EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kingjeremy]

Hi Adi,

First of all, a US visa is nothing but a permission to enter the US. It's needed only at the POE. Usually, the officers at POE check your latest valid I-797 original/copy before providing the I-94. So as long as you've a valid visa stamped on your passport, you don't need to worry. It doesn't matter even if that visa is for a different company. What matters is which I-797 you provide them at the POE. So in your case, show them the latest valid I-797 (ie, 2014) at POE and they should give you an I-94 valid till 2014. The only issue you may have in the future is that you may need to get another stamping done if you leave US after your current visa (ie, 2012) expires. As long as you stay with in the country you don't need to apply for the extension of status until 2014.

If I were you, I would try to get it corrected before I leave India. You may give it a try. Let us know...

Note: I'm not a lawyer and this is not a legal advice.

Agreed....I want to get this resolved rather than travelling on my old visa.....won't have to deal with this nonsense till 2014 (hopefully I'll get my green card by then!)

On another note, I am a big fan of this forum....you guys are super cool and super helpful. I appreciate all your responses. I won't clog this forum with any more non-gc posts except for posting the resolution (once and hopefully if resolved) so that others may benefit. VFS is so little helpful in providing info and there's nothing except a generic statement on the embassy website (in case of errors, please visit your vfs center or the consulate).
Cheers, Adi

[vedu]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.

The USCIS dashboard has two months lag. Also, in case of ROW, I-140 and I-485 are allowed to be filed concurrently. So, hopefully, the significant I-140 backlog showing up on the dashboard is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report (?) Regarding significant increase in PERM filing/approvals, that itself may have caused significant I-140 backlog, which again hopefully is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report. Thus, the 48% increase in I-485s you calculated makes sense.

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.

The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

[rdsingh79]

Teddy and other gurus,
Based on approvals we are seeing in fy 2012, can we say with certainity that this year quarterly spillover is being implemented this year. If so, what is the date we can expect for EB2IC when retrogression take place.

[vedu]

Teddy,

I tend to respectfully disagree with your analysis. There are two reasons for this. First, I believe that many of these cleared I-140s are already absorbed in 2011. Second, if you compare new I-140 receipts for the last few months against the same months in year 2010, you will notice that the numbers have significantly reduced. This will compensate for any increased efficiency of USCIS in clearing ROW I-140s.

All and all, I believe that this year's SOFAD will be at least same as last year's SOFAD, if not more!

The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

[nishant2200]

Now we are in business.

Ok, So national trend of 140 backlog is now nearing the 15k which we all agreed earlier USCIS might be comfortable with. It is currently at 17.5k.
- Texas Service Center is still the guy doing the cleaning act, while Nebraska is doing great. No wonder in the 485 processing also, for everyone, not just EB2IC, TSC is the one that is slower.
- Now this sharp downward trend is shown for Aug and Sep 2011, wherein the PD date movement of EB2IC was stopped, and the 18k visas left which CO had informed, was completely absorbed by all other categories (EB1, EB2ROW, EB3, EB4, EB5) and EB2IC was stopped. To counter this, I don't think USCIS is really doing concurrent 485 pre-adjudication alongwith 140 for concurrently filed applications. They are supposed to do this ideally, but they don't have manpower or will on it, and hence I am seeing that a approved 140 does not necessarily mean in few days 485 approval. So some effect of this will trickle down starting right now. On trackitt, EB1 especially is whining about their 485s being stopped artificially while EB2IC getting date movement and approvals. BUT now I also see they are beginning to start getting approvals, this is the trickle effect I am talking about.
- I do think that new incoming applications for this year will be lower though as compared to last year and previous years, and that will balance out some of the monster of this backlog.
- As posted on first page by me, SOFAD expected around 25k already. Now, even this 25k can be equivalent to 30k SOFAD in function of good feeling, here's why: Post July 2007 are people who were bare naked, no EAD, hence the concept of demand destruction, and also now that we agree that porting is worst case 2.5 to 3k expected, not the huge 6k. Coupled with above expectation of less incoming applications for immigration benefits.
- Note that the above backlog reduction figures are for last FY, this is not any reaction of USCIS to the new 2012 FY agressive moves by CO, so we should not think that since CO started moving dates aggressively, USCIS is hell bent on stopping that, just based on this, not yet. Positive thing is that inspite of such trend by USCIS, CO has eagerly done QSP and moved dates not as one single BTM in panic mode, but with QSP, given approvals and moved dates in 3-4 month batches patiently.

what do you guys think.

The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

Teddy,

I tend to respectfully disagree with your analysis. There are two reasons for this. First, I believe that many of these cleared I-140s are already absorbed in 2011. Second, if you compare new I-140 receipts for the last few months against the same months in year 2010, you will notice that the numbers have significantly reduced. This will compensate for any increased efficiency of USCIS in clearing ROW I-140s.

All and all, I believe that this year's SOFAD will be at least same as last year's SOFAD, if not more!

[leo07]

Got it. Thanks!

No logic to the date I just want to see forward movement.

[veni001]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.

vedu,

Hopefully we will have Q4 PERM data published later this month to get a better picture for FY 2011.

Based on Dashboard data, below my observations ….

i-140:
USCIS was able to process more 140’s in sept’11 compared to any other month in FY2011. This could partly due to the fact that EB VISA numbers are not available for later-half of Sept’11.

Aug-Sept’11 processing volumes confirm backlog reduction (to some extent) for EB1 & EB2ROWMP at the end of FY.

FY2010 i-140 receipts = 77,280
FY2010 i-140 completions = 73,746
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 25,563

FY2011 i-140 receipts = 81,678 (6% increase)
FY2011 i-140 completions = 91,418 (24% Increase)
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 23,185 (9.3% decrease)

FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)

If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

EB5:
FY2010 i-526 receipts = 1,955
FY2010 i-526 completions = 1,534 (21.5% less)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 1,125

FY2011 i-526 receipts = 3,805 (~100% increase)
FY2011 i-526 completions = 1,943 (~27% Increase)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 3,347 (~200% increase)


What this could mean for FY 2012 start compared to FY 2011?

I-140 backlog more or less same
EB1 backlog = almost doubled
EB2ROWMP backlog = more or less same
EB5 backlog = ??

If we assume similar to last year demand and processing for 140/485, means less SOFAD for FY2012 how much less?

Considering EB1 and EB5 backlog at this point I would say ~10k less compared to FY2011.

[GhostWriter]

Veni, thanks for the analysis. One thing to note is that the "all other pending" category reduced by 6.4K but the "awaiting customer action" increased by 4K during FY'11 (hence a net reduction of only 2.4K as you noted). Is this second category for RFEs ?
Sep-2011 shows the biggest jump in this category over last two years.

FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)
If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

[veni001]

Veni, thanks for the analysis. One thing to note is that the "all other pending" category reduced by 6.4K but the "awaiting customer action" increased by 4K during FY'11 (hence a net reduction of only 2.4K as you noted). Is this second category for RFEs ?
Sep-2011 shows the biggest jump in this category over last two years.

GhostWriter,
That's my understanding, unless someone tell me otherwise.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Veni.

GhostWriter,
That's my understanding, unless someone tell me otherwise.

[DonDron]

Does this mean we might not see any further movement in the priority date at all? or it will be slower than expected? or no impact at all?

[TeddyKoochu]

@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.

[TheTexan]

Oh man that sucks! Sorry for ranting..

[suninphx]

@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.

If we are saying there will be 25000 SOFAD this FY and avg. density of 2500/month then visa issuance shd happen for 15 Apr 2007 + 10 months = feb 15 2008. Why are we still stuck in ' somewhere in Jan 2008' for our prediction?

[TeddyKoochu]

If we are saying there will be 25000 SOFAD this FY and avg. density of 2500/month then visa issuance shd happen for 15 Apr 2007 + 10 months = feb 15 2008. Why are we still stuck in ' somewhere in Jan 2008' for our prediction?

It is not perfect even Apr 15 to Jul end is 8.5K even without PWMB. Then its 2500 per month and you know that Jan 2008 is the heaviest. I intended to say end of Jan. Feb 15th maybe slightly ahead in that regard, otherwise you are right 2.5K * 8 makes it Feb 15th . To make it perfect we have to distribute 16.5k (25-8.) K @ 2.5K per month this gives ~ 6.5K which is 01-Feb-2008. IMHO downgrading SOFAD to 25K from 30K is quite centrist after looking at the I140 trend.

[suninphx]

It is not perfect even Apr 15 to Jul end is 8.5K even without PWMB. Then its 2500 per month and you know that Jan 2008 is the heaviest. I intended to say end of Jan. Feb 15th maybe slightly ahead in that regard, otherwise you are right 2.5K * 8 makes it Feb 15th .

For me somewhere in ' jan 2008' open a wide range of ' 1-31 Jan' and then there is no way to read your mind to know that you meant Jan end. And sure it's not perfect hence we are use term average.

[TeddyKoochu]

For me somewhere in ' jan 2008' open a wide range of ' 1-31 Jan' and then there is no way to read your mind to know that you meant Jan end. And sure it's not perfect hence we are use term average.

Agree with you completely, my representation was not clear , let’s have 01-Feb-2008 as the cutoff date representation with 25K SOFAD. We should see the next VB that will be a litmus test to sense the direction. The dates may advance significantly for intake if and only if HR 3012 is becoming the law.

[suninphx]

Agree with you completely, my representation was not clear , let’s have 01-Feb-2008 as the cutoff date representation with 25K SOFAD. We should see the next VB that will be a litmus test to sense the direction. The dates may advance significantly for intake if and only if HR 3012 is becoming the law.

Based on numbers 'we know' you may be correct when you say movement will be less than 2 months. But my gut feeling is CO has better idea than us in terms of numbers and hence dates may move till end of Jun 2008 in next two bulletins. My primary driver for this gut feeling is that I have not seen such aggressive move by CO in recent past. And mind you numbers 'we know' were never supporting even the move which happened till date for this FY. So let's see how this goes. It's going to be interesting. I am sure like us CO is also curious to know 'real demand' going into 2008.

[nishant2200]

Ok, I agree with Teddy on above posts. Let's not catch them at number by number, the general essence is agreeable.

25k is centrist view between doomsday 20k and best case 30k for SOFAD.

I also agree with CO being cautious with HR 3012. At the very worst I think if it does become law very late into the FY, like say in ending Q3, or Q4, it might at least get the category current for maximum intake.

[vedu]

Veni,

Thanks for your analysis. It's hard to argue with you since you have numbers to back up your analysis.

vedu,

Hopefully we will have Q4 PERM data published later this month to get a better picture for FY 2011.

Based on Dashboard data, below my observations ….

i-140:
USCIS was able to process more 140’s in sept’11 compared to any other month in FY2011. This could partly due to the fact that EB VISA numbers are not available for later-half of Sept’11.

Aug-Sept’11 processing volumes confirm backlog reduction (to some extent) for EB1 & EB2ROWMP at the end of FY.

FY2010 i-140 receipts = 77,280
FY2010 i-140 completions = 73,746
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 25,563

FY2011 i-140 receipts = 81,678 (6% increase)
FY2011 i-140 completions = 91,418 (24% Increase)
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 23,185 (9.3% decrease)

FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)

If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

EB5:
FY2010 i-526 receipts = 1,955
FY2010 i-526 completions = 1,534 (21.5% less)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 1,125

FY2011 i-526 receipts = 3,805 (~100% increase)
FY2011 i-526 completions = 1,943 (~27% Increase)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 3,347 (~200% increase)


What this could mean for FY 2012 start compared to FY 2011?

I-140 backlog more or less same
EB1 backlog = almost doubled
EB2ROWMP backlog = more or less same
EB5 backlog = ??

If we assume similar to last year demand and processing for 140/485, means less SOFAD for FY2012 how much less?

Considering EB1 and EB5 backlog at this point I would say ~10k less compared to FY2011.

[vedu]

Teddy,

In the hindsight, I do agree with you for now regarding 25000 SOFAD. But I consider this as the worst case scenario.

@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.

[suninphx]

Veni,

Thanks for your analysis. It's hard to argue with you since you have numbers to back up your analysis.

What was the ball park SOFAD figure for last FY? ( Or actual figure if we know that already )

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on numbers 'we know' you may be correct when you say movement will be less than 2 months. But my gut feeling is CO has better idea than us in terms of numbers and hence dates may move till end of Jun 2008 in next two bulletins. My primary driver for this gut feeling is that I have not seen such aggressive move by CO in recent past. And mind you numbers 'we know' were never supporting even the move which happened till date for this FY. So let's see how this goes. It's going to be interesting. I am sure like us CO is also curious to know 'real demand' going into 2008.

The cutoff of 01-Feb-2008 is really for actual approvals. That in no way prevents CO from testing the waters as much further as he likes that also quite true, you are absolutely right on that. Also I agree the point that we are at today nobody really thought quite literally however you would agree that there is a huge degree of discretion with CO on this and a huge degree of unknown even for CO on what will come out. If 25K was the mark he had in mind he has certainly overshot that. All calculations are entirely on how many people will finally be approved where the resting point will be will always have speculation embedded in it from our side and discretion from CO on the buffer he wants. Refer to Veni's post for some detailed calculations. With regards your question last year’s SOFAD was guesstinmated at 30K that how this figure came about, it will be only confirmed by the DOS annual report.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Teddy. Also SOFAD of 25K sounds more reasonable assumption than 30K. Though each year is different, below are SOFAD numbers for EB2-IC (including the allotted quota) from 2008-2010. 2011 is awaited but people on this forum have estimates between 25-30K i think.
2008 - 26,466
2009 - 13,151
2010 - 21,761
Average - 20,459

@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.