Vedu, look at the last few years instead of just the last year and 25K will appear better than average case scenario than worst case.
Originally Posted by vedu
Vedu, look at the last few years instead of just the last year and 25K will appear better than average case scenario than worst case.
I was replying to your prediction about forward movement in coming months. Veni's post is as always on the mark with all numbers. But again these are numbers ' we know'. My point is CO may have much better picture in terms of future demand than us. And if he is moving aggressively with some base line future demand then it's good news.
Last edited by suninphx; 11-20-2011 at 06:16 PM.
Ok I understand your point fully now. Yes CO definitely would know the exact breakdown of I140's every month that are still active. From there it should be a very simple estimation. USCIS knows for sure if someone goes back, I140 is revoked, porting etc, so they should be having a fairly accurate snapshot. CP is not significant. I believe based on this he had given the 01-MAR announcement whether there will be additional movement different law firms had different versions. Some said 15th Mar in 2-3 months and some said movement for some 2-3 bulletins. Iam sure when CO made that statement he was aware of the I140 approvals for Sep as well these things must be being published internally. Now really its upto him what figure he has in his mind is it 25K or 30K for approvals some buffer or no buffer. I would really hope that he puts in something in the VB itself like some kind of guidance. The more the better so that more people can get EAD sooner, I don’t think the agencies value this point of view their goal is to show lower backlogs and higher efficiency.
From my personal standpoint I have always maintained that 30K will be possible only if they do not start to clean out the I140 backlog. Now since they have started to clean out @ 2.5 times and reduced the backlog by 20K in just 4 months I definitely feel it will impact the SOFAD by 5K. On another note the cases for Oct filers would ripen up soon some have already started to get EAD/AP cards. Before the dashboard update I was quite optimistic that we could have another 2-4 month movement since the 30K mark was not hit (2500 per month flat model) but now seems like the mark is 25K and we seemed to have crossed it with some buffer. So next month could be a 2 month forward movement in the best case scenario to retrogression for actual approvals, the line could be drawn far back and adjusted for the Oct PWMB files Apr 15 to Jul 15th.
You guys are all just awesome ! Calculations are perfect and point to correct dates.
However, my take is that, CO will want to move the dates significantly further (probably somewhere near end of 2008).
Here are my reasons :
1. If HR3012 becomes law : SFO needs to be around july/august 2008 by FY2012 completion.
2. If HR3012 does not become law : Demand Data build up would take about 4 to 6 months from the date of filing.... As a result, my take is, CO will not see demand as much as he wants to see at this time. He will have to move the dates forward for next couple of bulletins more at the same pace of 4 months each...
Lets hope for maximum fwd movement... because retrogression at some point is inevitable(thinking 3012 not becoming law)....
I see what you are saying. Let's see how it goes. Thanks for your time and inputs.
I hope you are right. There are calculations and data and then there's gut feel which counts for a lot when you've been doing something a long time. I would really love to get inside CO's brain to see how its working coz god knows it is defying the calculations piece.. maybe its just a gut feel.
Zen, any predictions on how much retrogression will occur?
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received|| EAD/AP-Applicant: 3/26/2012 (combo card) first received
|| Now what?
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
General consensus is no earlier than summer 2007. Also, it will jump back in the Q1 2013.
Okay...just so I understand this correctly, we are talking about forward movement to around Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012, and the retrogression to around June-Aug 2007 by mid-2012, and then no further movement till Q1 2013 after which we expect to jump back.
How big will be those movement strides starting Q1 2013 - as substantial as the ones we have seen in past couple of months? My PD is EB2 Aug 2009 so based on this discussion, I think I will be able to file i-485 sometime mid-2014 instead of mid-2013 which I originaly thought was possible.
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
I think dates moving till Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012 is little over optimistic, although i would love it. I would expect till Jul 2008 Max by the end of this FY12 as some people got CP notice.
Leo; EB2I; PD: 11/01/2008; NSC; MD: 01/03/2012; RD: 01/04/2012; ND: 1/12/2012; FP Scheduled: 02/22; EAD/AP: 02/22; CPO email: 03/09/2012; GC 3/15/2012; what next???? India Trip????
Here is the link for the top 100 companies with most GC applications filed in Yr 2011 & 2010 etc.
http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Gr...-2011.aspx?P=1
I heard that Wipro is not sponsoring GC for EB2 & EB3 but i see Wipro stood 62nd place. Cognizant is Top 1 in the list. My company stood 90th place.
Old P.D : 07/08/2008 (Lost), New P.D : 05/27/2010; I-485 RD: 10/19/2020; I-485 ND:11/07/2020; I-765/I-131 RD: 10/27/2020;EAD Approval 04/09/2021; I485 Interview held on: 08/09/2021; FO: Dallas; I-485 Approved: 08/20/2021; I-485 J Approved: 08/24/2021;
i doubt that data ..as it mentions lehman brothers at rant 81 ......
Nov is almost a pipe dream. As you said, Aug 1, 2008 is more likely by next Sept
Last edited by vizcard; 11-21-2011 at 12:38 PM.
Almost all the Lehman ones are "withdrawn or denied" with a few exceptions.
My company is in the Top 25
Weird Infosys is not in top 100.
Probably, they are lying low after all the scrutiny and subpoenas
One of my friend got NVC fee notice for CP (PD Sep 2008). Does this mean next VB could move till Oct 2008???
Last edited by GCKnowHow; 11-21-2011 at 03:47 PM.
Not next VB...likely in the next 12 months.
Oct 2008- that is new and exciting... do you know what exact date in Oct? and when did he receive this notice.
Thanks
I'm sure two questions are lingering in everyone's mind: ( I definitely know few
-- When would the retrogression begin? ( if)
-- How far back could it go whenever it retrogresses? ( iff )
Any takers?
-- When ? I would guess sometime around March 2012 because by Mar 2012, the applications would change into documentarily qualified demand (considering it takes 4-5 months from filing)I'm sure two questions are lingering in everyone's mind: ( I definitely know few
-- When would the retrogression begin? ( if)
-- How far back could it go whenever it retrogresses? ( iff )
Any takers?
-- The farthest it would go back is August 1 2007 since they have implemented QSP and have wiped out all demand prior to August 07
Last edited by natvyas; 11-21-2011 at 03:37 PM.
That being said, next month VB will at least move to June 1st 2008. Which is 2.5 months.
I personally believe that the CO will advance the dates by another 2-3 months (either in one go or a batch of 2). The reason for this belief is that the "demand" will only be generated 4-5 months from the date of filing. The first lot was starting November which will turn into demand only in March. Hence I think we will make 2 more movements of alteast 4-6 weeks each. This way the CO will be true to his word as well.
From MURTHY'S NEWS FLASH DATED 28th OCTOBER.
EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February
In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.
Since the advancement of dates is based upon anticipated demand, once enough demand has materialized, the advancement will not continue at the same pace, and it may be necessary to retrogress the cutoff dates. It appears however that, for at least the next few months, the news in EB2 will be good.
Last edited by natvyas; 11-21-2011 at 03:47 PM.
Is this first hand information from your friend? If yes, can you check his PD?
Leo; EB2I; PD: 11/01/2008; NSC; MD: 01/03/2012; RD: 01/04/2012; ND: 1/12/2012; FP Scheduled: 02/22; EAD/AP: 02/22; CPO email: 03/09/2012; GC 3/15/2012; what next???? India Trip????
11th sep (not oct). Got the letter today.
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