EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[soggadu]

Petition to get H1 stamping done from within US. Go on and sign the petition to save the trouble of getting stuck with the stupid 221g form during Visa stamping... Please use the link below and create an account to sign the petition.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petition...untry/X016NylF

awesome...best one...even though some of us will have ead now...lets all support this for our brothers from other mothers...

[rahil1]

Rahil, 05/02/2007 or 07/02/2007?

05/02/2007

[soggadu]

When will be my turn, my PD is 04/08/2008?

Before the end of this FY for sure... puckka...lock kiya jaaye...

[venkimakthal]

Thank you Guru

[rahil1]

rahil bhai...congratulations... rahil to sahil(shore) pe pahoonch(reached) gaye...

thank you bhai... good luck to you..

[Spectator]

I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.

immi2910,

See post #8 here to understand why South Korea are allowed to use so many visas.

[nishant2200]

I think you will surely be current in the next bulletin as USCIS says that there will be more forward movement (even though it might be followed with retrogression). Good luck!

thank you pch053. May you get the email soon informing you that your change of status to permanent resident has been registered!

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
I wish and pray that you along with others who are waiting to file I-485 get current in the next bulletin.
Many thanks to you, Q, Veni, Soggadu, Teddi, Spec, Monica, Kanmani, and everybody else for making this wait bearable and for giving everybody hope (based on good quantitative backing)!!

All the very best!!

thank you. Your username does not hold true any more for you

[bieber]

Rahil

congrats,

[nishant2200]

Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!

For 4/3/2008, Yes, this exists.

[nishant2200]

You should be able to file in FY 2013 Q1, looking at current way they are doing things.

If you are changing job to a full time position, in a company, that can stand up to EB2 scrutiny and requirements and any detailed audit if needed, and are ready to file for EB2 at the most 6 months after starting if not earlier, I would go ahead. If you change jobs right now, and start EB2 GC again in 6 months, and say your PERM to 140 approval takes a year, you should have an approved 140 by May-June 2013, and at that time, July 2008 has good chance to be current. Anyways if you would stick around, this would be around the time a GC might be expected for you.

Q and other gurus,

I know you've been asked this question a number of times. But my pd is July 2008 and although I know there is slim chance of it becoming current until next year, I wanted to know your thoughts. It is getting difficult with each passing day at work and I have another offer in hand. I am not sure whether to take the risk or hang on a bit longer.

Thnx

[nishant2200]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

latemost I have heard is June 2008 of a user on IV.

btw, on ron gotcher's forum: http://www.immigration-information.c...-future-15096/

see his note:

"I don't think that anyone outside of the State Department has a clue as to future cutoff date movement in the short term. There are just too many unknown variables. Perhaps the best indication is the interval we see between when the NVC sends the fee bill and the individual's priority date. Generally, the NVC does not send a fee bill until they estimate that the person's priority date will be current within half a year. I randomly picked three fee bills that we have received in the last few months to get an idea of what the NVC is doing. In April, we got a fee bill for an India EB2 applicant with a cutoff date of September, 2007. In May we got one for someone with a cutoff date in November. In June we got one for someone with a cutoff date in January, 2008. When I get time, I'll go through all of our fee bills and put together a list of the fee bill dates and the corresponding cutoff dates.

Before anyone tries to use this for precise calculations, please understand that the NVC simply makes their best guess. They could be off by months. At the same time, they have access to the best backlog data available."

He is also pointing to a monthly staggered approach co-relation between NVC fee bills and EB2 PDs. Similar monthly staggered approach has been so far in the VB date movements. touchwood.

[nishant2200]

My personal approach is that I will stay put, and when dates get current, will immidiately take an appointment. There is no need to rush. This is not july 2007 where tons of people are calling doctor offiices for appointment.

What I have done in advance is shortlisted the civil surgeon I want to go to. I called up 3 civil surgeons, asked their charges and approach, and really liked one of them's attitudes and have selected him.

My priority date is 12th Dec 2007. I am thinking of going for medicals and get the vaccinations completed now with the hope that my date will become current in the next month or at least in the next 3 months. Do you guys think it is good idea or should I just stay put until I see my dates being current? Any thoughts please?

[nishant2200]

Yes, I think it's good approach being taken by DOS.

Porting is highly dynamic, unpredictable, and constantly occuring phenomena throughout the FY. They should definitely keep the pipeline building seperate from that. They always have the choice of appropriate retrogression to honor porters.

Hi qblogfan,
I thought after yesterday's demand data, we are not sure what was exact number of inventory USCIS has, 8k is reduced to 3k. This 5k has lot of importance, like you i was also telling that they need atleast 35k applications for next year, so this 5k will be crucial if we are going to March'2008 or August'2008.
Apart from as Guru's mentioned whole data we have might changed from the demand data we get after 2 more months.
One more good news is that bulletin did not mention anything about porting data (althought reading their lines might be waste of time)

[nishant2200]

I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer

qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

All I can say is I am glad I didn't pursue PhD and started working

[nishant2200]

It amazes me that people feel apologetic about not doing something for which they are not paid. Just kidding - Nishant

Helping fellow frustrated EB immigrants and learning from them, priceless. For everything else, there's paid work

[kd2008]

I believe that if DoS builds up the pipeline sufficiently then from 2012 onwards we should see zero date movement in the last quarter of the fiscal year or quite possibly a little retrogression.

[immi2910]

immi2910,

See post #8 here to understand why South Korea are allowed to use so many visas.

I still do not understand how South Korea retrogression would help EB2IC

[veni001]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

rahil,
Congratulations!

[imdeng]

Since SK is current as part of EB2ROW, they can not receive any spillover. Since they have very little FB visa consumption, they can get more EB2 visas than 2800 that we think as a per country limit. What would help EB2IC is if South Korea's FB usage grows - then they will approach their 7% per country limit and a 2800 visa per EB category will go into effect.

I quoting Spec's link in the previous reply - in 2009, SK had ~14K EB Visa and ~2K FB Visa, well below the ~25K total FB+EB threshold for 7% per country limit. So they are a bit far away from becoming "oversubscribed" (that is the term DoS uses). I checked their 2010 FB usage and it is a paltry 2,592 - so they will continue to consumer more EB2 visas in near future at least.

I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.

[immi2910]

Since SK is current as part of EB2ROW, they can not receive any spillover. Since they have very little FB visa consumption, they can get more EB2 visas than 2800 that we think as a per country limit. What would help EB2IC is if South Korea's FB usage grows - then they will approach their 7% per country limit and a 2800 visa per EB category will go into effect.

I quoting Spec's link in the previous reply - in 2009, SK had ~14K EB Visa and ~2K FB Visa, well below the ~25K total FB+EB threshold for 7% per country limit. So they are a bit far away from becoming "oversubscribed" (that is the term DoS uses). I checked their 2010 FB usage and it is a paltry 2,592 - so they will continue to consumer more EB2 visas in near future at least.

I get it now.

[03May07]

Congratulations to all those who became current in Nov bulletin. That was released kinda early.

[03May07]

05/02/2007

Congratulations Rahil1.

This means even I would've got it, if I didnt miss the boat then...in...2007.....

Question: Now what happens to your spouse status, after you get your GC? As per my understanding, you must've just filed for your spouse after Oct 1.

[sreddy]

Hello Nishant, I am not familiar with this terminology. What are fee Bills, and what is NVC?

It seems his estimates are closely matching as of today. In May they sent fee bill (what ever that is) for November, and now we are expecting November people to be current in December bulletin, which is about 6 months time after fee bills are sent (matches what he said). If that estimate (should i call it theory?) is right, January bulletin is expected to take us thro Jan 2008 (June to December is 6 months). Can we ask Ron help check what is the latest on Fee bill sent date (if possible in Sept)? After all getting EAD isn't bad.

[PD0607]

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....