posting it again ..

Patience is a virtue. It's a good lesson to learn.

[suninphx]

Not to dash anyone's optimism, but we all seem to be taking 25k SOFAD for granted. There is 30k 140 backlog, 10k of it is more than last year, pointed out by Teddy. Last Q4 they did indicate them jumping on E1 n E2ROW. So what mitigating factors are there to consider 25k n not 20k SOFAD.

I am just afraid of too high hopes. I feel that Nov VB move indicates what date CO thinks will get GC this year, anymore he will take to have buffer and have some inward path into next FY.

Yes- depending upon how many of them are non IC this could very well hurt.

[grnwtg]

We never know how to intepret those statements and in previous instances their prediction was wrong.
Anyway if we consider that there are 5600 combined for Iand C, quarterly spillover for first quarter will be available in December ( around 4.5 to 6.5k) which makes available visas around 10k to 12k. But right now according to our Guru's calculation there will be atleast 19k demand. So remaining 7k to 9k people will continuously call them either through infopass or through senator. These people can be satisfied to an extent in 2nd Quarter. This is will be difficult situation for DOS to keep existing dates.

So by February bulletin dates might retrogress and go head to PD January '08 to PD March'2008 by June visa bulletin in May'2012 like last year.

And in case if demand they get is low due to any factor ( read this if are very optimistic )
1) demand decreased by 5000k this time and uscis explained it vaguely that some correctiions had to be made due to some mistakes
2) many I140 are abandoned due to various reasons
3) of they want to build demand by applying some common sense, they need to move dates anywhere between Jan'08 to april'08 in next visa bulleting or January visa bulletin.

Just based on the language given in the recent visa bulletin, here is what I think would happen.

"While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility"


While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated - This part indicates that at least another 6 months of movement is expected in this FY

they may not be made on a monthly basis - This sets the expectation that they may not move wait for another 2 months and then move it only in January by another 3 months.

and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility - This indicates that the dates would move back to Nov or Dec 2007 around March 2012 and will remain there until the next pipeline building starts in September 2012 bulletin.

[dce.deepak]

Patience is a virtue. It's a good lesson to learn.

Thanks spec...,
I was just wondering whether you missed it or looked at it.. now I know you looked at it I will be patient...
this is one case number where its not working A-07215-xxxxx this has a priority date of 23 May 2008 (verified with I-140) but with your formulae it coming as Aug 3rd 2007 with this formulae =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))

[leo4ever]

I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post, which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread. You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

very nicely said my friend. I like the way you explained it. I am in Nov'08 and i was expecting 2 more years to get my dates current. Who know what changes the movement going forward, its better be pessimist some times.

[Kanmani]

Deepak

The formula is true only if the online perm application is filled up and submitted on the same day by the respective attorney. In your friend's case, the attorney might have pressed the submit button after some days( even months) .

The case number( first five digits ) is the day of the respective year . For example today is 11285 ( 285th day of 2011) , if your and your friend's attorney prepares the perm application online on the same day but submits them 1 month apart, then the first five digits of your A# will be the same.

But the Priority dates will be different .

Note: I replied to your first post.

[nishant2200]

Yes, both of you are kind of correct. You never know.

Frankly, I think if DOS really wants to move dates to build inventory, they can just do that without any excuses. CO does not want to do excess and continue to be conservative so that no eyes are raised. His two main goals are: 1. Utilize all visas 2. Categories marked current should be honored and continue to remain current (this automatically implies fair allocation of SO, not doing quarterly SO so that any surprise demand later on does not lead to imposing cut off dates on current categories).

Date movement has nothing to do with actual GC issuance. Also if people call senators and open SR etc, they can always be informed, your file is awaiting a visa number.

It can go either way in next VB, I agree. Both sides can put forth some arguments and interpreations of CO's statement.

We never know how to intepret those statements and in previous instances their prediction was wrong.
Anyway if we consider that there are 5600 combined for Iand C, quarterly spillover for first quarter will be available in December ( around 4.5 to 6.5k) which makes available visas around 10k to 12k. But right now according to our Guru's calculation there will be atleast 19k demand. So remaining 7k to 9k people will continuously call them either through infopass or through senator. These people can be satisfied to an extent in 2nd Quarter. This is will be difficult situation for DOS to keep existing dates.

So by February bulletin dates might retrogress and go head to PD January '08 to PD March'2008 by June visa bulletin in May'2012 like last year.

And in case if demand they get is low due to any factor ( read this if are very optimistic )
1) demand decreased by 5000k this time and uscis explained it vaguely that some correctiions had to be made due to some mistakes
2) many I140 are abandoned due to various reasons
3) of they want to build demand by applying some common sense, they need to move dates anywhere between Jan'08 to april'08 in next visa bulleting or January visa bulletin.

[Spectator]

Thanks spec...,
I was just wondering whether you missed it or looked at it.. now I know you looked at it I will be patient...
this is one case number where its not working A-07215-xxxxx this has a priority date of 23 May 2008 (verified with I-140) but with your formulae it coming as Aug 3rd 2007 with this formulae =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))

I agree with the result. As Kanmani, said, the Case No. is generated when the attorney first creates the case, not when it is submitted. It seems an exceptionally big gap, so perhaps it was created before even the PWD request was submitted, or they edited a previously created case which was not going to be submitted.

A mystery.

[suninphx]

I agree with the result. As Kanmani, said, the Case No. is generated when the attorney first creates the case, not when it is submitted. It seems an exceptionally big gap, so perhaps it was created before even the PWD request was submitted, or they edited a previously created case which was not going to be submitted.

A mystery.

Ok this brings up a interesting statistics as to how many such cases exist? I think on border months(Nov-feb) there is higher possibility. Not sure if affects any statistics because it will cancel out. right?

[Spectator]

Ok this brings up a interesting statistics as to how many such cases exist? I think on border months(Nov-feb) there is higher possibility. Not sure if affects any statistics because it will cancel out. right?

Exactly right and there has been a discussion previously.

Anecdotally, the numbers aren't huge, but over the year, any effect is cancelled out.

[girish989]

I wanted to remind people about Q's message about keeping the thread clean.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...1010#post11010

Do your homework before asking a question, stay clear of the "when will my PD become current" question and if you have asked a question that's been answered and doesn't add value to others, delete it. To practice what I preach, I promise to delete this comment in a few hours.

Spec/Q -

Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:

PD By Quarter and Year | Earliest possible Date for 485 | Definitely possible Date for 485
Quarter 1 2008
Quarter 2 2008
Quarter 3 2008
Quarter 4 2008
Quarter 1 2009
Quarter 2 2009
Quarter 3 2009
Quarter 4 2009
Quarter 1 2010
Quarter 2 2010
Quarter 3 2010
Quarter 4 2010
Quarter 1 2011
Quarter 2 2011
Quarter 3 2011


Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.

[Spectator]

girish,

I'll be honest and say I won't be doing it.

Unless you can get a brain dump from CO, it is impossible to even speculate about such small time periods.

Also, PERM Certifications have still appeared in significant numbers in FY2011 Q1-Q3 for PDs in 2008, let alone later years. CY2011 is nowhere near complete.

It is a stretch even to publish the summary I already have and I have some misgivings about even doing that.

I suspect the lack of a response from anyone else means they have the same misgivings.

[tanu_75]

Spec/Q -

Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:



Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.

Why don't you try and put it together yourself based on Spec's spreadsheet here :http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Your guess will be as good as anybody else's. If there's something which nobody knows it is how will CO move the dates. He's proved and continues to prove quite a few people wrong already. I think in essence, it's a futile effort.

Spec's sheet is the clearest indication for anyone to get an idea. You can use a algorithm based on best case porting - 12 months for your "Earliest Possible Date" and worst case porting - 5 months for your "Latest Possible Date". But we are in unknown territory when it comes to 485. After 4 years, it's only in the past month, that they restarted taking new 485 inventory(except PWMB). So noone knows what strategy he has in his mind. It'll need at least a few months of VB's to understand how he intends to do the buildup.