EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?

PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time.

[Jitesh]

I think your wife might be working for the direct client not consulting.(or got a letter from the client with a 3 year end date of the project) in that case she can get 3 years, if there are layers, more the layer greater the RFE and bigger the problems.

I am not working for direct client - even client did not specify any end date for my project.
but I got 3 years extension based on I -140 approval.

[Spectator]

Spectator, I would like you to change your first assumption from 60% to 70%, which I believe is a better approximation (see my earlier post for reasons - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...1016#post11016).

Additionally, I am interested in only the 1st column (no Porting) as I believe Porting will tend to cancel out again see my earlier post.

Finally, I only need it for applicants with PD of 2008 and later as I believe everyone with PD up to 2007 will get GC in FY '12. I believe your assumption is that only 90% of 2008 applicants remain. I do not have a better estimate on that number so please use that.

Are those assumptions for both China and India?

If not, what do you want to assume for China?

[Spectator]

Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?

PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time.

suninphx,

That's the problem - there is no known drop out rate!

Will the drop out rate be different for China vs India.

Will the drop out rate be different depending on the occupation? Probably yes, so what are the different rates and what % do they represent for Chinese and Indian applicants.

You see the problem.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

That's the problem - there is no known drop out rate!

Will the drop out rate be different for China vs India.

Will the drop out rate be different depending on the occupation? Probably yes, so what are the different rates and what % do they represent for Chinese and Indian applicants.

You see the problem.

Thats definatly possible. Construction and Manufactring were more affected than IT , I think.
Lets not separate out IC numbers for now. We can average that out. As my first attempt, can you please run the numbers for following drop rate?
2007- 80% ( I reduced this because of double filing, labour substitution etc)
2008- 75% (Trackitt data for PD2008 shows reduction on around 12% from PERM->I140. I am adding my best guess on top of that)
2009 - 90%

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.

[GhostWriter]

suninphx, my priority date is end of 2009, so as much as assuming huge drop out rates for 2008 will "help" me, i don't think that is the case. I agree with Spec's assumption of people being resilient. Also the bad economy is factored in the low filings of 2009 PERM. If people were able to get GC filed in 2008 that would have to be after the managers factored in the economic environment. I know a friend who lost his job when Lehman went under, his wife lost her job in software one month after that but they survived.
So i will hope for being positively surprised by that not being the case but can't think of reasons why people will not take salary cuts or relocate to a lesser desired city and preserve the priority date.

I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

[immi2910]

Are those assumptions for both China and India?

If not, what do you want to assume for China?

It is for India and China. I am repeating the relevant portion of my calculation:

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants

[immi2910]

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.

I think it is more like 70:30. I have explained my rationale in my other posts.

[suninphx]

suninphx, my priority date is end of 2009, so as much as assuming huge drop out rates for 2008 will "help" me, i don't think that is the case. I agree with Spec's assumption of people being resilient. Also the bad economy is factored in the low filings of 2009 PERM. If people were able to get GC filed in 2008 that would have to be after the managers factored in the economic environment. I know a friend who lost his job when Lehman went under, his wife lost her job in software one month after that but they survived.
So i will hope for being positively surprised by that not being the case but can't think of reasons why people will not take salary cuts or relocate to a lesser desired city and preserve the priority date.

I agree with point of 'people being resilient'. Thats definatly there. Also, our opinions are formed based on our own experiences. Like you have seen your friends surviving , I have seen otherwise. So may be thats influecing by opinion. And remember when people change jobs, there is double PERM filing.

I am just trying to play out my best case scenario to just have an idea.

[qblogfan]

In my opinion, 2008 has a higher drop out rate. People were hopless after missing 2007 Fiasco. Many of my friends gave up and returned home.

The second thing is that in 2008 many cases were audited and some of them were audited for more than 2 years. Many folks changed jobs in this process and filed PERMs with new employers.

I think many of the 2008 PERMs are not active any more. The drop out rate is much higher than 2007 for sure.

The 2007 folks have much higher security after getting EAD/AP, so very few of them gave up their GC applications. For the 2008 folks, most of them suffered much more and had no security at all and drop out ratio is way higher.

well sorry I did not intend to say 2008 specifically, seems from reading ur post, you are interested in 2008 vs 2007 difference. You think 2008 will have big drop out.

I frankly can recollect various brainstorms amongst peoples, including spec, on this, and we all agreed on this concensus for now. I will let Spec reply further.

Personally I hope you are correct.

[rahul2011]

i agree with deepak. Even mine will show as Certified-Expired and , PD is Nov 15 , 2007 and My 140 got approved. i even got 3 years h1 extension based on I 140.

[nishant2200]

i agree with deepak. Even mine will show as Certified-Expired and , PD is Nov 15 , 2007 and My 140 got approved. i even got 3 years h1 extension based on I 140.

that is fine. both certified and certified expired, we have to count as contributors to PERM. the labors may show certified expired status 180 days after certification.

[Spectator]

Thats definatly possible. Construction and Manufactring were more affected than IT , I think.
Lets not separate out IC numbers for now. We can average that out. As my first attempt, can you please run the numbers for following drop rate?
2007- 80% ( I reduced this because of double filing, labour substitution etc)
2008- 75% (Trackitt data for PD2008 shows reduction on around 12% from PERM->I140. I am adding my best guess on top of that)
2009 - 90%

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.

I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
suninphx Calulations - Zero Porting_2.jpg

[suninphx]

I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
Attachment 173

Thanks Spec! The results are very interesting!

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec! The results are very interesting!

suninphx,

I hope the presentation gave you what you wanted, or at least you can extract sufficient information to suit your purpose. It was difficult to know how to do it fairly concisely. I don't want to post the full detail. I t will become confusing and it too much for most people to take in.

PS to Kanmani,

I have restored your post, which I noticed you very considerately had deleted. Thanks for the thanks!
We all like that from time to time. Don't worry too much about posting them occasionally - I can remove then later!

[qblogfan]

Spec, thanks for your hard work. I think it is great to have different senarios.

It looks like this year's range should be 11/22/2007 to 5/1/2008.

The worst senario is 11/22/2007 and the best senario is 5/1/2008.

Personally I think a middle point might be the final movement.

I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
Attachment 174
Note - Porting Columns for FY2013 assume 3,500 Porting in FY2012.

The No Porting Column is No Porting in either FY.

Edit - The No Porting Column for FY2013 also assumes 3,500 in FY2012. I don't think this is what you want. A replacement result will appear shortly. Sorry about that.

[meetasn]

I am new to this forum, but following from the past 4 months and finally joined
Congrats for all those got GC's and PD date current.

EB2-I PD July 11 2007, Nebraska got approval today. It will keep the hope for future PD movement.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[suninphx]

suninphx,

I hope the presentation gave you what you wanted, or at least you can extract sufficient information to suit your purpose. It was difficult to know how to do it fairly concisely. I don't want to post the full detail. I t will become confusing and it too much for most people to take in.

PS to Kanmani,

I have restored your post, which I noticed you very considerately had deleted. Thanks for the thanks!
We all like that from time to time. Don't worry too much about posting them occasionally - I can remove then later!

Spec,
Yes -this gives me a very precise range using which I can build my scenarios. Thanks again for your help.

[qblogfan]

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

I am new to this forum, but following from the past 4 months and finally joined
Congrats for all those got GC's and PD date current.

EB2-I PD July 11 2007, Nebraska got approval today. It will keep the hope for future PD movement.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[qblogfan]

Please share your scenarios with us. I look forward to reading your analysis. It will help us understand the future movement better.

Spec,
Yes -this gives me a very precise range using which I can build my scenarios. Thanks again for your help.

[suninphx]

Please share your scenarios with us. I look forward to reading your analysis. It will help us understand the future movement better.

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?

[nishant2200]

Wov! Guys, where's he getting numbers from. Looks like he is really respecting the Oct VB movement. I am amazed.

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

[pch053]

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

There are around 40 EB2-I (incl. NIW) approvals in trackitt too for the month of Oct. Out of these around 27 folks have PDs between mid-April to mid-July (i.e. the PDs that got current in the Oct bulletin). I don't think we are certain yet that they will approve all pending (and pre-adjudicated) applications from 2007 or whether they will randomly approve around ~1400 EB2-I+C primarily filed during 2007 (700 quarterly quota for both EB2I and EB2C) cases during the first quarter.

[Spectator]

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?

If we can validate the calculations against real numbers, it will be extremely useful, to say the least. I think that can only come from the USCIS Inventory (with the monthly breakdown) and relies on it being published during a time when the new applications have been received, but none have been approved. That might prove quite difficult, unless the dates retrogress for a while. Otherwise, like the DOS Demand Data, the numbers are too dynamic.

[qblogfan]

Suninphx, I agree with your prediction. I think April 08 is a good estimation. I think folks before April 08 should have a good chance to submit 485, but may not get GC in this FY. But I think EAD/AP should be possible for these folks.

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?