EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

NVC receipts are for those who opt Consular processing for GC as opposed to AOS. Consular posts usually send out fee receipt notices much in advance.

What does receiving an NVC receipt mean? At what stage do we get NVC receipt? Could you please clarify?

[leo07]

Guys, please ask all non-urgent questions in appropriate forums/threads so that our moderators have less work in cleaning up this thread. I understand that this thread has more visibility and you have a reason to post on this thread. Including this message of mine

[Tomtuat]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

Hi Adi,

First of all, a US visa is nothing but a permission to enter the US. It's needed only at the POE. Usually, the officers at POE check your latest valid I-797 original/copy before providing the I-94. So as long as you've a valid visa stamped on your passport, you don't need to worry. It doesn't matter even if that visa is for a different company. What matters is which I-797 you provide them at the POE. So in your case, show them the latest valid I-797 (ie, 2014) at POE and they should give you an I-94 valid till 2014. The only issue you may have in the future is that you may need to get another stamping done if you leave US after your current visa (ie, 2012) expires. As long as you stay with in the country you don't need to apply for the extension of status until 2014.

If I were you, I would try to get it corrected before I leave India. You may give it a try. Let us know...

Note: I'm not a lawyer and this is not a legal advice.

[RRRRRR]

No worries. But it's worth trying PP though, I have heard CIS processes some times. You have nothing to lose trying, you'll get your check back if they tend to process in regular.( minus any attorney fees of course )

Thanks Leo for your reply

[gkjppp]

Good evening all, this is my first post, i am fan of Q's Blog. so registered today. i got few questions.

1.I dont recall i read 2009 (EB3 and Eb2)total perms are 33% of 2008, is that true?
2.2nd half of 2008 market was bad,what was total EB2 count after march 15,2008.
3.my PD is 03/16/2010... applied for 8th year ext last month.client was not willing to provide client letter. EVC model, submitted Office Badge/approved Timesheets/letter from Vendor/PO between my employer and Vendor. fingers crossed, waiting for H1 renew. last year also i got 1 year ext/ based on 140 approval with client letter 11 months / renewalble contract.

Thanks
GKJP3

[leo07]

Hi gkjppp,

Welcome aboard.
(1) I'm not sure if 2009 is 0.33 of 2008, but it's certainly down( significantly). It's probably 0.33 of 2007/6 may be.
Here is a link where you can see(play with) the numbers: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

(2) Calculating, just EB2 numbers is tricky. So people tend to take all perm numbers and multiply it with 0.70 to get EB2.

(3) shouldn't you be receiving a 3 year extension of H1B based on your 140 approval? ( dumb me don't know about consulting )

Best!

[gkjppp]

Thanks for the update Leo07

[vizcard]

So another 2 weeks till the madness starts again . Hopefully dates move to May 15

[leo07]

Not to quiz you, but why would you think(hope?) dates will move to May 15th 2008?

So another 2 weeks till the madness starts again . Hopefully dates move to May 15

[leo07]

No worries. If you look at the link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
spec provided some excellent analysis and examples to calculate what you need.

Thanks for the update Leo07

[imdeng]

My thoughts on future density:
1. 2008 is as dense as 2007. About 2500 per month. There may be more demand destruction in 2008 - no evidence as yet.
2. No evidence that latter half of 2008 is significantly less dense than first half of 2008 - just about 20% less dense based on PERM data
3. 2009 is about 60% of the density of 2007 and 2008. Around 1500 per month.

These numbers will evolve of course as get more data.

1.I dont recall i read 2009 (EB3 and Eb2)total perms are 33% of 2008, is that true?
2.2nd half of 2008 market was bad,what was total EB2 count after march 15,2008.
3.my PD is 03/16/2010... applied for 8th year ext last month.client was not willing to provide client letter. EVC model, submitted Office Badge/approved Timesheets/letter from Vendor/PO between my employer and Vendor. fingers crossed, waiting for H1 renew. last year also i got 1 year ext/ based on 140 approval with client letter 11 months / renewalble contract.

[Momster]

Hi everyone,

This is my first post - I just joined today. I've been following this blog since about a month and I'm a fan. So much so that I don't visit any of the other websites/blogs. You guys have been doing a fantastic job of bringing clarity to the whole GC process - thank you!

A little bit about me- my husband's PD is early Jan 2009 EB2I. I got interested in the whole GC process after I got a job offer which eventually got rescinded since I had reached my own H1B max out date (well, I have less than a year left which isn't enough time to start my own GC process apparently).

Feel free to delete this post since it isn't related to calculations. I just wanted to introduce myself

[vizcard]

Not to quiz you, but why would you think(hope?) dates will move to May 15th 2008?

No logic to the date I just want to see forward movement.

[suninphx]

My thoughts on future density:
1. 2008 is as dense as 2007. About 2500 per month. There may be more demand destruction in 2008 - no evidence as yet.
2. No evidence that latter half of 2008 is significantly less dense than first half of 2008 - just about 20% less dense based on PERM data
3. 2009 is about 60% of the density of 2007 and 2008. Around 1500 per month.

These numbers will evolve of course as get more data.

While later half of 2008 is not as thin as popular notion but then 20% less is also sizable reduction I would think.

[GlimmerOfHope]

Hi everyone,

This is my first post - I just joined today. I've been following this blog since about a month and I'm a fan. So much so that I don't visit any of the other websites/blogs. You guys have been doing a fantastic job of bringing clarity to the whole GC process - thank you!

A little bit about me- my husband's PD is early Jan 2009 EB2I. I got interested in the whole GC process after I got a job offer which eventually got rescinded since I had reached my own H1B max out date (well, I have less than a year left which isn't enough time to start my own GC process apparently).

Feel free to delete this post since it isn't related to calculations. I just wanted to introduce myself

You can start your GC process now also, however before your 6th yr runs out, you will have to get PERM as well as I140 approved, if both are approved then u can have your H1-extended for 3 yrs. It will be a gamble though. A good immigration attorney should be able to handle your case. GL.

[dce.deepak]

Friends,

My pd is May 08 and I am planning to file a new labor and I140 retaining old pd. Can you please tell me what happens if lets say my new I140 gets approved in 2013 (random year) and current priority date has moved to 2010 by 2013 . Would I still be able to capture my old pd of 08 when I file for 485 in 2013 even though current pd by then has moved well ahead to 2010 with all 2008 cases greened.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Friends,

My pd is May 08 and I am planning to file a new labor and I140 retaining old pd. Can you please tell me what happens if lets say my new I140 gets approved in 2013 (random year) and current priority date has moved to 2010 by 2013 . Would I still be able to capture my old pd of 08 when I file for 485 in 2013 even though current pd by then has moved well ahead to 2010 with all 2008 cases greened.

Yes you can as long as your old PD hasn't been rescinded. You can find out if it has on the USCIs status check page with your receipt number.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I have already posted this message in the related forum "Discussion of bill that remove the Per Country Limits HR 2161, HR 3012, HR 3119". But I just wanted to share it on the prediction-calculation forum since this forum has the maximum traffic. Just wanted to draw attention of those who have not voted yet for HR 3012 and S 1857 or are not aware about them. I will remove the post soon.

Two more co-sponsors for HR 3012.

Rep. Jesse Jackson (D-IL)

Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)

There are total 8 co-sponsors now for this bill.

Also, found this message on ** regarding HR 3012. Looks like they are really utilizing the backdoor channels.

At this time there is just one public action item mentioned on the first post of this thread. Pls make sure you are part of it.
Lot of work is going on that cannot be made public for obvious reasons. We all want the bill to pass ASAP.

Get more friends involved. Spread the word for more participation in the absence of new action items.

[imdeng]

Voting is good - but the best way to help the bill is to write to your senators and house representative. I wrote hand written letters to them and received replies too - vague replies - but still that tells them that there is support among people who will one day have the ability to donate to them and the ability to vote for them. Please write letters in support of HR-3012 and S-1857. Do your bit.

Just wanted to draw attention of those who have not voted yet for HR 3012 and S 1857 or are not aware about them. I will remove the post soon.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Voting is good - but the best way to help the bill is to write to your senators and house representative. I wrote hand written letters to them and received replies too - vague replies - but still that tells them that there is support among people who will one day have the ability to donate to them and the ability to vote for them. Please write letters in support of HR-3012 and S-1857. Do your bit.

I am in agreement with you. In fact, I also wrote and sent the letters and similarly got vague replies. But not everyone can or will write letters and that is the only reason I asked people to vote for it and make their voice heard in whatever little way they can. Sure, writing letters is the best thing and I sincerely wish if more support can pour in for these bills in coming days.

[ashokapex]

Hi Friends,

any one has any idea about EB2 06 June 2008? do you think Jan 2012 bulletin ?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hi Friends,

any one has any idea about EB2 06 June 2008? do you think Jan 2012 bulletin ?

You should be current in Jan 2012 or Feb 2012 bulletin probably. This is my educated estimate.

[Momster]

Thanks, GlimmerOfHope. I am looking at all my options.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Found these interesting.

http://www.blueseed.co/

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...ling-away.html

Also, found this news on Oh Law Firm Website.

11/18/2011: DOL Inspector General Reports Foreign Labor Certification Frauds and Need for Enhanced "Integrity" in Foreign Labor Certification Processing

This report which was issued only three days back emphasized tightening of "integrity" in foreign labor certification management. The Office of Foreign Labor Certification has already increased number of audits and supervised recruitment for PERM processing, and this report of its Inspector General is likely to further affect the labor certification adjudication process negatively in the future. Employers, beware!

Looks like, there will be more audits and even bigger backlog for PERM processing.

[kingjeremy]

Hi King JERMY,

I was having same 2 I-797 when i applied for visa in CHennai consulate.. I have a question for . DId you give both the I-797 when you were interviewed to the visa officer & also the person who checks your documents online.

The reason i am asking is this. When i went for my visa appointment, they intially verified the first I-797 (which was valid till Jan 2012). then i gave them the new I-797 ( valid till Jan 2015). SHe made sure both are from same company and then she verified my new I-797 also in PIMS Then she wrote on my application that i ahve DUAL I-797 and the validity date.

When i met the visa officer she saw that in my application and asked me for both I-797 . and when i got my passport i have visa stamped till 2015.


To answer second part of your question. IF you loat your original I-797 . you can get curtosy copy from your lawyer. he would have it( ususally USCIS sends 2 copies these days.one courtesy copy and one original one). you can use it for getting I-94 till 2014 if you are going to come with your 2012 visa

hoping hve answered your doubts. if you have any more let me know

Thank you all for your replies. I did not have access to my computer the last day or so and wasn't able to reply.

Mesan - yes, I gave a copy of my old 797 and my original new 797 to the person who checks the documents (and puts in a folder). She asked me why I was reapplying for my visa as I already had one (am I nuts to do that?). I told her that I am applying for an extension based on my new 797. She nodded her head and gave me back the documents in a packet. I realized that I made a mistake by giving a copy of my old 797 and prior to the interview with the Visa Officer, I removed the copy of my old 797 to avoid any confusion. Interview went smooth - the cute visa officer was friendly and chatty....asked me basic questions but did not ask me for a copy of my old 797.....but looks like the person in charge of printing stickers screwed up and gave me a second visa based on the old 797. Not sure who does what and who must have made this mistake.