EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Friends, I was out on lunch, following on iPhone in car. I came back, sat just for 5 minutes dizzy.

yes, I am 11/8/2007. I need two more weeks of movement. Any next movement whenever it happens will absorb me.

My heartfelt best wishes for all who got current.

My current take, just based on gut feeling is that next VB will be a mini version of this one, there will be two months movement to Jan 1st 2008.

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

rdsingh, you are the star of the day. God bless you.

Hearing on STEM the TIDE!

Hearing on: "STEM the Tide: Should America Try to Prevent an Exodus of Foreign Graduates of U.S. Universities with Advanced Science Degrees?"


Testimony by VivekWadhwa.

1. The right solution is to significantly increase the numbers of visas that are offered to skilled workers in the EB1-through-3 categories. We also need to remove the per-country limits. If a move such as this proves politically untenable, then the conversion of temporary visas to permanent residencies could be tied to the purchase of a house, of say $250,000 or more in value. 2. We should provide permanent-resident visas for graduates of top U.S. colleges. Given that, among U.S. postgraduate engineering and science students, nearly half of masters and most PhD students are foreign nationals, it makes sense to encourage these students to stay in the U.S. after graduation. Though it will not guarantee that they will stay, it will certainly make it more likely. To limit abuse of this program, it should only apply to degree holders from research universities or universities with established and well-regarded science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programs. We should also require that students receive job offers from legitimate U.S. corporations. 3. Another solution is to allow skilled workers to get a green card if they start a company that employs Americans. As we noted from our research, the majority of the foreign-born entrepreneurs who started Silicon Valley companies entered the U.S. for education or work. They started companies 13 years, on average, after their arrival in the U.S. So, this was the cohort that had entered the U.S. in the ’80s and early ’90s. A sizeable proportion of the 2000 cohort is stuck in “immigration limbo.” There are tens of thousands of such immigrants who are ready to start companies that create jobs if we let them.

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/...2010052011.pdf


Read the whole

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/...0052011_2.html

Legislative action is the permanent fix to this mess. As a EB community, we can't forget the mess our EB3 brothers are in still, as well as EB2 for later on years can't still be predicted with total certainty.

mine is 10/29/2007. can't believe this!

dude have the big beer mug now, the one which is in your avatar on IV. Or have a physics marathon congrats.

Very happy for those who became currently Finally. Teddy you definetly deserve it.Congrats to Soggadu as well.

myself and Nishant just missed it ( Mine is Nov 9th and Nishant is probably around the same time ) . I just hope it moves in the next VB too.

Congrats once again.

gcseeker, if you are in Los Angeles, would be glad to have drinks and observe a minute of silence for both of us

I think , Soggadu bhai is taking an afternoon nap. Wake up!!!!!!!!!! Good news is waiting .

Sorry Nishant you missed it by a week.

Kanmani, thanks for remembering me. I ride on the good wishes of people, and this is what helps me. Thank you again.

Congratulations to everybody who has become Current! Woo Hoo!!

Special thoughts to Teddy, who has done so much to manage the expectations of the community. I am so pleased for you.

PS Looks like the FB model.

Yes, I don't think quarterly SO etc model. And even if they do quarterly SO, who says they cant combine and get the best of both. Date movement is solely to make inventory, why club it with the confines of quarterly SO.

[nishant2200]

Nishant, are you in? if u just missed, you will get chance for sure next month. Not that you don't know

Spec, Please explain FB model when you get a chance

Soggadu, I really want to call this guy and break the news, can't imagine what happens to him when he sees the news

Kanmani, is your PD in now?

bieber, as I said above, I missed by a few. Thanks for thinking of me. You guys prayers will take me and us all through.

Sorry,In moment of excitement forgot the to Thanks.
Thanks to Q for this wonderful forum. Thanks to Q,Spec,T,Veni for getting hands dirty to put something useful out for this community.Congrats to all Current.Good luck to Nishant and rest for next bulletin.

needid, thank you for your wishes. All the best to you.

[nishant2200]

Its been a very lucky day for me. This morning I clicked on bookmarked link for Demand Data and I saw the Nov data posted (first try). And then this afternoon I tried the Nov VB linked and the pdf document loaded!!! (instead of "sorry cannot find the webpage on DOS website). With huge anticipation, I scrolled down (hands trembling) and voilaa....Nov 01 2007...means i am current. Indeed a very lucky day for me. May be today I should buy Powerball and Mega Millions tickets too

You sir indeed are the star of the day. Entire Amgen corporation (read tons of desis) near my office, is celebrating because of news broken by you.

Shivarajan

Cheer up .We are with you too ( 11/09/2007) ,srd4gc(11/15/2007) and Nishant (around 11/15/2007 is what I remember)...

It definetly gives me hope they will move it again next month and we can be current or atleast the day is not too far off.

seeker, dont increase my pain. its 11/8/07, not 11/15/07

[nishant2200]

Right now the PDF file also seems to have been pulled back. Its no longer accessible:
"Sorry, we couldn't find that page on travel.state.gov"

dont worry it will come back. it happened earlier too.

[skpanda]

Still accessible -

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

Right now the PDF file also seems to have been pulled back. Its no longer accessible:
"Sorry, we couldn't find that page on travel.state.gov"

[Spectator]

So now its confirmed, the FB model is in motion - increase PD by 3 months each in every month of the first quarter and then retrogress in the second quarter. That should give USCIS enough time to process everything and have a healthy inventory going into the spillover season. This also ensures that USCIS is not flooded all of a sudden.

Next demand data will be interesting to watch. I am essentially looking for gurus to come to a PERM-to-485 multiplier so that we can get a good fix on the hidden demand beyond the current PD.

imdeng,

Unfortunately, it will take several months for the numbers to appear in either the Demand Data or a USCIS Inventory.

The Inventory is better, since it slices the data monthly and only needs an I-485 with an underlying I-140 approved.

The Inventory after next is probably the best bet.

The Demand Data requires the I-485 to be documentarily qualified, meaning it is pre-adjudicated - that takes considerable time and continuous approvals make it very dynamic.

[pch053]

USCIS says the same thing about EB2 movement for Nov bulletin too:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One thing he mentioned is "significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated"; not sure, whether this implies that the dates will move well into 2008! Also, there is a note that the movements might not be on a monthly basis. Maybe, the indication is that visa date movements might be a bit intermittent in the coming months.

[soggadu]

yes big T, beiber, JJ and all people of the forum........ i am also current... pehli baar current huaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. it's like going on my first date...no words to describe....i wish everybody gets current (so that everybody feel so confused as me :-) ).... abb mein kya karoon ( what do i do now)....also thanks to my friend prabha who has given me this news...he is one of the anonymous readers...

Jai ho to everyone...ROCK ONNNNNNNN....

Big N and others....dont worry... aap khatar mein ho ( you are in the line) and next number is yours... i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....

[10102007]

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

[kd2008]

Spec,

Could please analyze PW data from Q3 2011?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

I didn't see it in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Data-Analysis

Thanks a bunch!

[mygctracker]

Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.

Friends, I was out on lunch, following on iPhone in car. I came back, sat just for 5 minutes dizzy.

yes, I am 11/8/2007. I need two more weeks of movement. Any next movement whenever it happens will absorb me.

My heartfelt best wishes for all who got current.

My current take, just based on gut feeling is that next VB will be a mini version of this one, there will be two months movement to Jan 1st 2008.



rdsingh, you are the star of the day. God bless you.





Legislative action is the permanent fix to this mess. As a EB community, we can't forget the mess our EB3 brothers are in still, as well as EB2 for later on years can't still be predicted with total certainty.



dude have the big beer mug now, the one which is in your avatar on IV. Or have a physics marathon congrats.



gcseeker, if you are in Los Angeles, would be glad to have drinks and observe a minute of silence for both of us



Kanmani, thanks for remembering me. I ride on the good wishes of people, and this is what helps me. Thank you again.



Yes, I don't think quarterly SO etc model. And even if they do quarterly SO, who says they cant combine and get the best of both. Date movement is solely to make inventory, why club it with the confines of quarterly SO.

[gc0907]

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

[gcseeker]

10102007

Congrats to you buddy and I hope you get your EAD/AP soon .Hopefully it will enable you to visit your folks and beloved dog often.

Enjoy the day.

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

[tanu_75]

Congratulations to all who became current! It's been a long time coming for you folks. Hopefully we'll see this move into Jan 2008. I thought we'll have moved to here by the end of last year but I think USCIS feels more comfortable taking in batches of around 5-10k apps. So that's approximately movement of 4-5 months everytime they decide, which could be every 2-3 months. But one thing's clear, they are running out of applications and need to refill their inventory.

[nishant2200]

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

Thank you friend. You are most welcome, your thoughts are well appreciated.

Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.

I know how you feel. You are right on the edge.

I just think that 2008 might be a psychological barrier maybe for USCIS/DOS, and hopefully they break it soon.

That is why I really don't like to say specific gut feeling dates, there is always someone on the right side of it

All the best.

[pdmay2008]

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

Congrats to every one who are current.

This gives lot of hope for all of us waiting in the queue.

[srimurthy]

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...

[nishant2200]

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first

[dreamer]

Congratulations for all the folks down here who will be current with this Nov Bulletin....

[superdesi2100]

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.

[gc0907]

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first

Yeah...bcoz I am current . Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.

[soggadu]

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...

yes murty garu... i didnt know i wud get this news when i changed the avatar....

[nishant2200]

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.

superdesi2100, thanks for thinking of me. I know, as I said earlier sometimes, I am been running around, carrying a baggage of all sorts of papers, proofs, identity, salary, tax returns, certificates, marksheets, i-20, i-94, and what have you. I want to lie down peacefully and sleep one day when I get there, and not have to think of all this.

Yeah...bcoz I am current . Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.

Most of us here do this as a passion, not just for selfish interest. Although have to say, once really get GC, might go to Alaska and meditate with Polar Bears for a week.

[superdesi2100]

Re - reduction in the demand data from October to November - Ron Gotcher states - "Any reduction in numbers would have to come from the quota then in use (i.e., FY 2011)"

http://www.immigration-information.c...-2011-a-15460/

[kpt112107]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5572.html

EB2 - Nov 1st 2007